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Messages - roversi13

#31
The only way for "controlling" and reduce the variance is the arcsine approach,at least at Baccarat.
No at roulette, having perfect symmetry.
I spoke already about that in the past, but it seems that no member followed this idea,even if Google can teach some principles (not all needed details,of course!)
Even if the control of the variance is difficult but possible,it's not easy at all, also to find a MM that works.
"Works" means:no huge BKR,no ten hours a day at the table,no very very low wins.
Personnally I tried to control the variance with statistics,agglomerations,cluster of agglomerations,figure of 1,2,3,cluster of intermittences,very big variance and so on but I must admit that I failed......like the most people writing on this Forum,apart may be Asym that has an important knowledge of Basics,a smart approach to the game and a huge creativity.

#32
If EV +:
-to make a living,flat bet at the max allowed.
Of course you need a huge Bkr to overcome variance,bur with EV + no problem to find the adequate bkr (bankers,friends,relatives,even pension funds or...Trump).
After 20000 hands you are SURE to be in big +

-as your example is concerned(meeting some members,3 days, 10 K$) you can play like usual,whatever MM or bet selection.You are not sure to win at the end of 3 days
#33
Baccarat Forum / Re: Changes
April 25, 2016, 07:13:24 AM
Greenguy's post is perfect.
He knows the BASICS of Baccarat very well,like almost all members.
If a system doesn't beat the game in the long run(all systems),it means that you could meet the "killer" permanence that make you lose, after 1 minute you start betting.
Our goal is "to win money" and in the short run it's possible at certain conditions:
- play only a few decisions per shoe
- determine a trigger more related to unbalance than to figures
-only play figure of 1(singles) in a given way,IMHO can be profitable for the player
-money management:if negative max bet 2 or 3 units,if positive Guetting,Patrick,Samonte are acceptable
-bet Banker only(-1,06%),but I know that some members are against this statement and may be they are right

In order to convince(difficult!) some members about the danger of some unbeatable(!!??) systems,here my experience:
Everyone ,I hope,knows "The very near infallible method" that I have played in the past with some modifications.
I considered useless to play for the rupture of 2's,3's,4's:in any case the result was the equilibrium less VIG.
So I cancelled this first part of the system.
I started with a  fictive - 10 units to ricover,that represented my gain when ricovered.
I try to recover on singles in 2 times,i.e. dividing the balance by 2.
If I lose first attempt the sum to ricover became 15,if lose the second attempt the sum stayed stable at 10(1W,1L)
After BBBP I bet B in order to have a single P and so on....
For ricovering I needed 2 singles in a row:probability 1 out of 15 decisions.
I had 1 out 3115 probability of losing all my BKR(2000 units)
It happens after ten sessions:unbelievable!
This system beats Zumma very easily,but I met the killer permanence after one month.

So I gave up.....


#34
Baccarat Forum / Re: Changes
April 24, 2016, 03:56:37 PM
soxfan
...shouldn't be too hard.....:MATH IS MATH!
Stop dreaming
#35
Baccarat Forum / Re: Changes
April 24, 2016, 03:52:41 PM
Even with a good bet selection,that in IMHO doesn't exist,13 steps are not enough.
A very strong bet selection(???) can't face, with only 13 steps, a big negative variance that will  occur for sure(good or bad bet selection!)
#36
Baccarat Forum / Re: Changes
April 24, 2016, 03:39:54 PM
A parlay(WW) occurs 1 out of 4 double decisions.
Your progression(13 steps) is too weak and it can't face a big variance.
It has the same probability of W of a 6 terms standard martingale.
A dream....
#37
Baccarat Forum / Re: Daimond cutter system
March 28, 2016, 01:38:28 PM
I have found the same method in an old 1972 book.
I remember that I used to play it,but I gave up: it's a kamikaze system!
Today it works ,tomorrow it doesn't:at the end sure ruin for the player.
#38
Baccarat Forum / Re: What would you do?
February 28, 2016, 07:31:47 PM
I agree with your comments.
My suggestion is taken from the "Very near infallible method" as you said,even if this method plays also the break of 4 in a row.
Break of 2 and 3 in a row is enough for me!
"Very near infallible method",that is a losing method,I agree,is  the most solid system I know.
"Solid" means that within 300/350 outcomes this method wins 98% of the sessions.
The negative EV in Baccarat is lower than roulette,that's why I think that my suggestion,without the complication of 3 Banks,like Very near.....,could be the best way to play.
Risk of ruine still present of course,but I know players that have been using it since ten years and they are not rich,but more than economically satisfied
#39
Baccarat Forum / Re: What would you do?
February 28, 2016, 11:40:38 AM
Boss method illustrated by Super 6 is OK.
2 comments:
-bet in favour after 4 in a row looking for a streak,is IMHO dangerous

-possible modification:if deficit,divide it by 3 and try to recover it in three times,betting for singles that in "Boss method" is NO BET!
Example:if you have a 12 units deficit,divide it by 3 and bet 4 units three different times,(even not in a row if it's not possible),for single.
PPBBBPBB (the 6th hand is a single,so you have to play B on 7th hand,for 1/3 of recovery and so on).
Profits:break 2 and 3 in a row
Ricovery(if it occurs):like explained above
#40
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
February 12, 2016, 09:27:48 AM
I really appreciate the fact that you share your discoveries and conclusions,it' so rare,but I'm afraid that you ignore some basics concerning probabilities.

- the three dozens have the same probability to hit,at ROULETTE
-your three dozens at BACCARAT(series of 1,of 2,of 3 and higher) have not the same probability to hit like at roulette
-any bet selection can't overcome the EV- and gives no advantage both at Roulette at Baccarat
-money management/progression can't overcome EV-,but it can make you win in the short term small amount of money,I agree,but not in long term.
-all systems,I confirm ALL systems about series and or patterns are losing systems.(Marigny,Spirkoff,Gardner,Duchaine,..and similar)
-SD 3 is rare,but if you spend four or five hours in a Casino with ten roulette/Baccarat tables you can see also 4 SD!
-the most famous systems about patterns(Marigny,that bets only after 3 SD) have been tested thousand times and it loses!

-i have listed these comments for not giving young and inexpert players illusions that can ruin them
#41
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
February 09, 2016, 02:19:24 PM
I must confess that IMHO this a nice method.
Nice doesn't mean winning method.
My first question when someone explains a strategy or a method is :" WHY DO YOU PLAY THIS WAY"?
Positive EV?Sure not!
Statistical advantage?I'm afraid not!

So,thanks Sputnik for your system,but I put it in the list of thousands nice but losing systems.
#42
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
February 06, 2016, 04:39:10 PM
Sorry your answer not clear for me.
I try to say it again.
Example about roulette dozens(it's easier):probability three different dozens in a row 1/9(Zero not taken into account)
Probability "2 times " three different dozens in a row 1/9 x 1/9=1/81 or 1,234%
Probability a bit better than a 6 terms martingale (1,833%)
#43
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
February 06, 2016, 04:09:45 PM
1 2 3  in any order followed by another 1 2 3 in any order:probability 1,234%
Quite low but,IMHO not low enough for playing without stress.
Risk still there.....
#44
Baccarat Forum / Re: Sputnik's March
February 06, 2016, 06:47:06 AM
Bet selection very well explained and if it's valid, playing flat bet is perfect!

I disagree about  suggested progressions:all smooth progressions represent an agony and a sure death.
More it's smooth more the total volume of the bets increases and the player pays a lot of tax(VIG)

Best progressions are violent(or flat bet if bet selection unbeatable,like said above!)
Wingoal 2 units,that's all.
It's true that a player can get them after 2 or 3 decisions.
Do a player enter a Casino for fun or for earning money?
#45
Baccarat Forum / Re: Dr Tom's baccarat system
January 19, 2016, 11:46:59 AM
This system is a small modification of a very old system of Theo D'Alost,that in 1932  wrote a useless book about even chances at roulette.
He called the patterns Symmetrical and Asymmetrical,instead of Balanced and imbalanced.
He called Minus and plus, Equilibrium(E) and Deviation(D).
Played flat bet,he said that the system gives + 2% for the gambler.
Tested several times recently,the conclusion is that is a scam.
+2% result is a dream.
Don't waste your time.