+ Register

[alrelax]

"You might have heard the expression that the way to win is to play a game within a game.  In other words don�t play the Casino�s game, play your own game within the Casino�s game."


The above was a quote from NICKMSI's post within his first few sentences on the previous page. 

Very strong and very real words you said in your post here!

I just wrote something with that in mind, called Fallacy & Belief in Brief, in General Discussion Room. 

Possibly read it and think about it. 

[Nickmsi]

Hi Glen, Will be happy to read your post..

[Nickmsi]

In recent posts I explained the Triplets "Hot Hand" theory which says if you make a shot you will continue to make your shots.  In other words, if you get a R it should be followed by an R.  In a future  post we will explore the opposite, if you get an R you will more likely get a B.  This would disprove the "Hot Hand" theory.

But in the meantime, let's take a look at Group of 2 Spins, Fixed RBBRBRBRB in particular.  This is a Non-Random bet selection. It simple alternates the bet form R to B to R to B etc.  Never changes, it is mechanical. This is the Game within the Game of roulette/baccarat.

Because of this Fixed bet, you reduce the fluctuations of your results.  Remember, if you get a streak of Blacks this will win 50% of the time and likewise with a streak of Red you will win 50%.  This ALWAYS will happen.

In this Game something will ALWAYS happen.  Just like the VDW, an Arithmetic Progression will ALWAYS happen.

This is the point of a Non-Random system.  You are playing for something to ALWAYS HAPPEN verses playing a random game where you are only guessing when a repeat will happen, when a pattern will be formed etc (not withstanding your years of experience, knowledge and situational awareness).

Wouldn't you rather be playing for something you know has to happen rather than guessing??

Let's look at some empirical data regarding the Group of 2 spins, Fixed RBRBRB. This will clearly show the stability of your results.

I did 2 tests of 100,000 spins.  Both test used the same data.  Flat betting on both.

One test was the Non-Random Fixed RBRBRB and the other was a Random FTL (Follow The Last).

The results are attached.

Note the FTL had a High of 189 and a low of -260 which is a range of 449.

The RBRBRB had a high of 151 and a low of -122 which is a range of 273.

This lower range stabilizes your results, therefore, you need a smaller bankroll.

The FTL almost won 5/10 sessions.  The RBRBRB won 8/10.

FTL lost -326 units while the RBRBRB won +319 units.

I hope you are beginning to see some of the benefits of a Non-Random system.

Cheers

Nick

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Thanks Nickmsi for your charts and thought,
appreciate them.

May you please test this Non Random bet for double dozen, to see whether it is stable,  or streaky in nature.

If the last spin=dozen1, then bet dz1&dz2,
If the last spin=dozen2, then bet dz2&dz3,
If the last spin=dozen 3, then bet dz3&dz1,
If zero hit, then the previous last dozen  hit will be the indicator.

I tried to test,  by hand , small sample though, and found it rather stable, and streaky.

Thanks in advance.

[Nickmsi]

Hi Beat The Wheel,

Glad to be of help.  Your system is actually a Random system as the bet selection is based on a random event, ie, the last spin.

I have tested this random system with 10,000 live casino spins and the resulting graph is attached.

I also attached my excel sheet with this system so you can see the streaks etc.

Cheers

Nick

[ozon]

Let�s explore the Triplets further.  As shown earlier for binary events we should get a 3/6 (50%) result but we get 2.5/6 results exposing a bias to be exploited. This is for No Zero Roulette, Baccarat or Craps which can be binary.

This is a very small EDGE but it is consistent and can best be utilized with on line casino�s as you can play more spins per hour.

I used a mild progression for faster accumulation.

This is mechanical and boring.

This can be played one side only (ie, only Banker) or both sides (Red/Black).  I prefer both sides as we get twice as many bets.

Here are the rules for this 3 Spin/Hand Game:

Spin # 1:  NO BET
Spin # 2:  If Spin #1 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 1 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 3:  If Spin #2 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 2 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Spin # 4:  NO BET
Spin # 5:  If Spin #4 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 4 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 6:  If Spin #5 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 5 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Etc.

That�s it.  Simple and mechanical.

We just tested this system with 100,000 spins generated by Bet Voyager No Zero Casino.  It does not matter where the numbers came from as the Laws of Math apply to all numbers, RNG or otherwise.

The attached picture shows the results for these 100,000 spins and the 66,600 bets that were placed.
We tested these in 10,000 spins increments so you will see 10 results.

As you can see even with a progression it does not generate much of a profit/spin but a profit none the less and the results were consistent and stable from one session to another.

Cheers

Nick

wow
I have just read all concepts now.
I have one basic question, whether playing one side eg Player side, or are we able to generate a real edge?

Certainly Nick carried out the simulations of a completely flat bet.
What were the results after 10 k and 100k spins?

If they even gave a minimum edge of 0.2-0.5% over baccarat  house  edge, it would be a breakthrough in longrun.

[Kattila]

Hi Nick,
In your Triplets simulations did you noticed long bad runs like ? :
(each  1.  is the no bet from your example)

1.  R bet R
2.  B  L1, bet B
3.  R  L2
1.  R   bet R
2.  B  L1, bet B
3.  R  L2
1.  B  bet B
2.  R  L1, bet R
3.  B  L2
....so on....
If yes (long bad run of many consecutive L2) then maybe
is good to  stop at the second  L2, wait one wirtual W and
start again for real. Just curious if make any difference in
long run.
Also, did you try your bet with possitive progression?
Levels :
1,2 /  3,6 /  10,20 /  30,60 /  100, 200 /  300,600 (optional this last level)
Rise level after W session , reset at new high.
Down one level after L2. After twice in row L2 i would stop and wait
virtual W, then bet again for real.


Same when bet the chop bet RBRBRBR.....
i supose sometimes hit some long(or semi long) bad runs,
and try to avoid them with the Lw strategy.

[Nickmsi]

Hi Katilla,  I have not had the time to devote to exploring the Fixed RBRBRB method but you are correct, it will get long losing streaks of BRBRBR and conversely long winning streaks of RBRBRB.  You are right in that we can do a lot of virtually bets, switching of bets, multiple streams in order to improve the selection.  But right now I am concentrating on the Triplets, where I have a known edge.

Hi Ozon, I have attached my Flat betting results for the Triplets.  The first 3 are just graphs of the 10 results and the last is the summary showing we won 6/10 sessions for a profit of 173 units.

I have shown previously the 'Hot Hand" system where it was expected that if you hit a shot, you would more likely to hit the next shot, ie, a Red would follow a Red, etc.

In the next postings I will show you that this is a fallacy.  Stay tuned.

Cheers

Nick

[Kattila]

I was talking about Triplets also, the eventual use of the LWs strategy
and maybe possitive progression.

[plolp]

Far from me the idea of wanting to denigrate these research on the VDW, but when I hear about "non-random" bets, I feel obliged to intervene.
Because the theorem of VDW does not say that we must play the moves by following.

Take any series of 9 disjoint spins in permanence, and the VDW theorem will be respected.
Which means that no matter if you bet "red" or "black", you respect the "VDW".

In other words when you bet "red" by following a certain procedure of "VDW", another bet "black" while also respecting the "VDW".

They both make "non-random" bets as you say!

[Nickmsi]

We have shown that the Triplets have a bias of 2.5/6 instead of 3/6 but did the bias apply to following  the Hot Hand or Against them making the shots.

I was not sure, so I have tested both ways.

Earlier we showed how to bet FOR the Hot Hand to continue, ie, if they made a shot it would be followed by another basket, Red follow Red, Banker follows Banker etc.

Now let's see what happens if we bet AGAINST the Hot Hand continuing, ie, we are betting that another basket will NOT be made. 
This means Black would follow a Red, Player would follow a Banker, etc.

Here are the rules for this 3 Spin/Hand Game betting AGAINST:

Spin # 1:  NO BET
Spin # 2:  If Spin #1 is Red Bet Black, If Spin # 1 is Black Bet Red
Spin # 3:  If Spin #2 is Red Bet Black, If Spin # 2 is Black Bet Red, End of Game
Spin # 4:  NO BET
Spin # 5:  If Spin #4 is Red Bet Black, If Spin # 4 is Black Bet Red
Spin # 6:  If Spin #5 is Red Bet Black, If Spin # 5 is Black Bet Red, End of Game
Etc.

I have attached 2 pictures of each result Flat Betting. 

Betting FOR the Hot Hand to continue won 5/10 sessions for a loss of -358 units.

Betting AGAINST the Hot Hand continuing won 6/10 for a profit of 173 units.

Based on the above results betting AGAINST the previous spin/hand in the 3 Step Triplet method has the EDGE.

Once again, the EDGE is small so we need to add a progression to make it playable.  More to come.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hi Nickmsi,
I wonder if we could bet Vdw, for short term,

(Bet every trigger@9spins....reset win or lose)
Say, 2person play both sides, as a team,
with positive prog.1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ...that
add 1u, when win, (but stay at 1u, when lose from beginning).
Stop at single profit.

eg,
RRBBBBBBB

red lose 1u, B won more....

Please test.
Thanks in advance.

[Nickmsi]

Hi Beat The Wheel, we are concentrating 100% on getting the best combinations and progressions possible for the Triplet system that we are far behind in coding systems for others, like yourself.

Testing is time consuming so at this time we can report that we have several good results so far.

Let's review.

The PHD's and PDF mathematical reports shown earlier concluded:

"We prove that in a finite sequence of data that is generated by repeated realizations of a binary i.i.d.
random variable, the expected proportion of successes, on those realizations that immediately follow
a streak of successes, is strictly less than the underlying probability of success."

This means that a "finite sequence of data" is 3 Spins/hands.

"binary random variables" is Red or Black, Banker or Player, Pass or Don't Pass.

"immediately follow a streak of successes" is Red following Red, Player following Player etc.

"is strictly less than the underlying probability of success" is the EDGE.

That's the math of it. 

Our empirical data testing 100,000 spins confirms this EDGE.

What does it mean for playing.

A mechanical and simple to play system

Each of you can determine the best way for you to play, the best combination of systems and the best progressions to use or flat
betting.

Our priority is to find the best system to play for 1,000 to 2,000 spins/hands per day.  So far we can conclude that a combination of Doublets and Triplets is better than just the Triplets alone.

Cheers
Nick

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hi Nickmsi,
It very interesting that " combination of doublet and triplet, better than triplet alone, "..(.please tell more., how to play the combination.)

Lets pretend that we have edge, or zero edge in 1000placed bets, then imho, this a way to bet....

Virtual bet till extreme variance hit, huge drawdown, say -30 to -50, in first 250 placed bet,
then  bet 1u, for next 250, then 2u for next 250, then 4u for next 250bet......

If it definitely ,  has edge, zero edge, or even -1% edge, then it must win,

It like 500black&500red  balls, in a bag, take out a ball, and cast aside, lookout whichever color drawn out the most in the frst 250, then bet the other color.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

In other word,
If we could have a
of non random,  bet of 1000placed bet, that ALWAYS,

Have little edge, or ZERO edge, or EVEN -3% edge,

Then, winning with variance management virtual bet, and mild progression, is not a problem...
The trillion dollar question,

Can we create that 1000spins strategy? That with HE not over -3%?