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[Bally6354]

My advice would be to pick a sport where you consider yourself to be more knowledgeable than the majority and work from there.

Then have patience and look for value.

I would say I have a good knowledge of cricket compared to most people. William Hill were offering 1/1 on England winning the Ashes (up to a £20 bet)  Now I considered that the odds of 1/1 were generous taking everything into consideration.

I already had my 'bookies bus route' mapped out from previous forays and managed to get a bit on.

There is so much competition nowadays what with the online market and such... you can get value in your chosen sport if you are patient and make money.

Ok, so it's a shameless plug of a winning bet I had! [smiley]aes/blush.png[/smiley] But there is a lesson in it.

[Priyanka]

Rather a suggestion to not bet without information on the game.

Thanks and completely with you. I may not be an expert in the game I have chosen, but I think I can take informed decisions based on the knowledge that is available with me and available in sporting sites. I am going to start small may be 50$ to start with, as that is something that I can afford losing, while I learn the tricks of the trade. And I am going to stick to the win/lose/draw on the game bets to start with rather than going into the bets on detailed elements on the game.

Cheers
Yanks

[BrenoGarcia]

Betfair is the best site to make money with sports betting. The house is unlike any other, because in Betfair you bet on a structure similar to the stock market, where there are bets for or against the results.


About the style of play, do not use any betting system. I prefer to bet against the results, called LAY. And I think yes, it is very important to the sport in question. I bet on football, which is my passion since childhood and I follow. I bet championships in Brazil, England, Spain, Italy, France, Russia, Ukraine, the Netherlands, Portugal and others, I have the opportunity to follow. I'm not a criterion of percentage of bankroll, simply bet a value that I know I can recover. The big secret is that you can maximize your successes and minimize your losses. In the first few months, I lost a lot of money, because I was still in the process of learning, today, can have a very good balance and on average make $ 500 a week ... some weeks more, some less, but always with a good balance to the end of the month. Nowadays, I play roulette  because I like, but gain much more money with sports betting on betfair.

[Priyanka]

Betfair is the best site to make money with sports betting. The house is unlike any other, because in Betfair you bet on a structure similar to the stock market, where there are bets for or against the results.

I don't think I get it. Actually I thought you always bet for or against a decision. For example, if two players A and B are playing tennis, you either bet for A to win or against A to win. I think I am missing something from what you are trying to get at.

In the first few months, I lost a lot of money, because I was still in the process of learning, today, can have a very good balance and on average make $ 500 a week ...

Great going there. Any specific learnings from the initial  loss that you can share?

[BrenoGarcia]

I don't think I get it. Actually I thought you always bet for or against a decision. For example, if two players A and B are playing tennis, you either bet for A to win or against A to win. I think I am missing something from what you are trying to get at.
Great going there. Any specific learnings from the initial  loss that you can share?

Exactly, in tennis is different, because we can only have two outcomes, one or the other.


Betting for or against shall remain valid for sports where we have 3 different results, team win "A" team victory "B" or tie. If I bet "against" 'A', I get if I give a tie or 'B' win. If I bet 'for' from 'A', only get if 'A' win. That's the idea. I recommend you to see video on youtube about Betfair, trading betting, betting for and against ...


I'll post some pictures of my results

[BrenoGarcia]

Bet on the Brazilian championship match between Fluminense and Corinthians. Bet against Fluminense, it is a weak club, full of embezzlement and bad phase. The Corinthians is currently the best team in Brazil, so it was not difficult to know that Fluminense would have little chance of winning this match. The result was a tie[attachimg=1]

[BrenoGarcia]

For me, the strategy is to always bet that I can recover in a short-term (maximum 30 days). The majority of my losses, I recover the same day, others take 2 to 3 days. The secrets is to maximize your earnings, have a balance between wins and losses.


I recommend that you look at this site([size=78%]http://www.apostaganha.pt/prognosticos-activos/[/size])[/size][size=78%], it contains predictions on matches that will happen. It is very interessate to understand how you should think about when going to place a bet[/size]

[Number Six]

What is baloney to you? That gambling winnings in the UK are tax free? That there are professional sports bettors, or that there are systems that exists which have stood up to rigorous back testing and yield a positive EV for years and years? People agree on that, and the maths supports it. There are probably hundreds of professional betfair traders, maybe thousands, and it's important to understand that these people bet against each other, not the house, therefore in most cases the odds are very favourable. Before you start disgorging bilge about quantum mechanics, multiverses and strange worlds at the Earth's core and at the top of giant beanstalks, bear in mind it is possible to predict with fair accuracy, even without a system, the outcomes of football matches. There is so much capital involved, with a reasonable risk, that the probability of ruin (though it exists), is a mere blip that allows for a huge degree of confidence not available in any other activity. There are some betfair trades available called scalping, which is a form of arbitrage, that allow for profits to be made on an trade regardless of the outcome.

[Number Six]

Not a single one has satisfactorily answered my specific statistically related questions about what it is that they claim to do.

The age old question abounds: Why would they tell you? I suspect you think they are full of it since they dodge your questions. Most probably are, there are several threads on this and other boards that would testify to that. Betfair charges fees on transactions of course, but that doesn't mean the odds still aren't much more favourable than a bookies. It also commissions the use of "official" software for scalping trades. You can watch video demos of any of them and see with your very own eyes how the concept works. Not that it's as simple as abc. For the record my initial posts weren't anything to do with arbitrage, but betting systems that produce an accurate degree of probability through statistics. There are a number of methods this can be done, they are documented online in various places. Don't ask me where, I am not willing to find them for you. 

[Bayes]

Second, 5% bet size to BR is ludicrous. 

I've done simulations on various staking plans for sports betting and 5% came in 2nd after kelly betting. This is 5% of your bank (whatever that is at the time), so it's proportional betting. Hit a losing run, and you're staking less.


It's a perfectly good staking plan if you have an edge, even a modest one. It beats all the raise-after-a-loss plans hands down.

[Number Six]

Personally I have no problem with the term baloney, or other such forms of rebuke.

But I am not sure if there is a purposeful conflict of interests going on, whether it's simply argumentative or otherwise. For example proportional betting with a +EV is entirely logical and the most effective method of growing an investment. There's really no argument against that case.

[Dragoner]

It doesn't matter how many times in a row you lose. Only the overall result matters.
At 5% even money bets a loss is BR*0.95 and a win is BR*1.05.
Your total result at even money bets is BR*0.95^nl*1.05^nw. Where nl is the number of losses, and nw is the number of wins. The order is irrelevant. Sure if it is 15 losses in a row it really does lose more than half of your current BR (which can be already much more than double your starting BR), but you have just as much or even more chance (at a +EV game with even money bets) to win 15 in a row.
If nl=nw then you lose, but with +EV and even money nw is expected to be greater than nl. With these numbers you break even around 0.513 win rate. Higher win rate gives you exponential growth. And again... the order of wins and losses is irrelevant.


PS. I might not answer to your further comments because I don't like your attitude. You might consider this to be my problem and not yours. It doesn't really matter.

[Bayes]

No, gambling is not an established, mainstream profession. 

So what? it doesn't mean you can't make money at it, and it doesn't necessarily have to be full-time. Don't you do that yourself? you certainly drop enough hints that you're successful.

The internet is a very poor place to seek out actual expertise.  Not so much because the experts are loath to present their material for the above reasons - many do - but because the average reader doesn't come moderately equipped and willing to properly comprehend and discuss the work.

By that logic, a public library or University is also a "very poor place to seek out actual expertise"; a pretty grim assessment!
Learning anything takes effort and motivation, but whether any individual has it or not has no bearing on the source of that knowledge or expertise. More than at any time in the past, the "average" reader has an opportunity to learn from the experts, and to suggest otherwise is simply absurd.

Wikipedia is not a site of experts.

Wikipedia compares favourably, in terms of reliability, with other sources of information such as Encyclopaedia Brittannica. See here and here.

Some old guy with $200,000 "to his name" loses fifteen bets in-a-row some day.  It's likely happening somewhere while I write this. That's happened to myself more than a few times over thirty years of gambling.  He starts his bets at 10,000 a crack, and drops that by a full 5% of the $10,000 on each.  I'm being overly liberal to approximate this. Now he's loses very close to half his life's savings.  It's a long way back, baby! Losing half of your BR means that then you will have to double up just to get back to where you were, here at the downsized bets.  And, if it happens again anytime soon, you're "dead to the world". Think about it.  Never give away that much control.

Not sure what point you're trying to make here. So what if you lose 15 bets in a row some day? Any serious speculator should have researched all this and know what losing runs he can expect. He should also know that putting all your eggs in one basket is a bad idea, so you should have multiple banks. As I said, I've done some sims on 5% proportional staking with 1:1 odds and a small edge of 2% or so. The results were excellent, I might even post them later.

[Bayes]

Sample of 1000 bets using the 5% plan. In none of sims was the starting bank of 1000 units ever lost, although it got down to 200 or so a couple of times.


[attachimg=1]

[Bayes]

There are some betfair trades available called scalping, which is a form of arbitrage, that allow for profits to be made on an trade regardless of the outcome.

IMO, there is too much made of this as an advantage in using Betfair. You can find a lot of sites that promote trading as some kind of holy grail, and yes, it is possible to lock in profits so that you win whatever the outcome, but the movement of the odds is just as probabilistic as the eventual outcome of the match/race. In other words, IF you can predict which way the odds are likely to move, then you can lock in profits, just as IF you can predict the winner, you will make a profit. But of course, you have to make the right decision in the first place, and picking the correct movement is no more guaranteed than picking the winner.


Trading on odds movement is no more advantageous than trading stocks, or Forex, where there is no "winner". But having said that, it does give you more opportunities for hedging.