Recent posts

#1
Roulette Forum / Re: Quadruple Zero Roulette De...
Last post by ADulay - Yesterday at 08:03:19 PM
Triple zero wheels are an abomination.

Quad zero, or whatever they're disguising it as, is just outright greed.

AD
#2
Roulette Forum / Re: Quadruple Zero Roulette De...
Last post by VLS - Yesterday at 04:56:15 PM
Thanks for sharing dear KFB :thumbsup:

BTW! Here's a relevant article from this month about Wynn casino removing Triple Zero Roulette:

https://www.casino.org/vitalvegas/wynn-las-vegas-dumps-triple-zero-roulette-adds-more-perks/

Cheers!
Vic
#3
Other Casinos / Update On The NYC Times Square...
Last post by alrelax - Yesterday at 04:27:19 PM
UPDATE:

NEW YORK — A proposed Caesars Palace casino in Times Square that's backed by Jay-Z lost its bid for a lucrative New York City-area gambling license on Wednesday after running into fierce opposition from Broadway theater owners and producers who were worried about its potential impact on the theater district.

A state-commissioned community advisory committee rejected the $5.4 billion plan to redevelop an office tower into a Caesars-branded hotel, gambling and entertainment complex.


https://wtop.com/national/2025/09/jay-z-backed-plan-for-times-square-casino-loses-bid-for-nyc-license-amid-broadway-opposition/
#4
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - Yesterday at 02:51:24 AM
The long term money you'll win is a by product of the money you haven't lost

As banal as this statement could appear actually is one of the best recipes to consistently collect profits.

Suppose we have two systems to adopt:

a) The preferred system, that is one we particularly like for whatever reasons;

b) The perfect opposite system.

We know that besides some very rare circumstances (of course privileging the (a) method, I guess), both systems are losers itlr for the HE.

But after having tested hundreds and hundreds of shoes shuffled in the same fashion, we'll see that at both systems W and L streaks will show up or stop by a better than expected probability in relationship of how things went so far in the actual shoe.

Obviously it seems better to bet toward positive a) system streaks, yet those streaks are (almost) equally likely to show up while using the b) system so becoming losing streaks.

Cutting a long story short, in order to get long term wins we have to fictionally cut off an equal or almost equal number of losses (that is wins on the other system's side), but this procedure must be partially insensitive of the previous shoe(s) distribution.
The "ploy" not to expect something more due than average without assessing current patterns was set up by not ruling out the possibility (albeit very rare) that the same or correspondent card distribution will be dealt twice or more.
An heaven when things went good at our favor but a terrible and worse nightmare in the opposite scenario.

Therefore and simplyfing a lot, back to back a) or b) system "long" streaks are not coming out around the corner and even less likely are the situations where a kind of overalternating mood stands for "long".
Nothing new: for example run 6 coin flip hands and symmetrical quality patterns are just 4 possibilites (ABABAB, BABABA, AAABBB, BBBAAA) out of 64 possible results.
So 60 patterns are making asymmetry either from a quality (e.g. AABABB) or quantity (e.g. AAAABB) point of view.
 
In real baccarat terms, it's the distribution of back-to-back patterns that counts, in the sense that once a symmetrical pattern had shown up we have to wait for a pattern breaking the previous symmetry then assessing whether the symmetry will stand another time for the new different pattern or conceding room to a more probable asymmetrical one.

Utilizing a 0.75% probability oriented to get an asym pattern (and providing the action of proper random walks), you'll see that first and second winning attempts will come out clustered at least one time (so negating long isolated successions) by percentages getting astounding levels of probability (so profitable edge to exploit) as, again, asymmetry is the norm at baccarat.

An opposite less desirable system to utilize (so privileging the less likely symmetry) should be employed with caution once asymmetrical patterns seem to be silent in relationship of the number of hands dealt, especially when we suspect that the production wasn't randomly distributed.

as.
#5
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Finding An Advantage
Last post by alrelax - September 15, 2025, 10:57:05 AM
You wrote: "I agree with most of your fine post. Some I may differ with a little. I agree limiting the uncertainty is extremely important. Even if we can't eliminate it we can do small things to lessen or lower said uncertainty."

"My belief is that we can apply the math of the game(Probability scales) yet stay in tune on "what this specific shoe is producing". Some times the shoe may initially present as skewed but will generally start settling in to the laws of probability expectations(or at least start approaching limits). Though sometimes the race is cut short and the runners run out of distance. So we may not get to see the comeback from the late-charging runners."

[/quote]


If that was in response to what I wrote; "We tend to wager on what I would define as, expecting certain results. I do believe those are brought about by our inner subconscious and previous experiences with what is actually occurring. And I wholeheartedly believe that is where and why we go wrong on many wagers."

You are correct.  I was not referring to anything along the lines as to what you wrote about as I will wager countless times along the same lines.  Those are not absolutely attempting to coincide with the statistical beliefs of the game to have the shoes produce a 50/49ish outcome, etc.  What you are talking about is equalization, common sense and what most shoes eventually produce in their own secret or semi-secret order. 

But I was not referring to what you wrote to cancel out or not have as some kind of trigger.  Probabilities and staying in tune are spot on advantages.
#6
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Finding An Advantage
Last post by KungFuBac - September 15, 2025, 04:45:30 AM

"...I have found taking the uncertainty out of the picture is truly the key. It is not easy by any means, but you have to. Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage to distinguish more between what is actually happening at the moment (the presentments) and all of the other automatic tendencies to interpret and wager upon your experiences, memories and wagering plan(s) attacks..."

I agree with most of your fine post. Some I may differ with a little. I agree limiting the uncertainty is extremely important. Even if we can't eliminate it we can do small things to lessen or lower said uncertainty.

My belief is that we can apply the math of the game(Probability scales) yet stay in tune on "what this specific shoe is producing". Some times the shoe may initially present as skewed but will generally start settling in to the laws of probability expectations(or at least start approaching limits). Though sometimes the race is cut short and the runners run out of distance. So we may not get to see the comeback from the late-charging runners.

By math of the game I mean: We should constantly be thinking and looking for opportunities to apply probability games with the casino where we are the casino. For example, what is the probability of seeing X and Y, and X or Y, prior to seeing Z, ...etc. I find opportunities are easier to see by looking for events where limits are being approached that we know are very rare or seldom reached (in most shoes).

Yes we will see some shoes that defy math theorems and are what I call "weird" shoes. This is where  money management is paramount. That is, we should have a cut off so we only miss a certain number of wagers (mine is typically two or three), and I stop pursuing that event. Yet I never limit the upside when I am in sync with the results(selecting consecutive winners). This is what I perceive keeps me off extended losing streaks on one single event.

"...Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage..."


Emotional chaos and lack of emotional control is the "achilles' heel" for many players.


Continued Success,
#8
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: A Definitive Vegas Uodate
Last post by KungFuBac - September 15, 2025, 04:10:02 AM
Hopefully the vegas casinos will do a u-turn in the near future. Otherwise the downturn will continue.


https://www.casino.org/news/fee-loathing-the-most-maddening-examples-of-vegas-nickel-diming/
#9
KungFuBac / Re: Tri-State 10-Day Bac Run
Last post by KungFuBac - September 15, 2025, 04:02:34 AM
Addendum to TR above.

Note: The following shoe is shown as continuous and not R x C.

BBB P BBB P BBBTB PP B PP B PP BBBBB PP BTBBB P BBBT P BT P BTBBBBTBBBBBB PP BBB

P BBTBB PPPTP B PP B P B P BBB


It was B 49, P 24, T8 at this stage. Banker reached a shoe high of +26. 

This was a favorable opportunity for me (and two others at the table).  A dealer said approximately 180K departed the table with the majority from Banker wins. Because this was a Tiger Baccarat table(I.e., fewer high odds bonus bets offered), bonus bet payouts to players were lower. So majority of 180K was paid out on base bets(mostly  B). I only wagered for P twice in this shoe.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*On this same trip I was at a table and saw approximately $300K depart the table(A pit staff suggested that was the approximate payout from this shoe),  with most from bonus bets:  3-card/ 2-card Blazing7s, B win on 3c7Fortune 7s, a couple 8-6 bonus bet winners...etc.

I hit two F7s with only $20 so very little of this 300K went into my stack. I didn't approach Tmax on any of my  base bets for this shoe.  I only wagered a few times on F7 yet probably more in this shoe than is typical for me. I did not wager any other bonus bets and typically do not wager for F7s.

Majority of the $300K came from the first 3-card Blazing 7 winners with one player wagering Tmax on the bet. I "think" he won around $60K on that one hand with majority from the Blazing7 . He also hit a 2-card blazing7 winner a short time later in the same shoe.  It took a while for the bonus bets payout after the first 3-card Blazing7 winners. Players from out in the casino at slots/other table games came into the Bac pit to see what caused all the celebrations.

I don't recall ever seeing so much money paid out in a single shoe.
#10
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Finding An Advantage
Last post by AsymBacGuy - September 15, 2025, 02:48:06 AM
You wrote:

We tend to wager on what I would define as, expecting certain results. I do believe those are brought about by our inner subconscious and previous experiences with what is actually occurring. And I wholeheartedly believe that is where and why we go wrong on many wagers.

Probably this is one of the best advice any baccarat player in the world should implement in his/her arsenal.

as.