08 Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service

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Offline Sputnik

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Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service

I have a gambling bankroll for Casino games with amounts at different online casinos.
Now I pull out 500 Euro to put into Sports Betting.

I pay 19 Euro for one Tipster with 112% ROI each month.
Now I been active for five days and are plus 140 Euro.
Placing 10 Euro bets flat betting and risking 2% of the bankroll.
That is 50 Units.

Now Koetsch simulated 50/50 without edge for 60.000 placed bets.
He simulated 100 placed bets sessions.

The worst drawdown during 600 x 100 placed bets sessions was minus 34 units.
And the average loss during 100 placed bets session was minus 8 units.

That means I have a pretty good chance to make 1000 Euro risking 2% of the bankroll ( 50 Units).
So when I reach 750 Euro I will start flat betting 15 Euro until I reach my goal.

After that I not sure what to do - I have three options.

1) I can bet the recommendation 1% of bankroll with 1000 Euro flat betting 10 Euro.
2) I can continue risking 2% of bankroll and bet 20 Euro flat betting.
3) I can regress and play with the sportsbooks own money without risking my own.

Option two feel tempting to reach maybe 2000 Euro
Option three feel like a stable small income with no risks involved, where you can boost a % to make the bankroll slowly grow and pull out money each year as return on investment.
Option one feels like a long term strategy where you slowly grow your bankroll with small risk.

Cheers Patrik


 


Offline audionut

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Re: Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2019, 02:22:08 pm »
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  • Hi Sputnik...

    My suggestion? Drop the tout...you really don't need them... betting moneyline with odds of -150 or greater gives you a 10% edge...then use one of your famous progressions to handle losses...you may have losing days but you'll NEVER have a losing month!!!  :cheer:

    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service
    « Reply #2 on: June 14, 2019, 02:23:29 pm »
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  • audionot - I understand your point of view - but this is a pure investment instead of the stock market.

    I took 500 Euro from my bankroll for casino gambling and invest them into sports betting service - marketbeaters dot se -
    Now I gamble with my money and bet 2% of my bankroll - 10 Euro flat betting - the recommendation is 1% of bankroll and that would be 10 Euro flat betting with 1000 Euro.

    I buy two tipsters with an edge - Daniel 112% ROI and Inside 110% ROI - together they place around 200 bets for two months period and I can expect 560 Euro or more in pure profits.
    The stock market doesn't even get close to those numbers.

    Markeatbeaters has a spreadsheet with 7500 placed bets and 107% ROI - compare that to any other service that doesn't show you there stats.
    This is a great opportunity for those who have a Europen time zone.

    Cheers