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[Tomla]

WEST COAST to EAST COAST

One trendy concept being used by the media is that NFL West Coast teams traveling eastsuffer declines in performance. It's certainly reasonable to hypothesize that the combination of long flights, strange beds and time zone changes confuse internal body clocks and prevent players and teams from performing up to expectations.[/font]
With this in mind, we used our testing to examine the theory of West Coast teams traveling east and find out just how truthful it is. To start, we had to first find a way to measure expected performance. Similar to our monday night analysis, we can't use straight up wins and losses since they don't provide a realistic measure of performance. For example, San Diego is traveling to Jacksonville this week as 7.5-point favorites. Since 2003, favorites of -7.5 and greater are 543-108 (83.4%) straight up, so concluding that a San Diego victory alone meant they met expectations would be incorrect.
Instead, we can use against the spread (ATS) records as a much better indicator. It's safe to assume that the favorite in each matchup is "expected" to be the better team and the actual size of the spread define "how much better" the favorite is expected to be. Therefore, we would define a 3-point Chargers victory as underperforming since they did not cover the spread. Conversely, a 10-point win would cover the 7.5-point spread, indicating that San Diego outperformed expectations and "played well" against Jacksonville.
With our measure of performance defined, we compiled ATS records for the four NFL teams located in the Pacific Time Zone (San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers and Seattle Seahawks) when traveling to play in the Mountain, Central and Eastern Time Zones.
The table below displays the results, since 2005:

GAME TIME ZONE[/size][/font][/color]

ATS RECORD[/size][/font][/color]

ATS WIN RATE[/size][/font][/color]

Mountain

22-10

68.8%

Central

37-44

45.7%

Eastern

44-57

43.6%

Interestingly, ATS performance of Pacific Time Zone teams gets progressively worse as they travel further east. Based on these results, we can conclude that West Coast teams don't meet expectations and therefore "play badly" when traveling to the East Coast.
While we have achieved our original goal by confirming this concept, we decided to now look at this from a betting theory perspective in order to learn how to take advantage going forward. Using the analysis above as a baseline, we also tested other scenarios and found that Pacific Time Zone teams traveling east perform even worse after covering the spread in their previous game.
The table below displays ATS records for Pacific Time Zone teams, coming off an ATS victory in their most recent game, dating back to 2005:

GAME TIME ZONE[/size][/font][/color]

ATS RECORD[/size][/font][/color]

ATS WIN RATE[/size][/font][/color]

Mountain

6-8

42.9%

Central

16-26

38.1%

Eastern

16-38

29.6%

For the record, this added wrinkle is not related to the teams' actual travel, but is instead a reflection of betting market overreaction. The betting public tends to focus on recent results and will back teams that covered the spread in their latest game. In turn, oddsmakers react by shading lines, forcing bettors who like these teams to take them at bad numbers.
Sharp bettors wait for these market overreactions and take advantage by betting against the Pacific Time Zone teams, knowing they only cover the spread at a rate of 29.6%.


Hope these Tips help you become a better Punter
TOMLA

[Tomla]

For the Lazy!!! here are games to look at , that doesn't mean that I would bet them !!!

week 7 SD@ JAX
week 9  SD@ Wash
week 10 Oak @NYG, Seattle@Atlanta
week 11 SD @ Miami

[Albalaha]

I beg to differ here. There are sports that needs much of stamina than NFL matches like Test Matches in Cricket. People travel across globe and yet they play very well. It can have some micro level effects but it can't affect the performance of a team so much that can make a tilt even slightly towards losses.

[Tomla]

I really have no idea of what you said? Im talking NFL not cricket--don't you get that?

[Tomla]

omg you have no understanding of 0

[Albalaha]

Another Sports Fallacy. Can you establish this presumption of yours by any scientific analysis? If your presumption (if I do not call it fallacy) is scientific, you should be able to prove its effect in past records too. Can you?

[Tomla]

I just did!!!! are you brain dead?

[Tomla]

I just gave you stats from 2005---? do you actually read?

[Albalaha]

Tom,
        will you ever learn to speak like a gentleman and argue in a behaved manner than shouting and speaking foul? I just asked that if your presumption regarding travelling have any scientific basis or merely a hypothesis or fallacy. Do you have any record of losing matches against the natural odds due to this?
          Hypothesis and scientific truth have world of difference. If it is a scientific reason, it should affect all matches not just in 2005 alone.

[Tomla]

Look above --I gave all of the stats?

[Tomla]

your problem is that you don't know how to read?

[Tomla]

hint albahala--cricket and NHL don't correspond--but good luck

[Tomla]

NFL

[Tomla]

one day Albahala will learn how to read,, but good luck until then

[Albalaha]

One day Tomla will learn to write my username correctly and to speak like a gentleman.
lol[smiley]aes/wink.png[/smiley]