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Messages - AsymBacGuy

#76
Exactly 8OR9!!!

Thanks for the link.

I start to think that in the Singapore case the cheat surpassed the supposedly "baccarat formula" power and related syndicate.
After all a method capable to overcome the odds in such a way should be sold at millions without risking the legal issues for many HS players would be interested to purchase it.

as.
#77
According to the numerous articles dedicated to the fact, there are some both unsound and interesting aspects.

First of all, why choosing Singapore do set up the plan, only Vegas would be worse.
Around the world there are casinos, at least in the short run, which are not worried about anything or close to anything.

Then, the plan was built by too many unnecessary risky steps.

If they were counting side bets, people use way better and unrisky plans to do that.
Moreover the new optical shoes show the cards dealt in the display so large that one peer could track cards at a far distance. And certain phones can register or utilize advanced softwares.

But I discard the side bets attack as in one article was cited that they were tracking both the value and the suit of any card. Then their profits were too huge to be reached just in a week of play, considering average edge and variance.     

The interesting part is that they placed their bets only at shuffle machine tables and of course the 'baccarat formula' calculated by an excel sheet opens the doors to a kind of magic "baccarat is scientifically beatable" world.
As well as those of the jail and of law courts in their case.  :))

as.
#78
Bally's Blog / Re: A few shoes and a bit of play!
October 31, 2023, 10:04:37 PM
If I had to test an approach the least option coming to my mind would be to use Evolution shoes.

At that site cards are so badly shuffled that it's very difficult to get hints about a "general" line of thought.

I suggest to test shoes coming from "shuffling machines" and/or preordered shuffles as someway we need the "randomness" factor to act for implementing more constant situations.

as.
#79
Actually I have the same thought, Adulay.

It's obvious that the probability to get something "homogeneous" (H) is lower than the probability to get everything else (D).

H<D and is a sure fact that 99.99% of bac players confide in crossing H events and not about D.

Now there are only few options to think to get a kind of advantage after knowing this H/D ratio:

a) setting up a plan capable to get the greater impact of D patterns, at the same time reducing the inevitable H clusters;

b) waiting for H clusters/predominance to happen then betting toward more likely D situations;

c) waiting for D clusters/predominance to happen then betting toward less likely H situations;

d) a mix of the b) and c) points. It's the algos action.

Alrelax stressed us about the importance to not trying to 'stop' a H pattern when "it seems to come out", a completely different thing than trying to get a H pattern around any corner of the shoe.
On the other end, the D world prevails and it's just the delicate assessment on how many ranges a given shoe is going to produce either the D patterns and/or the H patterns.

When in doubt (in our opinion this thing happens nearly 80-90% of the times) we shouldn't bet a fkng dime.

We can dissect the original BP production into infinite sub successions and D>H ratio still stands yesterday, now and in the future.

Nonetheless and when properly assessed in rhythm and frequency, the D world could produce LONGER streaks than expected and naturally it's stu.p.id to miss the natural H clusters hoping that the D model is always coming back by "precise values", a thing that cannot happen by any means.

as.
#80
KFB, It makes sense what you wrote.

For example, take the BPBPB...random betting for the entire shoe.
Obviously only specular PBPB...sequences hurt as almost any streak provides at least One winning spot.

Most winning and losing events will stop at low level values that tend to change in relationship of the previous pattern lenght, that's why is so difficult to win for long or, it's the same concept, to lose.

More later

as.
#81
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
October 24, 2023, 11:14:56 PM
If baccarat outcomes would be "humanly" detectable, the game would have disappeared a long time ago.
So we could conclude that the human power over the results is inferior than the normal (uncontrollable) fluctuations and of course there's still the HE burden.

So our mind can't get long term valuable hints about those undetectable situations typical of this game as we're facing a machine.
Moreover players' minds are biased by the current bankroll status, so hoping beyond the real probabilities to promptly recover a deficit or to try to get 'sky's the limit' profits around any corner.

And patterns our mind is looking for are quite different than baccarat patterns, so we need to deactivate a kind of "normal" ancestral process.
Only a third part tool can do the job for us, one giving a lesser damn about money, current financial status or other bighornshit as being lucky or unlucky for that session.

Baccarat successions

Bac sequences are affected by a kind of "dynamical" bias related to the actual shuffling but is quite difficult to be grasped as it isn't mathematically shaped.
So we have to approximate what most likely will happen by not taking specific patterns as triggers. And implementing other features.

Since we know well that a single mechanical approach won't do the job (for the actual variance issues), we could utilize two simultaneous approaches slightly differentiated but both exploiting some common triggers until quite strong deviations will happen. Then both will stop their action.
To get a long story short say I'm referring to long consecutive BR streaks (for example).

Obviously there's the problem to know which approach to use and we've seen that generally algo A performs better than B.

The choice of privileging algo A vs B came out from having ascertained that many shuffling machines provide a huge quantity of constant valuable patterns.
So if you are in doubt to pick up a casino to risk your money at, definitely choose a machine producer. Sooner or later you'll be able to spot the proper rhythm to place your bets.

Since such machines were deeply investigated by statistical experts that assured their random production by presenting complicated formulas, we may infer that algo A likes the randomness.
A paradoxical conclusion.

On the same token, preordered shuffled shoes should follow the same randomness aim, we have no reasons to think otherwise.

Since we never know about a given production, we better be ready to use the backup algo that in the vast majority of the times will take care of the job when the main algo seems to fall prey of the variance or just because it can't do any good for supposedly unrandom models.

To get an additional hint about how both algos move say they are particularly sensitive of the doubles positive appeareance...

as.
#82
There's some logic in Alrelax idea to split the shoe into sections.
Cards are asymmetrically distributed along the shoe, so it's virtually impossible to get univocal lines for long unless we play two or three patterns together (singles/doubles, singles/triples, streaks of specific consecutive lenght, etc).

But suppose the first hands of the shoe are:

B
PP
BBB
P
B
PPPP
B
PP

What are we going to bet at this sequence?

Notice that even at byb and sr road patterns are undetectable, the only decent line is the cr road where there's a constant single/double line.

About what happens next obviously we'll never know.

Out of curiosity in this sequence our algo A got a +3 unit (before vig) and backup algo -1 unit (plus vig).
So it seems that our algos like most those whimsical 'undetectable BR sequences' and for the next portion of the shoe we have no reasons to shift from algo A to algo B, so calling a kind of 'section' until there are signs that the algo A forecasting seems to deteriorate.

Naturally the Al's thoughts remain interesting and actually algos were partially built upon this.

as. 
#83
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
October 23, 2023, 12:03:27 AM
Thanks KFB!

Your comments seem to confirm our conclusions and we're very glad about that because we think you are one of the 2-3 best scholars ever met in the forums circus. 

If hands are not predictable in any way (and math tells us that), betting a lot of hands makes the casinos' fortune; if some hands are partially predictable (and some studies suspect this), betting many spots just dilute such advantage up to the point to directly fall into the EV- ocean.

Since the almost totality of baccarat players consider any shoe as a source of possible profit, casinos are pretty certain to extract a lot of money from them by levels far greater than the HE.

Algos are smarter than those players as they were built upon the average probability of getting profitable shoes, neutral shoes or unprofitable shoes in relationship of general values compared to the actual source of results, the initial patterns shape, the intermediate patterns shape, the asym/sym hands current ratio, etc.

Moreover they are instructed to put the brakes on even after a single losing spot, that is waiting  longer than what a human normally does.

And more importantly, they are totally insensitive to previous shoes' results and about the actual bankroll as they simply do not care a bit.

OoOoOo

It's true that everything can happen anytime and independently of the production source, yet itlr some values are slightly more predictable than others and they are quite dispersed along the shoe course.
But this propensity is not constant per any shoe dealt, so forming a distribution's curve slightly but more and more oriented toward the positive right side yet suffering some negative and sometimes harsh natural deviations.
In our opinion, such propensity is due either for a substantial defect of randomness or for a very very close perfect randomness reproduction. Two different random walks operating.

Once again we ought to remember that casinos' interest is to offer perfect random shoes where the HE and normal deviations will get their full value, thus giving no hint to the players.
But even unrandom shuffled shoes could be a threat for us as they tend to produce too whimsical result lines that not necessarily belong to more predictable patterns. But those 'unrandom' shoes provide several steps corresponding to a 'random' model. It's just the different rhythm that cares.

Basically and regardless of the two algos utilized, there are three different situations each shoe will provide:

a) Long shoe, that is a shoe filling many columns (so forming many singles and/or doubles with few or any long streak(s);

b) Medium lenght shoe where the single-double/superior streaks ratio is about 1 or close to 1;

c) Short shoe, that is the opposite a) situation, where few columns are filled and there's an abundance of consecutive streaks and/or lack of singles.

As KFB pointed out, it's slight less likely that after a given number of hands dealt a) and c) categories will all of a sudden shifts from a to c and vice versa.
On the same token, b) more likely category to happen MUST stay at a more or less same level of probability for superior times than the a/c classes, so producing many same lenght or almost same lenght streaks and again the clustering effect is of paramount importance.

Since any shoe is a world apart, such three different categories move in direct relationship of what happened in the previous hands of the same shoe, privileging the old clustering effect.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
#84
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
October 22, 2023, 08:52:17 PM
"Son all you payed is the looking price. Lessons are extra"

From The Cincinnati Kid movie

 
#85
Very good post!

I agree with everything you wrote and speeding up for long is very dangerous at this game!

as.
#86
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
October 17, 2023, 09:26:32 PM
Well, those shoes were coming out from the same (biased, IMO) shuffling machine.

And the interesting part is that the backup algo got specular losing sequences, confirming the main algo's good predictability.

The problem is that when big money is allowed to be wagered, machines are not utilized or we can't precisely know the card distributions' source.
Fortunately we have found a tool capable to approximate at best the various card distributions by increasing by one step (or two steps) the algos action.

More later

as.
 
#87
Great post!

Math can't be bypassed, yet there are some long term consistent players around the globe getting the best of many considerations Al made in his post.

After all we players are getting a minuscule part of what could happen at baccarat productions, so trying to focus about what is really happening could be an additional force to get a profit or to enlarge profits. Or, more likely, to reduce (a lot) the inevitable losses.

as.
#88
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
October 15, 2023, 11:23:16 PM
How many consecutive times an algo is expected to lose?

Unfortunately (and obviously) there's no a specific answer and that's why a martingale approach isn't recommended at any game even by playing with an advantage.

But there are other options to be considered, for example what's the more likely LW gap (LW, LLW, LLLW, etc) or WW, WL patterns when utilizing a deep bet selection.

Now there's a better possible answer and it's at the very beginning of any shoe dealt.
And when the selection is ultra deep, the beginning of the shoe corresponds to the total shoe.

In addition, differently than the basic way of utilizing a 0.75 probability now we'll just consider a "same class" clustering trigger, that is waiting for a searched specific trigger to happen and then "hoping" that another one will come out before the losing counterpart class shows up.

Here our last shoes played by taking care of the very first two bets the main algo suggested.

LL
LL
WL
WW
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW
WW
WL
LW
WL
LW
W(-)
L(-)
WW
LW
WW
WL
WL
WW
WW
WL
LW
WW
LW
LL
LW
LW
WW
LW
WW
W(-)
WL
WW
WW
LW
LW
LW
LL
LW
LL
LL
WL
W(-)
LL
WW
W(-)
LL
LW

(-): no second trigger showing up until the end of the shoe.

Summary

Total situations splitted in double W/L results =51

First W=28
First L=23

Second W=31
Second L=15 (5 hands not classified by lack of triggers)

WW=16
WL=8
LL=8
LW=14

Is this a short term positive variance?
No fkng way as the same results were registered after thousands and thousands of REAL LIVE shoes played.

Now let's look at the third trigger eliciting a bet:

W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
(-)
W
W
L
W
(-)
(-)
W
(-)
(-)
W
L
(-)
L
(-)
L
(-)
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
(-)
(-)
L
L
(-)
W
(-)
W
(-)
W
W
W
(-)
W
W
(-)
W
(-)

W=24
L=11

(-)=16

Check each of the 51 rows (shoes) and you'll see that out of 35 resolved situations per shoe, only shoe #2 provided a LLL sequence, that is a 1/8 expected probability.

Since those shoes were quite whimsically patterns shaped, we guess that the main algo while suggesting a general "more probable results flow" seems to make a very good job as no matter which point of intervention it picked up, more Ws than Ls are coming around even if here we haven't considered  the vig impact, anyway applied to a very low number of bets made per shoe.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
#89
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
October 15, 2023, 08:46:31 PM
That's interesting but I guess that playing by "sections" needs a lot of experience as very often the sections texture is too confusing to be valuably exploited.

as.
#90
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
October 15, 2023, 03:38:38 AM
Definitely I can't dispute your arguments Al, yet it's quite difficult to spot the favourable/unfavourable sections you've mentioned unless (IMO) we try to put the basis for a strict mechanical way of considering outcomes.

Betting frequency

Trying to be more right than wrong per every hand dealt is impossible and we're pretty certain that it's impossible either when betting half hands of a shoe.
For that matter we have tried to operate our algos by a betting frequency close to 1/3 of total hands dealt and itlr results were a disaster.

To stay put in the vast majority of the times is the key to have success itlr as just a single or a couple of hands that went wrong mathematically could transform a wonderful sequence into a horrible one. At both algos action, I mean.

Yes, quite often positive situations could last for long or very long but the negative counterpart  must be avoided at all costs, even though it will be slight less likely to happen.

After all, from a math point of view it's ridiculous to think that a EV- game could be beatable itlr and our algos know very well that. So they are built toward the maximum possible level of "safety", so putting more emphasis on not losing instead of winning (a lot).

Not every "low betting frequency" player will be a long term winner but 100% of long term winners bet very few hands per shoe. At least when they bet the principal amount they're interested to wager as the "illusion of action" is a common trait among real winners, capable to concede the HE at their lower wagers and able to exploit an edge at pivotal hands.

Without any doubt every soul betting more than 20-25% of total hands dealt is a sure pure loser and among this category maybe just one or two players are really defending their bankroll wisely.

The "experts" argument that people wagering rarely are just diluting their losing expectancy is almost always right but not 100% right. That's where our edge comes from.

Technical features

At a EV- game the best math move to win is not to bet many portions of our session's bankroll but to bet everything in one attempt (Bold Strategy).
Since we have ascertained that some baccarat spots are EV+ interwined in the EV- ocean, we might come at the conclusion that it's way better to bet a lot at rare spots than to dilute our wagers by fearing that unfortunate situations could come out and depleting our session's bankroll.

More on that tomorrow

as.