Quote from: Jimske on April 12, 2015, 03:52:45 AM
stop and restart on a W 2, -2, 2 restart win 2 units..

That's not how parlays work, Jimske.  There's no "W 2, -2, 2 restart with 2 units.."; rather, it's W 2, -4, so now, down 2 units, we move one step to the right in Soxter's listed progression.

Beware of confusing "double wins" with "parlays".  Double wins are bets of the same size made twice consecutively, whereas parlays are of the "let it ride" variety, where all is risked in the attempt to procure two consecutive wins.  Double wins procure two units of profit, while parlays will net you three units of profit.  BUUUTTT, never forget that all unsuccessful parlay attempts effectively "forfeit" your initial win, whereas the "double win" play will have you break even whenever the initial win is followed by a loss.

Quote from: Jimske on April 10, 2015, 09:57:00 PM
All you need is a run of 10 or more to bust the prog.  Pretty easy to lose.

Even easier to "bust the prog" than you'd think, Jimske.

You see, my friend, with Soxter's parlay progression (or, frankly, any parlay method), the losses needn't necessarily come in "consecutive" fashion, and yet the player could still be in trouble:

W L W L W L.....this scenario is just as precarious (probably even more so) for the parlay player, because even though they've won half their bets, they'll find themselves going into step #4 of their progression ladder, having failed to complete either of the first three parlay attempts.

So it's not just consecutive losses than can hurt this player, but how the losses pan out in their current play is just as vital.  The player that is currently finding that second consecutive win rather elusive will not do well with their parlay bids.

Now, that all said, I happen to be a fan of parlays.  But I prefer to measure my "sense of timing" at this particular shoe and/or session BEFORE simply "blindly" parlaying.  In other words, what is my current strike rate AFTER any particular win?  Am I winning 2 bets in-a-row with any consistency right now?....If that answer is affirmative, then by all means, the parlay is an important part of my MM arsenal.

So MM becomes a bit like trending.....adjusting usages to the current conditions.

Say it ain't so, AsymBacGuy....please enunciate your true intentions.  I am always leery of members that delete their own posts, and so I'd prefer to read some clarification from you.

Quote from: Tomla on April 03, 2015, 09:14:34 PM
FTL is too streaky, zigzag the same, my guess would be that TBL would be most compressed?

Correct, Tomla, good job.

Singles and threes...the filet mignon of TBL...played correctly...let me repeat that...played CORRECTLY...and that means patient and disciplined triggers only...is absolutely GOLDEN.

The loss gaps, or losing streaks, or even the variance downturns, are at once both manageable and, even more importantly, readily recoverable.

You see, my friends, it's all in the "how you approach and, ultimately, manage" your preferred bet selection process.....that will serve as the ultimate solution to all of your Baccarat puzzles.

Jimske, you are a good man, and a smart one as well....heck, I'd venture as far to say that you're an adept Baccarat player, as well.  So let's "cut to the chase" here, if you will:

You are spot-on in your BP evaluation index of effectively "reducing the LIAR".  That, my friend, is the name of the game.  For the "secret sauce", if you will, of this game lies in the player's ability to both familiarize and then workaround the all-so-inevitable losing streaks/losses of their preferred BP method.

So it then becomes the player's responsibility to do whatever it is in their power, whatever it is in their control, to LIMIT LOSSES.

Then, there's but one question left:

Which BP process might serve that solitary goal best?

As I stated at the outset of this post, Jimske, you're a smart man and an astute player; hence, the answer should be clear.  (Sidenote:  Fact is, I think you already know it.)

Stay well.

All good questions, Jimske.

And they're all questions that every serious player has tackled, some multiple times.

The bottom line, IMHO, Jimske, is that all bet placements will perform relatively similarly.  Same W/L patterns and/or streaks and/or strike rates; so if one is looking for the "magic formula" bet placement, one will find only frustration.

BUUUTTT, let's not "throw the baby out with the bath water", shall we?  Just because all bet placements, OVER THE LONG RUN, will perform the same, does not preclude one from using their preferred bet placement strategy to their own advantage.

Look, everyone here (me, you, Soxster, Horus, Adulay, even Johno...EVERYONE) has their preferred bet placement strategy.  Why?  Because that's their own personal comfort zone, where they are MOST FAMILIAR with their BP's actions, both good and bad.  And then, given that familiarity, they build their own personal entry and exit strategies (read: to either bet or "no-bet") and their own personal MM strategy; all built around their familiarity with their preferred BP's and preferred attacks (read: playing) on same.

That, in a nutshell, is how this game is to be beaten, especially long-term wise.  By learning to master their own personal play, those characteristics, those necessities, will serve to overcome the house edge in the long run.  Not any one of them alone....no, it will take it all; the BP, the MM, the "bet vs no-bet", the entry/exit strategies, the LONG TERM VISION....it'll take it all, collectively, to put you over the top in this game.

Quote from: horus on April 02, 2015, 08:54:46 AM
One thing I have noticed which is a bit strange and I have seen other posters on different forums comment on it before as well is how the last portion of the shoe can often just completely go against everything previous. I have noticed that testing from several different sources. Obviously there is an easy answer....just don't play the last portion, lol. But it's strange none the less.....My success seems to come in short spells in both formats.

This is true.  It is inherent into the very nature of the game, just as in any EC game. 

It's what I like to refer to as the "unravel". 

And make no mistake of it, Horus, the very recognition of it is essential to the serious Bac player.  And to stay in step with the subject of this thread, it appears that Adulay is of similar mind, as he is consistently monitoring his "exit strategy" while he is playing his preferred trend, forever vigilant of its ominous "unravel" (good job, A).

Look, I realize that my bet selection process will do absolutely nothing to eradicate that daunted house edge.  I get it, and I've long ago comes to terms with it.

So I need a strategy, much like Adulay's, that'll see me get my money and then plan my exit.  Take advantage of my "10 minutes of good", maximize on those better portions of the shoe, and then back off, awaiting my next betting opportunity.  All planned and done in the name of minimizing the potentially-damaging...yet inevitable..."unravel".

Now we can begin conversation regarding the house edge.  Now, armed with solid entry and exit strategies, a consistent bet selection process, and, last but most certainly not least, a solid money-management plan (a shoe progression is considered as solid as they come, IMHO), and now the serious player can talk about overcoming that house edge; by utilization of their "collective" Player's Edges.

Stay well.

There's an old adage, Alrelax, and it reads something like this:

Protect the downside, and the upside will take care of itself.

Well, that is an axiom that I live by in my mode of play at Baccarat.

"Protect the downside"....the inevitable downturns will forever be lurking.  The question is:  How can I have those inevitabilities cause me the LEAST amount of harm, both to my bankroll and my psyche.

So I lowered my base unit sizes.

And, lo and behold, I have a much better, quicker, and more efficient RECOUP methodology in place.

And it costs me LESS to put it into play.  And so my recoup is, virtually, just as inevitable as that downturn was.

And so I am effectively able to eradicate those downturns in due time.

So, what does that leave me with, assuming I can effectively eradicate losses over time?

WINS, my friends, WINS.  The winning sessions, regardless of size, are PURE PROFIT.

"Protect the downside, and the upside SURELY WILL take care of itself"

Stay well.

Quote from: Bayes on December 11, 2014, 04:11:58 PM
Hi Gr8player,

Thanks for your input. I'm actually in broad agreement with you, although I have to add that consistent winning at any negative expectation game lies on a knife edge, and the devil is in the detail.

That's why my game is built both carefully and subjectively.  I've learned to trust myself at the Baccarat table, as I know that my goal...ALWAYS...is to put myself in the very best possible position to succeed.

I've learned to accept a win...any win...and I've learned to accept a loss.  I've learned to both acknowledge and accept exactly what I can and what I cannot control.

"Lies on a knife edge", Bayes?  Sure does.  So I'm ever-vigilant, and I never forget the fact that I am always just one bad bet away from losing more than I ever should at any time.

So you learn to survive and then you learn to adjust and, voila...you've actually learned to win.  Long term.  Success.

You learn that what you always thought and/or assumed was simply a "minor detail" is, frankly, anything but, and rather vital.  Case in point:  I've never made more money, calculated over the long term, than when I actually LOWERED my base units sizes.  Loosely translated:  The LESS that I bet (size-wise) the MORE dollars I'm able to procure over the long term of my play. 

Finally, Bayes, suffice to say that it all took a lot of trial and error and a vast amount of real table experience.  Most players, I'm rather certain, wouldn't or couldn't be bothered with even a fraction of what I ultimately went through to get my Bac game to where it is today.

But, in the end, I am convinced that that is true mainly because not everyone is seeking the same thing within their Bac games.  Everyone has their own approach, based, generally, on their own personal agendas and/or goals.  Just as the saying goes:  to each his own.

Stay well.

Quote from: Bayes on December 10, 2014, 05:54:00 PM
All systems, no matter how complex or ingenious, when you work through the maths, come out negative. It cannot be otherwise.

Hello, Bayes, I trust all is well with you.

You are absolutely correct.  All systems (geez, I detest that label), "when you work through the maths", will come up short.  No argument there.  The house edge is what it is, and leaves each bet with a negative expectancy.

But you might notice that I put into quotes the "when you work through the maths"....I did so, Bayes, for a reason.  I am of the opinion that the "math" can be altered or changed, if you will, or, at the very least, neutralized.  No, not in any "physical" sense, for I cannot rewrite the times tables.

But I believe that there are certain things that an astute player can do that can put the odds of long-term success into their favor.

I believe that our "Player's Edges", when utilized absolutely to their fullest potential and followed religiously, can serve as a conduit to that success.

Look....the casino measures their success over the long term.  It is only when the player looks at their play the very same way will they ever have any chance at their own long term success.

Only a long term bet selection (read: consistent); only a long term money management (read: session progression); only a long term unrelenting goal to survive the negativity (read: discipline); only a long term plan can ever hope to match or even exceed their (read: the casino's) long term plan.

It takes a lot, and most players simply haven't the gumption for it.  But I seek not to be a part of that majority, much preferring to quietly assume my minority position.  I work hard for it.

Stay well.

Sorry, Esoito, my bad....I meant no disrespect to the forum.

But I will not accept nor engage Mr. Rolex-Watch "via PM", in any way, shape, or form.  Absolutely out of the question...for nothing good could ever come of it, and there's certainly no such thing as "private" when it comes to Mr. Rolex-Watch.

If you feel the need to revoke my forum privileges, please know that I would both understand and accept your decision.

Stay well.


[Good man!  Thanks for that mature apology. Your privileges remain intact. Esoito.]

And, right on cue, here comes the Johno/Carlo/Egalite/Rolex-Watch.....internet troll extraordinaire.

You must be very proud of yourself, for nobody can sit behind their keyboard and disrupt every decent conversation that I try to have without regard for anyone else that I may be engaging.

That, you're darn good at....in fact, I think you were born to lie, cheat, and disrupt.

Very proud, indeed, eh, Johno/Carlo/Egalite/Rolex-Watch?

P.S:  I'm going to the grocery market in about an hour...care to follow me there, as well?

Quote from: Slacker on September 03, 2014, 09:03:29 AM
I think she's trying to say that the Grail is the player. i.e., it's the personal attributes of the individual which bring success, not any system which they use.

That is exactly her point.

I've been espousing the very same thing in these forums for years.

The so-called "grail" can come to you only from within.

Those that are waiting for someone to post a complete step-by-step bet selection method that'll beat Baccarat are in for, well, a rather frustrating wait, for it will never happen; mainly because, my friends, IT DOES NOT EXIST.

No static bet selection method will ever beat this game.  And, even if there were one, this game would not, could not, exist.

No, fellas, I'm afraid it takes so much more than just a static bet selection method and/or a static MM plan.  Neither one will provide the long term success that we all seek.

Rather, one needs to adopt a certain approach to game, a mentality; that sees them utilizing their God-given BRAIN at the tables at all times, where they're able to adjust their bet selections and their bet sizes based upon certain CURRENT CRITERIA.  Criteria that THIS SHOE, or PORTION THEREOF, is lending itself to.

Knowing when to back off (read: "no-bet") and knowing when to press forward; knowing when to exit a shoe and/or session; knowing how to accept a win (any win) or even pare a loss....these are things that only the correct mind-set, the correct mentality, the correct approach, combined with all of the very necessary patience and discipline....therein, my friends, deep within ourselves....lies your very own "grail".

As always, I wish it for all of you.

Quote from: muggins on September 01, 2014, 03:09:32 PM
That is the only thing that matters.  Proving yourself to people who post the same old arguements in an attempt to make you post the way you bet is not important.

This happens a lot and Albalaha is a master of this without contributing anything of substance to any forum he is part of.

Before you object to what I have written Albalaha, please show me one post of your 1000+ posts on this forum where you have given any indication by demonstration of how you bet.   You have a HG don't you?  Therefore you don't need these forums anymore.

Hello, Muggins.

I've nothing personally against Albalaha or anyone else that chooses to accept the house edge as unbeatable.  It is, after all is said and done, the easiest of affirmations...one only need to do the math.

But I also believe that if you choose to visit these gaming forums then one should do so with an open mind, and maybe be just a bit less cynical in their gaming beliefs.

Lastly, Muggins, as to my "posting the way I bet"....I've been doing that for years in these forums.  But, I hope you can understand, it doesn't matter.  For the "way I bet"...the way I approach this game...is MY WAY and works FOR ME.

I will expound upon that as time permits, but, for now, suffice to say that it is more a matter of each player's own responsibility to learn exactly what it takes to get the better of this game for themselves, as opposed to simply reading up on someone else's method.

Stay well.

Ahh, my friend, and there it is....the same old, same old argument of:

"Show me where it holds up statistically, even with your edges"

I heard that same refrain every other day at the Wiz's site, and finally decided it best to simply cease the argument by withdrawing my membership there.  In two words:  their loss.

I have no numbers nor statistics that'll satisfy you, Albalaha.  Sorry. 

I have only numbers and statistics that satisfy ME.  So be it.

Best not to beat it to death, my friend; it'll lead only to your frustration.

And, IMHO, a person who chooses the casino's edge over their own wants no part of any frustration.

Stay well.