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[Trbfla]

Nick
I just bet a 1-2-3 progression. When I get a mutual bet something wins and I just start the new nine betting 1. I accept a 1, 2 loss and move on. However if I see a mutual on the same side like
1-3-4 I will bet double for the 5. I'm having great success with the same side mutual

[Trbfla]

Trip report: first time playing did well for me, low stress, had several three bets and couple of surrenders to the mutual bet

[TheLaw]

@Nickmsi

A Consistent Winning Bet using VDW

What if we force a "win" by only betting the 9th spin when the option arrives?

So basically we would have a losing 8 spin sequence, and if we must win the 9th spin (excluding zeros of course)......then this should create a consistent winning bet (or at least win more than we lose).

Now......first reactions to this will be the "not enough betting options" crowd. Keep in mind that this would be a constant rolling trigger for 8 losses on all 3 EC (so 6 options in all).

Just run some quick numbers:

For the sake of argument: If we only net +1 unit every 1000 spins (super-grinder) and play for 40hrs per week (+2 units), then we will win +104 units per year. Even if your bankroll was 100 units, then that's a 100% return on your investment.

Finally......it can be treated like Card-Counting with a low-level cover bet.........and then a full-size bet when the 8-loss sequence trigger appears.

Cheers!

[Nickmsi]

Hi TheLaw . .

I have some results doing something like this.  When I get back home
later today I will look them up and report.

I might only have them for 1 EC, if so, will test out your suggestion of using all 3 EC.

Cheers

NIck

[ADulay]

It is like, well this has already presented two losses so depending on the stats expectation (i.e frequency of expected losses in a row), stick with it. 

A good plan.

Thanks for the reasoning.

AD

[Trbfla]

The forcing a win at hand nine is an awesome idea-just 2 drawbacks-1 if what if it's a mutual bet and 2-I do not see it going to hand 9 that often

[TheLaw]

@Trbfla

1 - No reason to play a mutual bet if it will be a draw anyway........or worse a loss due to zero(s)

2 - A rare consistent bet is enough.........remember my example above with only +1 unit per 1000 spins (roughly 20hrs at the table)

Also, wonder if it would work on RNG?

[Nickmsi]

Hi TheLaw and Trbfla

I checked my results and while betting only on the 9th spin/hand sounds like a great idea, in reality, we cannot get to 8 spins/hands without having a win or mutual bet.

For example, RRBBRRBB, eight spins, with a 1-5-9 AP for Red and and 7-8-9 AP for Black.

Do you know of an 8 spin result that would force a single win on the 9th spin?

Cheers

Nick

[TheLaw]

So does this mean that we should see a guaranteed win by the 8th spin?......perhaps not mathematically, but practically?

If so, then why not apply the same principle to the 8th spin.......waiting for 7 virtual losses (not including zero).

This is really getting down to brass tacks here if we are limiting this to 8 spins......and expecting a win nearly every time.........this would be the tightest betting window that I've seen yet related to a superior bet..........it's usually dozens of spins or more.

One other idea to throw into the mix.......does the spin (#1-8) increase the likelihood of a win?.......not up to that spin, but just the spin itself (just thinking out loud here)?

Cheers!

[sqzbox]

The trouble is, there is no guaranteed win anywhere in the series.And if we get to the 9th bet that is always a mutual bet. I think - if I remember correctly.

[james]

You are right. 9th bet is always a mutual bet if there is no win before. All other bets are 50/50. There is no guaranteed bet.

[james]

9th result guarantees a mutual bet and 8 does not. See also the theorem discussed here in detail.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_der_Waerden%27s_theorem

[sqzbox]

Just record in groups according to convenience. As soon as you get a win reset using the last decision as a starter. The theory says ANY group of maximum 9 so you can restart your series from any suitable point - but obviously a place where there has not been an AP yet.

[ADulay]

I realize that many are stuck on running millions of trial hands but it's hard to beat sitting down at the table once you are comfortable with your bet selection.

Hit the B&M casino tonight and flat bet my way to a very nice +8 net.

Can't complain about that.

This makes three trips to the casino where the VDW play has produced a profit.

Simple yet effective for general baccarat play.

An upload of the shoe should be available tomorrow after some sleep for those who care to take a look.

AD

[Ehtelgaeb]

I realize that many are stuck on running millions of trial hands but it's hard to beat sitting down at the table once your comfortable with your bet selection.

Hit the B&M casino tonight and flat bet my way to a very nice +8 net.

Can't complain about that.

This makes three trips to the casino where the VDW play has produced a profit.

Simple yet effective for general baccarat play.

An upload of the shoe should be available tomorrow after some sleep for those who care to take a look.

AD

Quick question if you don't mind.  Were you playing as you originally indicated with a reset after a win or did you go with -2 stop loss before resetting?