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[peleus]

Anyone getting much luck on roulette? Maybe it's just me but I always end up losing on roulette.

[Sputnik]

Is not so strange and the best thing you can do is to play for fun.
I am pretty sure you can get higher strike ratio and win more.

First mentaly try to win two session out of three and go home.
Not staying to long in the casino and not try to win back loses on a bad night.

Overall that will make you feel better.

I also think you should try to use small win targets and push when you are on a good strike.
Brett Mortons Money Management is perfect.

Two questions.

What amount makes you happy to go home with after visiting the casino.
How much are you prepeared to risk to win that amount of money.

- - - - - - - - - -

This is the best solution i find regarding this topic - Brett Mortons Money Management Method - from the book "Playing to win".

I find Brett Morton's "Fund Management" being very clever.
Does not just sett a limit for stop loss with win goal - it also show when to push for jackpot (push for more).
It also has built in safety net that catch before it is to late (avoid to lose it all back).

With all the necessary componets to define a present session.
When to start when to quit when to push or be catch by a safety net before its to late.

PROGRESS UP THE LADDER - PLAY AND PUSH OR FALL INTO SAFETY NETS



Now what amount make me happy - i would say for example 50 Euro, that would feel ok or great.
So that should be my Happy-Point,,, the first win-target.

Loss-Limit should not be more then my Happy-Point so now i have the Loss-Limit of 50 Euro.
That was easy to set up does guide lines based upon this money management strategy.

50 Loss-Limit
50 Happy-Point

This is how Brett Morton does it.
But nothing prevent us to set higher loss-limit and lower Happy-Point.

Now when or if i reach Happy-Point and want to continue to next win target Gold-Top - then i can't lose it all as there is a Bottom Line Target - "safety net" - that stops me from losing it all.
I set the BTL (bottom line target) 10 Euro as i want as much money i can get to continue for next win target and in the same time not go home with a empty wallet.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

That would mean i would have 40 to fight with to reach my secound win-target (Gold-Top).
And if i would lose it all back, then i would stop with +10 as my safety net (Bottom-Line-Target).

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

Now i don't want to rush things so i aim for 70 as Gold-Top - the second win target.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top

Lets assume i win and don't stopp at Happy-Point or stopp at Gold-Top and continue for Jackpot.
Then i can only use the money between Happy-Point and Gold-Top to grind out profits (that would be 20).
Then Happy-Point is my secound safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

You can adjust this strategy as you feel like.
Brett Morton say that you should have Loss-Limit around the same amount as Happy-Point.
But he also say he stop playing many times before he reach first win-target.
Bottom-Line-Target you can set to minimum so you have more money to fight whit as you play for next win target.

So when you walk into the casino or at home you make up your money management plan.

Loss-Limit
Bottom-Line-Target
Happy-Point
Gold-Top
Jackpot

Now you can look at the image again and you will understand.


 

[Sputnik]

For exampe you would play even money bets.

200 Loss-Limit
10   Bottom-Line-Target
40   Happy-Point
60   Gold-Top
??    Jackpot

Table minimum might be 10, then you get a small spread of units, around 20 units and that is not easy if you going to aim to win 20%.
But you can still play even money bets with tables with high minimum, you just play three lines with regualar chips.
So if minimum is 2 for stratight up number and you cover three lines, then you only have to place 6 and that is allmost half of 10.
Now you have around 40 unit spread and you might find it more easy to develop a staking plan with your bet selection.
(playing 3 lines is the same thing as playing high/low)

[Sputnik]

Why are we losing?

This is based upon my opinion.

My first point.
One thing i been thinking about is to cut loses short, that the game is about not losing to much.
Then the winnings will take care of the other side of the coin.

Lets say i have 100 and win target 20.
Then if i don't reach my 20 direct ,,, and are down 20 i should aim to break even and not push for +20 - then i hade to travel +40 to reach that goal.
If i am down -20 i only have to travel to 0 and bet same distance as from 0 to +20.
This means i can reach my win goal twice with the same probability and distance or betting.
I regard +20 or break even as winning as there is no loses and get there betting the same.

That is one way cut loses short.
After that if i would be down -40 is time to accept loses or maybe fight back to -20 and stop.
As the distance or traveling/betting would be the same as the first indication to reach win goal or break even.

This is my line of thinking why we lose at roulette, we need strict and clever rules when it comes to money management.
And this put me to my other point of view.

My secound point of view:
I think there is a false positive thinking i can win 20% (a low win-target) to win more regulary.
Sure it cut loses short but i don't end up winning in the long term.
Lets say i win five days in a row +20 +20 +20 +20 +20 then the sixth day i lose my 100 and i am back at 0.
I gave it all back.

I belive we need to generate more money when we play and set win-targets.
Using a money management method that allow us to push for more with out giving it all back.

For example if i win +20 +35 +40 +25 +10 during five days and bust at the sixth day with 100,,, then i still have +30.
Because my win-target was 20% but i push for more and some time succed or hit saftey net.
The only method that allow for this is John Patrick and Brett Mortons Money Management methods.
I still read and learn from that and think that is very important to cut loses short.

I call this the 20/100 flaw that we have to overcome.

My third point.

Sometime i ask my self that we all develop ways to play roulette in the wrong way.
For example when you read gambling forums - then the most common thing you see is one bet selection and one progression - no more or less.
We know that will not work and still all continue in the same way.

My point is that we should start from the Money Management rules first.
For example i sett a win-target of 40 and that would make me happy.
Then i know what makes me happy and feel good to go home, the reason why i gamble.
Now the question comes what i am prepeared to risk to win 40
Lets say 200.

Here it comes, i have 200 and if the minimum bet on the table is 10 i only get 20 bets flat betting and less using a progression.
Now the Money Management tell me the rules and limits i have to deal with, i can not use any kind of sloppy method.
The staking plan has limits and same goes for bet selection.
So i can not just create a mehtod with a 12 progression.

No one start from this end when developing methods.

[Sputnik]

I also think you should buy "Roulette Extreme" from UXsoftware.
http://www.uxsoftware.com/pages/index.html

This simulation software allow you to download real casino results and play with them (as you would in real casino).
And you have RNG.

With this simulation software you can test all you methods or strategys and see how they win or lose.
A great way to prepear your self before going to the casino and spend real money.

[Sputnik]

Here is another alternative:

Don't tune or scoff out until you have digested the whole package, as one word may put you off, which is "Martingale", but hang on in here.

Lets throw in the sales pitch.

How to turn £75 into £5250 or $150 (for those across the ditch into over $10,000) for approx 28 hours of table action. Sound interesting?

YES, you do need a certain element of luck. Now we know you can't expect to be lucky all the time. You only need to be lucky for two hours. Yes TWO LOUSY HOURS from the on-set, you may not make it all the way, but it won't cost you anything either.

While people do not see eye to eye regarding bet selection, really it is a defensive mechanism, they need to convince themselves more than anybody else. In essence bet selection is a lottery. Each bet is a 50/50 bet, what happens after X is a lottery. No worries 'bout what you think, this can also suit your mindset.

Let's revisit a set of 4 column binary tables;

1---BBBB
2---PBBB
3---BPBB
4---PPBB
5---BBPB
6---PBPB
7---BPPB
8---PPPB
9---BBBP
10-PBBP
11-BPBP
12-PPBP
13-BBPP
14-PBPP
15-BPPP
16-PPPP

Note I have numbered all possible outcomes. Your aim using a 4 step martingale is to play 10 columns per day, less than ONE SHOE per day maximum and to avoid any 4 column loss.

For those that the progression Martingale leaves a bad taste, bear in mind, the total risk is the initial £75 or $150, if you can't afford to risk that amount, then read no further, or remind yourself of the 5 g's or 10k plus potential..

Your aim is to make 10 units per day (maybe 11 if you want to cater for the tax, or maybe you might choose to wear that small cost), not a dime more. Your aim is to repeat this for 7 days straight, remember, your exposure is minimum as you will not play more than 40 or 44 hands any one day. Any 4 column loss and you quit.

You need to avoid any 4 column loss for the first TWO DAYS ONLY, >> less than one shoe per day <<
Should you lose 4 hands on the bounce on the third day, you will still be in profit.

Should you manage to not lose for SEVEN days, on the second week, you double your unit size, should you lose when you double your unit size, you are still in profit. Again repeat the exercise for the next seven days.

NOTE* you can withstand two losses per week and still remain in profit, this excludes the first two days. Your odds of losing 4 bets in a row is less than 6%, which means your odds of winning a bet in any four bet sequence is just over 93%.

Should you manage to avoid any 4 column loss during the second week, again you double your unit value from £10 or $20, should you lose on day 15, you are still in profit. You just lost £300 but made £700 the previous week, how you determine the stake level for tomorrow is up to you, either drop down or press on, you can withstand 2 losing days per week.

If you have made it this far and only played 10 or 11 (due to tax) columns of 4 for the last 21 days and avoided defeat you double your betting amount for the final time.

NOTE* thus far this whole exercise has been SELF FUNDING.

Should you manage to avoid losing 4 in a row for the final week, you have just turned your initial stake of £75 into £5250 for approx 28 hours of table play, or $150 into over $10000, that's about 4 days work.

Week 1 - goal target £50 daily, weekly goal £350 - risk £75
Week 2 - goal target £100 daily, weekly goal £700 - risk £150
Week 3 - goal target £200 daily, weekly goal £1400 - risk £300
Week 4 - goal target £400 daily, weekly goal £2800 - risk £600

Maximum Total profit should you avoid 4L within 28 hours is £5250 less tax or for US based players over ten thousand dollars for a $150 stake. Other than the initial stake, IT IS SELF FUNDING.

Now take a deserved break and start again from the bottom. Does what you are currently playing carry a risk? Well so does this, so in this respect things are equal.

The risk is limited to £75 or $150, the rewards are greater than what you would ordinarily hope for given the amount of bankroll. If 100 players tried this, not all would be lucky, some would be. All that matters is surviving the first two days.

OK - the bet selection;

It really doesn't matter, either mathematically or logically.

If you believe in trending, then wait for one column of four and use the bet selection SAME. If you don't believe in trending maybe use the bet selection OPPOSITE. Random is probably the best.

If you don't care either way, maybe choose any one of the above 16 options and stick with it. Mathematically each sequence is suppose to occur once every 60 hands, be aware it doesn't always work out like this.

Maybe put the numbers I have associated with the 4 column options into a hat to determine your bet selection, it really doesn't matter. Perhaps omit the numbers 6 and 11 as these are the most common options for any 4 hand sequence. Don't lose sight of the total risk £75 or $150 and the potential reward.

Perhaps play each sequence in numerical order, that is bet option 1 followed by option 2 then option 3 etc. Logically it doesn't make any difference.

Should you lose for example on your fourth column, then that is it for that day, come back tomorrow and restart. You need SEVEN clear days of 10 units profit before doubling your playing stake.

The risk is carried for the first two days only, after that it is >> SELF FUNDING.

You could increase the risk and odds of not losing, by using a 5 column approach. You now have a 96% chance of scoring a win, however you would need to adjust you daily win target to 20 units, and would be playing that a particular 5 hand sequence from 32 possible sequences doesn't hit you for 20 columns..

$150 into over 10 "large" for 4 days effort!!!!!


Should this approach fail inside of the first two day, you would need to win 15 times just to get back to even. Then win another 10 times to progress from first base.

If you had a bankroll greater than £75 or $150 you might want to use the balance to construct recovery option for the first two days only.

Say you lost 15 units before you make 10 units. You then use the rest of your bankroll to recoup then continue where you left off. Few ways to do this, either use another martingale on top (lots of risk), or double your playing stake and use a Labby to win say 8 units, or possibly a Fibonacci, again to win either 15 units or 8 units if you doubled your initial stake size.

Nothing stopping somebody from playing two sessions per day, then you might achieve your goal in two weeks. Give yourself a decent break in between sessions. Yes I have explored this and I have found associating a numeric value to each of the possible outcomes of a Binary chart, as outlined above playing them simply in order 1,2,3,4 etc. faired best [random versus random]. You are either going to win or lose, the initial stake is not that great.

If you decided to play the options sequentially, option 1 is BBBB, you need to decide if you will bet the same as BBBB or the opposite of BBBB, which of course would be would be PPPP, It all works out the same, you're playing with of 15/1 odds no matter what.


Yes IT WILL lose eventually, will you be at the table when it does? Your nemesis has to catch you when you are playing, one of the reasons I state, play less than ONE SHOE per day.

Hence the reason make 10 units then bail. It can even lose when you are at the table, however it is the first 2 days which are crucial, after that, so long as you don't get back to back losing days you will be OK, again hence the reason to limit your exposure.

It really doesn't matter how you determine your bet selection. £5k or $10k for 28 hours graft, minimal risk "$150", cheaper than a few weeks worth of lottery tickets and better odds. 

Don't try and fast track this, by betting every hand, I would suggest that if anybody used other modes of play, that involves betting every hand, it wouldn't work. Losing 4 bets in a row when betting every hand is a whole lot easier than losing 4 bets for any given predetermined column sequence of bets.

The aim is to TRY and turn 75 quid or 150 bucks into £5 bricks or $10 large for 28 hours at the tables. As I stated above, it doesn't really matter if you lose the 3rd day, 2nd stage, 3rd or even the 4th stage, you are STILL IN PROFIT. You need to be lucky for the first two days only, otherwise it is SELF FUNDING. Lose 4 bets in a row and you are done for the day, better for your composure.

Survive for a month and restart. Want to decrease the odds of losing?, Increase the risk..


Disclaimer - Gambling can be a risky business, only gamble with what you can afford to lose.

[RouletteDevil]

Most decent systems will work, the problem most people have is they play to long! That's when the wheel wins!.......I play to win only 5% of my BR at every session, that can take little as 1 spin,.........you could play 3/4 sessions a day.......that's a lot of money over say 30 sessions, compounding your BR could be very profitable

[XXVV]

Your suggested approach RD is smart, very smart, although am intrigued also by Sputnik's argument and attention span. Thanks for the notes and will carefully study.

Consider also the tales from Rolex and others in the Problem Gambling thread.

Essence of failure is that the winner does not know when to pause, or better to stop and exit. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in a casino environment, at some stage of the visit, more than half the players will be ahead, and some studies suggest this may be in excess of two thirds, yet 90% will leave as losers, rationalised as the cost of the 'casino experience'. I would be interested if anyone here, perhaps with links to casino professional management can provide some specific statistics on this phenomenon.

My own empirical experience with live roulette play is that in any ten sessions, only three are failures, and by that I mean too difficult
to interpret the data and be ahead at any time, or from another point of view, unlucky.

Seven sessions were winners, and of those at least one was a golden session offering returns beyond expectation, ie say 100% return on RB. Most winning sessions were in the range 20-50% of RB.

With a range of techniques it is not difficult to enable winning outcomes at some stage of the session.However from my earlier experiences I can say in honesty that for a variety of reasons and rationales, in several of those seven sessions I have left without profit. This is a behaviour which I have studied at length mainly observing my own judgments but sometimes also those of colleagues or strangers.

In my personal view human behaviour is the most difficult variable to control.

Over recent years this has become clearer and clearer, and a few strategies have been developed to deal with this, including adaptations from several professional traders in the financial markets, and studies into the psychology of loss and profit.

Next year on my blog I will be writing a series on this, and will publish some live data based on daily play with an analysis and critique of what was encountered and how it was handled.

There are several ways to encourage more responsible (professional) play and having that is one way.

Overall I think RD is very smart and lots of small gains accepted, even one spin wonders, can accumulate and be compounded, to lift the success rate from 70% to 90%.  In fact I believe it is possible to achieve a compounding rate of earning when the smart techniques can be matched by consistent smart play.

One truth we have to accept is that human fallibility, frailty, and possibility of human error is a fact , although may vary according to personality type, personality traits, compulsive behaviour scale, addictive behaviour tolerance, and tolerance of risk.

Know yourself - that is the first step and that may take some time.

Also I have developed a two or even three step process to enable more efficient and longer winning streaks through pausing and review of earlier loss and then switching to a recovery phase. This is a combination of money management and use of differing techniques and differing unit values to attempt to mitigate loss. Another way is just to head to the exit at a certain threshold. Finally, yet another way is to employ a professional playing partner. Two heads are better than one.

As a postscript I note that some methods have optimum playing cycles as part of the bet characteristic. That is why I would employ my first choice technique as the attack strategy and employ say 200 units with a goal to access minimum of say 25 units, preferably 50 units. perhaps in 7 cases out of 10 this can be done with an occasional larger win say 100 units or more. Note one key is to have a technique that can quickly recover a lost bank. Not always possible though.

Suppose we lose 200 units.

Then pause, and reflect on a technique as first anchor. My usual method though has a built in recovery ( after a pause) and 95 times over a 100 there will be a triple appearance of the missing targets over a short cycle. Shorter the cycle quicker and more full the recovery. A weaker recover may just recover a smaller proportion of the earlier loss. All that by the way is flat staked.

So what to do if the desire is there to risk more but plan to recover all the loss and maybe still add a little profit on top.

A simple though crude example might be say that the first attack lasts say 37 spins and it is possible then to note the remaining outcomes from the 37 or 38 targets possible. Maybe 10-12  targets remain, sometimes a few more or a few less.

Switch the unit value and hunt down say 10 targets, then 9, then 8, then 7. More often than not these outcomes will be in quick succession. But beware, sometimes you will encounter a stubborn hold which means lots of other repeaters. Switch accordingly. Be smart and do not necessarily dig in for a dour battle but a recovery progression play will see it through - eventually. I have seen 17 attempts on a ten target play before eventual hit and movement forward. Beware of Gamblers Fallacy rationales.

Test using low unit values as prototype live, or better using Spielbank live data. Test, test and more testing is wise.

There may be clues  and emphasis by way of wheel section or street or finale on some targets than others. Research.

Ideally aim to achieve say three good hits of +15 units or more ( but with a unit value say triple the earlier value). If one hit suffices then err to the simpler exposure ( thanks Occam).

Also I have noted it is certain as a signal to stop and take profit after three consecutive hits, or two closely spaced hits. That sort of clustering of wins may be ahead of a loss streak, or a run of outs, and we don't want that.

As usual, timing is so important. When your perception timing is all wrong, and you are 'out of phase' - this is a signal to just stop.

Hope this interests you or assists.

Indeed, play only with funds ( free money) you can afford to lose/ risk. Playing with frightened money is a disaster waiting to happen and fear or fear of loss will be your undoing.

[jacksmith]

Hi, So what this all mean, in layman language may Roulette be called as the game of wins.