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[Nickmsi]

Thanks Alrelax,

I am currently working on Part 2 of using Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat but have been recently sidelined by cataract surgery.  Hopefully I will be able to post soon.

Cheers

Nick

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Nickmsi,
You said, this a very stable bet,
May you please tell,

In 100placed bet, how it behaved...
Were  the results,
always hit above 40win/100 placed bet?

How about 200placed bet,?
And 300placed bet.?

If  it always hit around math expectation, then a mild progression plus virtual losses, could make this constant winnner.

[Nickmsi]

Hello Beat The Wheel . . . .

In my opinion, you cannot get a "Stable Bet" by playing the Casino's Game of Independent Spins.  Each spin has same chance of 1/37 of a number hitting, 50% for Red/Black (without Zero), etc.

By playing FTL, OTL, DBL etc you are playing the Casino's Game.  You are only hoping that random will  follow FTL or OTL etc.  You have no control.

Take control.  Don't chase random, let random chase you.

Don't think in terms of individual spins, think Group of Spins. The VDW is a Group of 9 Spins.

Here's an example of a Group of 2 Spins:

RB

That's it. RBRBRBRBRB etc.  It is a fixed bet.  You bet Red the first spin, Black the second spin, Red the third spin, Black the fourth spin, etc.

You will roughly win 50% of the Red Streaks, 50% of the Black Streaks, you will win RB streaks and lose BR streaks.  No hoping, no guessing.  No matter the variance, the results should be the same.  Is this a more Stable Bet?

[Mike]

Is this a more Stable Bet?

When you say "stable" I assume you mean that the variance is lower than it would be if you were just betting red, or picked your next bet by flipping a coin. The answer is no, and not only for that bet selection. ANY and ALL bet selections will produce the the same variance. There is no such thing as a more stable bet.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Thanks Nickmsi for your explanation.

As I see it,  if you bet a fixed color, example, RED only,
Then,
The 123 same as 234, 345, 456, 567, 678, 789,
Which are streaks of three in row.....rrr

The 135, same as 246, 357, 468, 579.
Which are chops, rbrbr...

The 147  same as 258 and 369...
Which are rbbrbbr....

And 159 the only rbbbrbbb

Thus lose if the pattern breaks. ...when we bet the "third"

Thus if 2persons bet opposite color, then a person must hit....in the 9spins.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

When 2persons bet the opposite, red and black
Then, 123....
When rrrbbb hit, the red person win, the black also win,

When, 135...
rbrbrb
Both also win

When 147...
rbbrbbrbb
Both win,

When 159...
rbbbbrbbbr...
Both win...

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

xrrxrrxxxxrxxx
The red losses all 123, 135, 147, 159 or equivalent.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hello Beat The Wheel . . . .

In my opinion,

Take control.  Don�t chase random, let random chase you.

Don�t think in terms of individual spins, think Group of Spins. The VDW is a Group of 9 Spins.

Here�s an example of a Group of 2 Spins:

RB

That�s it. RBRBRBRBRB etc.  It is a fixed bet.  You bet Red the first spin, Black the second spin, Red the third spin, Black the fourth spin, etc.

You will roughly win 50% of the Red Streaks, 50% of the Black Streaks, you will win RB streaks and lose BR streaks.  No hoping, no guessing.  No matter the variance, the results should be the same.  Is this a more Stable Bet?

Nickmsi,
Your thought very helpful,
Now I understand what you mean group2spin,
where the only sequence , in this rb, the loser is streaks of brbrbr...

Thus, in group of 3spins, say rbr, then the loser is streaks of brb...
Thanks.

[Nickmsi]

Hi Mike,

You are right, the variance caused by random does not change no matter what, but I was referring to the fluctuation (variance) of your results.

Is there any difference between a bet selection based on a single independent spin or one based on a Group of Spins?  If so, what are the differences? Can they be exploited to our advantage, maybe even gain the "EDGE" that Mike and Xander often referred to.  I intend to explore this in more detail in a new thread "Use Math to Beat Roulette/Baccarat-Part 2".

But for now, let's see if we can give Beat The Wheel something to think about in his search to find something more stable. 

Let's compare the single spin bet selection of FTL (Follow The Last) to the Group of 2 spins "RB".  Remember, RB is a fixed bet, it does not change.  It does not rely on random for its bet selection.

Playing Single Spin FTL you will have:

RRRRRRRRRR Long Win Streak on Red (you win 10 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Long Win Streak on Black (you win 10 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)

Playing Group of 2 Spins RB

RRRRRRRRRR Break Even Streak on Red (you win 0 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Break Even Streak on Black (you win 0 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Win Steak on chops (you win 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on chops (you lose 10 units)

Do you see the difference?  FTL has 4 Long Streaks and Group of 2 Spins RB has only 2 Long Streaks and 2 break even streaks, hence the fluctuations (swings in your bankroll) will be less and you are more likely to get a more Stable Bet Result.

This is not a system, nor strategy and there may be other bet selections that do the same but this is a difference that might indicate there is something more to this Group of Spins theory or perhaps Nick is full of it again.  Time will tell.

[Bally6354]

Hello guys,

The pairs in any format are always interesting to re-visit in case anything catches the eye.

I always go back to either a missing pair of the following.....

Red/Red or Black/Black

Odd/Odd or Even/Even

Low/Low or High/High

In the following example, Red/Red has missed three times and is what I would term as the furthest back because the Red/Black, Black/Black and Black/Red are all more recent.

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

The numbers and colour as they appear are as follows......

27 R (L)
8 B (W)
2 B (W)
34 R (L)
31 B (W)
31 B (W)
18 R (L)
13 B (W)
26 B (W)
26 B (W)
17 B (W)
34 R (L)
6 B (W)
36 R (L)
21 R (L)
22 B (W)
24 B (W)
21 R (L)
22 B (W)
30 R (L)
9 R (L)
23 R (L)


The W/L registry is not too severe!


I often think about VdW in it's simple guise and these pairs. You can play for the arithmetic progression in 9 spins and get a few losses and then no bet because of the mutual situation. Any missing or 'furthest back' pair has to give you a win if you back the opposite pair as long as the furthest back pair continues to miss (excluding the 0/00).


cheers

[Bally6354]

Just on the subject of the VdW for the E.C's.

It was probably mentioned before somewhere, but you can run two different streams using the same numbers.

So here, I am looking for the traditional arithmetic progression and also using a 'same/difference' stream as well.

[attachimg=1]

[Bally6354]

Now just thinking about it, I seem to remember you can't get a mutual bet situation up to spin 6. You can only get them from spin 7 onwards. So using the 2 streams like above up to spin 6 maybe isn't such a bad way instead of playing just the one stream through to spin 9.

cheers

[Nickmsi]

Hi Bally, thanks for your input.

I too like the double streams as it gives you twice as many bets. 

Nick

[Bally6354]

Cheers Nick!

I am looking forward to reading/studying your part 2 of using math to beat Roulette/Baccarat. I know there are quite a few of us still looking into the 'non-random' concept and it will be interesting to read about any new developments.