Link is at bottom.
 
When 2.3% Is Terrifying: A Gambler's Guide To The Asteroid Apocalypse.

I found this a good read(as it relates to probablility and gambling). I also think the more one games the more we look at the "non-casino" games of life from a probability stance(or we should)
.
Most of real life worry is generated/based on "perceived" fear and the probability of  bad happening(vs the % of bad NOThappening).

Especially in the way commercials are presented. Many misconstrue the probability of something happening. We should view as what is the probability of that event NOThappening. Notice the weather forcasters(30% of snow), which should be viewed as 70% NOTsnow.

Notice the pharmaceutical TV commercials as they always present their pitch based on a tiny fear of (disease, death, pain,..etc), therefore one should take our RX (just-in-case). Often the side effects(in the fine print) are worse than having a little discomfort for a couple days. Plus one may never catch that diesease, symptom, pain,..etc).


Re: The asteroid apocalypse.
We shouldn't worry too much (or any) until it gets within a year of time distance before striking. We could then predict with great precision "If" and more importantly "Where" it would potentially land.
Obviously, one could easily rule out greater than 50% of the earths surface. Plus about 1/3 of the potential surface would be water(ocean ,lake, river,..etc). So likely a nonissue.
 Maybe it lands in a field(no harm),...etc. Plus its only the size of a football field(Sounds big but... What is that % ratio to the available land surface,..etc). So even if it is projected to land in a populated areas I think we could tell the folks to vacate for a few hours,...etc.
So the potential catastrophe will likely be very very small(if it even hits earth). Yet Im sure the media will yammer on and on to infinitum as it approaches.

Any thoughts???


https://www.casinoreports.com/probability-asteroid-understanding-gambling/

that's funny.

When I have the option to open cards I usually play along(i.e., slowly peak at one corner), and create a little suspense for a few seconds.
I prefer Ez Bac vs Midi (I want decisions and faster the better),LOL. However, sometimes later in the day it is kinda nice to sit at a slower game. Im not one to start yelling picturepicture or monkeymonkey,...etc.

Though I do find it funny (& somewhat enjoyable) to watch others having a lot of fun with the rituals. Especially when the result is favorable by the majority at the table.

kfb

Thx ADulay. Great vid.

I perceive (from your posts), that you have a lot of expertise "in all things shooting".

What are your top three tips to help a person shoot with greater accuracy(Novice or experienced person)??

Thx in advance/may you always shoot straight, kfb

Come on brother, this is funny!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eC5cE09Ypyc&t=9s

OK, let's see if Google Photos is able to work here.  We shall see.

(As it turns out I couldn't get Google to work so moved it to YouTube)

Anyway, on Monday nights we have a range session with a variety of targets and scenarios.  One of the Range Safety Officers always seems to put his Stanley mug in a conspicuous spot so that we're all aware that he has one.

Well, somebody finally decided to put him in his place.  It wasn't me as I was the next shooter.

The Stanley mug in this video is NOT part of the stage to be shot.

AD (at least the rest of us had fun with it)

Example.
How many times a different than 6-7-8-9 winning point category comes out as clustered (some shoes sample)?
0= no clusters, 1= one cluster and so on.

0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1.

Ok, it's more likely that such 0s derive from a 6-7-8-9 winning point happening at P side than at B side.
At the same token, it's more probable that 1s come out from a 6-7-8-9 category falling at P side than at B side, so stopping the opposite category to be clustered more than one.
And so on.

as.

Differently than pure coin flip independent propositions, per each shoe dealt (8-9 points) vs (any other winning point) move by more detectable ranges, moreover 8s and 9s are slight more likely to show up at Player side than at Banker side.

In fact the total number of 8s and 9s final points at B side account for a 27.4% probability whereas at P side the same total number is 28.8%. (naturally Naturals probability remains perfectly symmetrical between the two chances).
Even 6s and 7s final points are asymmetrically distributed accounting for a 26.3% at B side with P side getting a 28% probability.

Cumulatively 6, 7, 8 and 9 final points get a 53.7% probability at B side and a 56.8% probability at P side.

Therefore if we'd "think" that the next final point or close to the next final point will be a 6,7,8 or 9, we'd better wager Player and not Banker.

Definitely the vast majority of winning points fall into the 6-7-8-9 category.

On the other end, Banker side gets an asymmetrical probability to ends up the hand by a 4 or a 5 point accounting for a 19.4% probability vs a 14% Player probability to show up the same 4 or 5 final points.

There could be all the variance you want, yet itlr any 6, 7, 8 or 9 point is advantaged at various levels to win the final hand.
And as we've seen there's a mathematical factor shifting such points category towards the P side.

In other words, whenever we think that B side won't get a 5 or 4 initial two-card point and, more importantly, that the next final point will be a 6-7-8-9 point, wagering Player side is by far the best option to make.

In fact: Naturals are getting a perfect symmetrical probability to come out but an asymmetrical payement.
All other 9s, 8s, 7s and 6s points get a probability shifted towards the Player side, not mentioning (again) that the payement is quite diverse (0.95:1 than 1:1). Even at no commission tables, such points category will benefit more by wagering P side than B side.

Exaggerating the concept, it's like we just try to get rid of those "low" final winning 5 and 4 points markedly privileging Banker side; almost anything else is going towards Player side for a reason or another.
Even if it seems that many huge points will succumb to greater points or whether a high point falls many times at the "wrong" side.

Naturally B predominating shoes are getting a real threat to this plan, but this is just one unidirectional random walk to be taken care of as the vast majority of the times B streaks need very long sequences to get univocal results at ALL different random walks considered.
If this shouldn't be true, baccarat wouldn't exist.

as.

To cut a long story short, knowing that all 8/9 winning points battle by a kind of coin flip with any other winning point, assuming that cards are asymmetrically distributed along any shoe dealt, and taking care of other tools, we could split every shoe dealt into two distinct categories:

1- Condensed BP pattern shoes (low or very low CFS);

2- Diluted BP pattern shoes (huge or moderate CFS).

Of course the derived random walks (A/B, r/b, etc) will get different lines (very often taking an opposite route) at any shoe dealt but eventually featuring one of the above categories.

It's obvious as hell that at some portions of the shoe (sections) things could easily take a strong opposite way than assessed previously, but we have found to be particularly profitable to make an approximated shoe model first, then trying to make some possible adjustments along the course of it.

After all we just need to be right by few steps per any shoe dealt, one step ahead should be our main goal all of the time.

More later

as.

I used to have a BetUS account and probably still do but pulled all my remaining funds out many years ago to concentrate on one or two special projects.

AD