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[Teorulte]

Hi folks,

I analyzed approximately 500 000 cycles and came up with the following when betting on two dozens (I always bet 2 and 3, but it really doesn't matter)


SPINS...37........   50.....75....100....150......200....500....1000
MIN......10   ........18.....31.....43.....68.......95......280.....587
MAX......36.........   46.....64.....84.....122......158....375.....710

So 10 is the minimum number of wins I got in 37 spins, and 36 was the maximum number of wins I got in 37 spins etc.

[Tomla]

so why not bet it 37 spins at a time , progress up 1 on a losing string of 37 till ahead one?

[XXVV]

This is a very good analysis Teorulte. The idea from Tomla is excellent, will grind a successful outcome if you are patient enough or able to seamlessly link sessions.  I believe studying play outcomes in 37 spins cycles is an incredibly fruitful source of further worthwhile ideas. I have a colleague who has built a winning bet using such a window parameter.

Here is a thought to try to laterally extend your ideas. Take a look at your result data and prepare a timeline that illustrates the session overall outcomes one after another, and then look to see how these distribute and cluster or space.

What is the best cluster. What is the worst.

Try to measure the duration of the 'worst' outcome sequence ( session by session) and try to design a bet that might overcome this. That may be unlikely to be achieved but by applying the one unit per session step see how long it might take to dig out of the hole. I will not make any assumptions here so see what unfolds.

Another way you might consider is to define a trigger stop, a warning based on the grand data overview, at what might be a sensible place to pause, and then find a suitable trigger or spacing based on prior experimental observation, when you can resume live again.

In other words on the roadway of session outcomes you receive a warning of a likely pothole/ obstruction ahead, and through the benchmarks of research data you go to virtual play mode and then resume when the signal indicates danger past. The sceptics will say you never know what is ahead but in cluster analysis you do get to understand the families of lengths of clusters of types of patterns, and you may then be able to 'read' the game and the path ahead even if dimly rather than being blind.

This research alone will trigger the inevitable inputs from the sceptics, but persevere and explore the types of cycles you will encounter and see if you can beat this one. I recommend you look at cluster analysis which can give you insights into 'random' outcomes.

I will add a further point for your consideration.

Roulette can be beaten, especially when played in relatively short cycles. The type of bet characteristic though will determine how hard or how easy you make it for yourself. There are cycles within cycles. There can be cycles of individual spin outcomes, but also cycles of whole session ( 37 spin) outcomes. Use these changes of scale to your advantage,

By adopting a technique of always playing for the higher outcomes or second and third dozens, you are merely a passive victim to random distribution and sometimes will be 'lucky', but generally will be fighting the current of Ecart, and will frequently lose.

Consider the idea of trying to build a 'diversion in the stream', or a 'net' that can catch opportunities that are potential winners, ie have a greater skew already that you can take advantage of.

Say a form of repeat, or cluster combination within a group of finales, or streets, or sixaines, where there is short term clumping/ clustering. These regularly occur and by filtering out the other non attracting stuff you can possibly take advantage of these types of outcomes using a 37 spin cycle for the European wheel, or 38 for the US wheel.

These are conceptual  ideas for exploration, still to be fleshed out, and do not allude necessarily to any specific method of mine or others. I hope you do not find these metaphors annoying, but they are visual tools as well and will assist your imagination and creativity. There will be some who disagree of course. Good hunting.

[XXVV]

There will be some who insist that spins in roulette are independent. On one level they are correct. On another level there is a connection between outcomes using cluster analysis, so that past clustering can certainly have an impact on the immediate outcomes following.

An analogy can be found in fluid dynamics and the flow in a stream and response to obstacles through eddies and short cycle aberrations.

It is these situations that can be viewed and studied by the roulette player and after sufficient practice can see familiar scenarios (patterns) that recur quite reliably, some 85-95% of the time given specific triggered circumstances/ windows, thus enabling short term profit.

Performance will vary but not sufficiently to erase profit with good skills, study, timing and money management by the player.

By adjusting bets to take advantage of short term aberrations, then profit can be obtained, as long as timing is efficient.

Purpose of this note is to encourage further research. Some will disagree of course, and others may have much more to contribute.

Thanks in advance for the contributions which will follow.
R.

[Bayes]

On one level they are correct. On another level there is a connection between outcomes using cluster analysis, so that past clustering can certainly have an impact on the immediate outcomes following.

In Louis G. Holloway's "Full Time Gambler" (my favourite gambling book), he says:

I derive great joy and hobby entertainment from computerizing those good games on which voluminous records are available. For example, on one hundred thousand authentic roulette numbers I made a "gap book". Each number was tabulated in terms of the gap figure between hits. Then each split, each street, each four-block, each six-block, each dozen, each column, and each even money play was "gapped". This greatly condensed the big run of numbers and put the whole thing into a new perspective or dimension. Through this kind of work, one is able to learn the true value of patterns and to avoid being tricked by coincidence.

By plotting graphs from the totals of each approach, we can determine the peak of each cycle -- when to get in and when to get out. Ridiculous, you say? They said that about the atomic bomb, television and the airplane, too. I am not saying we know exactly when to pick up a number or group of numbers. What I am saying is that over the long-range period we can and do turn the percentage and improve cold selecting.

I think this might be a useful set of stats to post in the math section, although I'm not quite sure what he means by "plotting graphs from the totals of each approach", which is open to more than one interpretation. Anyway, it's surely similar to what you mean by cluster analysis.

[Nickmsi]

Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but Bayes mentioned L G Holloway's "gap book".

I have an excel sheet that shows the gaps for straight numbers. 

I have attached it so you can see the variance in the gaps.

This is a tool to help formulate any bet selections you can think of.

Enjoy

Nick

[RouletteKEY]

Most of my play is based on gap analysis...short bursts of betting...but across multiple fronts (hot numbers, wheel itself, felt, etc)

It is a core element of everything (gaps) I do 

Although I would be hard pressed to ever bet 2 dozens because of the lack of recoverability...if that's actually a word I don't know

[XXVV]

Teorulte, you have encouraged some really interesting subject matter, and I share with Bayes a real love for the little book written by the Englishman in New York who was smart enough to make enough profits from US Casinos and Racetracks to be able to support his family and send his son to College in the US.

RK mentions 'recoverability' and if I understand this correctly it is what I might term a 'forgiving' bet, one where the outlay if the attack fails, can be quickly recovered, and if a mistake is made (human error) it can be recovered from swiftly.

I will give you an example that I was describing to a friend this morning. I target 9 numbers and I flat stake for up to 6 attempts. My range of flat stake returns on a single play can be from +27 through to -18.  The decay curve though demonstrates that most hits are on the first attempt.  If this fails I lose 54 units. However when I win, at best I can earn 27 units so the loss can be partly recovered quickly, especially if your research data shows that it is worthwhile to play 3 quick attacks on the earlier  target loss, after it has eventually appeared, so that actually up to 81 units can be 'recovered'.

You have to be wary/ aware of Gamblers Fallacy but if your bet accurately measures and attacks a characteristic that is cyclic, such as repeaters or patterns of clustering or other characteristics as noted by your correspondents, then empirical testing will have shown the optimum start and stops, and you can use short cycles to your advantage. The loss cycles then can be partly or fully neutralised or better, and you can build on those happy cycles that win step by step one after another.

In the case of the 9 target bet mentioned above I do not simply select 9 random numbers. They have to be selected as being a qualifying group that has demonstrated a greater likelihood to appear in the short cycle ( say next 6 -18 spins) more than the 37/9 ratio so as to enable profit to be taken. Why they are more likely to appear is based on pattern observations on huge ( multiple millions of spins)samples. The number of targets needs to be carefully considered also - too many and you lose the efficiency of your focus target and you are odds on - never a good bet - too few and you might be waiting too long for a bite. One of my friends selects 4 targets, and the fewer the number of targets the more 'efficient' the bet as long as you consider the trade offs, one of which is 'recoverability'. Fewer targets easier to recover.

[ADulay]

I have an excel sheet that shows the gaps for straight numbers. 

I have attached it so you can see the variance in the gaps.

Nick

Thanks for the file.   Very useful and it saved ME having to put together another sheet!

AD

[Nickmsi]

You are welcome, AD.

I have hundreds of sheets coded over the years so if you or anyone needs something, just let me know and I will check my files to see if I have already done it.

If I have it, I will gladly post it for all.

Cheers

Nick