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[Drazen]

[attach=1][attach=2]Hello

I can humbly say that you officially got one more professional bettor here 

I can say that I found pretty nice edge in sports betting.

I ll show you some of my stats in the attach. Those stats are recorded on one Croatian web site which is made just for sports betting and I am using it to record my picks. I didn't found better software for this purpose.

I know you don't understand much words, but I think the ones in the right box under "STATISTIKA" (means: stats) which are actually telling you all are self explanatory.

These stats are since I started to play for real money, but I was playing virtually before, for practice of course. So I actually played much more then that number of picks you see there.

So as you see after 107 played picks (which is for sports betting decent sample) my yield is 24.17% which I think it would bring fight for gold on Olympic games in sports betting. LoL With such healthy yield you can reasonably assume that I don't have long losing streaks and no big DD-s. You can prove that to yourself by looking at graph which is also in the attach.

All recorded picks here are shown as staked 10/10 meaning played flat bet although in practice I am using labby as a progression to boost my profits.  I have more then doubled my starting bank by now without almost any stress at all.

I am playing only main asian handicaps on asian bookies (and one English bookmaker) which in the end results with 1.96 as average played odd and average odd I am winning is 1.97. End of stats.

I didn't abandoned playing roulette, I still play it (successfully) as my 2nd hobby with lower stakes, but knowing that out there exist places where you can gamble successfully without fear of being banned, can change your priorities and wishes... Although if you ask me now, I would tell you that I still love roulette more then sports betting, but when it is time to speak about ways of "safer" and "easier" making money, it is obviously what should come at first place. (No hard feelings devils game..  )


Drazen

[Sputnik]

 
Nice D ...

Cheers

[monaco]

Well done Drazen   I'm pleased for you mate 

Looking at your picks though, how are you choosing a game like Boreham Wood v Havant & Waterlooville??

I like & follow football a lot, but I'd find it hard to get much info on a game like that!

Are you using a tipping site(s)?

However you're doing it, long may it continue for you 

[Drazen]

Hello mon ami

No. Not single pick is taken from some other tipster out there. All picks are taken just by my analyze and my decision. I was taking others tipsters picks before, but I found the way how to be even better from good most of them  And now I am confident with the way I analyze and take my picks.

I think that what I will tell you is a bit different from everything you have heard about good sports picking, but in the end I am sure you will agree it is nothing but perfect so beloved common sense 

As in any gambling activity 9 out of 10 people who bet will lose. That is also why all the bookmakers can make good money and survive in the business for so long. As long as we can think and analyze differently from the public, we are good to go.

As for my tips picking, I try to think from the viewpoint of the bookie. I am more concentrated in structure of odds then in collecting some informations about the teams  who are playing

I always go "against the flow" and against public bets. I am not saying that the bookmaker knows who will win, or the games are fixed, but be in no doubt that bookmaker has their own analytical system, and I believe they very often actually give greater chance for underrepresented odd . So I think they structure their odds to entice punters to bet on what they think is wrong. We have to be wary.

So in general I like to bet against good form and bet on bad form but not any time I see good or bad form, it depends how odds are set... I like to use asian handicap as a comparison, because if for example Hull loses to Tottenham by only one goal, when the line expects them to lose by two, for me that is still a "good" performance. I observe, track and note asian lines with a bit of looking at the table position.

As for what i mentioned earlier, I am sorry if I was not too clear, I cannot calculate the exact asian handicap that I think the match should be. I just do an estimation, from recent form and table position, who I feel the favourite should be. And if the odds offered by bookmaker is too good to be true, often it IS too good to be true.

Of course I am not always right, no method is foolproof, but I think the strike rate is quite high.

To be profitable, we must not think like regular gamblers!

But we also need proper MM to survive bad spells. Having said that , I hope I can continue to make money this weekend 

Hope this helps

Drazen

[Agesta1]

Hi Drazan!
Thank you for sharing.
I will give you an example on that i Think you do when you pick a game, i would be very happy if you could
verify if i have understood your "system" right.

ex Todays game between Walsall-Wolves in leage one most of the tipsters Think that wolves will win for a odds around 2.0, i have seen  a Asien hcp for walsell AH+1 for a odds around 1.70
they are not that bad if you lock for the Close statistic.
If i pick this i will go against most of the betters.
Is it something like this you Think of when you pick games.

Thanks again!
Agesta

[Drazen]

I don't know where did you found such generous odds for Walsall. As I see it now odds for Walsall +1 are 1.38

I won't play this match although forms are quite opposite as you noticed.

But take a look at this. Leeds plays against Bolton at home.  They have quite good form and they are better positioned then Bolton, but handicap on them is -0.25. It is very generous, you only lose half if it draws. Many will take this option but I will bet against them.

Lets see how this pans out.

Cheers

[Drazen]

Anyone followed Bolton? Just maybe?

I don't have intention to post my bets here anymore but one more example as one more of the scenarios I am observing.

Austria Viena - Grodig

Austra didn't cleared their last 5 handicaps which signals bad form. They are playing against Grodig, team one place above them on the table.

Bookie set +0.75 on Grodig

Hm.. Does it seem fair to play on away team especialy when home team is in such bad form and even if they lose by one goal you won't lose your full stake?

I think it is time for Austria to clear this line. Well maybe not as Bolton did their today, but still...

Cheers

[Drazen]

Leeds-Bolton: 1-5

Austria V. - Grodig: 2-0

If you were lucky enough to buy the ticket(s) on time here, I hope you enjoyed the show(s).

Best of luck to all

Drazen