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Testing some runs using negative progressions.

Started by Ralph, January 30, 2013, 11:45:07 AM

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Ralph

If we bet on one street and add a chip every spin, we wait for the street to become frequent and stop at the new high. With a larger bankroll this should end profitable on a NZ wheel. The problem is every NO zero wheel has a narrow bet spread. The casinos has protected the bank with lower max bet on NZ.


On a zero wheel it is not fair odds, which make such a play more unsafe. It must not only become hits on the streets it must come to compensate for the HE too. So we can allready say it can lose the biggest bankroll.  The spread is 1 to 15000 on the zero wheel. If needed we can use the straight up to go to 35000 units a bet.


I will try some play, I will stretch it over days as I have some busy other things to do. The target of the test at BV (fun) is to win 100000 units and risk what I have on the account (1.8 million units).


Screenshots will come!

Ralph

I do not stop on new high, I will try to get at least three hits in a shorter period, as after new high and a sleeping street, it may not be profitable stop at a new high of a few.


I have done 159 spins, and is 2712 plus.


It is hardly 0.01 bets as most of the bet is a bit more. The start is 0.01 and it is what I add.

Ralph

380 more spins, one deep drawndown, but some nice hits made it back. Restarted only twice.
If it sleeps, and then start hitting, the winnings will be quite good. Can probably go scary,if we not have awareness of losing it all as a possible outcome.



12474 plus.


Total: 15186



Ralph

We are at 628 spins and it was no larger drawdown.


Total plus is: 16961





Ralph

1066 spins  20001 units plus.  Progression may sometimes be a bit slow, which not always recover a drowndown in a cycle hitting, which make the sessions long.

Ralph


I adjusted the progression to somewhat more aggressive, as a hit sometimes never seems to catch up.
This was anyhow not down more than the previous, which had problem catching up.


1426 spins and  25255 units a quarter of the way to 100000 units.

Ralph

This run was expected to come at least once  in the test. It was only three hits on the street in 266 spins, one of them very early given the balance 33 plus. I continue the progressions to near 200 steps, and the drown down was about 80000 units. The two hits at the end gave a good plus. I were from start aware of this, and as it come late in the test, it was not near to be any danger for the bankroll, 50000 under start.  We see if that had been worse, as it can, we can lose.


It do not need to come two close hits after a long sleep, but it is that we relay of.



New plus is 40258.   1738 spins done.



Bayes

Ralph, when you first started playing on BV, how much did you put into the account?

Just wondering whether you started with a HUGE bankroll.

Ralph

Quote from: Bayes on January 31, 2013, 08:25:57 AM
Ralph, when you first started playing on BV, how much did you put into the account?

Just wondering whether you started with a HUGE bankroll.


First time 200 Euro, which ended with a withdraw of 1000 Euro. I was using Neteller and they hold my money (BV paid) for three years without any valid reasons. At last I got them when the Euro was 30% down to the SEK.



I started using 3000 Euro second time using another moneyservice. That time I was ready to lose it to 75% chance, and play aggressive. I got very god winning streaks and went up dramatically. Now I play more carefully as I know I can lose it back.


I use to play 0.01 to be able to wait for the winning streaks, sometimes the bets can go up to a few Euro and even 20 Euro in long sessions.  I have had deep drawdowns, but most of the time not too scary, if it starts with winnings a down of 10000 units may be close to the starting bankroll.


The play has gone well, but we never know, a few loss in a row can take quite a bit. It can probably not for all time be possible to stay ahead against the odds, may be long enough. I have to play real silly to loseit all back, it may come a day I have better quit playing.

Bayes

Interesting. This was always playing the no-zero wheel? Your results have certainly given the RNG bashers pause for thought.

Ralph

Quote from: Bayes on January 31, 2013, 10:12:26 AM
Interesting. This was always playing the no-zero wheel? Your results have certainly given the RNG bashers pause for thought.


I got my best winnings on NZ, at that time the 10% tax was at withdraw the money, then they change it so I am not sure the NZ is better. The lowest is 5 times and the highest is lower than Zero wheel.  The risk of table limit is much larger at NZ. The main thing is to avoid a bust, when using progressions, and I sometimes think we are not better off hesitate to go until win or bust. So I want to have as many units as possible, that's's why I start low units.

Ralph

This progressions went far, I had some winnings before, but pressed it and got a long losing streak, ended whith two hits close to eatch other.


1965 spins.  Plus is  55731. Drawndown at most 30000.

Ralph

This has all of a a RFH the progression went very high just two hits in very  a long sequence. I got down under the starting bankroll with 100000 units, the same as the target for this session.  I did not reset after the first hit, I was near to break even. I took the chance to make a bigger win, as I expect it should hit again soon, and it did.


The net become double than planned.


Result is 231737 units.  We can hardly say I played 0.01 this session, but it was 0.01 which is the units in the very long progression, which could end and bust first at a bet of  35000 units and about  1200000 in loss.


The highest bet was 23300 units, as I did not reset after a win with small plus/minus.


Would I do the same in real mode?  Yes if I had beforehand decided to risk that amount, I have probably not done that decision, if we are large on plus, in the total game, we want to stand there.

Bally6354

Quote from: Ralph on January 31, 2013, 12:41:23 PM

The highest bet was 23300 units

Well fair play to you Ralph!

You can't win it if you don't put it down.

I have learned a lot from reading your posts.

cheers  :thumbsup:
Sometimes it is the people who no one imagines anything of who do the things that no one can imagine.