@lovepreaks

Do you have a defined probability model for pattern transitions—particularly from asymmetric to symmetric (A→S) or symmetric to asymmetric (S→A)?
For example, is a 0.75 probability for A→S transitions a reasonable estimate?

Since we need to place two bets to define the asymmetry (if the first bet was lost), yes we'll expect A to get a 0.75 p, so the A/S ratio should be 3:1.
That's in theory because in many RNG productions the number of S is way higher than 0.25(!).

Nonetheless S status is more frequent but tend to change faster than at other shufflings.
Maybe betting A-A one time is the safest pattern to look for, then betting A after S-S.
 

Given that the same P/B sequence can sometimes generate multiple A/B outcomes, what specific rule or method do you use to assign A or B in those ambiguous cases?


Not sure if I intendend well your question.
Derived roads are still the simplest way to get A/B sub successions, as you know well only long streaks will make every random walk to be homogeneously shaped.

When in doubt to bet between two or more lines, I'm not betting at all. Anyway as a general rule of thumb I'll prefer the line presenting a triple and not singles and/or doubles.
Moreover the line featuring many streaks and few singles do not elicit any first bet (that would be a sudden win).
So the line that collected more first winning bets than second winning bets is priviliged.
Then there are other considerations to be made.   

When identifying a potential betting spot, does the row position on the tote board (e.g., first row vs. deeper rows) affect your confidence or decision-making?
If so, how do you weigh that spatial factor?


Space distribution of the outcomes is the most important tool to master IMO.
It's the CFS working at different velocities but with a kind of "average steps".
 
I know a couple of successful players adopting a pure anti-streak game (so basically toward a positive CF speed) capable to get rid of many long unfavourable streaks by making considerations about how hands went in that specific (so far short) streak.
They start to consider betting only from row #2 or #3, sometimes even #4 so the shoe is halved or  quartered or even more reduced. Then only three or four bets are placed. 


How were the five betting trigger patterns developed and tested?
Were they based on statistical simulations, real shoe analysis, or other forms of data modeling?


We have never utilized simulators, just real live shoes listed by different forms of shuffling. We own a casino's shuffling machine too.   

Beyond the five primary triggers, have you developed any secondary filters or conditions to avoid high-risk zones or long losing streaks?

There are 4/5 different strategies we currently use and of course we try to adopt the ones performing best at the actual shoe.

Unfortunately losing streaks happen and MUST happen.
We are sure to play with an edge but nobody knows how the actual shoe is arranged. That's why we make very few bets and play a lot of shoes.

We try to avoid to play at tie rich shoes or when many hands are resolved by 6 cards (it's the same math concept).

Another tool we look for is the number of naturals happening so far.
We prefer to face an average value of them (around 1/3 of total hands as you know).

Take care!

as.

"Lin and Zhongqui are in the United States as political refugees from China, their attorney said. Both men took plea deals on a charge of possession of stolen property, court documents said. Neither admitted guilt but took Alford pleas, meaning they agreed prosecutors had enough evidence to sway a jury."

My take on it:

1). From California and go to Vegas to pick up cash they defrauded out of people.  Seriously?

2). They need a translator in court but to defraud the victims they were just fine.  Seriously?

3). Plea deals for extremely less time it would have took them to legally earn the money in China.  Seriously you can bet your A*s on that!

4). What about the others that never came forward because of being embarrassed or something else? 

5). Can you imagine what the consequences would be if they committed the same type of acts in China and were caught?

6). "Lin and Zhongqui are in the United States as political refugees from China, their attorney said."  OMG Holy Sh*t!  I'm totally floored by that one!  (I'm being a bit comical)

The perpetrators summary of it:

"I just want to apologize to all the victims," Zhongqui said through the help of a translator during his sentencing last month. Lin also apologized.




https://www.8newsnow.com/investigators/las-vegas-police-arrest-12-in-3m-fraud-scheme-don't-be-embarrassed/

When you compare those two different plans (AS/S patterns vs anything else) applied to a RNG sequence, you'll see that an asymmetrical pattern MUST COME OUT and whenever it (temporarily) won't it's because some weird card distributions happened.

I mean that per every set of symmetrical options whatever intended, one side must be get a sort of discrepancy over the other one, maybe not now but surely by running the same proposition several times.

The stupi.d RNG makes more probable to get losing symmetrical patterns than average but at the same time will make more probable to get asymmetrical patterns to stop a symmetrical sequences.

It's like that the more we have lost (better fictionally) greater will be the actual probability of success as RNG is less likely prone to make strong AS/S deviations at either side.
And of course we better take the most likely course of operations, that is the AS process.

Suppose we are betting randomly the pattern #2, #5 , #8 and #15 of the Big Road. (two time pattern #15 hadn't come out):

S-S-A-A
A-A-A-A
S-A-A-A
A-A-A-A
A-A-A-A
A-A-S-A
A-A-A-A
A-A-A-A
S-S-S
A-A-S-A
S-A-S-A
A-A-A-S
A-A-A-S
A-S-A-A
S-A-A-A
S-A-A-A
S-A-A-A
A-A-A-S
A-A-A-A
A-A-S-A
A-A-A-S
S-A-S

What and when to bet at these successions?

as.

Thanks Al and KFB for your replies!!

Are there different types of randomness while playing a baccarat shoe?

With the advent of optical reading internal devices (allegedly inserted within shuffle machines, for example), many scholars think that some card distributions are arranged by a RNG software instead of the "old" classical physical process.
Nothing weird or illegitimate of course, but whether this should be the case when playing a bac shoe of such kind we're playing a succession of numbers (card ranks) totally insensitive of the previous shoe distributions (including the "fresh new shoe").

For practical purposes and since we cannot know which kind of RN generators are utilized in the specific scenario, we simply should accept the fact that we're facing a RNG sequence and not physically shuffled cards.

As several times pointed out here, the "cut" and the "number of initial cards burnt in relation of the first card shown" are almost irrelevant in the whole distribution process.

If we would be forced to define at all costs such RNG distributions, we could dare to state that they somewhat relatively lack of the patterns consinstency, curiously the main factor where most bac players focus upon.
Then there are other more specific features we'll see in future posts.

Obviously whether homogeneous patterns seem to be latent, a sort of "anti-homogeneous pattern strategy" should be the best option to take and actually it is but only if we're able to set up two different limits of intervention: the first by deciding when to prolong the betting and the second when to stop it.
Notice that in our opinion itlr the starting point will be irrelevant unless we incorporate the asym/sym feature seen above.

Actually a RNG card distribution not being biased by a kind of "card clumping" factor typical of physically shuffled shoes should be more inclined to present symmetrical patterns than asymmetrical ones (at least as intended in this thread---see above), but in reality just the opposite is true.
More low-level symmetrical patterns are due at many portions of the shoe than at other forms of shuffling. Especially if we are able to exploit other random walks. 

More later

"The fifth round NFL Draft pick is making roughly $4.6 million over the next four years. Sanders has announced what he'll be spending his first NFL paycheck on...

Shadeur Sanders:

"..."I'm not tryna buy anything," Sanders told reporters. "My signing bonus ain't that high right now.".."

Congrats to sanders for getting drafted in the fifth round. I don't watch NFL draft day shows. However, from what I understand from radio sports podcasters is Shadeur, his dad(Deon), and media all projected him to go in the first round.
Probably a dozen other QBs that were drafted in latter rounds or had to sign free agent contracts(Generally with fewer guarantees). So no one wanting him until 5th round may work in his favor.

I think the Browns will be a great fit for Sanders(For a variety of reasons). Im sure Browns VP of player personnel (Andrew Berry) will give him every possible opportunity to succeed(For a variety of reasons). Plus his salary is low enough that Browns will not feel pressured to move on from him quickly. Meaning, his salary won't really hurt their salary cap. So Shadeur will likely get several years to do something productive as per typical NFL salaries he is not costing them much.

Plus, per a sports podcast recently: Shadeur having an older veteran QB to mentor him (Deshaun Watson), may expedite his adaptation to the NFL. The podcasters suggested that Deshaun has been injured a lot. Deshaun has a guaranteed salary regardless if he plays every week or seldom(i.e., He gets paid the same). I don't know if Deshaun is the mentoring type but its my understanding he does bring several years of experience to the table.

Shadeur (from the above quote) seems to have the right attitude about his football career / money. Plus he can always fall back on his degree from the University of Colorado should his NFL career not progress as planned.

I wish him well.

alrelax above:

"...All casinos as I know it, have a private or VIP cage room or area where others cannot view the transactions.  Of course these transactions are usually geared for the larger winners.  (Which the people committing crimes against are looking for anyway)..."

Yes, and many high-limit rooms don't allow lurkers(non players) to just hang out/walk continuously around the table area(without playing). One has to at least point out a spouse or friend that's playing if they want to meander around.
However, maybe different if one is playing slots in High Limit area (or main gaming floor) and hit a jack pot. Its more difficult to disguise a big win as the casino often makes it a spectacle (The machines' sirens, bells, and flashing lights do not help either, lol). I don't play slots much(& not in HL rooms).

Plus its been my experience that employees in the cashier cage of HL rooms have also been trained to be discreet(or they just have common sense).For example, they will typically count out cash down below on the counter. Often they will ask if you want it put in envelopes,...etc. Just common sense.

"..When you cash out your chips, do not go directly to your car.  You can go to various other parts of the casino, restaurants, snack bars, hotel lobby, etc., etc., and be sure no one is following you.  So then you are putting several buffer zones between yourself and leaving in your car.  Continuously look if anyone is following you.  Not too hard to discover, especially down a few hallways, etc.  ..."

Yes,I agree. There are several things a person can do to not attract attention. Most is just common sense and not bringing attention to oneself.
Its always good to know a couple security personnel.
E.G., One can learn where employees park as that area often has higher security. Often security staff will walk staff out late at night,...etc.

*Poker players have a few tricks-to-the-trade for transporting/moving large sums of money in and out of casinos. I do not play poker but do play Bac with several poker folks. I won't post there tricks here. Again, mostly common sense.

**Most of my casinos do not have a specific and detached High-Limit room. Most of mine simply have a corner roped off or maybe a side room connected to the main table pit with ropes(With higher limit tables and buyins required to enter).

***Very seldom and issue for me as A)I seldom have massive wins at any one casino in one day, B)I can deposit as front money or ask for a check for part of the wins, transfer or wire it out,...etc.



Continued Success To All,

This is a quote from the link:

"...What's Allowed and What's Not
You're good taking one or two quick selfies just about anywhere on a casino floor these days. Most tourists do anyway. But photograph an active-play table, even in the background of your selfie, and you're taking more of a chance. In addition to potentially violating guest privacy, the casino may be concerned that your photo is part of a cheating scam.

If you want to gauge the speed of a casino's security response, then photograph one of its cashier's cages. You may not even get a warning before being escorted out. There's almost no justifiable reason a casino can see for snapping such a photo other than plotting a future robbery, such as the ones committed at Resort's World and Gold Coast in November 2022.   ..."


https://www.casino.org/news/vegas-myths-re-busted-its-illegal-to-take-photos-in-a-casino/

The following excerpt from the link below was funny:

"...What has been banished from most resort websites are those laughable descriptions of what resort fees are and why they exist.

Most resort companies claimed they were a "convenience fee" that was "requested by our guests." These mythical guests loved resort fees because they preferred not paying separately for amenities including Wi-Fi, gym access, and local phone calls.

Because you never know which travelers could be time travelers from the 1980s lacking cell phones.   ..."



https://www.casino.org/news/vegas-myths-busted-resort-fees-are-now-illegal/

This will be a good transformation for Rio. I may actually visit Rio the next time Im in LV.
It has been awhile since I gave Rio any Bac action. The last time I was at Rio the best attribute was the wide variety of Keurig coffee pods in the room. The room was adequate as best I recall(Just nothing memorable).
Same with their gaming area(Adequate but nothing memorable). Just my opinion.


https://cdcgaming.com/brief/rio-las-vegas-unveils-new-baccarat-room-in-ongoing-transformation/

alrelax above: "...Come on!!!  You have to love this:  "Wynn reached a "non-prosecution agreement" with the U.S. Department of Justice to resolve the 10-year-old investigation ..."

I concur.
Though restitution is good it would have been even better if a severe consequence was rendered(jail time) and rendered more promptly
.
re: "...10-year-old investigation [/b]..."[/color]..."
     The most important variable in the (consequence for bad behavior and reward for good behavior) system is the consequence(or reward) must be rendered expeditiously. It works the same regardless if one is doling it out in child rearing or doling out to a corporation.


Continued Success,