Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat

[Nickmsi]

Thanks Plolp for the examples, I tend to get lost in the programming and testing and forget to explain things.


"So if you don't Martingale till you win then you are expecting the wins to be more than the losses?"

Yes, Blue Angel, we get more Wins than Losses and that is how we gain an edge.  That is why I am testing everything Flat Betting to be sure there is an edge and when determined then we can add a progression.

As I mentioned before, I do not play in Brick & Mortar Casino's as none are nearby, so I am planning on playing On Line Only.  You are right, this current system is a grind.  If you Flat Bet with 1 Euro Chips you would only make 83 Euros per week which is a meager income.  But our plans are to play more than 1 Casino per Day, then the income multiplies.

Cheers

Nick

[MrG]

I tried playing this system in following way:
If for a spin there is just one formation possible and it is starting to form, I bet it.
If for a spin there are more formations than one possible, I bet:
1) If all formations that are possible are starting to create and are for the same color, or
2) If not all possible formations are creating, but those that are creating are for the same color.

The results are nothing special, sometimes it goes up, sometimes down. Tested on some 100 thousands of no zero spins, flatbet. Winrate is nowhere near 60%. I also tested stoploss -2  but it didn't have any significant impact.

Therefore Nick, could you write how you play this system? How do you reach 60% winrate?

[Nickmsi]

Hello MrG

Yes, you are correct, if you play it the way you outlined you get normal results.

The formation of AP's by themselves, no matter how you play them, will not give you the edge.

As I mentioned before, you need to apply STATISTICS to get an edge.

Statistics is analyzing a set of data for the purpose of drawing general conclusions, ie, facts.

VDW has a set of finite data, it has 16 AP's and 512 (9 Spin) patterns. 

An example of VDW statistic is that 98% of the time an AP will be formed in the first 8 spins.

Another statistic, 35% of the time the AP 1-2-3 will be formed.

Another statistic, less than 1% of the time is the AP 7-8-9 formed.

Use of Math and Statistics will help you consistently beat a 50/50 game.
Cheers
Nick

[Mike]

Nick,

Neither roulette nor baccarat are 50:50 games. Your recent chart in this thread showed how you came out ahead over thousands of spins playing VDW, but it was playing no-zero roulette. Have you had similar results playing against the standard house edge or do you always test on a no-zero wheel? If the latter, your results will be misleading.  Your apparent edge is so small that it wouldn't overcome the edge when playing the standard game.

[Bally6354]

Leaving aside the no-zero wheel, Pryanka stated the following.

[attachimg=1]

ok....so that's clear enough (or it should be)

Then in an earlier post, Pryanka stated the following when asked about GUT.

[attachimg=2]

So forget about GUT.....but read between the lines if you want to try and figure out what Pryanka was trying to get across.

cheers

[Blue_Angel]

Leaving aside the no-zero wheel, Pryanka stated the following.

[attachimg=1]

ok....so that's clear enough (or it should be)

Then in an earlier post, Pryanka stated the following when asked about GUT.

[attachimg=2]

So forget about GUT.....but read between the lines if you want to try and figure out what Pryanka was trying to get across.

cheers

Is this an effort to re-invent the wheel?
What kind of practical joke is this?

After so long you suddenly arrive to the conclusion that there's no edge there, congratulations for your big discovery!

Ask yourselves why such bet would win more than it loses, why?!
If you cannot justify it in a sensible way then don't waste time on such things.

It must has a reason why it'll be overall winner!

[Bally6354]

After so long you suddenly arrive to the conclusion that there's no edge there, congratulations for your big discovery!

Thanks! 

[Blue_Angel]

Anytime

[Mike]

It must has a reason why it'll be overall winner!

I agree. But I don't see how using statistics will make VDW an overall winner.

[MrG]

I agree. But I don't see how using statistics will make VDW an overall winner.

Hi Mike, it is the same for me, I don't see it either.

[alrelax]

Take any statistic you desire and apply it to a real game of baccarat.  Keep applying it and see how much you win from using statistics to wager on. 

Betting for something to happen instead of betting for what the shoe is producing, is certainly a way to drain your bank roll faster than most anything else, IMO.

Here is the best way I can explain it and what I write is learned from experience. 

http://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/randomness-equality-bias-in-real-life-casino-play/

[Nickmsi]

"I agree. But I don't see how using statistics will make VDW an overall winner."

Let me give you an example of how Statistics are used.

Assume you have a biased wheel.  Divide the wheel into 2 Sectors.  Test for thousands of spins and the Statistics could show that 60% of the time the ball will land in one sector and 40% in the other.

This is a Statistical Imbalance that can be exploited.

There is a similar Statistical Imbalance using VDW that I am exploiting and my initial results seem to support it.

Right now this is not a system, I am just testing the principal of can you get an edge in a 50/50 game by a Statistical Imbalance in VDW.

When the results are known and independently verified, then we can address systems for SZ Roulette, baccarat, craps etc.
Cheers
Nick

[MrG]

Nick,

I see. Though I thought you already proved that it can be done by those 40 sessions of 1000 spins.

Maybe I could help you with trying to find if such an imbalance can be exploited by VDW. I can create scripts in Excel and I believe such a script could be done there.

[Nickmsi]

Thanks for the offer Mr G.

I already have it coded in Excel as Excel is what powers my bot.

Yes, we have 40,000 spin results which look good but I have been around long enough to know that we need more results to validate.  Currently we have 92,000 spins completed and the win% dropped slightly from 60% to 59%.

In about a week or so I need to get with Victor to fix a small bug in the XLBot and then I can send it out to other forum members for independent verification.

Cheers

Nick

[alrelax]

A great and most innovative thread by Nickmsi.