Mr Fitzmaurice is a straight shooter who has a good reputation for looking after consumers' interests.

His team of reviewers provide detailed test results, over an extended period, of a wide range of racing products, and a few non-racing products.

They are VERY forthright in their assessments and pull no punches!! As, indeed, they should.


http://www.bettingsystemtruths.com/


You'll find a few sheep (rated 4.0+ / 5.0) worth considering, and plenty of goats to avoid!


[NB:  Fisher Roulette proved to be a total dud, as you'll see.]

In UK:           

   
• 6 dogs to a race
• each dog races from a trap

In Aus/USA: 

   
• 8 dogs to a race
• each dog races from a box

Bots:

There are numerous bots available for backing/laying dog races.

NB: Users who leave them running unsupervised for extended periods have often returned to find their bank has been emptied by a bad run!!



Racing Systems:

Again, numerous products. Many are especially aimed at the UK races.

Caveat emptor !!!   A LOT of them are outright scams.  Or plagiarised from elsewhere and dressed up in a new set of clothes.

That opinion is based on several year's experience, and not made simply off the top of my head.

Arbitrage betting, in its simplest definition, is the placement of bets with multiple bookmakers at the same time.
As every bookmaker offers different betting odds for each player or sporting tournament, a punter can increase his chances of wining.

This is done through a picking of odds for one team at one bookmaker and its competitor at the other with different winning odds.

The punter will be able to win some profits as at least one team will win that match. Ideally, the odds should not have a vast difference as that can make the betting quite dangerous for an average punter; on the contrary, the betting odds should be closer to each other to help in gaining some profits.
Arbitrage betting, as compared to ordinary betting, contains high risk as placing multiple bets at different odds might result in serious financial consequences.

Additionally, a punter needs to invest extra money as placing multiple bets require money to be wagered on each betting option.

This makes arbitrage betting a difficult game that can only be understood by experienced punters with loads of money.
A novice punter, on the other hand, might lose out his entire betting money by dabbling into this trade; ordinary sports betting is more than enough for him until he learns some lessons of the trade.
[Source:  http://www.arbitragebetting.com.au/  ]

A couple of ways to use this set of tables:

http://www.punterslounge.com/tipster-competition/tipsters/league/all/2012/


1   Find the top 2 tipsters for a sport and bet BOTH their selections for the win using a dutch book.

2   Lay the selections from some of the worst tipsters, but check the odds before you do to take your liability into account!

High liability has killed many a punters' bank and wiped out their profits over several events in one fell swoop!! 

A very low risk way to profit from sports betting is called Match Betting.  For skilled operators it virtually becomes no risk.


For an objective overview:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matched_betting


A good starting point:  http://www.learnmatchedbetting.co.uk/


And these to fill in any gaps: http://www.learnmatchedbetting.com/      http://www.matchedbetting.co.uk/

For those to whom laying is a new phenomenon:

Here's a link to explain how lay betting works on Betfair:

http://betting.betfair.com/education/the-site/what-is-lay-betting-2-300111.html

It gives a useful overview of what it's all about.


Laying the favourite is quite popular (after some suitable filtering, of course) and Jon Burgess has written a very popular, and widely-acclaimed  ebook about how to apply suitable filters:

http://www.false-favourites.co.uk/


Important Principle

The lower the price of the horse (or event)  you lay,  then the lower your liability if it wins.

Example:

Lay a horse for a fiver  at 2.4 and it wins.  The winner receives from Betfair your fiver PLUS his/her winnings which is deducted from your BF account.

Lay a horse for a fiver at 92.4... Well, you DON'T...EVER!! Imagine how much your account is debited if it wins. Too risky just to make a fiver from the other person who is the backer.


Alternative To Laying

For those blocked from Betfair or other betting exchanges then backing all runners except the favourite is an alternative method.

Dutching software makes the necessary calculations so that whichever horse succeeds the winnings recover the total stake AND delivers the profit you specify.

Of course, if the favourite wins you lose the lot!!  So pick a false favourite carefully.

Search online for free and pay-for dutching  software options.

But if anyone wants to write their own dutching software say so, and then I'll post the formulae in this thread, otherwise I won't clutter it with unwanted info.

http://www.news.com.au/business/worklife/worker-injured-during-sex-wins-compo/story-e6frfm9r-1226538131527


The employer has to pay the worker for a voluntary activity that went wrong, even though it was NOTHING to do with her job!

The law is indeed an behind at times -- like in this case.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2249452/Nancy-Lanzas-chilling-instructions-babysitter-Never-turn-Adam.html?ICO=most_read_module

http://www.livescience.com/24479-bodies-predict-the-future.html

http://www.damninteresting.com/random-event-generators-predict-the-future/

Out of adversity...

http://youtu.be/fXynrsrTKbI

Whereas this cutting-edge Betfair trading program was once free, you now have a 14 day trial. 

Thereafter it's GBP20 for 3 months. GBP60 for 12 months.

That's a VERY modest charge for the massive amount of features and options.  http://www.geekstoy.com/


For those reluctant to pay anything,  JetBet from Stakesoft for betting and trading, offers 300 bets per month for no charge.

It runs under Windows and Mac AND LINUX!!

All three is most unusual!

Three comparable and reasonably-priced monthly/quarterly/annual subscriptions are available if you need to make more than 300 bets a month.  http://stakesoft.com/jetbet/

[Edit:  see also Cymatic in Reply #4]

Topic split from: Code experiments and function development for proof of concepts

---

Whereas I code in JustBASIC and VB6 I don't recognize  this code.

Which language do you use?

This topic has been moved to Moderators' Lounge.

http://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=438.0

It served its purpose. In fact, it was a reckless act of self-disclosure that revealed much about the character of thread-starter, Gizmotron.

For that person I shall remain "clueless" --  that being his/her/its opinion of me, for which I am grateful.

I am grateful because it provided a wonderful opportunity for many members to offer me their support in posts and PMs.

My sincere thanks to you all.

I present the following argument that I found recently, for your debate and discussion. [Got that, did you? It's not my article]

Feel free to tear it apart if needs be.

   
• If there is any internal truth we need to find it.
• If it's a flawed argument we need to know that too.
• If the consensus is that it's valid and sound I'll reveal the source. Otherwise it can simply wither on the vine.

Over to you...




Many roulette players tend to succumb to the idea that their chance of winning will increase immensely if they're betting on more numbers.

However, this is a wrong move if you want to win in the long term.

Yes, your chances increase in the short-term when you're playing multiple numbers, but short-term winnings can just as easily and quickly be lost again if you continue to pursue that betting strategy using multiple numbers.

You need to concentrate on long-term winnings if you want to strike it rich.


I will prove to you below through mathematics why that is so:



Let's assume you play 37 spins and each number on the wheel lands just once during those 37 spins. You are betting $1 on number 0 throughout all spins.

When the ball lands on 0 you'll win $35 ($36 - $1 = $35). But you'll lose $1 for each of the other 36 numbers/spins.

That means that after those 37 spins you've ended up with a total net loss of $1 ($35 won - $36 lost = -1$).

Now let's play that example through again. This time you're betting on 2 numbers during each of those 37 spins.

Let's say you're betting $1 on number 0 and $1 on number 1. When the ball lands on 0 or 1 you'll win $34 ($36 - $2 = $34).

But but you'll lose the $2 total bet for all other 35 numbers.

At the end of those 37 spins you therefore have incurred a total net loss of $2 ($34 x 2 - $35 x 2 = -2$).

We're going to raise our stake now, shall we? Okay, now let's say you'll bet on 10 numbers during each spin of those 37 spins.

You place a $1 each on number 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9.

When the ball lands on either of these numbers you'll win $26 ($36 - $10 = $26).

But you'll lose the $10 total bet for all other 27 numbers.

After 37 spins you've now suffered a total net loss of $10 ($26 x 10 - $10 x 27= -10$).



See how your losses mount the more numbers you play?

It's a mathematical certainty and the idea that the more numbers you bet on the higher your winnings will be is simply a misconception that doesn't work.

The unshakable fact is that you losses become exponentially higher the more numbers you play.

If you bet $1 on 20 numbers, you'll have lost $20 after 37 spins. There is nothing you can do about it.

It's been proven through thousands of records that the above is true in the long term and of course under the assumption that each number really lands on average once every 37 spins.

Betting on multiple numbers at the same time is a fundamentally wrong decision for long-term winning.


The perfect solution, however, is betting on only one single number and stick with it.

This extract is for sports betting. 

It's taken from Frank Belanger's Bookie Buster

Forumites might find something of value -- a different perspective, perhaps.

---

If you use Martingale, it will eventually deteriorate your bankroll, despite the fact that you have
been accumulating steady 1 unit profits over some time.

If you limit the martingale to 3 to 5 steps in favorable situations, you can still
make profits without severely damaging your bankroll.

A 3 step Martingale risks 7 units and a 5 step Martingale risks 31 units (1 + 2 +
4 + 8 + 16).

However, there is a way to use the martingale at sports betting in
order to perform very well.

The trick is to use a pre-determined series of Win/Lose games.

If you have a pre-determined Win/Lose betting sequence of 5 steps
(say W, L, L, W, W) what are the chances that you will be right on all 5
bets?

The answer is 50% (or 1/2) multiplied 5 times by itself, or 1 in
32.

That means that if you tell yourself that for the next 5 bets you will be
betting W, L, L, W, W regardless of the outcomes of the games, there
is 1/32 probability that you will be hitting all your bets right.

This is a very low probability.

However, the opposite is also true, that the probability of hitting all
your 5 bets wrong is also 1 in 32.

That means, that if you use a pre-determined sequence of W, L, L, W, W, by using a 5 step Martingale
betting method, you have a 31/32 or97% chance that one of the 5 bets will hit right.

Now this is a very high probability.

One important thing that you should know is that it is not unlikely to
get the exact opposite pattern: L, W, W, L, L even if it will happen 3%
of the time.

The fact is, if you bet your pattern (W, L, L, W, W)
continuously, statistically you should hit the opposite pattern within
the next 32 bets.

The result would be the lost of all your winnings.
We don't want this to happen.

So, the strategy will be to change the pattern after every winning
sequence.

This way you will be attacking the next 5 bets, with an
equal probability of 97% winning chances from session to session.

Two central elements in intelligent prediction and response are:

(1) how rapidly we can predict and respond to an event, and

(2) the amount and type of information we need for effective prediction and response. 

The conventional wisdom has been that the best results emerge from the reflective analysis of a lot of relevant data.

[SOURCE:  http://brainconnection.positscience.com/content/215_1 ]


Quite so.

In other words, before anyone rushes to snap judgements  and immediately posts this, that or the other won't work:


THEY SHOULD SET UP A TEST AND COMMUNICATE THEIR FINDINGS

OR WAIT FOR OTHER'S TEST RESULTS TO APPEAR


There's been too much negative posting thus far from those who seem to believe "there's my way and the wrong way".

That sort of belief is what underpins most of human conflict -- if you think about it.


Notice of Intent

So why shouldn't Moderators delete purely negative posts about others' ideas and methods, if those negative posts are NOT  backed up by transparent,

verifiable test data?

Spike has been warned to cease personal attacks immediately.

He is to play the ball and not the man.


Kindly inform a moderator if he posts any more personal attacks.  [Please be sure to mention the post number and the thread so we can follow up on it.]


We simply won't stand for that sort of behaviour on THIS forum.

Any more of it and he will thereby help provoke his own exclusion...

You have been asked to recommend a balanced portfolio of methods for a live wheel.

The player wants to be able to switch methods during a session.

A balanced portfolio will include:

   
• flat bets
• gentle progressions
• inside numbers
• some EC bets

What would be in your recommended portfolio?

I have cut'n'pasted the following:


Units needed: 8
Numbers played: 20
Minimum profit: 1 unit
Maximum profit: 10 units

1 unit on 0-1-2-3                                                                                  (corner, pays 1 unit profit)
2 units on 31-32-33-34-35-36                                                               (double street, pays 4 units profit)
1 unit on each of the following 5 splits: 8-11, 13-14, 15-18, 17-20, 27-30  (each split gives profit of 10 units)

See how ingeniously chaotic this bet selection is, both on the table, but much more importantly on the (European) wheel.

It favors the Tiers a bit but is nonetheless very well balanced.

The point here is to be chaotic and not evenly distributed.

If you want even distribution just bet Red or Black.

This system is better played with negative type of progression.

[The source:  http://www.roulette30.com/p/kavouras-bet.html]



I wouldn't hold your breath over the last line on the home page: MORE TO COME

I've been patiently waiting over 2 years and it hasn't come yet!!  (Another "Gunna"...I'm gunna do this; gunna do that...The world is full of 'em!!)

"The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." — Albert Einstein


As true as it ever was !!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Players need a 'circuit breaker' (losing all their money is the default setting!!) that cuts in to:

   
• make them stop what they are doing
• so they can assess what they are doing
• and also assess the level of greed that was involved in what they were doing

And if the sum of those introspective prognostications= my-method-kept-losing-but-I-kept-using-it-hoping-the-outcome-would-be-different then apply The Rule Of The Bleedin' Obvious:

STOP. DOING. IT 

Monsieur l'abbé, I detest what you write, but I would give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write. 

[Voltaire, letter to M. le Riche, February 6, 1770]


Voltaire must be spinning in his grave over comments written by the owner of a gaming forum about a member simply because the owner of the forum does not agree with what the member writes, and the methods that member espouses.

May that NEVER happen here.


This forum should be the place where ideas can be freely expressed, tested and tweaked without ridicule, fear or favour.


If we read something we disagree with we have two choices:


1  Express our thoughts politely and tactfully with consideration of the other person's feelings

2  Change the channel -- switch to another thread entirely and ignore the one that we disagree with.


How often is somebody hurt because of the WAY an opposite opinion is expressed? More often than not I would think.


For this to continue to be a happy, gentle and productive place two things need to happen:

   
• We all need to be sensitive and careful in how we write our opinions of others' ideas and thoughts. (Choose our words carefully as though we are the recipient)
• And us Moderators need to be vigilant and make it possible for YOU to continue to write...

Here's an interesting claim:


"Gradually, I developed a very special progression for this type of inside betting and with the help of my co-admin friend Teos (Ophis), I got a tracker of my holy grail bet.

Now, after testing various sessions of 100 of thousands of spins, with success,  I can say, I have invented a holy grail finally."


Details:  http://albalaha.lefora.com/2011/11/14/making-of-a-holy-grail/


I might add it's NOT for sale and the claim is not being made in a public forum -- so no vested interest in making false claims just to stimulate sales.



It begs the question: 

A holy grail is one thing; the holy grail is a different kettle of fish. 

So which is more likely to occur?

Pleased to note that the author is a recent member here:  Geometricsman2


http://crackingpi.com/exploring-random/cracking-roulette.html


It's very interesting to follow his current thinking in this blog:  http://crackingpi.com/blog.html

And, hopefully, he will share his thoughts here as well.

If you have a maths degree, or a solid maths background as part of a related discipline, then you'll be able to follow this.

If you don't then click away.


Saliu fully explains his formula:  http://saliu.tripod.com/Saliu2.htm

Fairbrother refutes it in considerable detail:  http://www.lottoposter.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=677&PID=1273#1273


Conclusion?

That's your call...!!

A good milestone reached on the journey to... (Anyone ever thought about the destination?)

Took about 5 weeks. Not bad.