You said, "On average, way more than 75% of total hands dealt are unguessable by any means."

And yes, could be.  Might also be greater than 75%.  But, could be less than 75%, might be far less than 50% in a shoe or so. 

However, most players do not have the tenacity and the stuff hanging to really bang it out hard when something definable is there, being presented and happening, etc.  So, the casino doesn't care and understands what will happen with the common type of bac players 99-99.9% of the time.  They will lose, or win and give it back or win and leave and never reset, return and then give it all back and attempt to recoup with additional and repetitive buy-ins. 

Here's the point.

Any "horizontal" random walk applied to an original BP succession (being itself a random walk) moves by a different speed toward the right side of the display.

The speed is not determined by a perfect binomial independent probability but, even though partially, by the key cards dilution/concentration factor.

Thus we cannot know precisely when key cards will land or privilege one side or the another one, what we can do is just approximating at best the A/B streaks "average" lenght or A/B "average" streaks/singles apparition.   

Since cards are asymmetrically arranged along any shoe dealt, we have reasons to think that patterns are more probable to come out as some way clustered than precisely arranged into a strong balanced fashion.
Of course the clustering factor is more likely to produce some ranges than others but whenever a given class of "less probable" patterns had shown up, we have to decide whether to chase the most probable situation or to give up.   

Unfortunately, baccarat results are made by many "incidents", that is by hands being math underdog at various levels from the start and eventually unlikely winning the decision.
Yet those situations aren't offering us any long term edge as they're perfectly 50/50 distributed.   

Say we think that the next hand will more likely be a Player hand.
We got a 7 and we'll lose to a Banker natural or another fancy Banker three card 8 or 9.
Actually we have won.

For the same reasons anytime we bet Banker, Player draws and we have a Banker 3 or higher initial point cumulatively we have won even if we lose the hand.

Short term variance could only help tourists and amateurs.

Casinos particularly like short term variance, this being the only tool to lure people keep playing this game.

On average, way more than 75% of total hands dealt are unguessable by any means. Anytime we'll wager an amount equal or greater than that we're destined to lose even if we utilize the most sophisticated algorithms ever invented.
Meaning that in that betting range we cannot approximate nothing at our favor.

as.

Hi Asym.

Thx for review of this article and your personal rankings. I like an updated review as I mostly play in the Midwest,USA.My fav LV casino for Bac is probably  Bellagio. Even when I stay at other cas I still play at Bellagio some.

Asym:
"This is my list based upon the baccarat average action (number of players) in Vegas casinos (no downtown casinos are considered here).

Good action

- Gold Coast
- Palms
..."


I like Gold Coast. It has been many years since I played at Palms/ have never stayed at their property.


"...Then there are several additional factors to award a "best baccarat tables in Vegas" prize.
Mostly are related to min/max betting limits, HE, general atmosphere, propensity to deal many free hands or dealing a new shoe before the end of it, then average skills and 'composure' of the other players (generally speaking there are more good local players than good tourist players). Etc.

    Yes on free hands. Unfortunately in the Midwest very few casinos will allow free hands. A few allow <=3 per shoe. I try to wait until at least 2-3 players at table. If Im forced to play alone I utilize a 7-series of wagers(aka Gr8 type tiers up/down) that start a few increments above the table minimum(e.g If $25min then start first tier at $35, If $50min I start first tier at $60). Then when I see something I like I then wager my main Base Unit. The 7-series usually takes care of itself(approaches 0 Net), until other players arrive. Then I stop the gr8 series/just make  my main wager.


"...From a strict HE point of view, the best Vegas baccarat casino ever was (or still is, we don't know) the "D" in downtown where Banker winning bets were burdened by a mere 4% vig.
Besides of a short lived experiment made at Sahara casino in the 80s, where there wasn't no commission at all at B winning bets (lol), by far "D" casino offered the best baccarat tables in the history of this game...."

I would love that 4.0% game at D. I think one could get that down to below 3.1 Net. 

"...Besides of a short lived experiment made at Sahara casino in the 80s, where there wasn't no commission at all at B winning bets (lol),...

    They probably still made money near their typical Hold from the majority. Though Im sure a few well-heeled players exploited that situation.



Thanks again for your review/ rankings for the current Bac environment in vegas.


Continued Success,

KFB, as I said, "IMO winning right away or losing right away are both extremely dangerous to one's play and thought process.  Reality is powerful and blinding. You have to push yourself down a path to perform under extreme stressful situations for periods of time. Somehow you have to remove yourself from the stress, but physically remain there performing.  Not easy as so many pretend it is."

Normally for my winning MMM, and this one was certainly one of them, I would have put away the buy-in and applied my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd application.  But I didn't.  Just walked because of what I explained. 

It's just too easy to get caught up in a win, then if a loss comes, the frustration sets in and the chase to recoup what was mine follows. 

Hi KFB!
Thanks for your detailed answer, I appreciated it a lot.

So basically you mean that itlr LLL and WWW will show up by the same average quantity (of course it's correct); if each LLL sequence produces us a 1-1-1 loss (3 units plus the average 1.15% vig when applicable), we need to get a greater than 3.033 (at worst) profit per each WWW sequence showing up.

I'll be back later

as.

Good trip report/congrats. I love to hear when fellow bacsters tag the casino for a quick/big W.

Im optimistic you applied a good MM to the W. Therefore, nothing wrong with leaving after an easy victory.



Congrats,

Hi Asym.
My response to your Q is below.

Asym: "...Can you elaborate this passage of yours?

Sometimes(not always) we may win FIRST (due to skill or luck). Then have the option to:Press to our win, regress to our win, set aside that wager for a perceived better entry, press higher,...etc all the while compounding our initial base unit...."

Sometimes(not always) we may win FIRST (due to skill or luck).

    Meaning sometimes we may win first in the cycles of Ws and Ls. Sometimes these Ws streak will happen irrespective of ones skill (or nonskill--luck). It is my belief it is extremely difficult to go very long without a 3IAR(in-a-row) W streak. Especially if one is not wagering for a same-event repeater.

Then have the option to:Press to our win, regress to our win, set aside that wager for a perceived better entry, press higher,

    Meaning when we win first we have several options(Win first is broadly defined but generally means such as: Get ahead greater than ones base unit, get ahead greater than ones currently pressed up pospro wager/ that is greater than ones Mean wager(or base unit) or whatever a person has deemed a reasonable goal for that shoe or session,...etc.
IMO when we get ahead first we have several options not available to the casino. The casino plays like a robot as they can only match our next move. For example if we are doing a posprogression the casino must do a negative progression. Also, vice versa when a negpro player is chasing a losing streak as the casino is matching the negpros' wager with winnings they just received from the losing player. This robotic requirement by the casino is why they like a negpro player. The player is directly challenging a larger bankrolled opponent with less funds(as well as table limits). The casino looks at the negpro player like Mike Tyson did his opponents(i.e., like a tiger circling his cage saying: "bring it on".)
All the while the casino is nicking all players with a 1.06--1.24% H.E. regardless if W or L.

So it is my opinion one will do better financially in the long run by utilizing a pospro that not only can compound out a spinoff% Yield (Not to confused with Return) that is greater than the H.E. Yet also produce a higher Return. However, one cannot backoff once that pressed-up wager is growing exponentially.
If a player can typically win >=3IAR wagers on a reasonable number of base unit buyin(Say 20-35 units). Then it is my belief one should utilize a posprog vs Flatbet/Negpro wagering regimes.

*What I often see at the tables are players that will utilize a pospro until they get back to even. Then chicken out once the pressed-up wager starts really picking up steam(i.e., compounding) which is typically on that >= 3rd,4th,5th IAR win. Sometimes they will even regress or just be thankful to be back to even/ bring it all down.
Yet the same players will automatically and without hesitation chase a losing streak from hell with everything/every $ in front of them. All the while digging in their pocket for a couple more Benjamins for one final bet. It is my thesis we will all (me too) see almost the same streaks regardless of ones bet selection prowess(or lack of). Though an experienced and skilled player will put together streaks with just a very slightly greater length.


Just my opinion and I welcome counter thoughts.


Continued Success To All,

The other night my friend and I sat down at a brand new shoe just starting. In fact he cut the deck and it was in the range of the cards that we like, which was between a 3-6. 

This was a 5-Treasures layout on a midi (Macau style) table.  We tend to lean a bit towards the Bankers side most times but not set in stone.  Anyways we went to the casino to play possibly 2 or 3 shoes, so figure on 5-7 hours depending on problems and drawn out hands, etc.  So we both buy-in and get set. 

First hand we both wagered Bankers and F7 ($50) and 777s ($25).  Players returned an 8/A and Bankers returned a 7/2.  We both stayed the same and replaced the $75 that was swiped away after the tie. 

Second hand Players returned a 3/9  and Bankers had a Face/10.  Players flopped a 5 and our side flopped a 7 for a beautiful 200:1 3-card 7 both sides tie on the 777s wager.  After the payout and the celebratory actions, we both looked at each other and simply nodded our heads.  A bit larger on the Bankers base bet and the same on the F7 and the 777s wagering.  Most others, if they were on the 777s, actually did not wager again on it, with the exception of a lady seated next to us. 

Third hand Players returned a Blackjack A/10 and the Bankers had a 4/Face.  Players pulled and flopped a 6 card.  I looked at my buddy and told him (as I do you guys and even posted actually pics on here, of the table with the F7 being formed by its third card a 6) of that happening.  Well here is where it gets down and dirty.  The dealer, a super cute young Asian lady pulls the 3rd card from the shoe and is about to slide it to the highest wagering person on the Bankers side, but stalls with a few of her fingernails on the edge of it and says, "if you guys really want a 3, let me flip it".  We all look at each other like it's going to matter and one of us says, "at least if we do, we can blame her for not getting it". 

Pit supervisor comes over and says to the dealer, "are you trying to convince the people you have some kind of magical powers again?"  Well we told her okay.  She doesn't flip it right away, but she picks it up so the back is towards us.  She shakes her head no and slowly and I mean slowly flops it over.  It was a 3.  OMG, High-5s and loud acknowledgements occurred.  Beautiful and almost unprecedented by us back-to-back with the 777s 200:1 wagers. 

We both got up, colored up and planned to cash out and leave after just the 3 hands.  Not our best or greatest win, but probably one of our quickest.  Possibly could have won 20 Xs the amount and as well, could have been blind sided by the ease of it and lost it all and chased what we gave back and then donated our buy-in. 

IMO winning right away or losing right away are both extremely dangerous to one's play and thought process.  Reality is powerful and blinding. You have to push yourself down a path to perform under extreme stressful situations for periods of time. Somehow you have to remove yourself from the stress, but physically remain there performing.  Not easy as so many pretend it is.

Finding a deep sense of meaning with the game that is not totally dependent upon winning. Because you cannot win all the time. And it took me a long stretch of playing the game to learn that.

Winning comes, and when it does you must be able to pour it on, hit it extremely hard and take advantage. But doing so from an outside view looking in, instead of from the player's view of waiting for something special to happen, will allow you great advantage and clarity.  Looking 'in' so to say, will allow you to hopefully not get lost by winning. Getting lost in winning or losing, tends the highest majority of all times to drag you down and make you lose your clarity. And clarity is an advantage in this game.

So what was it like? I will tell you what it was like. It was ecstasy with fresh homemade ice cream, topped with luscious whipped cream and fresh cherries. It was carte blanche to go, fast, quick and without any frustration or thought whatsoever.

But I have respect for the game that is so darn volatile. We went out to eat afterwards and not at the property's steakhouse which we could've easily been comped for. We went off property, out of the casino-out of the realm of the action with possible additional wins and as well where the usual losses are occurring and reoccurring.

At the off property restaurant, where we pay out of pocket of course, we ate and told our stories. We laughed and enjoyed ourselves. And let me tell you something, there was no pressure to drive back a few miles to attempt greater wins at the casino. We were done for the session.  And we rehashed about rebooting and forgetting about those wagers, at least repetitively trying for them in the future. 

Not that I am right or wrong or any of you are in our casino plays. But, as the sage say, "hope comes in many forms".  Looking back now a few days later, our unplanned dinner out with the unpretentious discussion about the few hands we played, actually in total was many fold the time of the session itself, comical and rare but such a memory and always will be.

I am going to borrow a line from someone that I admire. "Relax, sit down and serve yourself up a taste of life".

Click on the following link to read the initial official press release from the US Attorney's Office.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdmi/pr/2024_0307_arrest_casino_heist

Click on the following link to read the guilty conviction of the case.

https://apnews.com/article/michigan-casino-theft-conviction-8ca602f79391bd321d6a960e0b78ae09

Hi Asym--I just responded to your Q but timed out. I may have to retype as I think my response is lost. More later