AsymBacGuy. Good thread/ hope this finds you doing well.

Asym in post #1179:

"...a) Outcomes are randomly distributed? It's a total bighorn.sh.it.

b) Yes, any bet is "supposed" to be EV-, but there are more probable ranges where the EV is at least 0 (think about those hands not forming an asymmetrical hand favoring the Banker side) or where a "normal" flow is slightly more entitled to go toward the right side (CFS) at some points of the infinite shoe sub successions we can build up.

c) Gambling experts do not know a fkng nothing about how the randomness will work at baccarat.
Mainly as they haven't properly considered the RVM and M.V. Smoluchowski "theories" applied to slight dependent and asymmetrical finite successions.
Conclusion is that bac successions aren't randomly distributed. Period...."


Qs for you.

Approximately how many wagers do you make on average per shoe??
Do you ever wager bonus bets? (e.g., T,Panda,Fortune, Pairs,...etc)


Thx in advance.





Continued Success,

Good shoe/congrats on catching so many Ws.

"...Caught 9 players hands in that players streak with a few full parlays.  Same with the bankers streak as well...."

    Personally I do not think I would have done as well as u, Re:The 9iar P streak.
I "think" I would have caught the P2nd--5th with a full press or parlay+ from P2 to P3(maybe into the P4th), then pospro continued but less %press through the 5th W, (set aside that highest wager following the 5thP(my 4th W) for later reentry into this shoe or latter shoe).

Then reduced to about 3 increments above my (Mean Losing Bet) thus far in the whole shoe and finished out the P run from W5 onward regressing $5 on each successive W through the 9th W, never wagering less than my base unit.
    I doubt I would have made any bonus bets.


Continued Success,
   
   

I could see the EzBac owners pitching this to the current casino customer as well as to potentially new cas:

"...Galaxy is also enhancing the venerable EZ Baccarat game, which hadn't changed since its introduction 18 years ago. Reback said operators may choose to add the Golden Talons and Divine 9 side bets to complement the Dragon 7 and Panda 8 of the original game, with no increase in the operator fee..."

    I would think that most cas would bite on the idea of getting an additional two bonus bets on the layout (without paying additional licensing rights above the current rate),...etc.

Reback also added: ..."Reback said the additional bets will not impact on the speed of the game, a key part of its attraction for operators and players. "These two side bets are extremely easy to resolve, as easy as Dragon 7 and Panda 8." He added that several operators have asked for additional EZ Baccarat side bets..."

    Im most certainly sure the casinos are asking for more bonus side bets. However, it is my opinion the casinos' Hold may not increase as a direct function of (more bonus bets = more Hold) or at least the increase won't be in proportion.
Players will likely still buyin for their typical amount(say $1000) and if they do indeed feel enticed to wager the addendum bonus wagers they will still only bust the same "typical buyin" amount($1000). Most likely busting buyin a little sooner,...etc.

Just a quick thought as I seldom wager any of the bonus bets.

Well, let's face it, games can be thrown by certain people with financial interest in them.  From athletes to referees to coaches.  Here is an example of one QB in pro sports a while back.  Interesting how the FBI was involved as well.  Also, IMO once a gambler, always a gambler.  Read the following.

From the Wiki on Art Schlichter:

Schlichter was picked fourth in the 1982 NFL draft by the Colts franchise, then based in Baltimore, Maryland. Expected to be the starter, Schlichter lost the job to Mike Pagel, the Colts' fourth-round pick in that year, when he appeared at practice out of shape and in a distracted state of mind. However, he was expected to be the Colts' quarterback of the future.

Schlichter's gambling continued unabated, to the point that he blew his entire $350,000 signing bonus by midseason. Even before the Colts picked him, he already owed bookies several thousand dollars. His gambling spiraled out of control during the 1982 NFL strike, when he lost $20,000 betting on college football. By the end of the strike, he had at least $700,000 in gambling debts. Years later, he said his massive losses stemmed from desperate efforts to make good his previous losses. After losing $20,000 in the first week of the strike, he doubled up the next week and lost again—starting a cycle that would continue for over a year.

In the winter of 1982 and the spring of 1983, Schlichter lost $489,000 betting on basketball games. When bookies threatened to harm or expose Schlichter if he did not pay up (the NFL, like most major professional leagues, forbids its players from engaging in any kind of gambling activity, legal or otherwise), he went to the FBI in March 1983 and gave information that helped get the bookies arrested on federal charges. He also sought help from the NFL, as he feared the bookies would force him to throw games in return for not telling the Colts about his activities. The league suspended him indefinitely, but Commissioner Pete Rozelle reduced the suspension to thirteen months after Schlichter agreed to seek treatment for his gambling addiction. He was the first NFL player to be suspended for gambling since Alex Karras and Paul Hornung were suspended in 1963 for betting on NFL games.

Schlichter was reinstated for the 1984 season but later admitted that he'd gambled during his suspension (though not on football). He was released five games into the 1985 season, in part because the Colts heard rumors that he was gambling again. As it turned out, he had lost a significant amount of money over the spring and summer while playing golf and wrote one of his golfing partners a check for $2,000. The check was to be cashed after the season started. However, when the golfing partner contacted the Colts to see if the check was good, team and league officials feared Schlichter had relapsed. The NFL wanted Schlichter to take a polygraph test, but Colts coach Rod Dowhower had already seen enough and pushed the Colts front office to release him.

It would be Schlichter's last meaningful action in the NFL. He signed as a free agent with the Buffalo Bills in the spring of 1986. However, his tenure in Buffalo effectively ended when the United States Football League (USFL) collapsed. Jim Kelly, the Bills' 1983 first-round pick, had bolted to the USFL instead but signed with the Bills when the league "won" its antitrust lawsuit ($1.00 damages trebled to $3.00); the Bills had intended all along for Kelly to be their quarterback. With Kelly now firmly in the Bills fold, Schlichter's services were no longer necessary. He sat out the 1986 season after no other team expressed interest.

In January 1987, Schlichter was arrested in New York City for his involvement in a multimillion-dollar sports betting operation. He pleaded guilty to illegal gambling in April and was sentenced to probation. That arrest came back to haunt him that summer. The Cincinnati Bengals saw enough promise in Schlichter that they were willing to bring him on as Boomer Esiason's backup. However, Rozelle vetoed the deal, citing the January arrest.  Rozelle let it be known that he would not approve any NFL contract for Schlichter that season, costing him valuable work when the National Football League Players Association went on strike that year. He made another bid for reinstatement in 1988 but was turned down. That same year, he filed for bankruptcy to shield himself from creditors.

In parts of three seasons, Schlichter played only thirteen games, primarily in backup or "mop-up" roles. He made only six starts, losing them all. He threw 202 passes and completed 91 of them. He threw three touchdown passes and eleven interceptions. He amassed a quarterback rating of only 42.6 and is considered one of the biggest draft busts in NFL history. In 2007, Schlichter was listed as the #7 all-time draft bust on the NFL Network's Top 10 Draft Busts episode. In an updated list from 2010, Schlichter was moved to the #4 draft bust of all time,[18] and in a video listing the top ten quarterback draft busts of all time, Schlichter was listed #3, behind JaMarcus Russell (#2) and Ryan Leaf (#1). In 2007, Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports named Schlichter the worst #4 pick since the AFL-NFL merger, writing that Colts fans long felt chagrin that Jim McMahon was taken by the Chicago Bears with the very next pick. McMahon would lead the Bears to victory in Super Bowl XX during Schlichter's final NFL season. In 2021, The Athletic named Schlichter the worst #4 pick since the merger, noting that the Colts selected him with McMahon and future Hall of Fame running back Marcus Allen on the board.

Schlichter said years later that he was distracted for much of his NFL career. He went through a messy break-up with his girlfriend before his rookie season with the Colts, and the ensuing depression led him to gamble more. Schlichter believed the accolades he received after his sophomore year at OSU diminished his drive, and the pressure of living up to that praise led him to gamble as an outlet.

After spending 1987 out of football, Schlichter signed a contract with the Ottawa Rough Riders of the Canadian Football League (CFL) in 1988. He was named the starter out of camp and saw his first meaningful game action in three years. However, he suffered broken ribs from a hit midway through the season. The Rough Riders placed him on injured reserve for thirty days then released him.

Schlichter played for the Detroit Drive of the Arena Football League (AFL) in 1990 and 1991, where he was named MVP in the former en route to winning ArenaBowl IV. His AFL success was attributed to his frequent deep passes, which caught opposing defenses off guard in an era when most AFL offenses relied on short passes. Ahead the 1992 season, Schlichter was traded to the expansion Cincinnati Rockers, with league officials believing his popularity in Ohio would generate interest for the franchise. Schlichter helped lead the Rockers to the playoffs in their inaugural season, but announced he was retiring from football that October. Although he said he intended instead to focus on his radio career and curing his gambling addiction, evidence later came to light that Schlichter was forced to retire rather than face being banned from the league for betting on AFL games.

3 sections is the way I played the shoe, up to the 60th hand or so when I stopped in section C anyways.

Last night.  Played the majority of the hands shown in this one shoe, about 3/4 of a full shoe as you see here.  Followed what was happening most times and lost the last wager of course and then started on the next presentation.

Caught 9 players hands in that players streak with a few full parlays.  Same with the bankers streak as well.

THE 4 HANDS PRIOR TO THE 3 IAR NATURALS IN THE PLAYERS STREAK:  A bit unique.

P First two = 0.  B First two = 7. Players third card was an 8.  Players 8 over 7.

P First two = 5.  B First two = 6.  Players third card was a 6.  Bankers third card was a 4.  Players 1 over 0.

P First two = 3.  B First two = 2.  Players third card was a 9.  B third card was also a 9.  Players 2 over 1.

P First two = 6.  B First two = 5.  Bankers third card was a 10.  Players 6 over 5.

All four hands players won by 1 point.  Now on to the 3 back to back naturals.


THE 3 IAR NATURALS IN THE PLAYERS STREAK:

First one in group of three:  Players Natural 9 over B Natural 8.

Second one in group of three:  Players Natural 9 over B Natural 8 again.

Third one in group of three:  Players Natural 8 over B 7. 

Once again all 3 Natural players hands won by 1 point.

That made 7 IAR players hands winning by 1 point.  2 cards, 3 card reductions, naturals, etc. 

And of course that fueled the majority of the people playing to wager heavy banker, because they were convinced that was the pattern/trend showing the players would quickly fall off and cut. 

Does the casino care that a few of us were physically banging them and cleaning up?  Of course not!  Why?  Because, they still make money by taking in all those heavy losing bankers bets and paying out the few of us that were winning all the players bets.  Gotta love it!

I contribute three things to my success with this shoe.  One, Low Ties-0-1-2-3.  Two, Equalization.  Three, defining sections and wagering heavy after the start of each.

Below picture is a non commission Bad Beat bac table with a $5,000.00 max per hand limit.  It is also a MIDI/Macau style players peel the cards.  Note what I did to the 8 card peeling it back.  $20.00 three card 8/9 wager, 200:1, dealer is cutting out my win as I snapped the picture.

A great view in the morning traveling east.

Well, I might have posted a picture of my little buddy here a few years back.  Actually misplaced him and never really searched for him.  Came across him under a pile of clothes in a drawer the other night.

I bring him in my pocket to the casino and occasionally when I or the entire table are calling for a monkey, pull him out.  Yes, he is solid gold and about the size of a thumbnail. 

Call it superstitious or quackery, it does bring smiles and pats on the back when it works. 

Quotealelax above:

"...If I am not within the same days drive from the casino I go to, I am fine staying at a local motel (paying out of pocket) and eating at non casino restaurants 100%.  Although most places I play, $30-$50 meal comps are almost never a problem.  However, I just don't really enjoy the same places with the same menus.  Coupled with the aura of being in the casino versus outside of it, 'in the free world'. ..."

    I agree 100% about getting out of the casino for fresh air/ to let my brain calm down from all the bells/sirens from the slots.
I usually play during the day /during week at most of my casino markets. However, one market I go to on weekends or maybe (thurs-fri-sat) has five casinos and typically I meet a group there every couple weeks. I often get a Hampton Inn ($90--105), especially if my wife travels with me, that is about 15mins from each casino. I then book/give my free rooms at two of the cas to group members that have driven in from out of state. WinWin for everyone and I can play at any of them for as much or little as I desire(& eat wherever I want).

A lot of people will not agree or understand, but a good hit of thousands of dollars quickly or even if fought for, with a recovery of the drawdown and then a subsequent good hit, the brain is not in full untouched consciousness and very very physiologically aroused and with increased stimulated emotions that will probably affect your wagering decisions. 

Although I am in no way a psychiatrist or any kind of neurologist, I know how the brain functions and how  truly unaffected total consciousness without stimuli is an advantage, we all get sucked in and fall prey. 

And, taking the above into consideration, the following I attempt to adhere to.

Yes, I rather be in an off property motel/hotel and eat elsewhere by far.  On property, no matter if I am pushing even or winning, I am still thinking of those tables out on the floor within a few minutes walk.  Uncomfortable.  Meanwhile, if off property there is a whole other sense of comfortableness I encounter. 

Local restaurants, different foods and varied atmospheres I rather surround myself with rather than on property.