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76
AsymBacGuy / Re: Best Vegas casino to play Bac
« on: April 14, 2020, 01:44:46 am »
My "best  (or not) Vegas casinos to play bac" list is based before this fkng Covid-19 infection. Just curious to see what will happen afterwards.

Wynn

Nothing special about the two tables put in the main room. Minimum bet is $100 and no peeking at cards is allowed.
Better is the high stakes room but the action is generally low.
Cocktail waitresses are the Vegas cutest (and now we know why)


Encore

Pretty place to play bac and personnel is very courteous there.


Venetian

Along with Palazzo and Palms, Venetian offers the best bac Theater action in Vegas but there's just one bac table outside the hs room. Do not know why but many bac players prefer Palazzo's theater.


Palazzo

Astounding number of live tables over there but many offering the fkng "tiger bet" that increases the house edge.
The P. bac theater is the best in Vegas and I guess most pros like to play here. I've seen players wagering up to $2000 and being right more often than not. No one smiles or tries to be emphatic. They just wait and wait and wait and wait.....

Palace Station

One of the best places to play baccarat situated in West Sahara av. very close to I-15. Several tables and a small theater. True is that most players do not know what they are doing, thus a good solid strategy would be to bet the opposite side. Try the "Salud" mexican food. 

Mirage

Only hs room offers baccarat. Nice environment but generally very low action (that is low opportunities to make money).

Caesar's Palace

It's the only place in Vegas (probably around the world) where a "old" double side table stands directly after the lavish hs room entrance. Generally a good action with $200 or more min limits. Hs room restrooms are the most luxury toilets in the history of gambling (Montecarlo super privee apart).
There's one (or two) bac tables outside the hs room (min bet $25 or $50) where I've met the most unpleasant employeers ever.
(Probably CP casino likes to set many records...not forgetting the most expensive buffet in Vegas is CP Bacchanal)       

Paris

For some reasons I like this casino and its lavish hs bac room too. Especially if they keep dealing shoes containing unidirectional patterns :-)
Some bac tables in the main room.


Bellagio

One of the very best places to play baccarat in Vegas. A couple of bac tables having a minimum betting range going from $25 to $100 depending upon the hour and the day, mostly working by late afternoon. Almost always the hs room provides plenty of action on their main 11 (hope to recall rightly) bac tables.
Unfortunately it seems that Bellagio bac customers are not accustomated to flush the toilet after use. No jokes, odds you'll join a unfleshed w.c. are higher than 50%. Speaking about asymmetricity... 


Cosmopolitan

I've never seen any action on their $300 minimum bet bac tables. Time to lower the minimum bet?

Aria

Another wonderful place to play hs baccarat in Vegas. One of the few which offers a free snack pit. A couple of bac tables stand in the main room having a $25 or $50 minimum bet almost always opened.

MGM

I was invited to play there but, lol, I couldn't find in the infinite MGM space where the fkg hs bac room was.   


Rio

I think there are 5 or so bac tables getting a quite interesting action. It's not infrequent to see players wagering fair sums over there. Definitely a good place to play baccarat.
Hs room is always empty.

Gold Coast

There's no other Vegas casino getting more bac action then GC anytime and at any day of the week. A paradise for any live bac player providing anyone have solid lungs to endure the dense cigarettes smoke. Most serious players like to play here.

Palms

Another off Strip casino where baccarat is baccarat. Many live tables and a huge Theater. Do not forget Palms buffet, one of the best in Vegas.

Red Rock

Located at Summerlin, a west LV community, it's a nice and pretty well frequented casino.
Not a huge bac action, despite several bac tables are offered.

Rampart

It's another Summerlin casino that offers an astounding entrance surrounded by palms and plants and that has recently added two or three bac tables having a $25 minimum bet. Even though the clientele average age is around 75 y.o., the air is so filled with cig smoke that sometimes it's difficult to breath.



as.

77
Related But Not Related / Re: Hanging out.
« on: April 13, 2020, 10:59:16 pm »
From a guy having an italian genome I'd expect better than that.  ^-^

as. 

78
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 13, 2020, 10:55:03 pm »
Exactly and it's not a coincidence that I've started this thread mentioning Kashiwagi and not only because he was one of the biggest high stakes bac player ever.

as.

79
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 12, 2020, 09:00:52 pm »
Imo it's only the connection of various patterns happening along any shoe that can make this game beatable.
Connection means the relationship working among different situations (r.w.'s) that show up along any shoe.
In this way we are not betting toward getting a steady state for long, instead to get a given state change after certain states not belonging to our multiple r.w.'s plan had occurred.

Nothing wrong to "ride" homogeneuos or shifted patterns, providing we have a solid reason to do that.
For example, if many asymmetrical hands provided only Player hands (thus inverting a sure general math advantage favoring B) future hands will be more likely to be symmetrically placed, hence any P bet payed 1:1 will be better than any B bet payed 0.95:1.
The argument by which future hands will be more likely placed on B side as "it is more due" is ridiculous. Any missed math opportunity having a low frequency of apparition is a missed opportunity for B side, period.
But we know that such situations arise by a quite low frequency thus we need more frequent occasions to put our money at risk.

Any shoe that baccarat's gods can provide is formed by multiple pattern steps, name them as runs, homogeneous patterns or whatever.
Now casinos will make their business by knowing that itlr our plans will get a lesser amount of homogeneous (easily detectable) patterns than any other situation. Moreover and from a strict math point of view every our bet is EV-, thus we'll surely go broke.

Sometimes shoes will provide easy betting situations (long runs, long chops, strong predominance, etc) and that's the main strategy 99.9% of bac players rely upon.
Unfortunately this is a short term favourable occurence.

More interesting is the fact that no matter what will be the future results distribution, some random walks will get an advantage or, better sayed, that some r.w.'s do not dictate to bet anything unless certain conditions are met. Some conditions are easily detcetable and others are more intricated.
If this way of thinking would be flawed, dispersion values wouldn't be affected by such kind of selection.

To get a practical example, think about how many 1-2 and 1-3 situations or BB consecutive doubles are coming or not after a given amount of hands dealt.

as.

80
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 06, 2020, 09:57:48 pm »
Difficult to answer without getting enough informations.

I think a predetermined plan must be set up simply by precise arithmetically solutions related to actual situations. Without those we're not going anywhere, imo.

Say I want to bet Player two times at resolved hands #35 and #36 after hands #1 and #23 have all shown Banker.
General probability will dictate that my probability of success will be 0.4932 x 0.4932, that is I'll lose both bets 25.68% of the times.
But if such hands will not involve an asym situation math favoring B side, the probability to lose is no higher than 25% and probably some card distributions favoring P side are lowering such percentage, hence my two consecutive bets will be EV+.
Is this predetermined plan going to get me an advantage? Of course it isn't.
Maybe those trigger hands were not involving an asymmetrical situation, thus slight enlarging the probablity to get one right on my selected bets, thus lowering my p.o.s. And vice versa.

Taken the problem by another perspective I could argue that the probability to get all Bankers on hands #1, #23, #35 and #36 is quite lowered as I'm considering distant outcomes.

Thinking this way I could build infinite random walks just to see whether my many 4 hand-patterns will confirm or not the general probability to happen.
But it's only the quality factor on the triggers chosen that makes the difference and not a relationship between two very different models not considering the "how".

as.

81
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 05, 2020, 11:06:58 pm »
Think that no way a card distrbution working into an asymmetrical model can get symmetrical results for long and at various degrees. So in some sense and in order to build a long term plan we are compelled to wager towards asymmetricity. Unrandomness enforces such asymmetricity. 

Statistically speaking, it's just the number of runs (whatever intended) that confirm or not the randomness of our sample.
Since you can take for granted that live shoes aren't random produced, we are forced to evaluate the number and the probability to get asym results per every shoe dealt.

We know that card distributions can produce infinite results, yet the probability to get something is endorsed by restricting outcomes that tend to go beyond given points and we know that the best way to limit the results is by classifying them into 1, 2 and 3 situations.

Transforming into math such probabilites, we know that 1=50%, 2=25% and 3=25%.
Of course when wagering B side 1 probability is lower than 2 and, at at a lesser degree, 3>2 and the oppposite is true about P side.
Nonetheless and from a strict bet selection point of view, such asym values won't get much of a difference.

Best example is by considering my up #2, spots where we'll win first by hoping for a B single as it's lowering the general B>P propensity as itlr previous BB trigger must involve a kind of already worn-out asymmetrical force (providing BB-B gaps are close). Whether such asym math force hadn't acted yet, probability to get another B hand after a BB pattern is generally endorsed.

For the same reasons any 3 event will be followed or not by another 3 event and the general probability will be always 0.25%. Yet the actual probability is quite lowered or raised in some shoes and dependent on which random walks we choose to follow.

as.

82
I can support every single post here.

The fact that a gambling problem cannot be strictly resolved by mathematics doesn't mean gambling games are not beatable.
Especially after knowing what Lungyeh sayed, that is that we can decide how when and how much to bet.
A luxury only baccarat provides.

as.

83
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 03, 2020, 09:05:23 pm »
The highest majority, not all but the highest majority of all players will not capitalize on the opportunities that are being presented by the shoe and then when they do they are so convinced  that's how they can beat it

True, yet they do not realize that profitable opportunities won't come out around the corner.
That's why casinos entice players to bet every hand dealt, a sure recipe for disaster.

as. 
 


84
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: April 03, 2020, 08:39:16 pm »
Hi Lungyeh.
It's very very very likely players won't build long term profitable random walks (that is r.w.'s getting very low variance) by simply assembling the outcomes of the three derived roads I'm referring to (beb, sr and cockroach r).

And considering bead plate (placing outcomes in columns of 6 hands each) doesn't make the job. Dispersion values applied to such mechanical road are adhering to expected situations, that is to an unbeatable world.

Imo to get a long term profitable plan we must get rid of many unnecessary hands, those tending to surpass certain cutoff values that can easily hurt our strategy.
And from a strict statistical point of view, profitable situations won't arise so often. This because a supposedly unrandom world (the only one cause that make us long term winners) wil be quite diluted.

Imo the only way to beat baccarat is by considering strong asymmetrical random walks applied to a slight asymmetrical model as baccarat is.

For example, the situation where "infinite" PBB patterns show up in succession is one of the simplest event we should look for.
No matter how many P hands come between a PBB pattern and a new single B hand, we know that our plan starts after a precise situation happened. That is a sort of compromise between the most math probability to get another B and the very very slight propensity to get the opposite hand (P).

Vast majority of card distributions will place asymmetrical results on this plan, not necessarily strong favoring one event or the other one.
Of course it could "easily" happen on some shoes that the same asym situation will go on and on, meaning that our asymmetrical strategy will be canceled by an unlikely card distribution transforming a steady asym world into a seemingly symmetrical model.

Later some thoughts about derived roads.

as.


85
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: March 31, 2020, 10:21:10 am »
Moreover could we connect in some way the three derived roads in order to get a unique distribution (r.w.) where dispersion values are way lower than expected?
Obviously knowing that only when all roads dictate to bet the same side such new r.w. exists and, more importantly, is bettable.

as.   

86
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: March 23, 2020, 10:59:09 pm »
Now suppose that in order to build our new sequences, instead of considering normal BP results we use the blue and red spots of the three displayed derived roads (big eye boy, small road and cockroach road).
Again we decide to assign the 1 value to red spots and 2 to blue spots.
Then we sum the two adjacent numbers from left to right.

Do have those new sequences the same features belonging to the sequences derived by the original BP succession?

as. 
 



87
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: March 23, 2020, 10:06:28 pm »
Ties are a complicated issue as any method must get rid of those "unresolved BP hands".
Yet they exist consuming space and cards.
In addition ties are way more likely when 6 cards are utilized to form a hand.

I fear that shoes containing a lot of ties perhaps are less manageable when using a "fixed" plan, but it would take a lot of time to ascertain their real impact over the different registrations I've discussed here.

Surely after a tie future real BP probabilities change, very slightly maybe still they change.

It should be interesting to study how many cards are utilized per each shoe in relationship of the r.w.'s applied, for example.
Notoriously most likely winning hands are formed by only 4 cards then by 5 cards. When more cards are utilized to produce a hand a sort of dilution effect may come out.

Anyway I firmly believe that any valuable method, system or approach when dictating to bet B or P that side must contain a mathematical advantaged situation on the first two cards dealt.
Therefore if I passed 70 minutes to wait for a profitable situation and I'm betting Player, I want Player to show a standing or natural point and not a K-4 catching a third card 4 vs a Banker standing 7.
Of course we could win a hand as underdog (or losing it as huge favorite), I'd prefer to lose it being favorite.
 
as.

88
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: March 23, 2020, 04:22:55 am »
Dear friend, I'm just looking forward to play with you and Lung (and maybe few others), I mean serious money I know three of us get.

Let's wait this fkng Covid-19 stuff stops.

as.






 

89
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: March 23, 2020, 02:17:43 am »
Summarizing:

- no way you can find a long term profitable betting plan without speculating that outcomes are not perfectly randomly placed as random bac outcomes are unbeatable by a 1 billion degree. 

-  to ascertain outcomes are not properly random produced only place selection and probability after events tools can help you by strict scientifically accurate assessments. Some bac productions are better than others, meaning they involve a higher unrandomness factor.

- best way to take an advantage without suffering the variance impact is by looking just for one unit profit per a given amount of hands.

- no matter how's your strategy and which side you choose to bet, each set of two consecutive wagers must get a way higher 75% probability to win. Considering as Banker side as a steady advantaged option is one of the biggest mistake to make. Asym hands favoviring Banker don't come out so often, especially whether consecutively taken.

-  the game cannot be altered or predicted by human considerations, otherwise it wouldn't exist.

as.

90
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: March 22, 2020, 10:32:02 pm »
Making things in a more complicated way, we could set up many different r.w.'s utillizing a pace different than 1.
After all the general law of independence of the results should work no matter how deep we want to classify the outcomes, right?

Thus a BPBBPPBPBBBBBBPBPPPPBPBBPPB succession could be

1-2-1-1-2-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-2-2-2-1-2-1-1-2-2-1 (1 pace) or

1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-1-1-2-1 (2 pace) or

1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2 (3 pace)

Again summing the two adjacent numbers from left to right we'll get:

1 pace) 3-3-2-3-4-3-3-3-2-2-2-2-2-3-3-3-4-4-4-3-3-3-2-3-4-3 (runs: 12)

2 pace) 2-3-3-2-2-2-3-4-4-3-2-3-3 (runs: eight)

3 pace) 2-2-2-2-2-3-4-4 (runs: 3)

Skipping certain outcomes provides a better evaluation of the place selection impact, that is the main factor by which certain subsequences must be considered as collectives or not.
And naturally in this example the best indicator is the number of runs.

We should convert what others call "stop loss" or stop wins" cutoff points with the simple number of runs, especially if we want to disprove a real randomness.

Without boring to test many shoes, it's intuitive that a kind of asymmetrical force is acting along the way on the vast majority of shoes dealt, our task should be directed to spot the shoes where such asym force will be more likely to act on certain points.

Now let's sat we want to follow two opposite players, one player A wishing to parlay his bet up to 5 steps toward a new same number situation (being 2, 3 or 4) and the other one B wishing to make a progressive plan toward not getting same number clusters (up to 5 steps).

Player A will win anytime 5 or more consecutive homogeneous situations will show up (2-2..-3-3..-4-4.. 3-3, etc) and player B will win anytime a given number won't be clustered up to 5 times.

From a math point of view both players will get the same results getting different W/L frequencies.
In the practice things go quite differently.

as.   

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