Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat

[TheMagician]

Best of luck and good measures of skill, my Viking neighbor.

[alrelax]

If you belief you can beat baccarat shoe after shoe with a wagering system and/or sit down at a random time/shoe and employ a math system to prevail every time, you are misled, 

However if you belief you have something I will pay you for it $50,000.00 USD,  all you have to do to collect the cash is come to one of my local Midwest casinos I play at,  I will deposit the money in a front money account.  You will play here with your money 3 days and 7 a day, 21 shoes total,  if 90% of your wagers win, wagering 25 hands per shoe, the $50 000 is yours, I will pay the hotel, alll food and beverage and transportation no matter prevail or not

If you use negative progression you are a complete and utter fool, counting on non streaks.  I saw just thought fail three times in the past week with 5 streaks of 8 or more in 3 shoes.  Every single player got wiped out playing negative progression even with 25,000.00 buy ins.

[Blue_Angel]

if 90% of your wagers win

I think it's too much for everyone, why 90% when even 55% correct grants you overall profit?

Dear Nick,
What if there were 8 players starting to bet each one of them with 1 result difference, so when the 1st player would bet the last 9th bet of the sequence simultaneously the last 8th player would wager his 1st bet of the 9 sequence...?

Do you understand where I'm going with this?

Those 8 players would bet differently even using the same AP (method), when there are losing decisions the only way to come out on top is to Martingale, but even so there's no guarantee that you'd always get at least 1 win within a sequence of 9 roughly 50/50 outcomes.

You said after observing the 1st outcome the remaining possible sequences become 256 from 512, after observing the 2nd outcome the remaining possible sequences become 128 from 256, after observing the 3rd outcome the remaining possible sequences become 64 from 128, after observing the 4th outcome the remaining possible sequences become 32 from 64, after observing the 5th outcome the remaining possible sequences become 16 from 32, after observing the 6th outcome the remaining possible sequences become 8 from 16, ...till you reach the 9th in which there will remain only 2 possible outcomes!WOW! 

Why this AP reminds me the infamous Martingale? 

Do you think by knowing the binomial probability that can help you predict what's coming up next?

Let me give you a hint, all of the sequences of the same length have equal probability to occur, but if we take a large sample such as 1000 outcomes and divide it to 100 sequences of 10 decisions each we would find more sequences with 5 a side decisions, regardless of their order.
At least that's what theory has to say, what could happen is another thing.

I'm sorry Nick but you can't sidestep probability, that's a fact!

[Nickmsi]

Hi Dane, got a good chuckle with my Group of 9 sins. It's just a way of life, when you reach my age, fingers, brains and sins don't always work in harmony.

Hi MrG, yes the results in Reply # 216 shows one way of playing.  If you look closely at the graph picture you will see the name of the Excel Sheet that I wrote which powers the bot, ie, "Nick's VW CAPS 4 Spins NZ".  If shows one of the Statistical Ways to approach the VDW bet.  More on the Statistics, which is a key element, in the following responses to Alrelax and Blue Angel.

Hi Al, thanks for your opinion and offer.  I am not interested as what I do is for bots to be playing On Line Casinos not brick and mortar.  Now if you make the offer $50,000,000 then I would be happy to divert my efforts.

The house edge in SZ roulette is about 2.7% and in baccarat around 1.06%.  The Casino's know they will make this edge in the long run but they make the bulk of their money in the short run because most people are not professional and they are playing for fun or recreation, they are on vacation to gamble, watch shows, and eat good food.

The VDW does not have the vacationers to provide immediate income.  It is a grind to flat bet 1 EC or 1 hand at a time.  Later this week we will be completing 40 sessions of 1,000 spins each for a VDW system flat betting.  I will publish the grind so you all can see how it fluctuates, how often it loses, wins etc.

Hi Blue Angel, always glad to hear from a critical thinker.  Yes, you are correct, you will ultimately come to the 9th spin still with a 50/50 chance at that point.

What I was trying to explain is that there are STATISTICS that can be exploited.  The 512 patterns are just one set of statistics that can be used.  Using your example, what is the STATISTIC of getting to the 9th spin.?  Less than 2% of the time will you get to the 9th spin. That means that 98% of the time an AP was formed before the 9th spin.

What is the win% for the first 6 spins?  68% of the time you will form an AP in the first 6 spins.

These are some examples of STATISTICS than can be utilized when dealing with a fixed set of data, ie 16 AP's and 512 patterns.

Cheers
Nick

[Sputnik]

I don't understand why you would test 1000 spins - for me it does not make sense
A test should be done in a realistic way and with conditions you have in real casino

Cheers

[Nickmsi]

Hello Patrik,

I do not play in Brick and Mortar Casino's primarily because there are none near where I live. The ones that I have access to do not have baccarat and have only double zero roulette.

So with my background in programming, I decided to concentrate on testing and playing On Line Casino's for now and while 1,000 spin sessions seems a lot, it only takes my bot 2-4 hours to complete.

Cheers
Nick

[Nickmsi]

As promised I have attached an Excel Sheet with our actual Demo Results covering 40,000 spins, (40 Sessions of 1,000 spins each).

The bet selection is one of my VDW for 1 EC.

It was played on the NZ table with BetVoyager.

All bets were 1 unit each.

We had over 30,000 placed bets which is generally acceptable validity.

We won 24 of the 40 sessions (60%).

We showed a small profit of 176 units or .0044/spin.

As you can see, it was indeed a grind. 

If you played this in a Brick and Mortar Casino at an average 200 spins/hands per day, it would take 200 days to get these results.

Next step is to make this system better.

Cheers
Nick

[esoito]

Well done, Nick 

That should leave the flat-bet-naysayers more than a bit red-faced!

[Barron518]

Thank you, Nick!

Are you testing the full 16 AP VDW combinations?

Cheers!

As promised I have attached an Excel Sheet with our actual Demo Results covering 40,000 spins, (40 Sessions of 1,000 spins each).

The bet selection is one of my VDW for 1 EC.

It was played on the NZ table with BetVoyager.

All bets were 1 unit each.

We had over 30,000 placed bets which is generally acceptable validity.

We won 24 of the 40 sessions (60%).

We showed a small profit of 176 units or .0044/spin.

As you can see, it was indeed a grind. 

If you played this in a Brick and Mortar Casino at an average 200 spins/hands per day, it would take 200 days to get these results.

Next step is to make this system better.

Cheers
Nick

[Nickmsi]

Thanks Max,

Hi Barron518,

I have tested all 16 AP's individually and in combination with each other.  The VDW that I am testing now does not
use all the AP's.

Cheers

Nick

[Barron518]

Thank you Nick for your reply. In your humble opinion, what is the best AP combination to be used? I know that the terrible two's is the nemesis of the VDW not to mention the mutual bets,  but with your knowledge and experience, please let us know the best AP combinations if I may ask.

Cheers!!

Thanks Max,

Hi Barron518,

I have tested all 16 AP's individually and in combination with each other.  The VDW that I am testing now does not
use all the AP's.

Cheers

Nick

[Nickmsi]

Hi Barron,

Yes, the double chops (terrible twos)will lose as well as many other patterns but we have to accept the losses and keep on betting because eventually our edge will overcome the losses.

The Mutual Bets occur only on spin 7-8-9.  I avoid playing the Mutual Bets.

A couple ways to avoid them is to bet only the AP's in spins 1-6.  You will never get a Mutual Bet.

My preferred way to avoid the Mutual Bet is to bet only one side.  Just Bet Black and you will never get a Mutual Bet.

Hope this helps.

Nick

[plolp]

My preferred way to avoid the Mutual Bet is to bet only one side.  Just Bet Black and you will never get a Mutual Bet.

Hello Nickmsi ,

This is true, it is very practical.

It would be more accurate to say that you ignore it.
But it is there.
I will give an example ...

[plolp]

35         
          27
2         
4         
          5
29         
26         
          21

if you play the red side, you win on the 21  ( 2-5-8 )  we ignored 6-7-8

if you play the black side , you lost on the 5 (3-4-5)  , you win on the 26 (1-4-7) and you lost on the 21 (6-7-8)

it is useful to see the details sometimes.

[Blue_Angel]

So if you don't Martingale till you win then you are expecting the wins to be more than the losses?
Even so, no one would become rich by betting like this because the units would fluctuate and at the best case you would be few units up!
The smaller the edge the less units you gain and if you are not a part timer then you must use high value units (black chips or more) in order to make a living.
I'm full time gambler and I know because I've seen all these before...