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[alrelax]

KungFuBac's pick is the 49'ers.

My pick is the Chiefs.

I have to go with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to get it done.

Any thoughts?

[KungFuBac]

I like the 49ers. I don't watch NFL football, however, I do like the SF qb Brock Purdy.

The current (2/3/24) consensus favorite from major books has SF @ -2, and -110 on the moneyline. One book is offering SF at -2, -105. So I would definitely take the moneyline bet @ 105 since anything less than 130 on the moneyline makes the moneyline a superior bet(better value bet) vs the (-2). Of course Im banking on "Big Clock" Brock having a great game.


I agree coach Andy Reid is a wise old veteran coach with decades of experience. So I'm hesitant to go against him. Same as for the KC qb Mahomes as he too has been here before. When in doubt I tend to go with the older more experienced guy(same as in gaming). Old veteran players just know a few more "tricks-to-the-trade".

It should be a good game.


PS
For anyone that likes the underdog(KC) with the spread at (2) the key metric for the money line is +108. So anything better than 108 makes the moneyline bet a slightly better value  VS (-2) points. Meaning if you are getting 2 points, that's the moneyline equivalent of taking no points and getting $108 for a $100 bet.
It is currently at 110 at most books with one book offering 115.



Best of luck to all,

[8OR9]

I will now tell everyone who will win the Super Bowl and I will 100 % guarantee that I will be right.


So who will win the Super Bowl ?


The winner of the Super Bowl will be..........................

Wait for it....wait for it..............


The winner of the Supe Bowl will be...................





The team that scores the most points



I apologize...I couldn't resist it......feel free to delete this post.

[alrelax]

A few thoughts and quotes from Mahomes.

"The Kansas City Chiefs are set to compete in a second-consecutive Super Bowl, and their third in the last four seasons.

After going through the process of preparing for the championship game so many times throughout his career, quarterback Patrick Mahomes understands the importance of dialing in his strategy ahead of Kansas City's matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

While speaking to the media on Thursday, Mahomes explained the significance of understanding Andy Reid's entire game plan.

"We're pretty locked in this — I mean both weeks, but you're really locked in this week," Mahomes said. "You want to make sure you get the whole game plan in, get all your questions asked and answered so next week when you're reviewing you can just go into the fine details that you might not have the chance to do in the regular game week. I'll have that mindset all through practice. I'll make sure the guys have the same mindset."

The Chiefs will have their hands full against a stacked 49ers team that possesses hall-of-fame talent throughout the roster. Kansas City's coaching staff and players must have everything organized if they want to defend their Super Bowl title and claim yet another Lombardi Trophy."

[alrelax]

Governor Newsom from California.  Gotta love this guy.

On MSNBC Sunday Night. (See picture attached)

What does it mean to beat someone handily?
"with no difficulty"

I might be wrong............ but..........Oh Please. 

BTW Governor Newsom, you better concentrate on the State of Emergency for the weather you are getting bombarded by and not Taylor Swift and her boyfriend, Travis Kelce. Respectfully, Alrelax.

Seriously dude!  "Handily"? 

Patrick Mahomes:  Becoming the first player to win NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same year since Kurt Warner in 1999, and joined Tom Brady and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks to win multiple regular season and Super Bowl MVPs. In the 2023 season, he advanced to Super Bowl LVIII, his fourth Super Bowl appearance in five seasons.

Since becoming the Chiefs' starting quarterback, Mahomes has led the team to six consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances from the 2018 season through the 2023 season, which is second place for the most consecutive conference championship game appearances by a quarterback. Mahomes' career accolades through seven seasons in the NFL have earned him widespread praise from sports journalists, and he is considered to be one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.

Travis Kelce:  Considered one of the greatest tight ends of all time, Kelce is a nine-time Pro Bowler and a four-time first-team All-Pro selection. He holds the NFL record for most consecutive and most overall seasons with 1,000 yards receiving by a tight end with seven. He also owns the record for most receiving yards by a tight end in a single season with 1,416 in 2020, despite playing in only 15 games. He also briefly held the single season record in 2018 before it was broken later that same day. During the 2022 season, Kelce became the fastest tight end to reach 10,000 career receiving yards, and he became the fifth tight end in NFL history to reach the milestone. Kelce was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team. During the 2023 season, he surpassed Jerry Rice in career playoff receptions en route to Super Bowl LVIII, his fourth Super Bowl appearance in five seasons.

Andy Reid:  Reid was previously head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles from 1999 to 2012. From 2001 to 2012, he was also the Eagles' executive vice president of football operations. He is the only NFL coach to win 100 games and appear in four consecutive conference championships with two different franchises.

Reid began his professional coaching career with the Green Bay Packers, where he served as an offensive assistant from 1992 to 1998 and was a member of the team that won Super Bowl XXXI. He held his first head coaching position with the Eagles in 1999, who became perennial postseason contenders under his leadership. Reid led the Eagles to nine playoff runs, six division titles, five NFC Championship Games (including four consecutive from 2001 to 2004), and an appearance in Super Bowl XXXIX. Despite his success, Reid was unable to win a Super Bowl title and he left Philadelphia in 2012 amid a team decline.

Hired as the head coach of the Chiefs in 2013, Reid helped revitalize the struggling franchise into one of the league's best. In 11 seasons with Kansas City, he has led the Chiefs to 10 postseason appearances, eight consecutive division titles, six consecutive AFC Championship Games, four Super Bowl appearances, and two Super Bowl titles. Reid also won the Chiefs' first playoff game since 1993 in the 2015 season, clinched their first consecutive division titles between 2016 and 2017, and won their first Super Bowl in 50 years in Super Bowl LIV.

[8OR9]

The most important person in the Super Bowl is not a player but Stephen Christopher Spagnuolo, who is the KC Defensive Coach and was responsible for shutting down the Baltimore Ravens.

If he can shut down the SF offence, KC is the winner.

As far as Mahones, we will find out how good he really is if Kelce retires ,,,because how many hundreds of times have you seen Mahones  scrambling and then finding Kelce for an    8 to 12 yard gain?

If you don't have the greatest tight end of all time to get you out of a jam when you are scrambling, then you are looking at

1. A pass out of bounds
2, An incomplete pass
3. A fumble
4. An interception

It only takes 1 or 2 of those plays a game to turn a winning game into a loss.

[KungFuBac]

8OR9: "...The most important person in the Super Bowl is not a player but Stephen Christopher Spagnuolo, who is the KC Defensive Coach and was responsible for shutting down the Baltimore Ravens.

If he can shut down the SF offence, KC is the winner..."


Good observation 8OR9. A couple days ago the sports handicapping GOAT "Billy Walters" did an interview at the Superbowl festivities and suggested the same thing. He noted that was one of KC main strengths. He thought the 49ers defensive coach Steve Wilkes was, in his words, "mediocre at best". He also gave an edge to KC qb Pat Mahomes because he previously played in Superbowls vs SF qb Brock "The Glock" Purdy.

*I am also a little suspicious that Billy Walters would openly state his picks so maybe he has other motives. In my opinion a gambler (i.e., Investor) is a gambler 24-7.
BW liked KC at +2 and moneyline is now moving to ~~ 110--115 and I saw a couple books actually moved the line down to KC =+1.5 this morning. B. Walters suggested he may buy some points to move it @ +3, and take KC and the points.

Im still going with "The Glock",  @ -1.5


Wishing everyone a winning ticket.

[alrelax]

Not one doubt in my mind, the whole way!

Glad I took The Chiefs and the couple of points!

[ADulay]

Got the win with the Chiefs +2.

Lost the OVER by a 1/2 point.

That was my third OVER loss by a half point this year.

I hate it when that happens.

AD

[8OR9]

Adulay.......unfortunately looks you got "hooked"    ........losing by 1/2 point.

Happens all the time.

[alrelax]

Lots of talk around yesterday and this morning about the 49'ers, why and how they shoulda won it.

Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda, etc., etc., yadda yadda yadda.

But they didn't.  Plain and simple. 

Just like in Baccarat boys.  Put table max on the Bankers and Players returns a Natural 9 and we get a Natural 8. 

Shoulda bet the Players, but didn't. 

[KungFuBac]

Congrats to all with winning super bowl wagers.

That would not be I(I wasn't near a book so couldn't place any wagers). IF I could I would have and would have lost.
I liked SF -points at any spot below <=2.5. As we all know (3) is one of the magic point numbers to watch for when wagering football(based on the way fb is scored).

I actually perceived this was historically one of the better "value bets" for superbowls as the line surprisingly hovered around 2.0--2.5 in the two weeks leading up to kickoff. I would have guessed it would have begun the week at 3.0 or 3.5 thus creating numerous  "push" opportunities for the books.

I didn't watch the game but based on box scores and highlights it appears that it was a well played and tight game for the most part(a few unnecessary penalties for 49ers).

*As 8OR9 mentioned "before" the superbowl the chiefs DC Steve Spagnoula would play a vital part in the W. He most certainly did a great job. I saw a couple days ago he received a well-deserved extension/pay raise. Good for him.

** I also saw where 49ers DC steve wilkes was fired.



Congrats to all,