08 Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service

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Offline Sputnik

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Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service

I have a gambling bankroll for Casino games with amounts at different online casinos.
Now I pull out 500 Euro to put into Sports Betting.

I pay 19 Euro for one Tipster with 112% ROI each month.
Now I been active for five days and are plus 140 Euro.
Placing 10 Euro bets flat betting and risking 2% of the bankroll.
That is 50 Units.

Now Koetsch simulated 50/50 without edge for 60.000 placed bets.
He simulated 100 placed bets sessions.

The worst drawdown during 600 x 100 placed bets sessions was minus 34 units.
And the average loss during 100 placed bets session was minus 8 units.

That means I have a pretty good chance to make 1000 Euro risking 2% of the bankroll ( 50 Units).
So when I reach 750 Euro I will start flat betting 15 Euro until I reach my goal.

After that I not sure what to do - I have three options.

1) I can bet the recommendation 1% of bankroll with 1000 Euro flat betting 10 Euro.
2) I can continue risking 2% of bankroll and bet 20 Euro flat betting.
3) I can regress and play with the sportsbooks own money without risking my own.

Option two feel tempting to reach maybe 2000 Euro
Option three feel like a stable small income with no risks involved, where you can boost a % to make the bankroll slowly grow and pull out money each year as return on investment.
Option one feels like a long term strategy where you slowly grow your bankroll with small risk.

Cheers Patrik


 


Offline audionut

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Re: Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2019, 02:22:08 pm »
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  • Hi Sputnik...

    My suggestion? Drop the tout...you really don't need them... betting moneyline with odds of -150 or greater gives you a 10% edge...then use one of your famous progressions to handle losses...you may have losing days but you'll NEVER have a losing month!!!  :cheer:

    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service
    « Reply #2 on: June 14, 2019, 02:23:29 pm »
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  • audionot - I understand your point of view - but this is a pure investment instead of the stock market.

    I took 500 Euro from my bankroll for casino gambling and invest them into sports betting service - marketbeaters dot se -
    Now I gamble with my money and bet 2% of my bankroll - 10 Euro flat betting - the recommendation is 1% of bankroll and that would be 10 Euro flat betting with 1000 Euro.

    I buy two tipsters with an edge - Daniel 112% ROI and Inside 110% ROI - together they place around 200 bets for two months period and I can expect 560 Euro or more in pure profits.
    The stock market doesn't even get close to those numbers.

    Markeatbeaters has a spreadsheet with 7500 placed bets and 107% ROI - compare that to any other service that doesn't show you there stats.
    This is a great opportunity for those who have a Europen time zone.

    Cheers


    Offline JakekeKe9

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    Re: Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service
    « Reply #3 on: July 26, 2020, 12:17:20 pm »
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  • I know nothing about risks. I am a gambler and I play everything related to it. I play poker, blackjack, slots, roulette and I like to bet as well. I know many people which are waiting for big tournaments to own some money, but I bet every time when I know that there is going to be a game. Usually I bet on soccer. The best method to make money is to bet on express. Besides that, it is important to know almost everything about this sport, moreover about teams and their players, in order to know what is going to happen next.