Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat

[Blue_Angel]

What is the definition of the "Holy Grail" for you?

Is it something which never loses a bet? a session? within a week maybe?

A method which could lose some sessions could be overall more profitable than a method which never loses!

So what's exactly is the definition of HG??

Intuitive improvisation is the secret of genius...!

[Garnabby]

Have you ever thought if a casino's board and or staf were reading all these posts, what would they think??

"A bunch of lo..ers who  think they can win our games!"

Am I wrong thinking this way??

Pondering the ways of fantasy is as good as thinking about the nature of reality.

[Garnabby]

What is the definition of the "Holy Grail" for you?

Immortality.  We all want to fight our way out of the blasted universe; and then as hard to get back in.

[TheLaw]

I think of an HG as a method that can be executed practically and consistently for long-term profit.

This would take most AP off the table as certain variables would destroy its practicality.......and would also rule-out bots for online play.

Personally, I think that the most-likely winning method is a super-grinder that would require a great deal of time at the table with an expectation of around +1 unit per hour of play. Grinder methods tend to scare off most players as "impractical" if they don't win many units per hour.

More of an investment strategy than a "winning the lottery" philosophy.

Cheers!

[Albalaha]

Ladies and Gentlemen,
           There is no need to be overexcited with this method. Audiokinesis was at -621 after one million placed bets in No Zero Roulette. It means, they have ignored the 10% house fees charged periodically by the casino for letting you play no zero roulette. Whenever one is in a net win 10% can be deducted in a given span and not after millions of spins pass. This makes things further horrible and lesser rewarding and the real net will be deeper in loss than they calculated so far. I assume there is a loss of atleast 5k if proper calculation is made. Same goes with Nick's tests. Ignoring House fees calculation is a blunder worth looking very seriously.

[Blue_Angel]

Why card counting on baccarat does not work?

[Trbfla]

All I know is I use a mild progression and have 28 live happy shoes with this approach. Maybe it's because in my lifetime I will never come close to entering "the long term". Did you know mathematically and scientifically the bumblebee can't fly but yet it does.....

[james]

Wish you continued success.

However, Bumble bee can not fly argument comes in the realm of pseudoscience. For further discussion see the article below:

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Bumblebee_argument

[Gizmotron]

Something everyone should be aware of. These tests using a computer to generate an RNG need the random seed reset after half a million spins, and for every half million thereafter. Modern computer operating systems now reset the random seed of the RNG algorithm every time you restart your computer. But if you run a simulation over 100s of millions of spins you get a duplication of the approximate first half million. This will give you a false reading. Years ago several of us programmers proved it is possible to avoid the double zeros by a minute fraction of a percentage. We proved that the statistical percentage for the house edge was not a constant. That a mechanical system could deliberately avoid some of the wilder swings of the zeros being hot numbers. It was however impractical. It never came close to becoming 50/50.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Gentlemen,
No need to test million, or billions spins...

===============
as MarkTeruya points out...

"The obvious flaw with VDW is that over the 512 possible binary combinations, only 256 of the 9 hand possible sequences can provide profit, meaning 50% of the time you will profit and 50% of the time you will either lose 1, 2, 3, 4 bets or break even.  When you count losing v's winning bets, it is all 50-50, because this is common to everything, this should not be considered a negative.  When you start your 9 hand sequence there is no positive expectation that "that a win will come"."

==============


"...only 256 of the 9 hand possible sequences can provide profit, meaning 50% ..."

It is not FLAW,
it just, albeit HE, the method is just stable 50/50 chance,
and HUGE losses occur, only when the   "losing sequences" keep hitting..
but since  "losing sequences" keep hitting..",
is something within the VARIANCE, and random, we have no choice, but adhere to the law of random, variance, and probability.

What we need, is a method that keep "bounce back",
without the dreaded huge DRAWDOWN.

The problem is,
does VDW, produce HUGE VARIANCE?

Maybe Nick, and Auto, kind enough, to produce ,
flatbet  profit/loss result, in a SINGLE LINE chart,

[in 100,1000,10000,million, spin of BET-TAKEN],

and we can see how the profit/loss result in single LINE,
and HOW,
the line moves in WAVE, moving up and down,
and we can deduce when to start bet FLAT.
or not bet.

my half cent thought.

[gr8player]

Those thoughts are worth a heck-of-alot more than "half a cent", Beat-The-Wheel.

Anyone referencing a bet selection's "variance", "drawdowns", and "line waves" is a heck-of-alot more than "half-way" to creating their own superior bet selection process combined with a correlated money management plan.

[Blue_Angel]

When I venture to new venue, it doesn't take them long to realize I'm not your average ploopie and that I actually might know what I'm doing. Those venues I frequent regularly remain wary, despite having seen me lose. 

Strange, I think I've heard this thing before...

[Garnabby]

Don't you guys ever tire of typing all the nonsense?

[soxfan]

Some of you cats are killin me over here, hey hey!

[Nickmsi]

BA . . .

In theory it is a great idea to play a 50/50 system with the hopes it will ride the waves of profit/loss so you can take advantage of it.  In reality, Variance does not allow it.

If the results were all chops, RBRBRBRB OR RRBBRRBBRRBB then we could possibly do it.  In reality we also have streaks of wins and streaks of losses.  The attached graph is for betting Red only,  a 50/50 system.  It can take up to 25,000 spins/hands to get bet back to profit,  not practical in this instance.

The VDW tweaks that I am testing, either win or lose, I can't find one that breaks even.

Gizmatron. . . I agree that RNG and the seeding problem might affect results so we have included in the bot,  9 RNG sources to choose from. See attached pic.  Now we can verify results using different RNG sources. 

Vic is squashing a few bugs in the bot today so we will be re-testing 28 tweaks of the VDW system this week and will report the results when known.


Cheers

Nick