+ Register

[Xander]

If every spin is independent of past decisions, why on the earth, since roulette got invented, none has seen 50 consecutive hits of an EC?
Why no 10 consecutive his of a number ever came? -Albalaha

The probability of seeing a number hit ten times in a row is (1/37)^10.   Maybe someone has for all we know, but the odds of it hitting that many times in a row are very low since there are 36 other numbers on the wheel. 

                                      Independence of a single spin does not mean that every spin is free to generate any outcome till infinite. It only means that looking at past outcomes, u can't decide any better bet in one single spin.
        Collective probability of many consecutive spins and probability in one spin, are different. -Albalaha

On any spin, regardless of what has hit in the past, any one of the 37 numbers can hit.  For example: If you've just witnessed nine consecutive hits on the number four, the probability of it hitting on the tenth spin is still 1/37.  Randomness has no limits.

It seems people enjoy to be mislead. -Albalaha

Yes, I'm part of a vast conspiracy along with other experts and mathematicians to hide the true nature of roulette and basic probability from people like you.  We all secretly coordinate and plan to mislead you all.  We have secret meetings, and we even have a top secret handshake.   

On a more serious note, there are plenty of people on various math and physics forum, like myself, that could teach and mentor you on roulette and basic probability for free.  Also try the wizardofvegas forum.

-Xander

[Albalaha]

Randomness has no limits.

     It shows how much you know about randomness and probability. I won't argue with you because it would be like talking to a wall. Enjoy your brilliance.

[esoito]

OK. Both agree to disagree and leave it at that.

[Then things won't start getting too heated, and I have to officially intervene.]

[XXVV]

Well answered Albalaha.
R.

[greenguy]

What is a rare event? Can someone explain it please?

I mean when is it considered rare, and when is it not?

Is there a specific point at which an event moves into the rare zone or is it a fuzzy logic thing?

[wannawin]

What is a rare event? Can someone explain it please?

Maybe I should give my concepts clearer. It is valid to ask this question. I am referring to an event that does not normally occur in sets comprising a normal game session.

For example if my game sessions are 100 spins. in 40 sessions I only see a row of many reds in 3 sessions of them. Many more than the expected in a term of 100 spins. For me to be in the presence of one of these sessions is a rare event.

[greenguy]

Thank you for explaining but if you play 40 sessions of each 100 spins then you have witnessed 4000 spins so you should expect some rare events as per probability which renders them not so rare after all.

If you are hoping to catch one of these rare events without having to witness the whole 4000 spins then I think luck will play a part.

You could try to continuously play the most recent dominant EC over a short burst and stop to wait if others catch up then play again when one is dominant. This way you could almost guarantee your bets would be riding on at least some of the "rare event" when it happens.

Randomness has no limits.

Yes randomness should have no limits, but it also has no knowledge of how to find out if that is true, so it will never extend beyond some reasonable boundries. This is where gamblers hope to find an edge. Within the reasonable boundries set by the lack of skill and knowledge possessed by randomness. 

[carpanta]

 
On a more serious note, there are plenty of people on various math and physics forum, like myself, that could teach and mentor you on roulette and basic probability for free.  Also try the wizardofvegas forum.

-Xander

The more you know about math and physics the less you'll be apt to beat the game.
Your mindset with such knowledge is a handicap to understand chance behaviour.
On average you'll have the same rate of wins and losses playing same amount of numbers.
Now have a look how they do in your personal permanence and you'll have an answer to find a way to do well while playing roulette.
Dispersion and concentration affect your decisions as well as everything in nature, private life, job,......
Things come in series, intermitences so why wouldn't Ws and Ls have a similar behaviour?


Regards,
Carlos.

[Gizmotron]

I have spoken about extremes that are few and far between. The discussions occur under the topic "Elegant Patterns."  A sequence of spins can form into perfect repeating patterns. I've discovered them in the dozens. That's any dozen. You can make up your own. What happens is that the same dozen keeps hitting either in a streak or in the same repeating pattern. It's  not just a dominance, but a perfect sequence without error. At times like these you can place bets as if you know future outcomes. Now mathematically there is nothing to prevent them from occurring. There are no figures published that say when they will occur or for how long they will last. It takes a craftsman to see and exploit them.

For many years I have been criticised for suggesting their existence. What I find far more interesting is that nobody else has reported exploiting them or even having seen one of them. A common one is the same dozen sleeping for more than thirty spins in a row. The more rare is a same dozen hitting in a perfect sequence as a pattern of some kind. You will never see anything if you are not looking.

Seeing opportunities comes from instant recognition due to visual dexterity  caused from viewing properly illustrated spin results, charts.

[Albalaha]

Randomness does have a virtual limit. It is not possible to get infinite variance. Those who haven't observed the game enough and merely read a few lines like, "every spin is independent of all previous ones" or "a million monkeys can type a work of Shakespeare" or " it is possible to get even 100 reds in a row" are misinformed people and they never bothered to see the randomness' reality.
            Have a look to see the virtual limit of randomness: http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/13069557/Virtual-limits-of-different-bets-of-roulette#.U5RPtHKSxhU

[VLS]

On a more serious note, there are plenty of people on various math and physics forum, like myself, that could teach and mentor you on roulette and basic probability

Xander, would you like to have a section dedicated to the concepts of statistics and probabilities?

Not to mention serving as an ordered place for the fellows to point to and be directed towards when dealing with those very matching topics which recurrently appear. A quality model with your brand.

...How about naming it "Xander's Cookies"? --You know, because of the cookies & BIAS folk-minted relationship

It would be really great to have you in command of an open educational space about roulette's math.

Cheers!

[Xander]

Victor,

Thanks for the offer.     But no, I'd rather not have a section.  Someone else will have to mentor Albalaha.

Randomness does have a virtual limit. It is not possible to get infinite variance. Those who haven't observed the game enough and merely read a few lines like, "every spin is independent of all previous ones" or "a million monkeys can type a work of Shakespeare" or " it is possible to get even 100 reds in a row" are misinformed people and they never bothered to see the randomness' reality.
            Have a look to see the virtual limit of randomness: http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/13069557/Virtual-limits-of-different-bets-of-roulette#.U5RPtHKSxhUAlabalaha

Variance is only limited by the size of the sample.  For example, 101 reds, obviously, can't hit in a row if the game is only 100 spins.

Now to correct Albalaha  [smiley]aes/wink.png[/smiley]:  If the wheel did not have a zero, in a game of 100 spins, 100 reds in a row could hit.  In such a game, there would be 2^100 possible patterns that could occur.  And all red is one of the possible patterns.  All black is also one of the possible patterns.  The reason that you will likely never witness all red is because there is only a 1/2^100 chance that the unique red pattern will hit.  However, there's a 1 - (1/2^100 ) that another pattern will hit.  In other words, there are a gazillion possible patterns, other than red that can hit, but all red is only one of them. In the end, that one pattern that does hit could be considered an extremely rare event to the person that was perhaps looking for it from the very first spin.   




In the end, the wheel is a rare event generator.

-Xander

[Turner]

Victor,



In the end, the wheel is a rare event generator.

Absolutely correct !!!.


I've been banging on about this for years.


You can make a group of 18 that has hit 24 times any time you like (see example below) Just collect and count from the first spin. The repeats are more hits.


If you select a set of 18 you will wait a long time to see them do anything rare. Like red, or high or odd.


You may deem line 1-6 to be hot  if no.1 has hit twice and no.5 has hit once. Why does 1 and 5 hitting mean 2,3,4,and 6 will hit? It doesn't. There is no reason for it to. But in the numbers below, the 6-group 20,25,11,3,10,14 has hit 7 times right off the bat. don't go looking for it. It happens every spin.  All rare events are produced all the time.


We are hoodwinked into looking at about 20 of them....lines, dozens, ECs.,,,waiting endless years!!!!


Random is producing the hottest stuff every spin.






First spins of a random.org selection.

20
25
11
11
3
10
14
11
13
23
34
30
33
21
6
35
4
2
1
23
18 xxx    Here is a group of 18 which has hit 21 times (without searching)
16
12
15
12

[Turner]

I thought that there were no patterns?  Now every thing is a pattern.

Not quite Garnabby, what I am saying is if you want patterns, don't sit around for 20 years looking at casino created carpet patterns, random is producing them every spin.


There are 2.3million groups of 6 in 37, and 1,2,3,4,5,6 is just one of them. Every spin, there is a 6 group hitting 6 or 7 or 8 times.


How many could that hit?  1,5,22,22,5,1,5,5,22,24,26,1,22,5,33 ?


Albalaha tells us lines only hit 9 times. that's a limit of random. I just made up a group of 6 which hits 15 in a row. Could this sequence never happen?

[Turner]

And, it's better to focus on the individual recognizable patterns instead of the next bet per se.

Sorry Garnabby, just expand that a little. I could take that 2 ways....I want to get what you meant


Thanks