an�thro�po�mor�phize (wondering how to pronounce, click here https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anthropomorphize)

"To attribute human characteristic, expectation, superstitions to innate pieces of plastic devoid of any intelligence, basically were none of the former exists".    Some may call it gamblers fallacy.

So what has this to do with gambling, actually a lot, you have to had been there to appreciate it.

Purely as an example, can equally apply to trending, prior Naturals, or anything that exists in your head at any given moment.  Take a six deck Baccarat shoe, which will produce 4 x 12H grids and your betting for example "Equilibrium vs ImBalance", yet   3 or 4 of those grids end up in Equilibrium, resulting in losing bet after bet, while your expectation is increasing, yet is proving futile.

So you're left bewildered and stunned, then the realisation may dawn on you, "THE CARDS NEITHER KNOW NOR DO THEY CARE", they have no awareness of Equilibrium v's ImBalanced, or what is expected or what they are suppose to conform to.

The same applies to a myriad of bet selections, some of which I use and have used myself, but do they make sense?  These would include;

"Birthday Paradox", is it more likely a group of 4 pairs are suppose to produce a repeat more often than 4 different pairs?

"Symmetrical Patterns", do the cards know what mirrored pattern they hare producing?
"Streak lengths expectation", ('Anti-Streak' or Expected Streak Frequency)

I know the feeling well when these type of bet selections work, we feel good & smart, yet there is the flip side, those times when they don't conform.  Then (impact is even more pronounced after a few successful sessions), we can be left confused and hugely disappointed.  Literally make no sense (the cards don't know), are they worth spending time on or even contemplate playing?

Certainly over the years I've dabbled with Equilibrium v's ImBal, I've played the best and worst of it, to the point that now, I wait for it to lose first (a 12H grid Balanced), before taking that bet option.

"Birthday Paradox" is another prime example (travelled down that road), Scott was wrong to suggest it had a mathematical edge, it doesn't, it resolves to a 50% state, just like everything else.

If we strip away all these anthropomorphize options, what do we have left?  Certainly "pattern capturing" and/or "pattern avoidance", have their merits.  Knowing that you will win, within a series of bets against xyz and will only lose against abc 'in advance'.    The so called standard bet selections offer alternative options, 'FLD, DBL, OLD, Zz, Dbl-Zz' etc, again we know in advance what we will win and lose against, no anthropomorphize ambiguity involved.

Should "player expectation", play a part in the betting strategies we decide to use?  Can we improve our game, even if it's just a case of stop kidding ourselves, if we dispense with this way of thinking altogether. I watch players at the tables, who have no expectation, they simply bet & hope and try and ride things out when thing are swing the other way.


Anthropomorphizing the results  Placing a human element on prior outcomes. 

It means that EVERY Template / grid bet selection option, "symmetrical patterns" and a few other options are flawed AND without merit.  Because you are placing emphasis on prior hands (this is due or shouldn't happen again), thinking that due to the unique way you are recording a shoe, it has significance.

When you spot something, well it might not have existed if you were recording the the shoe via a different column template \ grid size or even gazing at the score board.  Basically you are humanising the prior outcomes, given the cards have no awareness what you are doing, or how you are recording a shoe, what you are looking for, or waiting upon, nor do they care.  It is my opinion such methods are merely gamblers fallacy (I plead as guilty as the rest), sometimes they work and sometimes they don't.

Now compare "Anthropomorphizing" the game to running any standard betting option, they could be a combination of  DBL/OLD/FLD, betting against streak then jumping on them, or vice-a-versa.  Betting one-side only, stopping after X amount of Liar's, there are many options.

All bet options are capable of winning and losing, it shouldn't be so hard to guess right a 50-50 proposition once in a while to re-enforce to deluded logic thinking.  However and here is the important bit, some bet selections anthropomorphize the results and some don't.  Humanizing the results is without logic and is an exercise in futility.

My suggestion is to ask yourself, "am I anthropomorphizing the game", if the answer is yes, then be weary, it is without foundation, based on deluded speculation and expectation, gamblers fallacy, seek to remove this element from your game and progress forward. Bet one side only, Pattern Capturing / Pattern Avoidence, Standard options, are prime examples of not  Anthropomorphizing the game, nothing is due, nothing is based on prior hands, we simply bet, accept and manage what transpires.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8SkCh-n4rw

Just because I'm a stickler:  Anthropomorphizing is a misnomer to describe peoples relationship to gambling games.  People really don't put human characteristics on the game.  Better to say humans use post hoc fallacious reasoning.  But even then do players really think that present events are caused by past events?  Nah.  They are, IMO, just guessing that some occurrence(s) will repeat enough to overcome the house edge and make a profit.  The game of Baccarat is not all that complicated.

Please someone show me and Alrelax a mathematical method to stop guessing! 

J

Quote from: Jimske on May 29, 2019, 08:01:45 PM
Just because I'm a stickler:  Anthropomorphizing is a misnomer to describe peoples relationship to gambling games.  People really don't put human characteristics on the game.  Better to say humans use post hoc fallacious reasoning. 

More in keeping with the Webster's definition "attribute human characteristics or behaviour to (a god, animal, or object)" or in this case "little pieces of plastic, often referred to as playing cards".  Placing emphasis were none belongs, how you label it, amounts to the same thing.

Quote from: Jimske on May 29, 2019, 08:01:45 PM
But even then do players really think that present events are caused by past events? 

Nope, who knows what illogical thoughts players have, I've certainly witnessed my fair share of stupid comments at the tables.  Playing Anti-streak and some old timer warning me to be careful cos the Banker went to 8 about 20 hands prior, I shake my head in utter bewilderment. 

But basically 'trying to predict the future by relying on past non-correlated, independent events. Occasionally such player tactics will be right, it's not like you are trying to over come a 60-40 game, so you should expect to guess correctly on occasions, which will in itself re-enforce the fallacy and provide a warm fuzzy smug feeling that you have the ability to predict future events by looking at past events, while burying even further into your subconscious all those times when you couldn't guess your way out of a paper bag.  Strange how the mind will inflict such cruelty upon us.

Quote from: Jimske on May 29, 2019, 08:01:45 PM
Please someone show me and Alrelax a mathematical method to stop guessing! 

It would be near impossible to show you anything that surpasses your 40000 recorded results.

Guessing!!  I've been there, I witnessed some drunk young dude who had never played the game in his life, win about 75% of his bets, his MM was a handful of chips, he cleaned up.  I got him away from the table at the end of the shoe, because I knew his luck wouldn't hold up and the managers were hovering and itching for him to play on.

The moral here (with the exception of yourself) is, us mere mortals can't hope to guess ourselves into profit and remain there in the long term.  Those that state otherwise are simply in denial. Sizeable wins can have that effect on players who don't want to face the truth, so they simply re-invent, as it is easier to deal with than accept reality. 

Regarding mathematical options, can't vouch for their long term 40000 hand viability, but off the top of my head, Bet Banker only (based on the HE). Birthday Paradox and Equilibrium are math based, ditto Anti-Binary, "Bryans method" (you probably don't recall it, it was posted on my board), is based on the maths of expected streak distribution for all streak lengths. 

Anti-streak also based on expected streaks ratios, is maths based and for this particular bet selection I can vouch for. 

The bet selection OLD is based on maths, plus it will win in the long term (can vouch for this one too) but you won't survive the variance, file under 'pattern capturing'.  "Pattern avoidance" options are I suppose math based.     

So there are lots of math (fuzzy or otherwise) options, you could knock together bet options that hardly ever lose, like once per 15~20 shoes, alas not viable to use in the Real World due to MM requirements.  You asking for a mathematical method so you don't have to mentally guess, is akin to Mohammed Ali or Iron Mike asking "line somebody up who is gonna beat me", when in their prime.   

That said, my 67.5% average strike rate test, obliterates literally everything that has gone before it and nope I'm not going to test further to prove any point, I'd rather watch paint dry 

Johno, so you were the one with Bryan's triggers!  I think it was some kind of running joke in a way where hundreds of people (or so it seemed) kept coming out of the woodwork asking for Bryan's triggers.

I found it for anyone interested but last time I posted up something from this 'wayback' site, it just re-directed to the home page I think. The original Baccarat site itself is now long gone.

https://web.archive.org/web/20110713042010/http://baccaratforums.com/t6335/

   I remember that, but no it's a different person.

They do have a login here, maybe one day, he might join in the fun once again.

While on the subject of logins, ever remember that Bo Hawkin's fella from boards gone by, he's also got a login here, only ever made 3 posts.   

The name Bo Hawkins rings a bell from the old GG days. I don't read the archives there anymore because of the virus warnings that different posters have mentioned.
There were some real characters back in the day for sure. There was a guy that lived in Vegas called Rob who seemed to know the score with all his 'gaming alert' threads mentioning what the local Casinos were up to. I enjoyed his posts and then there were some complete nutcases like that 'senlung' character promoting all the Dragon stuff which turned out to be a load of nonsense. I wonder if anybody ever found out what the bet selection was for his super-deluxe strategy which went for crazy money. Funny/strange times in a way not to be repeated.

Bo Hawkins was everywhere, also posted as dozenbettor.  I think Brian appointed him s a mod of the Baccarat section but kept it under wraps.

I remember Rob, I concur, a great poster, very interesting posts.

Haha, Senlung, used to inform the forum when she was going to be away. Regards to Dragon, the bet selection was OLD, I think the more expensive versions had different MM options.

BaccaratForums was a decent site too, could get away with a lot over there, lots of active members well. 

Quote from: Bally6354 on May 30, 2019, 02:34:23 PMI don't read the archives there anymore because of the virus warnings that different posters have mentioned.

It isn't to bad actually, your virus software will throw up an alert, I just ignore the alert and run a few scans afterwards, never had an issue. I suppose it's like visiting Chernobyl (fantastic HBO series BTW), you can visit, but don't stick around too long. 

Actually Junket King aka Johno, this is a good post.

When playing a strict mechanical game (and it could mean to bet every hand or only one-two hands per 2-3 shoes) any serious player should know the sd values, the different points of success, in a word the probability to be ahead or behind because such player had tested a lot of different shoes without having to bet a dime on them.
If we think the game in term of pattern ranges of probability, imo, we can't be so wrong, surely not beyond the math disadvantage.

as.

 


   

I will send you something, it may be more of your style than it is mine.

I was asked by several including its author to delete Junket's, Junket King's, Lugi's, Mark Teruya's, Rolex's, Relex's, Rolex Watch's, Mark's, Eaglite's, and the master of all names, John-O's, as well as all the other names the troll openly used on our board to post, chastise, humiliate and lie; I buried his section in the Sub-Boards just to have the factual proof of all of his IP's, Names, etc. 

On the other hand, I also got a few emails asking to bring him back, apologize and offer a truce.  Just remember, he is the one that is filled with rage, hate, contradictory posts and most of all, huge A-Alpha internet assumptions that are so far twisted and turned from their truth basis, it is pitiful in so many ways. 

The person that holds extreme jealousy and rage is a pretty sad troll that spends unlimited hours on the internet everyday while winning literally wheelbarrows full of cash.  I just can not bring it about to delete his worthless and idiotic postings in total.  Thanks, Alrelax.