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[Mike]

It may be a 50:50 game but the dispersion is a different question. Two games may both be 50:50 but the variances can be different.

[Sputnik]

It may be a 50:50 game but the dispersion is a different question. Two games may both be 50:50 but the variances can be different.

No need to calculate the variance for overrepresented and underrepresented outcomes - i made a chart back at 2008 when i introduce Marigny at public forum boards.



The french word for STD is Ecart

First you have to get the Absolute Ecart when you calculate.
So lets assume you have an sequence with 14 series alternating with two singles present.

Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical ecart so we continue with...

14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

The Statistical Ecart 3,00

[Nickmsi]

"I had to read so much rubbish about the VdW.

In this and other forums are such a lot of members who claim to be intelligent and mathguys but not one of them did really think about and analyse this way to bet.

1) If we look at the distribution of two colours (R and B or H/L, or E/O) we will get 256 Variations. We can easily reduce this number:
We name the first colour to appear  "1" , the other then obviously "2"
If it starts by: RRB we would note 1 1 2
If it starts by: BBR we would also note 1 1 2
So have just half of 256 variations.

2) If we check how many AP will end at which coup we get the following:
Coup 3: 1
Coup 4: 1
Coup 5: 2
Coup 6: 2
Coup 7: 3
Coup 8: 3
Coup 9: 4

Up to Coup #6 there is only 1 decision possible. From Coup #7 there might be two possible decisions to make.

3) the hitrates:
Coup #3: 24,89%
Coup #4: 12,57%
Coup #5: 18,75%
Coup #6: 12,50%

That makes a total of 68,71% hitrate with only 1 decision to make.

did anyone look at VdW like this? I don´t think so, nor read about."

Here is a post from Winkel on another forum.

This shows both MATH and STATISTICS being used.

Cheers

Nick

[MrG]

Hello,

this is interesting concept. Is there any conclusion? How to play, if there is any advantage?
Nickmsi, the results in reply 216 look pretty good, do you have any conclusion on this concept?

Thanks.

[ADulay]

Hello,

this is interesting concept. Is there any conclusion? How to play, if there is any advantage?
Nickmsi, the results in reply 216 look pretty good, do you have any conclusion on this concept?

Thanks.

Have you taken the time to read the entire thread?   A lot of good information in there and explanations of pretty much anything you could ask.

AD

[Nickmsi]

Hi MrG and Adulay,

There are many different ways to utilize the VDW theorem, each person develops what is best for his or her style of play.

Here is some food for thought as to why this has a better chance to succeed than other systems.

We are not changing the odds so how can we increase the accuracy of our predictions, ie, our bet selections.

We know that in a "coin toss", there is no reason for favoring "heads" or "tails".  In Roulette, there is no reason for favoring Red or Black.  In Baccarat, there is no reason for favoring Banker or Player.

These are called "unreasoned or wild guesses". If an unreasoned guess turns out to be correct then it is called a "happy guess" or "lucky guess"

By contrast, a guess made using prior knowledge is called an informed guess or an educated guess.

The prior knowledge in this case is the formation of an AP.  If an AP can be formed on the next spin or card then we are making an "educated guess".

An "educated guess" is better than an "uneducated guess".  You make enough "educated guesses" and you might have a foundation for a winning system.

Cheers
Nick

[james]

If you put 18 red balls, 18 black balls and one green ball in a bag, is an educated guess based on AP better than a wild guess to predict what the next ball drawn will be? Mathematically an educated guess and a wild guess will result in 48.6% hit rate in the long run.

[TheMagician]

You never play the mathematical probability of a given bet selection against the offered odds by the Casino in roulette without knowing the VARIANCE CURVE every wheel generates on any given bet selection.  Learning how to plot and read a dynamic variance curve, is like learning a new language with words and grammar. Words are here the various bet selections on the table or the wheel, and grammar is the right moment or intervals of making such a bet selection.

Unless you do not find a way to plot said dynamic ongoing variance curve (there are several ways), you will be like a blind man in a large forest not knowing what direction to walk in order to get home.

A Variance Curve shows when the negative variance of a bet selection is occurring and hence a bet is not to recommend and when the positive variance is at hand and thus the Mathematical Odds of said bet selection is at its highest probability of generating a win. The HOuse edge here becomes irrelevant at such a moment, but most relevant if you try to bet during a negative phase.

If you can understand this you will find yourself starting to win more bets than losing, and if not, you will most probably follow the common trend that usually apply the most ludicrous bet selections with horrendous progressions, that all are based on the ignorance of the Variance Curve i.e the blind man in the forest syndrome.

[Nickmsi]

Thanks Magician for your insight.  Are you referring to the Standard Deviations as a type of Variance Curve or something else.  Would love to hear more.

Yes, James you are correct, if you treat each spin independently. 

Each SINGLE spin is independent but a GROUP of 9 sins are DEPENDENT.  You cannot form an AP without using Past Spins.

So you can treat each spin independently and take a "lucky guess" or you can take an "educated guess" that an AP has to form in a Group of 9 spins.

Here's something else to ponder.  Using your example of 18 Red and 18 Black and 1 Green ball in a bag. If you draw a ball from the bag you have 1/37 chance.  Put the ball back in the back and draw again, still 1/37 chance.

But what if you did not put the ball back in the bag?  If you drew a Black and did not put it back, you would then have 18 Reds, 17 Blacks and 1 Green.  Now you have increased your chances of drawing a Red.

With VDW there are only 512 patterns that can be formed in 9 Spins. 256 patterns starting with R and 256 patterns starting with B.

RRRRRRRRR is an example of 1 pattern.

BRRBBBRRR is another example.

Now put all these 512 patterns in your bag.  1st draw is a Red.  Now you have eliminated 256 patterns that start with B.
2nd Draw is a B.  Now you have eliminated all patterns beginning with RR.

Can we apply some Statistical Analysis to this finite set of data (512 patterns & 16 AP's)?

Hope this helps.

Cheers

Nick

[Dane]

Thanks Nick! I agree that "each SINGLE spin is independent".
And typing errors might be rather entertaining: "A GROUP of 9 sins are DEPENDENT".
Independent GROUPS of sinners may be hard to find 

[TheMagician]

Hi, Dane.


Hows the weather in dear ol´ Denmark? Any luck at the tables of Casino Aalborg or Odense?  Don´t tell me, you did a John Cusack (Oceans Eleven) took the money and ran for the exit

[Sputnik]

Flat betting has been done with la partage rule and end up with positiv result after 60.000 placed bets - that should be the blue print for everyone who try to develop a flat betting system
I will just show some simple observations - one is how the variance go back to back 83% of times - we use the name reversal for such event and happens after a negativ result
One other experiment is to start when you have a negativ result and reverse the end result into the positiv - assume you have -2 units and your expectation is 83% to break even - now if you start playing from -2 units your expectation change to +2 units - i am using +1 unit with my example
The average peak for 60.000 placed bets is +6 units and the average drawdown is -8 units

The first test: if you gain +2 units or more you stop at positiv result - if a negativ result you aim for one reversal
The second test: if you get a negativ result you play for one reversal to end with at least +1 unit

[MrG]

Have you taken the time to read the entire thread?   A lot of good information in there and explanations of pretty much anything you could ask.

AD

Hi Adulay, yes, I read through the whole thread and I saw it was work in progress. Sometimes the results seemed to be good, sometimes to be bad, that was why I asked whether or not any conclusion has been made.

[Dane]

Hi, Dane.


Hows the weather in dear ol´ Denmark? Any luck at the tables of Casino Aalborg or Odense?  Don´t tell me, you did a John Cusack (Oceans Eleven) took the money and ran for the exit

Thanks for asking. As you might know, the weather in Denmark keeps changing, but compared to other parts of the World we are lucky. I stopped visiting the tables of Casino Aalborg. Casino Odense has become my favourite Casino in Denmark. I had some luck there - but NEXT TIME I got greedy. The same old story.
At home with my Permanenzen I am working hard on a street method. And I plan to test it in Odense in November.

[MrG]

Hi Nick,

I understand there are more ways of playing this, therefore I asked if there is any conclusion on which is the best one (for roulette).
It seems the best results are in reply 216, I will take a look at how this was done and try "playing" with it.