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Messages - monaco

#91
Mixed / Combined Progression for EC's (after deviation)
November 22, 2012, 04:58:44 PM
Progression after deviation:

I've used this combined progression on EC's after seeing a strong imbalance.
You would have to decide which correction triggers you are going to look for before using it.


The progression:
Try to get the 3 unit win-goal through mainly flatbetting first -
1-1-1-2, a win on any of these & re-start the progression.

If lose 4 in a row, ie. 1L-1L-1L-2L, I'll bet 2 again, if it wins, bet for another win at 2, then re-start (you'll be -1unit).

If it loses, this is what you will have: 1L-1L-1L-2L-2L [-7units]


At this point, I consider that I've just witnessed a strong imbalance, on top of which there is another losing sequence, so now I'm prepared to risk a limited positive progression to try & get back to zero or close.
I play a kind of Oscar's Grind, but with a regression built in.

Like Oscar's Grind I'll move up on a win, but after 2 losses in a row, I'll move down 2 units.
Max bet should be 5 or 6 units.


Once I hit those first 4 losses in a row, I'm only looking to get back close to zero.



There are 2 things that I've found useful - 

20 unit Stoploss. A lot of progressions, including Oscars Grind, will eventually pass the point of no return. The increase in stakes is not going to be big enough to allow you to recoup, or the wins will not come in big enough clusters. You can vary the % increase, but anything can happen, you can hit another deviation against you & you're done for.
Take the loss & move on.

The other thing - 
I'll begin to look for an exit point after about 20 placed bets if I still haven't reached 3 units profit. There may be no major correction, it may turn out to be a slow correction over many many spins, with further ups & downs. You might get the correction you're looking for too late.


Using imbalances is a risky, imprecise method of play – you can't just pile-on the other side. Plus, a lack of opportunities plays its part in unit levels, overall play.
#92
Quote from: Bayes on November 17, 2012, 10:00:11 AM
So I agree with Gizmo in that you have to be aware of current conditions. But Gizmo, I'd like to hear your definition of what "current conditions" means.

It might not seem a very radical idea (more like common sense actually) but IMO you have to adapt and be flexible in your bet selection. However, most systems posted on forums are of a simple nature, and don't have the needed flexibility built in. The only constant in random outcomes is that of change, so how can you expect a rigid, mechanical bet selection to increase the accuracy of pre
dictions? as soon as outcomes deviate from the usually narrow range that the system is designed to "trap", you start to lose. So IMO, you either need a portfolio of systems (and of course, have some valid reason for selecting a particular system for current conditions), or one complex system which is flexible enough to adapt whatever the current conditions may be. I think the latter is a tougher proposition.


I like the idea of 1 thing leading to another. This can come from knowing your bets well & trying to come up with complimentary systems.
For example, if I'm losing on my System 1, I know what it loses to, & I therefore know which other system it's taking me to, which is triggered to play under the circumstances that make System 1 lose.
If System 1 is winning, you have System 3 which can be used to push it a bit etc.





#93
Straight-up / Re: ZONE MAXIMUM
November 20, 2012, 01:56:18 PM
Quote from: VLS on November 20, 2012, 03:55:44 AM

Sessions from hell arise when the 37-spin sessions have large contiguous areas already hit, and the best thing is that in such cases you bet the lesser numbers! So those type of sessions are actually easier on the progression and hence on the bank.

Vic


hi Vic - what do you mean by betting 'the lesser numbers' in this context?
#94
Even chance / Re: Subbys Six Steps
November 14, 2012, 11:00:56 PM
at Random.org, you can just go to 'List Randomizer' (under 'Lists and Strings and Maps, Oh My!'), put


1
2
3
4
5
6


& hit 'Randomize'.


You could do it for B,E,H,L,R,O too if you wanted..
#95
General Discussion / Re: @ JohnLegend
November 14, 2012, 04:36:55 PM
Quote from: Twisteruk on November 14, 2012, 04:08:37 PM
Well Im glad we jumped Ship so to speak and its great to see the 'Usual Suspects' all comin over too  :applause:


I don't know about Vic and his plans to sell but Im sure if it came to it we cud all club together and come to some arrangement

Further there are things goin on that will generate an income for Vic so at this time it all looks good  :thumbsup:


Here is to the future, friends  :beer:




Talking of which, if we do want to make a donation to this site at any given time, is there a link to do it?

Cheers
#96
Gambling Philosophy / Re: Bet Selection Theory
November 14, 2012, 12:43:45 PM

Concerning your original question about what to do with the conditions resulting from a chosen bet selection, broadly speaking -

Quote from: gizmotron on November 13, 2012, 07:29:45 PMOne condition is that the bet selection is doing very well.

Positive progression

Quote
Another condition is that the bet selection is doing very poorly.

Regression

Quote
That leaves the third condition that it is flat without positive or negative results.

Soft negative progression





Betting in the fertile period after an imbalance.
#97
General Discussion / Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY Victor
November 11, 2012, 11:44:37 AM
Happy Birthday Victor  :thumbsup:



#98
Even chance / Re: *PATTERN BREAKER*
November 08, 2012, 06:30:22 PM
Quote from: Twisteruk on November 08, 2012, 04:49:24 PM
If that happens then I've 'missed the boat' so to speak


thanks for clarifying, & hope you're feeling better :thumbsup:
#99
Even chance / Re: *PATTERN BREAKER*
November 06, 2012, 07:09:56 PM
Quote from: Twisteruk on November 06, 2012, 06:54:07 PM

IF L hits I wait to see if it forms the full opposite Pattern, in this case LHL. IF HL do not follow I then wait until the next block of 3 starts and Im looking, again, for a H

Get me ?




& what do you do if HL does follow, so you have LHL?


#100
Straight-up / Re: The "Dozen twins"
November 06, 2012, 06:45:35 PM
cheers for this Victor - is there a certain number of spins in which you'd like to see the 3 numbers appear?
& would you hold the bet for a certain amount of time?



#101
Even chance / Re: *PATTERN BREAKER*
November 06, 2012, 06:39:11 PM
Quote from: Twisteruk on November 06, 2012, 05:28:30 PM

I also only play the 2nd and 3rd leg of the Selection so my stake is,

First EC 1,2

Second EC 4,8



hi Twister - is there any reason why you play the 2nd & 3rd leg, and not the 1st & 2nd?


say, the last remaining pattern is HLH, so you sit out the 1st leg, and it comes L, so you would've won, do you make the bets anyway?





#102
Quote from: seykid31 on October 20, 2012, 02:39:11 PM
this is being played for real in a casino? ??? :o


Online, live dealer.


Tonight had this:


PP
B
PP
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
P
BB
P
BBBB +1
P 0
B -1
P -2
BB
P
B
PPPPPP -1, 0, +1
B 0
P -1
BBBB -2, -1
P -2
BBBBB -3, -2, -1, 0, +1
PPPPP 0, +1, +2; could've carried on here maybe - still looking at win-goals etc..
BB <<<<played as series/singles bet +3
PPP <<<< i could've played this for a win, but decided not to push my luck here & was happy with +3.
B


as i said in my first post, I don't play strictly to the 'wait for an std3' before betting. I thought this looked a good opportunity so played.
#103
Well just to finish this idea off, this is a real play example of how you might combine this PnF bet with a more normal Marigny type attack on series.


PnF bets are in bold; Marigny bets underlined & running totals in brackets.


B
P
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
P
B
P
BB
P
B
P  14 singles/2 series of 2: STD3
BBB <<<<trigger for PnF bet 'BBB'
PP -1, 0
B -1
P -2   [-1]
BB -3 [-2]
P
BB
PP
BBBB <<<<trigger for PnF bet 'BBB', [-1] -2
PPP -3, -2, -1 [ 0]
BB -2, -1 [+1]
PP -2, -1 [+2 - END Marigny bets]
B -2
P -3
BBB -4
P
BBB <<<<trigger for PnF bet 'BBB'
PPP -5, -4, -3
BB -4, -3
P -4
BB -5, -4
PP -5, -4
BBBBB -5, -4, -3, -2, -1
P -2
BBB -3, -2, -1
PPPPP -2, -1, 0, +1, +2


END +4




I came to look at this mainly through real play, but i just did a quick 600 placed bets test (see attached) - flatbetting to +2, it always recovered & finished +62units, z-score 2.53.
A real grind at times though, & I don't doubt there would be sequences that would be even longer, possibly not to recover.
I would use a progression to try & recoup though.


That's the way i envisage it - a bet to double-up with Marigny opportunities.


Cheers & good luck
#104
Dear Wannawin


The PnF chart is only to visually represent what happens before you have 5 changes in direction, ie. RRR/BB/R/BBB/RRRR


[attachimg=1]


To move across 1 cell, the average would be 2-3 singles, 1-2 doubles, & 1 three or more, 7-10 spins on average.


The rest you are right.


Any effect of the length of streak amongst the singles is the main area: whether shorter streaks can trigger an FTL bet, as well as the usual Marigny bet for the series to correct themselves..
#105
This is regarding imbalance, waiting for a trigger to show possible correction & then betting thereafter.
In that respect it's broadly based on Marigny, however I'm not really a purist when it comes to this – for instance, I don't always wait for the 3STD, & I'm prepared to use progressions if needed (though not if I can help it), both negative & positive.


So the idea below is just 1 where the application is quite simple really, but the idea behind it may be worth looking at & may provoke new ideas/improvements.

The basis: if we have a PnF cell 5 chops across, on average it takes approximately 7-10 spins to cross a cell.
We can interpret the results from reaching an STD3 (specifically in this example with singles contra series) visually more directly to a 'point & figure' chart.

If we have an STD3 of singles contra series, with streaks no longer than 2 or 3, we know that it is has been taking fewer than expected spins to cross a cell, therefore, we are betting, after a trigger, for a correction in the number of spins it takes to cross future cells.
This is where the idea of the PnF chart will differ from the normal Marigny notion where any streak is worth 1. If we are looking at spins to cross a cell, then the length of those streaks do matter. For our play here, we want streaks of a short length, because then the number of spins to cross a cell would still be under-represented. A streak of 5 or 6, although still keeping within the STD3 framework, would not fit in with this premise.

At best we can have a good correction in our favour; more probably, an evening out producing low variance.
The worst – the deviation increasing. In this instance, no wild chasing & a sufficient BR to ride it out is needed.
We can't know the outcome of the next spin, but we can be prepared to take a sufficient sample size after our triggers that will hopefully bring about the correction we are looking for (remembering that 'correction' can just mean the deviation not continuing to grow).

Trigger is 3 in a row.
Play FTL until 3 losses in a row – stop, wait for next trigger, continue until you have +2 or -6.
If I reach -6, I would start to use a positive progression (contra d'alembert) to break even or get close. Another couple of losses & increase the base bet to 2units.

That's it – like I said, a lot of words to describe a pretty simple way of play – it's the correlation between imbalances & thinking of them in terms of a PnF chart that I thought might be interesting.

Thanks to Drazen for providing the samples. I've tried to pick a couple that are tricky, many will be a more straightforward +2.

EG1:

314: b
315: r
316: r
317: b
318: r
319: b
320: r
321: b
322: r
323: b
324: b
325: b
326: b
327: r
328: b
329: r
330: b
331: r
332: b
333: r
334: b
Red & Black
Singles=14 | Series =2 | Ecart =3.0
Formations = B RR B R B R B R BBBB R B R B R B R
Sequence|-->35 1 36 11 5 17 18 29 23 17 8 11 8 21 24 7 20 7 15 23 (8 ) @ SPIN NR-334


335: r
336: b
337: b
338: r
339: r
340: b
341: b
342: b    <<<<trigger 'bbb'
343: b    +1
344: r     0
345: b    -1
346: r     -2
347: r
348: b
349: b
350: r
351: b
352: r
353: r
354: r     <<<<trigger 'rrr'
355: r     -1
356: b    -2
357: b    -1
358: b    0
359: r     -1
360: r     0
361: b    -1
362: r     -2
363: r     -1
364: r     0
365: b    -1
366: r     -2
367: r     -1
368: b    -2
369: b    -1
370: b    0
371: b    +1
372: b    +2           END +2
373: b   
374: r     
375: b   
376: b
377: r
378: b


EG2:

453: l
454: h
455: l
456: l
457: l
458: h
459: l
460: h
461: h
462: h
463: l
464: h
465: l
466: h
467: l
468: l
469: h
470: l
471: h
472: l
473: l
474: h
475: h
476: h
477: h
478: l
479: h
480: l
481: h
482: l
483: h
484: l
485: h
486: l
487: h

Low & High

Singles=20 | Series =5 | Ecart =3.0
Formations = L H LLL H L HHH L H L H LL H L H LL HHHH L H L H L H L H L
Sequence|-->14 27 4 7 2 35 16 24 23 21 12 29 12 23 5 12 28 11 31 9 18 36 20 22 31 9 33 5 25 5 27 9 33 16 (33) @ SPIN NR-487

488: h
489: l
490: h
491: h
492: h    <<<<trigger 'hhh'
493: l      -1
494: h    -2
495: l      -3
496: h
497: l
498: l
499: l      <<<<trigger 'lll'
500: h    -4
501: h    -3
502: h    -2
503: h    -1
504: l      -2
505: h    -3
506: l      -4
507: l
508: l      <<<<trigger 'lll'
509: l      -3
510: l      -2
511: l      -1
512: h    -2
513: h    -1
514: l      -2
515: h    -3
516: l      -4
517: h
518: h
519: h    <<<<trigger 'hhh'
520: l      -5
521: h    -6
522: h    -5 [start contra d'alembert]
523: h    -3
524: l      -6
525: l      -5
526: l      -3
527: l      0              END 0
528: l
529: l
530: h
531: l
532: h
533: h
534: h
535: l
536: l
537: l
538: l
539: l
540: l
541: h

In the example above, in real play, once I reached the second -4, & then got back to -1, I probably would've stopped after another loss taking me to -2.

I would be happy to read any ideas people have for improving this, whether it be the triggers in & out, MM, stop-wins/losses etc...