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Messages - spike

#1
Are there any active gambling boards? They all
seem dead as hell.
#2
Quote from: Gizmotron on January 21, 2016, 12:56:28 PM
Spike is a very crafty fellow...  Perhaps human nature is the holy grail, and it only favors the casino. What percent of a house's edge is that I wonder.

Same old Gizmo. A 500 word post saying
nothing. It's an art form.
#3
Gambling Philosophy / Re: Is there a causeless effect?
August 10, 2013, 07:46:15 PM
Its all about variance. Small edge = large variance.
Like in BJ card counting. They have such a small
edge they can have losing streaks that last for weeks.
Even the casino has a small edge in its games and
can have losing months because of it. Identifying your
edge, be it negative or positive, is what's important.
That's the starting point, finding out why your edge is
what it is.
#4
Gambling Philosophy / Re: Is there a causeless effect?
August 10, 2013, 07:28:03 AM
Quote from: Bayes on August 10, 2013, 05:45:16 AM

Expectation depends upon the mean, not the variance, which means that there is no mathematical 'law" which says that you can't affect the variance through bet selection...t you can't affect the payoff/variance by betting multiple locations alone, you need to find a real edge.

With a good edge, variance almost disappears. Meaning luck no longer enters into the equation, luck and variance being the same thing.
#5
Quote from: Gizmotron on August 08, 2013, 12:58:06 PM
Interesting work you've done here.

The secret is in finding moments when the bet selection method works and avoiding making bets when they don't. It all boils down to watching for the more consistent conditions.

I don't know what this means, please elaborate, give examples.

Thanks.  [smiley]aes/angel.png[/smiley]
#6
I'm trying to remember what I said about Legend/Fender right from
the start, and what he said about me. And what was said about laughing
last. But I don't recall any of it, best forgotten..
#7
If you have good bet selection, most MM schemes work
very well. But they also put you more at risk. So it always
comes back to flat betting. There is nothing MM can do that
flat betting can't if you have the right bet selection. Just last
week I saw 4 zeros in 6 spins. This will screw up any MM plan,
except flat betting. For FB, its just a blip. Bottom line is, always
risk as little as possible, you never know what's coming.
#8
General Discussion / Re: CALLING JOHN LEGEND !!!!
July 12, 2013, 05:02:49 AM
And he seemed so sure of himself, like that's all it takes.
Blustering and bravado. Takes a little more than that.
Just a smidgeon more...
#9
Even chance / Re: With regards to even chance
June 15, 2013, 07:33:21 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 15, 2013, 08:36:20 AM
Wow, why should I.

Yes, why change now at this late date..
#10
Even chance / Re: With regards to even chance
June 15, 2013, 07:31:48 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 15, 2013, 05:28:26 AM
Big deal. It's all unsubstantiated, as I said. And yes. You made me a $10,000 offer.

So is what you say and do unsubstantiated. And no offer was
made, you're a liar. Stop it.
#11
Even chance / Re: With regards to even chance
June 14, 2013, 10:03:43 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 14, 2013, 09:45:16 PM
There is no chance to have an advantage,

Speak for yourself, not me. There's most certainly
a method of play that has an advantage, but it
takes more practice than most are willing to give
it. They throw their hands over their heads after
just a few days and move on to something else.
If it were easy or obvious everybody would be
doing it. And they're not, are they...

And I tried to sell you nothing, nor will I ever.
#12
Even chance / Re: With regards to even chance
June 14, 2013, 08:53:59 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 14, 2013, 03:24:35 PM
Roulette is not a complicated game. It's just that some people can't see the simplest of opportunities

Meaning what, that you can quit while ahead if you
do it early in every session? You're forgetting
that because the outcomes are random, the next
session is just a continuation of the last session.
that's even true if you have an edge. Quitting while
ahead is a fantasy in a game of random outcomes
if you don't have the edge. If you do have the edge,
you can quit anytime you like. And its sine-wave, not
sign-wave.
#13
Quote from: Bayes on May 31, 2013, 02:29:44 PM
ask for a refund even if it doesn't live up to the claims.

'Even if'? You mean Izak had a system that did what
he said it would do? You mean WHEN it doesn't live
up to its claims, not if it does..
#14
Quote from: Bayes on May 27, 2013, 05:48:37 PM
No, you don't need to assume that past results affect future results

Why is it people can look at past results of the stock
market or past results of football games or past results
of rainfall and never once think, gee, these don't effect
future results, they must be useless. They aren't useless
at all, they give us a guide as to what might happen in
the future. But not past roulette spins, why, they're stuff,
you're an unintelligent if you look at them. Whatever...
#15
Even chance / Re: *PATTERN BREAKER*
May 20, 2013, 08:17:22 PM
But, but, hasn't he been playing this for YEARS, according
to him, and made nothing but money with it? Years and
years I think he said. And now that might not be true?
Say it isn't so....