Quote from: witzi on November 07, 2014, 10:51:13 PM
Hi,
I'm sorry, my English is not so good, but I hope you understand me.
no idea whether the manager Excel is suitable for my problem.
Seeking actually a bot which I can transfer my EXCEL sentences in a LIVE online casino, is set there and the next number appeared in my EXCEL sheet is transferred repeatedly.
bg

witzi

Witzi, send a PM to Nickmsi.

He specialises in making Excel bots.

Wilkommen!

Vieleicht:

https://www.ablebits.com/excel-sort-worksheets/

und

http://www.datamanagerforexcel.com/

They are all in English but I'm sure you can translate them.

I hope they help with your request.

Quote from: vo rogue on November 05, 2014, 08:59:57 AM
g'day esoito  i would leave those without points out of your market, if your  factors for points allocation are strong,no pointers need to be taken on, you can reassess in future if no pointers cause you grief.

A good point (pun intended  )

I'll take your advice and see how things pan out.



i enjoyed good returns when framing my own markets using a points allocation for per tinant factors of form,why did i stop got married had no time for hours of pricing,i miss it,no better feeling when your 4-1 chance comes home at 20-1.

I once subscribed to a ratings service so I know what you mean about the undiluted pleasure when a value bet romped home at good odds. 

i know there's always a divorce option i miss the track.[smiley]aes/thumb.png[/smiley]

LOLOL...mate, having a happy marriage with the  'right' person is a better bet!  Can you not negotiate a day a week for your racing?

Thanks for your feedback -- very helpful.

re: Framing a market

I've now managed to convert my selection criteria into points per horse.

Then, based on the total points overall, I've worrked out how to convert each individual horse's points into a price.

Some of you might care to venture an opinion about one area of uncertainty that remains.

It's this...

In, say, a 10-runner race, only 6 horses might be allocated points.

The other 4 have zero points.

But given that every runner has a chance (albeit very, very slim in some cases) then

* should I allocate limited token-points to the other 4?

Or

* should I simply continue to leave the other 4 without any points at all?

*  And if you think each of the 4 should get points, then how many?


I ask because these three decisions affect the rated prices generated, to some degree.

5         PROTECTIONIST    8.40    3.00    
4         RED CADEAUX                 5.10    
12         WHO SHOT THEBARMAN    3.60    

Trifecta paid 1918.30

[NB:  These are tote prices.]

Drinks all round are on XXVV -- he can afford them now! 

For those wondering "why not just box the field?" the bad news is the outlay!

You'd spend 24 x 23 x 22 = the national debt of a small country.

Yes, you'd certainly get the trifecta.   

The payout -- unless you were extraordinarily lucky -- would far exceed the trifecta outlay.

If XXVV had one standout runner he particularly favoured (called F) he could take out 3 trifectas with F to run a place with his other selections (called S)

Thus:

F
SSSSSSSSS
SSSSSSSSS
--------------- = $72
SSSSSSSSS
F
SSSSSSSSS
--------------  = $72
SSSSSSSSS
SSSSSSSSS
F
-------------- = $72

Total Outlay = $216 for $1   Or     $108 for 50c

A considerable saving!

Running tomorrow:  Tues 04 November.

It's a huge field so it can tend to be a bit of a lottery, especially given that some of the runners haven't run the distance.

Anyway, a basic but useful form summary is here:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-02/melbourne-cup-2014-field-form-guide-sweep/5844790


A more professional summary, plus a framed market is here:

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/

Thank you very much indeed, Greenguy, for your suggestions. I appreciate the time you took to put that helpful post together. 

I've been using a program I wrote to calculate bets based on a very modest target per race, so that a recovery progression did not get out-of-hand too soon.

I'm not a fan of progressions but given the high strike rate(s) I felt it worth giving it a go.

And each recovery-bet also included a small increment added on to it so each race 'paid its way', so to speak.

I started with a bank of $25 and it now sits on $55.13.  The target set was a conservative 50c per race with a 10c increment added to each recovery bet.

At some point the target and increment will be increased slightly -- haven't yet quite decided by how much and when.  I'm pretty cautious in such things because I know how the dreaded run of outs can suddenly arrive and drain the bank if targets and so on are set too high!

Funnily enough 'd been wondering about framing a market, and I've been exploring the code needed to modify the software accordingly.

That's taxing the grey matter but I'll get there because, like you, I think that's a good way to move forward.

Thanks again.

Quote from: vo rogue on November 02, 2014, 01:58:31 PM
hi esoito,

Hi VR
A BIG welcome to you as a new member. 

Thanks for your interest and pertinent observations.


i would ask what is the average price of the winners,and from how many selectins is the 44% from.
say 44% win strike rate at $3.00 would give you a nice 32% profit on turnover.

The strike-percentages translate to a breakeven price of 2.28 (100/44) for win bets and 1.30 (100/77) for place bets.

So accepting smaller prices is the path to the poorhouse. Accepting better prices is the gold-plated path to unlimited wealth...   (He said drily.)

if this strike holds up over say 100 selections or more , you have a real goer.best of luck  that one[smiley]aes/lol.png[/smiley].

Ah -- and there's the sticking point, hmmm?   IF (yes, our old friend, the "conditional if" )...if it holds up...

However, although not wanting to publicly reveal full details, and at the risk of sounding over-confident (if not somewhat naive to some), I can confidently say that, given the nature of the selection method, it's likely to hold up indefinitely.

But having said that, and as we both know, the only certainty is uncertainty! 

Still, I've more than doubled the bank from 22 October to 02 November betting just 6 days for about an hour a day on no more than 5 races. So it's growing legs.

Interesting times we live in.

Thanks again for your input.

A question for the experienced horse race bettors:

If you developed a selection system that gave you about a 44% strike rate for wins and around 77% for places, what would be your reaction?

No -- I'm not trying to flog anything! Just curious...

Welcome! 

Lovely to see you join, and may your time here be happy and productive.

Spot on, Wannawin.

If I had something that made $2000 an hour, hour-in-hour-out I certainly wouldn't bother flogging it.

In this instance there's obviously good money to be made from selling to the desperate, the gullible and -- yes, -- the greedy.

And look at this little gem for one of the products:  "The software proposes two (2) numbers depending on the sequence of numbers shown on roulette. You bet and wait for them to get any of them in the next few spins."

They wisely avoid stating the numbers will arrive. So no prediction is involved after all. What a surprise.

Some might prefer to simply roll a couple of die and bet the 2 numbers shown "in the next few spins" thereby saving themselves the massive subscription costs.

The sales phrase "...quick and easy money..." sure has an appeal for some folk.

Those folk will do well to recall that saying about "If it sounds too good to be true then..."

Muggins.....Leapy....where are you?

It was getting interesting....

Quote from: greenguy on October 27, 2014, 11:53:04 PM
...sounds like Victor.

I won't say who it was.

But I will firmly state it was NOT Victor.

So no more impugning the man, thank you very much.

Good thinking, RTB.

However, not wanting to rain on your parade, and please don't take this the wrong way, but isn't your broad-brush idea pretty much what Victor is already aiming to achieve with his BetSoftware software?

You'll find statements from him about this on the forum.

But I could be wrong. (My wife will tell you it often happens.  )  But to me, several similarities were quite striking.

On the other hand, it certainly won't hurt for your plans to firm up and for your site to eventually appear.

After all, your ideas are well stated and will have appeal I'm sure.

In fact, the more responsive you are to coding requests the more successful you'll be. 

I've had experience in the past where the bot-coder kept dragging his feet. Getting the finished product out of him was like pulling teeth!  Never again.... <grrr>