There was a clip years ago of one of those hidden-camera prank shows, set in Reno or some other gambling hub.
Unsuspecting patrons would insert their cards and enter their PINs into a rigged ATM, and they'd wait for their money as they would at any machine.
This ATM, however, would not give them their money.

Instead, it would play a message, "Thank you for playing ATM roulette," and it would ask them to play again.     

This is really one for Bayes, when he has a moment.

Three requests:

1  Please could you explain LR in relatively simple terms so even the maths-challenged amongst us can have an understandable overview?  (None of the sites I looked at understand the word 'simple'.)

2  Please could you show how it may (or may not) be useful for trend analysis?  (With application to random numbers...perhaps...?? )


3  Please could you suggest any relevant software suitable for members here?

Possibly...

http://news.sky.com/story/1077839/exclusive-cvc-mulls-750m-gamble-on-betfair

Hmmm...$20 000 in 2 months...

Betting on single numbers.

http://www.roulettenumber.com/videos.html

Nothing to stop you emailing him with questions.

The obvious one being "If it's so good why bother flogging it for around $50. In fact, why flog it at all?"

I'm sure you'll think of other questions.

1  Use either the FireFox or Pale Moon (a portable FireFox) browser.

2  Install the No Script add-on

3  Tell it to forbid the sites serving you the unwanted ads.

Fairly simple to use. And wickedly effective!! 


Yes, there are other solutions but that does me fine.

Feel free to add your own solutions for others to pick'n'choose.

In a recent press release the Venezuelan-based PuntersParadise online casino has announced a limited promotion that should interest you.

Apparently, during any one hour of play during the 24 hours of  the first of April only, they will refund all losses to all male players in the morning and to all female players in the afternoon.

Here's an extract from the press release:

CEO Victoria Junior said "We've made so much money out of punters who think that roulette software is un-rigged that, as a matter of conscience, we'd like to give some back to them. Furthermore,  during our promotion each player will receive an e-book of failed roulette strategies that we have collected over the years by analysing players' methods."

Ms Junior said the challenge will then be for all the casino's players to come up with fresh, new strategies to try to beat the casino's software programmers.

"But they'll have to be very lucky," she said. "Our programmers continually update our in-house software to enhance our existing statistical edge."

This topic has been moved to Methods' results at TwoCat's request.

http://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=1361.0

Interesting to note serious horse racing punters maintain that a method must first be profitable with flat betting before it can be taken seriously, or taken further.

Why would that  principle not apply to other betting arenas as well? 

A maxim amongst share and currency day traders is that "the trend is your friend."

This is indeed a valid point given that emotions of Greed and Fear underpin market movements. Each strives for dominance every second the market is open.

But ball movements are not driven by Fear and Greed. They are driven by Mr Random.

And yet, as Gizmotron has clearly demonstrated, those movements will form discernable and trackable trends (uninfluenced by Fear and Greed) and that are just as friendly to exploitation.

Yet how can this be?  What is it that underpins trends in this instance?  What is the X-Factor at work?

Just wondering....   

Is there such a thing, d'you think, as a STRESS-FREE roulette bet?

If yes, then what are some of its characteristics?

[ We'd need to consider the type and source of the stress before answering, of course.]

Slow but steady...

Here's to the next 200. 

If you look carefully you'll see the Fallacy is alive and well here, in some of the methods posted!!

The following quote comes from:  http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

It should give us all pause for thought...


Gamblers' Fallacy


The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the "gambler's fallacy."

Thousands of gamblers have devised betting systems that attempt to exploit the gambler's fallacy by betting the opposite way of recent outcomes.

For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black.

Hucksters sell "guaranteed" get-rich-quick betting systems that are ultimately based on the gambler's fallacy. None of them work. If you don't believe me here is what some other sources say on the topic:

A common gamblers' fallacy called "the doctrine of the maturity of the chances" (or "Monte Carlo fallacy") falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of "systems" have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler's neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. — Encyclopedia Britannica (look under "gambling")

No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... — Probability and Measure (second edition, page 94) by Patrick Billingsley


The number of 'guaranteed' betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamics. — The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein

A Priest, a Doctor, a rich Businessman and a Scotsman were waiting one morning for a particularly slow group of golfers in front of them.

The Doctor shouted to them, "I've never seen such poor golf!"

The Scotsman chimed in, "Och aye! We ha' been waitin' for nigh on fifteen minutes!"

The Businessman called out, "Move it on you guys, time is money."

The Priest said, "Here comes George the green-keeper. Let's have a word with him."

"Hello, George!" said the Priest, "What's wrong with that annoying group ahead of us? They're rather slow, aren't they?"

George the green-keeper replied, "Oh, yes.. That's a group of blind fire fighters. They lost their sight saving our clubhouse from a fire last year, so we always let them play for free, anytime they want to."

The group fell into an embarrassed silence for a moment.


Then the Priest said, "That's so sad. I think I will say a special prayer for them tonight."

The Doctor said, "Good idea. I'm going to contact my ophthalmologist colleagues and see if there's anything they can do for them."

The Businessman replied, "I think I'll donate £50,000 to the Fire Brigade Benevolent Fund in honour of these brave souls."


And the Scotsman asked, "Why kin they no play at night?

Right here:

http://betselection.cc/sports-betting-forum/football-betting-daily-picks/msg7491/#new

The 7-day wonder seems to have died.

Usual story -- burst of initial enthusiasm that peters out when the "next best thing" comes along. 



[Edit:   In case you didn't realize we've got our own section for it...! ]

http://betselection.cc/the-pipe-dream/  ]

The Evaluation and Commencement phase is now UNDERWAY for any still interested.

Lots of ideas have come in during the Brainstorming Phase.

Anyone can join in, of course.

http://betselection.cc/the-pipe-dream/

Found On The Internet

Someone might be moved to try this.

Do let us know how you find it.


NB: I've sandboxed my download to check safety -- no nasties come in as well.


[This was the link: cfile229.uf.daum.net/attach/1173B4164A2538DA0AE0B7   Author unknown.]

Does random really exist?

Plenty of  ponder-points here, to get you thinking:

http://cameroncounts.wordpress.com/2011/08/31/does-randomness-exist/

http://www.askmehelpdesk.com/advice/t-12733.html

http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=246043


[Plenty more if you look.]


Let me explain why I started this thread.


The first link in particular presents a brief , but well-structured and well-explained examination of the phenomenon.
Points she raises I would have thought were worthy of comment from readers on this forum -- if only a knee-jerk reaction! 


The second link raises interesting and often thoughtful, detailed  discussion points that lend themselves as discussion catalysts here.


The third link offers some very challenging and interesting perspectives about random from physicists, and from those with an interest in physics.


I chose the links carefully to expose a range of views from different perspectives.


Given that roulette is generally thought to be based on random acts of the ball I thought players would have a vested interest in exploring random.

And given that "random" seems to underpin many of the bet selection methods already mentioned on the forum, I also thought a closer examination of random would be entirely appropriate.

Lesson No. 1

* U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000
* Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000
* New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000
* National debt: $14,271,000,000,000
* Recent budget cuts: $ 38,500,000,000

Let's now remove 7 zeros and pretend it's a household budget:

* Annual family income: $21,700
* Money the family spent: $38,200
* New debt on the credit card: $16,500
* Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710
* Total budget cuts so far: $3,850


OK. Now for...

Lesson No. 2

Here's another way to look at the Debt Ceiling:

Let's say, You come home from work and find there has been a sewer backup in
your neighbourhood and your home has sewage all the way up to your ceilings.

What do you think you should do, raise the ceilings, or .........

Just a thought...

Over 150 keen members here.

Goodness knows how many years of playing experience between us, plus high levels of expertise -- not to mention all the testing as well!

So why couldn't we all put our heads together and come up with consistent winning method or strategy we could all merrily use?

Surely there's enough expertise here.

[Or are there already too many egos who think they're right and everybody else is wrong, and the project would be dysfunctional before it even started?

Nah. Surely not! ]


Like I say, just a thought.

I'll go back to the pipe now...and dream on...

A couple of years ago I had extended correspondence with Hans, a German roulette player.

He spent a lot of time developing what became a "winning bet". From time to time he would update me with progress.

I was never crass enough to ask what the bet was. I took the view if he wanted me to know he would tell me in his own good time.

Sadly, I've lost touch with him -- you'll see why towards the end of this post.

But I've often pondered how he did it... and how he is faring...

For your information here are a couple of the emails between us.


The first email below is from Hans. It might stimulate a forum member to pick up the ball and run with it. (The red bits are my responses)
 
 

At 07:36 PM 16/06/2011
Yes. I have found the solution! I found, through Boolean combinatorics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combinatorics), optimal objects within roulette and have translated the solution into a winning strategy.

I found a complex bet that hits 90% of the time (within the probability space) which is unrivaled in any other game of chance.

As a matter of fact, I have uncovered a class of thousands of these complex objects that hit in the 90% range.

I tried the simplest one and reduced it to a set of rules. Then I put it to the test. It worked!

I had several casinos replace the wheel for suspicion of cheating.

They tried to spin faster, thinking I was using ball ballistics to calculate the landing slot.

The faster they spun the wheel, the more I won. It was pure math that brought the crushing defeat.


BRILLIANT!!!  WELL DONE!!
   
This is all I can say. I fear I am under surveillance and I will be moving to a new place, very soon.
I have been threatened now three times and realize when you take a lot of money from the casino, they will stop you at all measures.

My car was stolen and was found in a lake. My house was burglarized and my computers were smashed.

The night I was with a friend and then left to go to a party, he was robbed on the street and hit on the head.

I feel I was the target but last minute plans saved me. This cannot be a coincidence.

That is dreadful news, Hans. Ganz schrecklich.

I don't know what to say apart from telling you I'm VERY glad you're unharmed.

As you say -- not a coincidence. You must have taken a lot of money from them for this sort of reaction.

I certainly understand you moving to a new place.

At 09:52 PM 21/08/2011

Max,
I am now fully committed to my project. I have sold my flat. Mine auto is fixed (it was pushed into a lake!) but it is sold also.

I sold all of my computers. I have almost nothing of physical value. I quit my job. I told my friends I was going back home to help my sick mother in Sweden, but that was so no one would come looking for me.

I have several Swiss banking accounts but they are mostly anonymous and untraceable.

My ambition is to travel to every major European city that has a casino. I stay there in hotels for maybe a week at the longest. Then I move on the next destination.

After Europe, then comes Asia, then South America, North America, and so then back to Europe. The circuit begins again.

The goal is a simple. I will make, at a hour or two, only 1.000 to 2.500 euro per day and then leave, even spread the winnings at multiple tables.

Don't stay in one place for a long time.

This should be a small amount to the casino and unnoticeable. This will be static to them.

I will live a simple life.

At this rate, I will accumulate five thousand to ten thousand euro per week and funnel it all into the bank accounts.

I repeat this for five days a week, and the math is simple.

I will gain a million euro within two to four years. Here is the truth, do not ever win too much at any one time or place.

The casinos will and can make you disappear. I know because I was threatened and will not become the target ever again.

All my website will be shut down also. E-mail will be shut down by the end of the week. My journey begins next week!

Good luck with everything in life!
///hans

Presenting this to you in no way implies my acceptance or rejection of the author's ideas.

But it does offer itself to testing...

[Apologies for the layout. Took me ages just to get it to this point! ]


The Worlds Only Professional Roulette Player

Written by Ben Grant

When I was 25 years old I made a living playing poker. It was a much easier game back then, a
few years before it went mainstream and people actually knew how to play before walking into
a casino. Anyone with self-restraint and a quick mind for math could have made a decent living
playing poker in those days. I put in a 40-hour work week and was very strict about keeping a
log that included my playing time, as well as every other statistic imaginable.

I quickly learned that playing poker in Las Vegas was far more profitable than floating back and
forth between the few Ontario casinos that offered the game, so I spent most of my time down
there fleecing wealthy tourists and conventioneers.

I generally played for about seven or eight hours a day, and I always made sure to get at least nine hours of sleep a night,
but that still left me with a lot of time on my hands. I didn't drink, I only danced at gunpoint, and I wasn't going
to spend any of my hard-earned money shopping at marked-up boutiques, so I spent most of
that time wandering through casinos. While milling about one day in the MGM Grand, I decided
to check out the action at a very busy roulette table. That's where I met Harry, the world's only
professional roulette player.

You see, you can't be a professional roulette player – welll not for long, anyway. There isn't a
casino game with worse odds than the North American roulette wheel (except for Caribbean
Stud when the jackpot is under $90,000). Paying out at 35 to 1 with 38 numbers on the table,
the casino holds a 5.26% advantage over the player on every single spin. Unlike blackjack and
other card games, there is no method or skill involved to reduce those odds let alone turn them
in the player's favour.

I stood there watching Harry for hours. Most of the time he didn't put his
chips in play, he just kept them there in front of him, but when he did play, he generally won. I
just figured he was lucky, but I thought I'd ask anyway.

"What's your secret?"

He smiled with the corners of his mouth and responded, "I'm not playing the wheel. I'm playing
the dealer, and the dealer is psychic."  Then he winked.

This didn't make much sense to me. As far as I was aware, a roulette dealer had zero impact
on the results of each spin. Sure he fired the ball around the wheel, but there were so many
thousands of variables in play, even the dealer himself couldn't possibly know where the ball
would end up. Even if he did, he certainly wouldn't announce it to the table. I wouldn't have
though much more of it if it were not for the fact that the next day, while strolling through The
Flamingo, I spotted Harry at the roulette table raking in the chips once again.

He decided to take a break for a while so we headed over to the noodle bar to have a late lunch together.

I looked him up on my next trip to Sin City, and over a steak dinner at Binions, he explained his
secret to me.

He would wait at the table until three consecutive spins missed all of the following
numbers: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18, 20, 21, 25, 26, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36.

Sometimes it was quite a wait. As soon as this happened, though, his system was on.

What he now had to do was wait until one of the above-mentioned number came up. If a 1-6 or a 31-36
come up, he would play all 12 of those numbers on the next spin.

If a 10, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18, 20, 21, 25, 26, 28, 29 came up, he would play each of those 12 numbers on the next spin.

He maintained that his winning percentage with this method had him at a 4% advantage.

I tried to explain to him that his math made no sense, and that since a wheel has no memory, playing
those combinations still has him at a mathematical 5.26% disadvantage.

"You're right", he said, "the wheel doesn't have a memory, but the dealer does".

He then went on to explain his belief that the dealer, in his subconscious mind, knows exactly
where the ball is going to land on every spin. Further still, under certain circumstances, he
subconsciously influences where the ball is going to land based on his expectation of
probability or regression to the mean.

In other words, when the above-mentioned numbers do not come up for a period of three spins,
the dealer expects for this to be made up, and thus  influences the wheel on consecutive spins.

He added to this that his system didn't work on computer-based roulette programs, that there had to be a live dealer.

He also said that his system worked better when the dealer was unaware of the success he was having. It is for this
reason that he always moved from casino to casino and only played at crowded tables.

I thought this was a cute theory, but at the end of the day I couldn't accept the math. As far as I
was concerned, it had to be luck.

But what if it wasn't luck?

Could a roulette dealer really influence the ball with that degree of accuracy and not even be aware of it?

Is one's subconscious capable of breaking down that many variables? 

The dealer still needs to go through the physical act of spinning the wheel in one direction and launching the ball in the other,
with the precise amount of force and timing to achieve the desired result.

Harry had attributed his success to the dealer's expectations, but what if it was he himself who was unknowingly influencing the ball?

Could it be that the faith he had in his method was so strong that he was willing the ball into the correct slot?

If so, did Harry have a special gift, or could anyone with that much conviction manipulate the ball with that much success?

There is also the possibility that Harry wasn't controlling the ball at all, but rather the dealer.

It had to be luck though, didn't it?

I stopped playing poker for a living at the end of that year. My wife liked the tax-free money I
was making, but that kind of lifestyle as well as the travel back and forth wasn't exactly
conducive to family life, so she convinced me to seek more stable employment.

I said goodbye to Las Vegas and wished my friend Harry the best of luck, believing that the math would
eventually catch up to him.

Last year, my wife and I decided to meet up with some American friends of ours at the Grand
Canyon. My wife had never been to Vegas, and it had been about eight years for me, so I
insisted on staying there for a few days after our Canyon adventure to show her around my old
stomping grounds.

In the last few hours of our vacation, as we wheeled our suitcases through
the maze of the Caesars Palace casino, I spotted a familiar face at the roulette table.

There was Harry, perched behind a stack of purple chips, the world's only professional roulette player,
getting rich betting on the dealer's subconscious tendencies and defying math with every spin
of the wheel.

...ends

Hopefully, some of the "YES" voters in the poll will post a selection of methods here...

Using the spell checker is a form of quality control that helps make this a quality forum.

The spell checker is one of the three buttons bottom right, under your posting screen.



[attachimg=1]

This is a common strategy. 

Basically you bet several horses to win the race. Bets are structured so that whichever one wins delivers your profit AND returns all the bets.

Generally 2 or 3 carefully selected horses are sufficient to keep outlays to a reasonable level.

Bets are complicated to do even on a calculator, let alone pencil and paper.

So most punters use dutching software that is either standalone, or that's included as part of a bot or trading software.

Legally FREE and accurate dutching software is here:   http://www.horseracingsoftware.net/   plus a couple of other very useful programs.

NB: You'll find it's best to use prices over 2.00 for dutching to avoid a negative bet. 


A detailed examination of dutch booking is here:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_book