All

Since I have four computers and one open, I decided to do a test on a system.  At this point I cannot name or describe the system.  It is only part mine and the fellow who "owns" the other part will not part with it. 

Here are the first week's results.  I am using the "Outside D'Alembert" with the ExcelBot.  I either win ten nickels or I lose ten nickels.  Each win lowers the bet, the bankroll and the loss limit.  Each loss raises all three.  Example:  My bet is 3, my bankroll is 30 and my stop loss is 30.  I go up three on a loss and down three on a win.  For four or five, just change the "3" to whatever you wish.

My goal is to test the limits of this idea over a month or so or until I give up on it.  If I win 1,000 fake Euro, not nickels, I will go for real money.  I must see where the draw downs take me and decide if I would REALLY go there!!  Would I be down 200 Euro and continue?  That's the question.

The ExcelBot is the perfect testing tool.  Whether I win or not, the bot is excellent.  Only my sheet will determine the outcome.

If you look at my sheet you will see I am up 137 Fake Euro.  That's 2,740 units since units are nickels.  Most of this is NOT due to reducing the bet to level 1, but due to the "Hiccup Effect" as I have named it.  I'll explain that again if anyone wants.

So here we go.  Win, lose or get drunk---you will know the truth!

Samster

Sam.  Very nice.  Two questions if I may.  What is cut-off? And what is hicup effect. 

Pockets

"Cut off" means Bet Voyager or something cut me off and I had to re-start the bot.  I just continue on from where I was.

The "Hiccup" effect is when you are using a D'Alembert and you go up and win and down and lose many times in a row.  Here is the way it shakes out.  (Bet 1 and lose.  Bet 2 and win) (Bet 1 and lose.  Bet 2 and win) (Bet 1 and lose.  Bet 2 and win).  Each one of those bets within the parenthesis will net you one unit.  So for this little batch of hiccups, you would gain 3 units and still be at level 1 in your progression.

The D'Alembert merely says if you lose, go up one unit and if you win that bet, go down one unit.

Sam

Thanks for the time Sam.

Just had a question to ask you.

When would you think one should consider they are deep into the hole when playing D'alembert?

Is it between 15th and 20th level?

The reason I ask is I am seeing that the recovery is very slow when we get higher and higher the progression level.
As per the hiccup effect if we are at level 1 and 2, then every lose and win bet we gain 1, which will reset any losses quickly.
But if we are at level 9 and 10, every winning bet is giving  as 1 unit, but a losing bet takes 10 times of that win.
This is why I wanted to know from your experience till when would you consider safe to continue on the D'alembert steps.

Other question that I had was, have you ever considered a percentage increase instead of a fixed 1 unit increase and decrease.
For example, after a losing bet we increase 25% of the unit size.
So, if am playing 1$ units, if I lose my next bet would be 1.25$, I  lose this, my next bet is 1.6$ and so on.

Quote from: Pockets on October 24, 2013, 10:47:42 AM
Other question that I had was, have you ever considered a percentage increase instead of a fixed 1 unit increase and decrease. For example, after a losing bet we increase 25% of the unit size. So, if am playing 1$ units, if I lose my next bet would be 1.25$, I  lose this, my next bet is 1.6$ and so on.

This is the way to go 

Short demonstration in the attach shows power of this.

When I represented this some time ago to our dear GreatGrampa, he gave very interesting answer.

"Great Drazen. Yes, % based increments is the way to go. During my days at Cammegh, after testing over millions and millions of spins we figured out that 25% is the optimum number that will provide you wins on a consistent basis in ECs. That number goes down to 12% for dozens and columns. But playing 25% will require you to keep 20 times the lowest unit instead of 10 times as you are doing now. So even 20% is alright... "

Cheers

Drazen

Very nice Drazen. Do you have experience in playing it? How do you think it adds up? Do you just go on increasing or do you have any reset points. What is the worst drawdown you faced if you play this.

I know lots of questions. But I am keen to understand how this performs as I have never read such progression anywhere.

For me it works just fine.

I do increase, but at certain points I stop and use higher chip to make up the losses.

I would like to keep that points for myself, but that actually depends on the bet slection of each to discover.

Practice, practice, practice 

Drazen

Pockets

The "Hiccup Effect" pays the same whether you're at level 1-2 or at 10-11 or wherever.

I set the bot like this:  I am at .05.  I either win .50 or I lose .50.  That is my first bet.  If I lose, then my D'Alembert cannot go very high.  Maybe 5?  I've never checked it out.  But say I lose.  I then set the bot for "Basebet = 2"  Now I am shooting for the same win, but double the bet and win/loss ratio.  Still my D' can't go very high or the bot will cut off and go to "Basebet = 3"

It may not be the best way in the world to bet; the 25% surely could be better.  If GG and Drazen recommend it, I'm sure it is.  But the bot won't do that.  I asked Stef for a D'Alembert and I got one.

Lastly, if your bet goes too high, I feel the selection process is poor.

We shall see.  Right now the thing is in a downturn.  I'll have to see where the bankroll is.

Sam

QuoteI have never read such progression anywhere

Because anything rigid will eventually break!

Quotebut that actually depends on the bet slection of each to discover.

Practice, practice, practice

Personally I still don't have a set BS, but the practice, practice, practice is a perfect explanation, forget strict BS and totally (can't stress this enough) totally forget a regimental progression, they do not work every time you hit the game, never have and IMO never will, YOU need to decide when to up the chips depending on what you see happening at any given point in the game.

Starting a new recording method, not a new test.

Sam


PDF1 came out ok but PDF2 hmmm....you know how hard it is to flip my screen. Kinda brings to mind the joke about the secretary ... uses liquid paper ( white out ) on her screen to correct her documents.




B

Thanks, Buff One

No idea how that happened.  Too much Oolong tea??

Sam

This test is going very well........at present!!  I rarely go to a $30 unit mini-bank.  I am up almost 400 play unit.  600 to go...

Hello

At the present time, I am up 655 units on this test.  All is going very, very well.  Perhaps too well.

In the last 60 trots, I have not gone above 3 in the progression.  In the entire test 6 is the highest I've gone and only twice.  You can't imagine how good that is.  At this time my bankroll would need to be 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 = 210 Euro at a .10 bet.  I can do that!!

As far as I'm concerned, this will be a definitive test of whether BV is fair or not.  I have notes on every trot.  There is no reason why I should see a marked difference when I start to play for real money.

Is the Cafe empty??  Am I talking to the walls??

TwoCat

i think you will note the difference when you start real...good luck