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Topic: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat  (Read 80910 times)

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Online Nickmsi

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Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
« Reply #450 on: June 30, 2018, 03:24:23 PM »
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  • Thanks Alrelax,

    I am currently working on Part 2 of using Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat but have been recently sidelined by cataract surgery.  Hopefully I will be able to post soon.

    Cheers

    Nick


    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #451 on: July 08, 2018, 05:15:10 AM »
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  • Nickmsi,
    You said, this a very stable bet,
    May you please tell,

    In 100placed bet, how it behaved...
    Were  the results,
    always hit above 40win/100 placed bet?

    How about 200placed bet,?
    And 300placed bet.?

    If  it always hit around math expectation, then a mild progression plus virtual losses, could make this constant winnner.

    Online Nickmsi

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #452 on: July 08, 2018, 01:17:03 PM »
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  • Hello Beat The Wheel . . . .

    In my opinion, you cannot get a Stable Bet by playing the Casinos Game of Independent Spins.  Each spin has same chance of 1/37 of a number hitting, 50% for Red/Black (without Zero), etc.

    By playing FTL, OTL, DBL etc you are playing the Casinos Game.  You are only hoping that random will  follow FTL or OTL etc.  You have no control.

    Take control.  Dont chase random, let random chase you.

    Dont think in terms of individual spins, think Group of Spins. The VDW is a Group of 9 Spins.

    Heres an example of a Group of 2 Spins:

    RB

    Thats it. RBRBRBRBRB etc.  It is a fixed bet.  You bet Red the first spin, Black the second spin, Red the third spin, Black the fourth spin, etc.

    You will roughly win 50% of the Red Streaks, 50% of the Black Streaks, you will win RB streaks and lose BR streaks.  No hoping, no guessing.  No matter the variance, the results should be the same.  Is this a more Stable Bet?


    Offline Mike

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #453 on: July 08, 2018, 03:05:58 PM »
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  • Is this a more Stable Bet?

    When you say "stable" I assume you mean that the variance is lower than it would be if you were just betting red, or picked your next bet by flipping a coin. The answer is no, and not only for that bet selection. ANY and ALL bet selections will produce the the same variance. There is no such thing as a more stable bet.

    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #454 on: July 09, 2018, 09:27:25 AM »
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  • Thanks Nickmsi for your explanation.

    As I see it,  if you bet a fixed color, example, RED only,
    Then,
    The 123 same as 234, 345, 456, 567, 678, 789,
    Which are streaks of three in row.....rrr

    The 135, same as 246, 357, 468, 579.
    Which are chops, rbrbr...

    The 147  same as 258 and 369...
    Which are rbbrbbr....

    And 159 the only rbbbrbbb

    Thus lose if the pattern breaks. ...when we bet the "third"

    Thus if 2persons bet opposite color, then a person must hit....in the 9spins.


    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #455 on: July 09, 2018, 10:47:10 AM »
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  • When 2persons bet the opposite, red and black
    Then, 123....
    When rrrbbb hit, the red person win, the black also win,

    When, 135...
    rbrbrb
    Both also win

    When 147...
    rbbrbbrbb
    Both win,

    When 159...
    rbbbbrbbbr...
    Both win...

    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #456 on: July 09, 2018, 11:18:43 AM »
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  • xrrxrrxxxxrxxx
    The red losses all 123, 135, 147, 159 or equivalent.

    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #457 on: July 09, 2018, 11:28:55 AM »
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  • Hello Beat The Wheel . . . .

    In my opinion,

    Take control.  Don�t chase random, let random chase you.

    Don�t think in terms of individual spins, think Group of Spins. The VDW is a Group of 9 Spins.

    Here�s an example of a Group of 2 Spins:

    RB

    That�s it. RBRBRBRBRB etc.  It is a fixed bet.  You bet Red the first spin, Black the second spin, Red the third spin, Black the fourth spin, etc.

    You will roughly win 50% of the Red Streaks, 50% of the Black Streaks, you will win RB streaks and lose BR streaks.  No hoping, no guessing.  No matter the variance, the results should be the same.  Is this a more Stable Bet?
    Nickmsi,
    Your thought very helpful,
    Now I understand what you mean group2spin,
    where the only sequence , in this rb, the loser is streaks of brbrbr...

    Thus, in group of 3spins, say rbr, then the loser is streaks of brb...
    Thanks.

    Online Nickmsi

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #458 on: July 09, 2018, 07:45:42 PM »
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  • Hi Mike,

    You are right, the variance caused by random does not change no matter what, but I was referring to the fluctuation (variance) of your results.

    Is there any difference between a bet selection based on a single independent spin or one based on a Group of Spins?  If so, what are the differences? Can they be exploited to our advantage, maybe even gain the EDGE that Mike and Xander often referred to.  I intend to explore this in more detail in a new thread Use Math to Beat Roulette/Baccarat-Part 2.

    But for now, lets see if we can give Beat The Wheel something to think about in his search to find something more stable. 

    Lets compare the single spin bet selection of FTL (Follow The Last) to the Group of 2 spins RB.  Remember, RB is a fixed bet, it does not change.  It does not rely on random for its bet selection.

    Playing Single Spin FTL you will have:

    RRRRRRRRRR Long Win Streak on Red (you win 10 units)
    BBBBBBBBBB Long Win Streak on Black (you win 10 units)
    RBRBRBRBRB Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
    BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)

    Playing Group of 2 Spins RB

    RRRRRRRRRR Break Even Streak on Red (you win 0 units)
    BBBBBBBBBB Break Even Streak on Black (you win 0 units)
    RBRBRBRBRB Long Win Steak on chops (you win 10 units)
    BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on chops (you lose 10 units)

    Do you see the difference?  FTL has 4 Long Streaks and Group of 2 Spins RB has only 2 Long Streaks and 2 break even streaks, hence the fluctuations (swings in your bankroll) will be less and you are more likely to get a more Stable Bet Result.

    This is not a system, nor strategy and there may be other bet selections that do the same but this is a difference that might indicate there is something more to this Group of Spins theory or perhaps Nick is full of it again.  Time will tell.


    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #459 on: July 09, 2018, 08:43:13 PM »
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  • Hello guys,

     The pairs in any format are always interesting to re-visit in case anything catches the eye.

    I always go back to either a missing pair of the following.....

    Red/Red or Black/Black

    Odd/Odd or Even/Even

    Low/Low or High/High

    In the following example, Red/Red has missed three times and is what I would term as the furthest back because the Red/Black, Black/Black and Black/Red are all more recent.





    The numbers and colour as they appear are as follows......

    27 R (L)
    8 B (W)
    2 B (W)
    34 R (L)
    31 B (W)
    31 B (W)
    18 R (L)
    13 B (W)
    26 B (W)
    26 B (W)
    17 B (W)
    34 R (L)
    6 B (W)
    36 R (L)
    21 R (L)
    22 B (W)
    24 B (W)
    21 R (L)
    22 B (W)
    30 R (L)
    9 R (L)
    23 R (L)


    The W/L registry is not too severe!


    I often think about VdW in it's simple guise and these pairs. You can play for the arithmetic progression in 9 spins and get a few losses and then no bet because of the mutual situation. Any missing or 'furthest back' pair has to give you a win if you back the opposite pair as long as the furthest back pair continues to miss (excluding the 0/00).


    cheers



    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.

    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #460 on: July 09, 2018, 10:06:23 PM »
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  • Just on the subject of the VdW for the E.C's.

    It was probably mentioned before somewhere, but you can run two different streams using the same numbers.

    So here, I am looking for the traditional arithmetic progression and also using a 'same/difference' stream as well.






    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.

    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #461 on: July 09, 2018, 10:12:27 PM »
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  • Now just thinking about it, I seem to remember you can't get a mutual bet situation up to spin 6. You can only get them from spin 7 onwards. So using the 2 streams like above up to spin 6 maybe isn't such a bad way instead of playing just the one stream through to spin 9.

    cheers
    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.

    Online Nickmsi

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #462 on: July 09, 2018, 11:34:26 PM »
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  • Hi Bally, thanks for your input.

    I too like the double streams as it gives you twice as many bets. 

    Nick

    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Use Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat
    « Reply #463 on: July 10, 2018, 10:46:55 AM »
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  • Cheers Nick!

     I am looking forward to reading/studying your part 2 of using math to beat Roulette/Baccarat. I know there are quite a few of us still looking into the 'non-random' concept and it will be interesting to read about any new developments.
    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.