I want to bring something out about W's and L's posted on gambling forums and boards on the internet.  W's and L's are common and as a standard of the forum posting field, more likely than not, the author will not tell you how those W's came about.  I mean, how he chooses the wager that won the bet. 

IMO, I have found countless authors will run hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands of hands with 1 or 2 scheduled wagers are being applied.  They will accumulate downswings or clumps of losses before their scheduled wagering equals out or they get a few units ahead. Eventually they will stop their session on paper and show a +5, +10, +20 unit profit, etc. They repeatedly do this.

Such as:  W-W-L-L-W-L-W-W-L-L-L-L-L-L-W-W-L-W-L-L-W-W-L-L-L-L-W-L-W-L-L-W-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-W-W-W-L-L-W-W-L-L-L-W-L-L-L-W-L-W-W-W-W-L-L-L-W-L-L-L-L-L-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-L-L- W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-L-L-W-L-W-L-W-W-W-W-W-W-L-W-W-W-W-L-L-W-W-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-L-L-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-L-W-L-L-W-W-W-W

?.and their W's and L's will continue and continue for hundreds of hands. They play and play and play running their continuous stream on W?s and L?s.  At points risking 24 or 30 lost units, which in reality at a real B&M casino would be into thousands and thousands of dollars. Personally have no idea if they are continuously wagering on the Banker and hoping and waiting on the presentments of Bankers to get ahead than the Players side.  Of course on paper, they can easily carry this on for 5 or 10 shoes and running down, say 40 or 50 units.  But in person with their real cash at risk in a B&M casino, they offer no proof that they actually do any of this. 

I have seen situations where picking any side, Banker or Player or any situation, Chop-Chop or Second Line or wagering only after 2 or 4 repeats in a row, etc., etc., or a host of dozens of other possibilities, etc., would all prevail for a very limited amount of wins and then followed by every other thing except what the gambler was trying for.  Lost units would amount into the tens of thousands easily at $25.00 to $150.00 a hand, realistically low wagering at most all casinos.

Regardless, run a group of 20 shoes and continually wager something on them, then run another group of shoes and continuously wager that same thing on that group. Then run another group and another group.  You will get ahead; you will get behind and possibly exactly even several times. But, it is a risk of your bankroll and buy-ins that are so far against you to gain profits and be able to really make something out of the game; it is on the verge of being ludicrous.   

Here is a quote that someone on BetSelection has said to me and about me. "@Alrelax, Idiotic hyper progressions look rewarding but are fatal. Actually, progressions work in direct proportion to chance of losing all. You win pretty fast with it until you lose back all. Take classic martingale for that manner, it wins one unit easily till it gives back all in just one bad stretch. Casino would love to see a player using marty. He ensures the slowest win and the fastest loss."  My response.  Well, if the gambler wagers it with common sense, use an advantage Money Management Method for himself, etc., he will be able to put those wins away and use a certain portion of those progressive wins to maintain his win status and keep profiting.  When his win status falls off, if that gambler continues to follow his Money Management Method, he will cash out and take a nice profit. 

However, point being if the gambler is going to continue his wagering, whether flat, every third hand, every Banker or Player, every chop or every second line only, every 4th or 5th wager coming up after the first 3 or 4 or repeating Bs or Ps, etc., the gambler will certainly give it all back, EACH AND EVERY TIME, no matter what.  I have witnessed just that countless times at every B&M casino I have ever played at.

Two short examples of what I have read on the internet.  One author claims to risk 60 units with his wagering plan to make a few units.  Well, 60 units at an extremely low bet mount of $25.00 is $1,500.00.  Risking $1,500.00 (Plus) to maybe profit $75.00 or $100.00?  Another author boast on 300 units is his (almost max) drawdown, whatever almost means, and say it was at $25.00, that would total to be $7,500.00 and if it was at $50.00, the total at risk would have to be $15,000.00. 

With no guarantee, no written assurance, and the possibility that the entire bankroll can disappear, to me that only complicates the matter of frustration, aggravation and generally adds to----just getting sucked in. 

Quote from: alrelax on May 20, 2020, 08:55:13 PM


Here is a quote that someone on BetSelection has said to me and about me. "@Alrelax, Idiotic hyper progressions look rewarding but are fatal. Actually, progressions work in direct proportion to chance of losing all. You win pretty fast with it until you lose back all. Take classic martingale for that manner, it wins one unit easily till it gives back all in just one bad stretch. Casino would love to see a player using marty. He ensures the slowest win and the fastest loss."  My response.  Well, if the gambler wagers it with common sense, use an advantage Money Management Method for himself, etc., he will be able to put those wins away and use a certain portion of those progressive wins to maintain his win status and keep profiting.  When his win status falls off, if that gambler continues to follow his Money Management Method, he will cash out and take a nice profit. 



Two short examples of what I have read on the internet.  One author claims to risk 60 units with his wagering plan to make a few units.  Well, 60 units at an extremely low bet mount of $25.00 is $1,500.00.  Risking $1,500.00 (Plus) to maybe profit $75.00 or $100.00?  Another author boast on 300 units is his (almost max) drawdown, whatever almost means, and say it was at $25.00, that would total to be $7,500.00 and if it was at $50.00, the total at risk would have to be $15,000.00.

With no guarantee, no written assurance, and the possibility that the entire bankroll can disappear, to me that only complicates the matter of frustration, aggravation and generally adds to----just getting sucked in.

        The sentences in red are mine. All classic progressions are meant to plunder players only and they can handle only a particular style and limit of variance. If you cross that limit ever, you will lose so much that is irrecoverable.
         Regarding my MM, it doesn't lose when you get 30 successive losses nor does it lose huge when we get unseen 60/200 in an EC bet. In an average session of 100 bets, it is expected to win 20 units averagely. The loss of -300(my ultimate surrender point) is something that even 5 SD below the mean sessions could not fetch for me so far and as rare as once in 100k trials. I m not boasting anything. It is result of my decade long research that too with help of esteemed programmers.
            Randomness is the only trouble with any sort of gambling. I have tried to bypass the worst probabilities and by and large been successful too. I still can not cover 100% of losses but can surely win more and lose less, in the long run despite the house edge and randomness. I can prove this, if required. Still working to find if I can better my approach.

You clearly misunderstand and/or misinterpret my Money Management Method along with its positive progressions and parlay wagers. 

I have done very well with exactly those since I began allowing those things to govern my sessions and play. 

Quote from: alrelax on May 21, 2020, 09:57:43 PM
You clearly misunderstand and/or misinterpret my Money Management Method along with its positive progressions and parlay wagers. 

I have done very well with exactly those since I began allowing those things to govern my sessions and play.

I haven't said a word about your MM, rather I got it now that you do positive progressions and parlays etc. I only answered statements purportedly said by myself and I stand by that.

              Since we started to discuss MMs and specially positive progressions, I know a few positive progressions:
1. Reverse Martingale or its slightly different versions as parlay betting
2. Reverse Labouchere or reverse fibonacci
3. Oscar's Grind.
              These presuppose a nice streak or clump of wins to fetch a net profit. We all know that they keep coming too.
Let's take a case of 3 step reverse martingale or a straight parlay where we ride upon a win thrice.
We start with 1 unit bet, if we win, we have 2 units, we wager 2 units in the second bet and if successful we have 4 units now, in the third bet, we bet 4 units and we get a total of 8 units wherein only 1 unit is our own money and we got a whopping 7 units net win. Eureka.
              but wait. It is not as good as it may sound. When we do it realistically over and over like anything we face exactly same issues as with any other positive or negative progression. Yes, my dear its variance. A three step WWW that should come every 8th trial averagely may take as long as 100 trials in one stretch or even more. Similarly, it may go south for hundreds of trials with average sliding to 1/16 or even worse averagely for too long. Unless one is very lucky, winning a net profit with positive progression is as much tricky as with a negative progression. Long run simulations or long run play experience will confirm the same. Any classic negative or positive progression doesn't win on its own. Had it been so easy, the game would have ended a few hundred years ago.