Wow.

Could they put any more advertising on that web page?

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It's very important to understand that bills are payed by hard work and baccarat makes no exception.

So we better approach the game by realizing that we have to fight with the aim of not losing instead of winning.

It's so hard to win at baccarat itlr that u tube abounds of "new geniuses in town" swearing that for just $50 or $500 you'll break down the house, not mentioning those i.d.iots wagering huge sums and telling us that they are ahead after months of play.

as.

Baccarat is a game of "ranges" that we may consider through infinite different random walks derived from the original BP sequence.

Since all bets are conceived as EV-, we might study how long and how's likely that a given searched situation will happen or not by a decent level of probability capable to erase or possibly inverting at our favor the HE.

So for the purpose of what we're talking about, we'll focus about the probability to encounter S or A patterns considered by their average distribution in terms of isolated or clustered patterns.
Our task is to demonstrate that S and A patterns will show up by a more "detectable" fashion than a pure random (or unrandom) chaotic world would dictate.

Since there's no a long term advantage to linearly betting S or A, we have either to "choose" the situations where A is more likely to show up again or to spot the events where S is more likely to make room to A patterns as in both cases A is the norm and S a kind of "incidental" event.

It's 100% impossible to win by betting all hands or most hands at any shoe dealt, unless you'll utilize a huge betting variation between EV- hands and the rare EV+ spots coming out along the way.

Math experts teach us that every bet is EV- no matter what, a total bighorn.sh.it.
For sure and while wagering a lot of hands, a possible EV+ situation will be diluted by the enormous natural impact of EV- situations.

It's not a coincidence that casinos will lure you into betting a lot of hands, thus enlarging at most their math edge and at the same time giving you the most confused picture of what is going on.

The perfect countermeasure to adopt is to join tables where the minimum wager is at least 10 times lower than your standard bet or, even better, to bet whenever you want.

Fortunately casinos are more worried about a black jack player suddendly raising his $20 bet than when a baccarat player wagering zero or the $1000 minimum bet all of a sudden will place a $10.000 or huger bet and then quitting after winning it.

Reasonably casinos think that a bj player could try to exploit a math edge whereas the bac player cannot spot situations to be more right than wrong by definition.

OoOoO

Suppose we're setting up a couple of players wagering a kind of sky's the limit approach, one wagering toward A-A (clustered A of any lenght) and the other one wagering toward A after a single  S.
Say that to enlarge a possible probability of success, we'll start to bet after a kind of negative deviation happening.
Since we're not i.diots, when a RNG production (unramdom) is in order we'll wait negative deviations (S events) to be clustered one time (S-S). That makes our S-S-A and A-A betting spots to get unmissable profitable opportunities.   

In the other scenarios (so when we'd think the production will be  random), S-A will slightly but constantly overwhelm the S-S counterpart, so  now the A clusters make a minor impact over the overall predictability.

as.

Regarding the symmetry/asymmetry how many first losing attempts come out per every shoe played?
More precisely how many patterns will deny a slight more probable asymmetry at the very first step considered along any shoe dealt?

A better question would be how much "gapped" are those first step asymmetrical patterns on average, a thing that could help us to define better the ranges of intervention.

Catching LONG consecutive first winning spots are more a matter of luck (intended as short term positive variance, of course) than a matter of skills, everything else belongs to a kind of an infinite educated guess about how an average shoe is more likely to show up.

That's especially true when RNG productions will arrange cards by somewhat denying a kind of "clumping" factor, a factor that generally speaking will either make more likely a line or the opposite line to be predominant or to be silent for interesting portions of the shoe.
A distribution typical of a true random movement, and we know beyond any doubt that RNG productions are not random distributions.

More later

as. 

I mentioned a Players IAR run of 9.  From HMoney's notes on this, here is the run of 9.  Although I do not (DO NOT) believe in previously drawn cards influencing the next hand, I do believe in, 'go with what is being presented'. 

P 4/J  flop 4.  B A/K flop Q
P 10/5 flop 4.  B 10/7
P 8/6  flop 5.  B 10/2 flop 9
P 3/5          B A/A
P 2/2  flop 5.  B 6/8 flop 10
P 9/A  flop 5.  B 8/4 flop 2
P 3/10 flop 5.  B 4/2
P 4/9  flop Q.  B 7/3 flop 2

Stop with the likes and dislikes in playing the game of bac.  When you can't beat something, you join it.  Lots of people where I play are not favorites of wagering the Players side. But when they are getting cards to either kill the Bankers side or just squeeze by, $750 or $1,000 or greater on the Players and just keep pulling down the winnings until it cuts, is nice! 

They have to (HAVE TO) do something and it is starting.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/strip-casino-ditching-resort-fees-this-summer-3387482/

Did rather well.  Stayed longer than anticipated, but friend was hell-bent to profit at least $10k and he was hovering around $6-7k.  Finally he did it and we colored up and left Chicago. 

I must say they do not nickel and dime their players, at least those playing black and purple at the bac table for comps.  They offer nice meals and snacks without even having play history once they see what you are wagering, etc.  I'm talking about $50.00-$100.00 comps. 

More later.

Two shoes advise played.

First was extremely choppy in the beginning.  Mostly 2 card draws both sides.  Very close together, like Players 6 and Bankers 7, Or one side a Natural 8 and the other a Natural 9.  8-9 hands. 

Then a Players IAR streak of 9, followed by 2 and 3 IAR Bankers with mostly a single Players hand, maybe one double Players out of at least 12 additional after the 9 IAR appearing. 

1s and 3s the final 20% or so of the shoe. 

Will add additional tomorrow. 

We are staying off property and enjoying some great food places. 

The basic principle is that more hands we try to guess higher will be the probability to lose.

We want to get the lesser impact of symmetrical hands so enhancing the role of the asymmetrical counterpart.
Whenever at the shoe played symmetrical hands tend to be more clustered than average (more than two times in a row by different back-to-back qualities), we could think to stop our betting for that shoe waiting for a new one.

After all symmetrical patterns tend to deny a sure asymmetrical card distribution, in fact a large part of consecutive symmetrical patterns come out from unsound math results, so itlr it's easier to go broke by chasing S patterns than A patterns.

Moreover and differently to any other strategical method, S patterns and A patterns tend to be very well balanced, a thing that could lure us to adopt a (multilayered) progressive plan.

In order to get a sure and safe edge different approaches are to be taken, always by registering fictional losses before betting. Some of them were already discussed here.

1- Bet A one time after A

If you wait that A came out isolated two times in a row (no A clusters happening) then betting toward A-A one time, you'll humiliate the house. If such attempt is lost, wait for another opportunity. 
The edge is so great but so (relatively) rare to happen that you'll risk to get asleep at the tables before crossing it.


2- Bet A-A-A after A-A

Such trigger is so powerful that you need just one isolated AA pattern to happen before betting.
Be careful of RNG productions where it's more prudent to either bet for any AAA cluster no matter what or to wait that two A-A came out before wagering.


3- Bet A after a single S

No need to wait any fictional loss, betting A after a single S will always produce a long term edge, especially at the random walk we've devised (but it costs 8 million of bucks to know it  , so with some work you'll find it for free). Caution must be taken at RNG productions (see point #4)


4- Bet A after a S-S double

Such attack works at unrandom productions and at this point you know what I'm referring to.

5- Isolated A linked with clustered S

This point should be splitted into four categories:

a) A-S-S-A-S-S-A

b) A-S-S-S...-A-S-S-A

c) A-S-S-A-S-S-S...

d) A-S-S-S...A-S-S-S...

Such scenarios are quite rare to happen, obviously just one of them (d) will deny any W situation within a 6-betting range.
Nonetheless we've seen that when in doubt about the real nature of the production we could start to "limit" S events after they had come out twice in a row and even A isolated events could need a low deviation to happen before thinking to get them clustered.
Then and generally speaking, clustered S events tend to make more room to A clusters (so obviously denying subsequent S patterns to be isolated).

Finally "long" isolated A sequences (actually we are interested about lenghts of two not going to three or more) are way more probable to come out intertwined by S isolated events than S clustered events.

See you next week

as. 

  Tried to take a pic of the score board but the floor people had an atomic fit about it.

Played half a shoe (second half), mostly chop chop and some doubles.  Did pretty good.  We are going to play another shoe in bit from the beginning. 

First half of the shoe had a run of 11 for the Players and a run of 6 Bankers followed by a single Player and then 7 additional Bankers.