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[Nickmsi]

A lot has been posted by Alrelax and Gizmotron about how they win using their years of experience, knowledge of the game, situational awareness etc.

Others like Xander and Mike have posted that you need an edge.

I am not here to debate the merits of Alrelax and Gizmotron's methods, but I would like to explore Xander's and Mikes position of having an EDGE.

What is an EDGE?  Can you actually get an EDGE?  To me an EDGE would be something mathematical, statistical or physical that would turn the odds or probability in your favor.

Since each spin is independent you have the same chance (1/37) of hitting any number and getting paid 35-1 instead of 37-1, hence the Casino's edge.

So what can you do?  Simple:  DON'T' PLAY EACH SPIN.  Don't play the Casino's game.

Play GROUP OF SPINS.  As I posted in part 1:

https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-math-to-beat-roulettebaccarat/

The VDW plays with a GROUP OF 9 spins, however it is complex and difficult to play.

Let's start with something easier to understand.

When you play with a GROUP OF SPINS a dependency can be created, they are no longer independent spins, thus you are no longer playing the Casino's game.

You might have heard the expression that the way to win is to play a game within a game.  In other words don't play the Casino's game, play your own game within the Casino's game.

What I like to explore are 3 different Group of Spins examples:

1.   Doublets fixed and it's effect.
2.   Doublets as a Game and it's effect
3.   Triplets as a  Game and it's effect




DOUBLETS FIXED AND IT'S EFFECT

Let's compare the single spin bet selection of FTL (Follow The Last) to the static Doublets  "RB".  Remember, RB is a fixed bet, it does not change.  RBRBRBRBRB.  It is non-random.

Playing Single Spin FTL you will have:

RRRRRRRRRR Long Win Streak on Red (you win 10 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Long Win Streak on Black (you win 10 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)

Playing Doublets fixed "RB"

RRRRRRRRRR Break Even Streak on Red (you win 0 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Break Even Streak on Black (you win 0 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Win Steak on chops (you win 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on chops (you lose 10 units)

Do you see the difference?  FTL has 4 Long Streaks and Group of 2 Spins RB has only 2 Long Streaks and 2 break even streaks, hence the fluctuations (swings in your bankroll) will be less and you are more likely to get a more Stable Bet Result.
Playing a fixed Doublet does not change the odds but it does change the fluctuation in your results. This is all I wanted to show you, ie, playing with a Group of Spins has an effect.  This is simply the first step to understanding my Group of Spins theory.

DOUBLETS AS A GAME AND IT'S EFFECT

Now let's take the Fixed Doublets and make it a Game (bet selection).

The Game will be to bet that the second spin in the Doublet will match the first spin. This is similar to FTL but it only applies every second spin, not every spin.  It too, is non-random.

So if first spin is a B we bet for another B to get BB, end of Game after 2 Spins.  If first spin is a R we bet R to get RR after 2 spins, end of Game.

If we got a BR or RB then we lose the Game.

I thought getting a BB or RR would be the same as getting an RB or BR.

I was wrong.

It takes an average of 4 Spins to get RB or BR while it takes an average of 6 spins to get either BB or RR.

The reason it takes longer is because there are no "overlapping" RR or BB.  For example if you have "RRRR".  If you are playing the Casino's game (every spin) you would have 3 Sets of RR (1&2 Spins, 2&3rd spins and 3rd&4th spins).

Playing our Game of Doublets you would only have 2 sets of RR (1st&2nd spin and 3rd & 4th spins). Remember the Game ends after the 2nd spin and a new Game begins on 3rd Spin.

Check out this YouTube for a more detailed explanation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDw2Pu0-H4g

Now can you see how a Group of Spins can affect the outcome?  One would assume that RB and BR would have the same number of spins to complete as BB and RR but it is not so. This is another tool that may be used in your quest to beat roulette/baccarat.

TRIPLETS AS A GAME AND IT'S EFFECT

Here are the 8 possibilities for Triplets

RRR
BBB
RRB
RBR
RBB
BBR
BRB
BRR

The non-random Game will be as follows:

If the first spin is a "R", then we bet that the second spin in the Triplet will also be a "R". If the 2nd spin is an "R", we will bet the third spin to be a "R".

This Game eliminates 2 of the 8 Triplets, ie. BBB does not have an R and BBR has a R in the 3rd spin but that does not count as the Game ends on the 3rd spin.  This is the key, the Game ends after 3 spins.  This is your Game, you control what you want to do.

So we only have 6 Triplets to play with.  Remember we are only looking for an R to follow an R.
         Result    Fraction
BRB      B       0
RBB      B       0
BRR      R       1
RBR      B        0
RRB      RB       .5
RRR      RR       1
         Totals 2.5/6
   
One would expect a 50/50 (3/6) outcome but because we are playing our own Game (Group of 3 Spins) we can create a Bias or would we call this an EDGE?

Check out this visual explanation on You Tube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPZFQ6i759g

For those more mathematically inclined check out the attached PDF.

I hope I have been able to show you that a Group of 2 Spins (Doublets Fixed) did not change the odds but did change the fluctuation in results AND the same Group of 2 spins when played as a Game can have unequal outcomes AND finally that a Game (Triplets), a Group of 3 spins can show a bias or an Edge.

I trust this will give you a little more insight into how to use math and statistics to your benefit.

Cheers

Nick

[Gizmotron]

I get that you don't want to hear more gizmotron crud. When you go looking for randomness characteristics you will run right into what causes them. You can decide that it is due or you will understand that it is just coincidence.


Once you see the global effect you will never be able to then not see it anymore.


Now you don't need to be bored by my content in your thread.

[Kattila]

***
Playing a fixed Doublet does not change the odds but it does change the fluctuation in your results. This is all I wanted to show you, ie, playing with a Group of Spins has an effect.  This is simply the first step to understanding my Group of Spins theory.
***
I agree with you.

Did you ever try other ways of non -random, like fixed patterns made by splits or streets ?
Not complete EC s groups yet, but are growing groups.

Ex. streets :

Str  /  Pattern (chops)

3        1
7        2
12      1 
8        2
1        1
4        2
5        1
9        2 bet for change (to become series)

Or,

Str / pattern (series of two)

7         1
12       1
3         2
8         2
9         1
2         1
11       2
4         2    bet to become series of 3
                 ( or bet for singles)

I bet for max. 5 spins,  example next spins

9         1           L1
1         1 new    L2
5         2 new    L3
4         2           L4
11       2           W

many ways and patterns( non random ) to play

[Nickmsi]

Hello Gizmotron, sorry if you thought I was attacking the way you play, I was certainly not.  My point was that your method and Alrelax method were both thoroughly discussed previously but Xander and Mike's point of an "EDGE" has not been.  I am just trying to do "oppositional research" and see if we can actually get an EDGE without using a physical bias.

Perhaps Xander or Mike have an EDGE and if so, they might give us a direction to follow.

Hello Kattila, I just love exploring non-random patterns like you have outlined, however, I am a coder and I need step by step instructions in order to follow what you are explaining.  Could you kindly using just 1 pattern show what the pattern is and how you obtain a bet selection?  More details.  Thanks.

[Bally6354]

Thanks Nick for starting another interesting thread on ideas surrounding non-random concepts.

I did a quick 200 spin test using random.org to test the doublets just to see how the averages performed and they were pretty much in line with what the video suggested. It's always great to see things in a different light because it gets the creativity going.

[Kattila]

***
Hello Kattila, I just love exploring non-random patterns like you have outlined, however, I am a coder and I need step by step instructions in order to follow what you are explaining.  Could you kindly using just 1 pattern show what the pattern is and how you obtain a bet selection?  More details.  Thanks.
***

Hi Nick, i have few methods based on same base, but let s start with one
easy from above. This one is with 2 group ( 1 and 2 ) other methods with
3 groups ( 1,2 and 3 ). Can use also splits .

Wait 8 different streets , or can be repeats but must be in the same
group and following the pattern  11221122. After the trigger  11221122
if new street hit and we lose , put that street in same order /pattern.
It s safer to wait 10 streets ( 1122112211) but long time to wait.
We bet (after trigger ) for position 2 or for series of 3.

Str /  pattern and group

4        1
7        1
11      2
6        2
12      1
4        1 (see repeat in same group)
9        2
2        2  bet group 2
7        1          L1,  bet group 2
3        1 new   L2   bet group 1
10      2 new    L3  bet gr 1
8        2  new  L4   bet gr 2
2        2           W


So bet for max. 5 spins, W or L5 , retrack.
Progression levels /possitive, rise only after W session if necesary,
never rise after L5, better  down one level:

1,2,3,5,10 /  12,15,25,40,70 / 80 ,90,120,150 ,200.

Other example,

Str / pattern

3         1
11       1
5         2
8         2
1         1
4         1
12       2
10       2  bet  group 2
2         1 new     l1   bet gr 2
3          1           l2  bet gr 1
7          2 new     l3  bet gr 1
5          2            l4   bet gr 2       
12         2           w

cheers

[Bally6354]

The stats for the doublets get interesting when you run two different streams.

So taking the 4 combinations which could be anything really...…

11
12
22
21

I got the following after a few more short tests....

11 = 48/6 = 8 (weakest)
12 = 41/12 = 3.5
22 = 41/9 = 4.5
21 = 45/13 = 3.5

2nd test

11 = 30/6 = 5
12 = 39/13 = 3
22 = 21/3 = 7 (weakest)

21 = 39/13 = 3


Based on that info, my approach would be to play against the weakest when opportunities arose.


cheers

[james]

Are you assuming that the weak will continue to be weak and not become strong and come back with a vengeance?

[Nickmsi]

Glen has posted several threads on how math can never beat baccarat so I thought it important to go over the basic concept of Non-Random.  We need to understand what this is all about before proceeding further.

Random means anything is possible.

Non Random are limiting events.  They can be limited by Physics or Math.

A physical roulette wheel that is out of balance due to dust and dirt accumulating around the spindle would cause the ball to favor a sector. The Laws of Physics dictate that the ball has to drop in one sector more often than any other. It HAS TO HAPPEN, it HAS TO OBEY the Laws of Physics.

This is a Non Random event.  The Laws of Physics pay absolutely NO ATTENTION to the random nature of the game, nor to Casino's edge of 2.57%.  It cares less that a number will repeat on average once every 8 spins.  So what if the Law of Thirds produces 13 unhit numbers in 37 spins.

Do you see the point here?  Throw out the laws of probability and possibilities normally associated with roulette.  They don't matter. What matters is that the Law of Physics will produce results not associated with random. Gravity will make sure that ball lands in the same sector again and again.

It is easy to see why a biased wheel favors a sector and has nothing to do with the normal probabilities and possibilities associated with roulette.

It is more difficult to understand that the Laws of Math are also a Non Random event.  It too does not care about the probabilities or possibilities inherent in Roulette or Baccarat.

The first law that I explored was the VDW as outlined in Part 1 of my series.

https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-math-to-beat-roulettebaccarat/

To refresh your memory on this theory it states that in any binary event (like Red/Black, Banker/Player, Pass/Don't Pass) you will always and I mean ALWAYS have an Arithmetic Progression within 9 Spins/hands.

Just like 1+1=2, this law always happens regardless of the endless possibilities.

I am not advocating a strategy yet, I just want everyone to understand this VDW law.  If you don't just give me 9 spins/hands (without ties or zero) and I will always show you an Arithmetic Progression.

Do you understand the importance of the Laws of Math.  They ALWAYS happen.  Would you rather develop a bet selection based on probabilities or based on something that ALWAYS happens? 
That was a rhetorical question.

Before proceeding, does everyone understand the concept of Non Random and how the Laws of Math apply?  Any questions?

Cheers

Nick

[Mike]

Nick,

I don't really see the distinction that you're trying to make between random and non-random (or the "laws of probability" and "the laws of math").

Random means anything is possible.

Non Random are limiting events.  They can be limited by Physics or Math.

A physical roulette wheel that is out of balance due to dust and dirt accumulating around the spindle would cause the ball to favor a sector. The Laws of Physics dictate that the ball has to drop in one sector more often than any other. It HAS TO HAPPEN, it HAS TO OBEY the Laws of Physics.

But the laws of physics are always working, not only if the wheel is biased. "Random" just means we are ignorant of the true causes of an event. We can know things which MUST happen, such as that there must be at least one repeat in 38 spins on a single zero wheel, but it doesn't help us to predict the next number. Conversely, there are probabilistic situations (where the outcomes are not fully determined) where we actually CAN predict the outcome to a degree better than chance (an example would be visual ballistics).

[Nickmsi]

Hi Mike, sorry if I ramble and cause confusion.

The distinction that I was trying to make is this:

The Laws of Physics totally disregard the probabilities of the wheel.

The Laws of Math totally disregard the probabilities of the wheel.

Random does not affect the Laws of Physics or Math, hence the term NON-RANDOM.

We play the game in a Non-Random manner where PAST SPINS ARE NECESSARY.

It is an entirely new way to approach the games.

When you play a Non-Random game you are playing for something to happen according to the Laws of Math, thus you are increasing the accuracy of your predictions.

[Nickmsi]

Let's explore the Triplets further.  As shown earlier for binary events we should get a 3/6 (50%) result but we get 2.5/6 results exposing a bias to be exploited. This is for No Zero Roulette, Baccarat or Craps which can be binary.

This is a very small EDGE but it is consistent and can best be utilized with on line casino's as you can play more spins per hour.

I used a mild progression for faster accumulation.

This is mechanical and boring.

This can be played one side only (ie, only Banker) or both sides (Red/Black).  I prefer both sides as we get twice as many bets.

Here are the rules for this 3 Spin/Hand Game:

Spin # 1:  NO BET
Spin # 2:  If Spin #1 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 1 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 3:  If Spin #2 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 2 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Spin # 4:  NO BET
Spin # 5:  If Spin #4 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 4 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 6:  If Spin #5 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 5 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Etc.

That's it.  Simple and mechanical.

We just tested this system with 100,000 spins generated by Bet Voyager No Zero Casino.  It does not matter where the numbers came from as the Laws of Math apply to all numbers, RNG or otherwise.

The attached picture shows the results for these 100,000 spins and the 66,600 bets that were placed.
We tested these in 10,000 spins increments so you will see 10 results.

As you can see even with a progression it does not generate much of a profit/spin but a profit none the less and the results were consistent and stable from one session to another.

Cheers

Nick

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hi Nickmsi,
Just my 1cent,
(As you, and many members here already know this method,)
If you very sure that your vdw, will have EDGE, in 1000placed bet, flatbet, or even zero edge, or -1% edge,

Then simply play virtual, restart at every virtual profit,
till it show reasonable drawdown,  (without any profit, or losing,
from the begining of virtual bet),then start bet, flatbet till profit.

[Kattila]

Hi Nick, did you try your bet with possitive progression?
Levels :
1,2 /  3,6 /  10,20 /  30,60 /  100, 200 /  300,600 (optional this last level)
Rise level after W session , reset at new high.
Down one level after L2. After twice in row L2 i would stop and wait
virtual W, then bet again for real.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here one of my non -random ECs bet
see excel file

[Nickmsi]

Thanks Katilla, will download and test it out.

Cheers

Nick