Happy Birthday Victor.

Like a fine wine, you are not getting older, just maturing, right ?

Acknowledged !

"Seize the time, Meribor. Live now; make now always the most precious time. Now will never come again" – Captain Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek: The Next Generation

Hey Giz;

There is a New York Times best-selling book called "How Not To Die" that should be helpful.

"Discover the Foods Scientifically Proven To Prevent and Reverse Disease"
It is written by Michael Greger M.D. founder of nutritionfacts.org

PM me and and leave your email address. I have a copy in PDF format that I would be pleased to send to you.

Get healthier,

Garry

Hi Mike;

"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "

Of course you are technically correct, but practically in a random game like Baccarat, what else to do we have but past results to make an intelligent, informed guess ?

Mike, I also believe it is totally true that you can not predict with mathematical certainty the next event of a random game. However it is also true that the random game creates a series of outcomes that do arrange themselves in patterns which may be useful in bet selection.

Perfect predictions --NO. Helpful indicators -- PERHAPS.

in reality we only have to increase our bet selection process ever so little to become profitable and if random patterns can be utilized then it makes sense to use them, wouldn't you agree ? 

(Now if we could create a mathematical algorithm..)

Gentlemen;
Fascinating opinions, information and insights to consider from all of you. I find the information you all are sharing quite interesting.

Of course an informed player's results also create a set of individual statistics, which ultimately may well exceed expectations (and isn't that our goal ?)

Garry

Hey Giz;
On a bus shuttle from The Orleans to the Palms, in Las Vegas,  I remember a gentleman, reminding me that when it comes to being successful in casino gambling, "The trend is your friend."

So simple. So profound. And now many years later I have the privilege of hearing you, restate the same principle.

Thanks for the positive, and informative reinforcement.

Garry

Hi BlueAngel;

RE: "Hey Garry, what's up?
Warming up the chair for me?

It would be a pity not to address your inquiry properly, but since you've posted that your selection is doing well for thousands of bets, then why don't you make the start by explaining about your selection criteria?
By doing so others would be encouraged to step forth and fulfill your request, what do you think?"

Please don't misunderstand my intentions here. I did not mean to imply that "my selection is doing well for thousands of bets."
My bet selection process is still in the development stage and I was inspired by this ongoing discussion to compliment the people involved in this thread in providing, what I consider, some very useful information.

As a direct result of the information I have personally learned in this thread, IN THEORY, it seems likely that by using only past performances as a basis of input, that it is indeed possible to achieve a level of play that would allow a person to make bet selections with enough accuracy to achieve profitability, OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, which is all you need. I have to assume that is where the MM comes in, short-term, realistic goals, make your profit and leave.

I was suggesting that, THEORETICALLY, there must be a creative, perhaps new way of following or notating past results, specifically for Baccarat, that would lead us naturally to a positive bet selection process. I hope this clears things up.

Sincerely,

Garry

Again I must congratulate all of you contributing to this thread for the massively, intelligent, interesting and relevant information that is being introduced. Indeed any money management system cannot overcome an inadequate bet selection protocol.

When you have a betting protocol in place that allows you to win consistently, creating a positive edge, then of course, a structured money management system will allow the player to maximize winnings and minimize losses.

So now the big question, as professionals our main, or perhaps initial focus, should be on bet selection.

How, in an ocean of probabilities, do we gain a positive edge on say, Baccarat when an individual session (80 hands or less) represents a "drop in the ocean of probabilities ?

The only concrete tools we appear to have is past performance, developing trends and the like. Is there a method we could develop as a like-minded group, with various backgrounds and skills that would provide enough shift in betting protocol to give us that positive edge ?

I totally realize that each individual hand is essentially random, and that, "The past does not equal the future." HOWEVER, every session produces variable results and that may be our strength. The player who is able to step back and see the bigger picture of a string of outcomes, look at those outcomes in a new and different creative manner, may be able to instinctively and intelligently predict (guess) at a different and superior level.

If you add up all of the years of experience each one of you have personally, collectively, as a group we likely have centuries of experience, right here in this form. What an amazing privilege !

I sincerely believe that there really is a very subtle difference between losing to the house advantage and shifting the bet protocol to a consistent player advantage and if anyone can figure that out, this is the group that will do it.

Next step ?

Garry

Thanks GIZ. That's good advice on the bankroll. % of bank is a solid method of play because it keeps you in the game. Also, IMO, your bankroll increases in direct proportion to your results.

Thanks Giz, You're first ! I appreciate the prompt (and honest) reply.

So, using Xander's idea of 1% of bankroll and your confirmation of utilizing past results, we're making process.

So before we create the ultimate "BETSELECTION" Baccarat strategy, I think it wise to hear from more players.

What do you say team?

So, how best to use the past results for that 1% initial bet........

Great discussion gentlemen. So in keeping with the sprit of the thread. I would like to propose another fun question. Let's assume you have an adequate bankroll, decided upon a reasonable stop loss and you are now at the the baccarat table.
My "fun" question what is the best way to select your next bet:

1. Use past results as the basis of your decision ?

2. Utilize a math algorithm to predict the next bet ?

3. Follow your intuition ?

4. Use combination of the above ?

5. Other ?

What is is, what is not, is not.

It seems very clear to me that the amount of time a player spends playing a single session of baccarat is a drop in the ocean of long term probability. This would suggest that over a short period, (one shoe or less), the Law of Small Numbers reigns supreme which means that in terms of probability, ANYTHING can happen - and likely will.

That, of course leads to negative expectancy which can only be beaten, as Xander so wisely explained it, by improving betting selections.

Anything we, as an intelligent, informed and experienced group of professional can do to increase our betting decision proficiency would assist all of us dramatically.

Q.E.D.

Well stated Lungyeh -Yin/Yang - the power is in the balance.

I can remember being in California, using my credit card and have the waiter say, "Nah, you're not him."

Hi 8OR9;

Thanks for posting the information about The Blackjack Ball, I really enjoyed reading the article. Also, it's nice to hear about top-notch advantage players doing well in successfully winning at the casino.

Best wishes,

Garry Owens
OWENSLV