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[Drazen]

Hello

I wonder does anyone has a clue how and where this phenomena can be seen/proven/found in this sort of betting?

Drazen

[Missmusibat]

Hello Drazen,

Yes it does exist. But it is not very straightforward. Let me try to explain best with an example, as this needs to weave together with the value of the bet and odds in which it is available. I will explain in layman's language without getting into the complexities of it. Please take this as a concept, more than welcome to answer any queries you might have.

Everton v Westbrom
This season Everton average number of goals per game is 3. Westbrom is 2.3
The overall average of Everton number of goals at home is 3.3. Last season this figure was 3.

The manager's philosophy has not changed. Now see the sample of last 4 home games. 3 below the average and 1 just above the average.

Now lets look at the next four games at home including today. Liverpool, Leicester city, Newcastle and today Westbrom. For this sample not to be on the extreme like the current sample, we expect a 3 goal average every game and if not 2 games above and 2 games below. Now take a look at the odds. Overs are giving average of 2.00 odds where as unders are providing around 1.8 mark.

Considering all these parameters, today is a game we can expect overs at 2.00 odds. Now it is not a single bet. If lost it will stretch across the next 3 matches as well. The expectation is this sample of 4 will be closer to average and not as extreme as the last sample of 4 matches.

This is just a sample. I will quote more examples as it comes along.

[Drazen]

Thanks for the reply. Very interesting, sir.

I had in mind to show this but in a bit different example. Through the asian lines (ATS) in NBA for the past ten years. I hope I ll catch enough of free time soon for this.

I am semi professional player and regression to the mean is my main bet selection. I play soccer mainly but NBA and NCAA too. I have overall yield about 15%. But I incorporate progression and my own money mangement.

Cheers

Drazen