We take for granted events will happen as well as events not happening.

And both cost us money, all of us. I was at the casino the other night. Bought in at nearly the end of a shoe, few hands left. Won a few and lost a few. Ready for a new shoe. Shuffle, cut and burn. Shoe began.

Shoe starts, Natural 9 player. So I thought here comes the player dominating in the beginning once again. I bet Banker and lost the first hand. Then a double Banker came and won both. Stayed Banker for the 4th hand, but a strong player came and it was a Banker with a seven and player had zero for its first two cards. Third card for the player was an eight. So floor is quiet and it's just myself and one other player.  Floor person is well-known and talkative. Gives out max comps plus. Comes over and says, look easy game 1-2-1-2. Now lost two and won two. Slightly ahead, since I parlayed second Banker and cut it back for the third Banker that didn't appear.

So we are sitting at the 5th hand coming and wagered Banker, I won. 6th hand wagered banker and won again. Floorman said again, look easy game, 1-2-1-2.

I wanted to wholeheartedly follow that but something inside of me said not to. Why? I don't know.

Granted, anything can happen, pattern/trend or otherwise. But I preach, when it is there to follow it when it's not, don't attempt to change it. 

Also no ties. My 0-1-2-3 no or low ties, was also present, big time. Which to me defines itself as, repetitive presentments and clumping, no matter how winning hands are grouped, etc.  The 3 tangible items present are the following:

1)  Beginning of the shoe;

2)  No ties;

3)  Pattern/Trend clearly present.

So we are sitting on the 7th hand coming:

P-BB-P-BB
 
Won four, lost two. Sitting with a slight profit, very slight from the two wins. I stay for Banker and once again the player comes through with a natural.

P-BB-P-BB-P

I actually wanted to wager on the second player but did not. Once again I wagered banker. And banker won. Wagered again banker and banker won again for another third set of doubles. Such a darn perfect 1-2-1-2-1-2.

Same thing, floorman says easy game 1-2-1-2. Dealer looks at me and she says, 'Glen this is not you'. I'm sitting with three losses, my wins have three of them wiped out. I should have had an easy six wins with only two losses the way I was looking at it. Which would have been the 1st hand and the 4th hand as a loss. I failed to fall into an easy groove is what simply happened. 

Now I continue but go light on banker. Another huge mistake!  Win the next two hands.  So we are sitting at the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB

Lose the 10th hand as after the two bankers a perfect player wins once again. The hand was player had 1 and bankers had a two face cards.  Players third card was a 7 and bankers draw was only an Ace.  So now I am sitting there with 10 hands out.

Lost 4 Players
Won 4 Bankers
Net 2 wins and just a over even

I should have had six parlayed wins, not one doubt. Not one problem. But I fought it and tried to change it, big time.

Not over yet!  Read on. Two more bankers appear, both strong valued wins.  One was a natural and the other one reduced players to a zero and bankers took the easy win.  Now we are sitting at hand 13 coming up looking like the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BB

Once again I strongly desired player, but stayed with Banker. Didn't parlay at all. In fact I reduced my bet a little bit. Player had a 4 and banker had a 5. Luckily Player drew a nine and banker won the hand. Was not a huge win but a win nonetheless. I stayed, didn't parlay and I couldn't believe what I was actually doing and how I was actually wagering. Player had a 7 and banker had a natural win. So now we are sitting at the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BBBB

Sitting with 4 losses
Sitting with 10 wins reduced by 4
Net 6 wins

Please Note:  My win was not what it should have been by any means.  Which were positive progressions with a minimum of parlayed amounts, if not greater. 

Now I parlay for the 5th Banker. But a player wins. And with each hand coming I wagered for a subsequent Banker to reappear and I lost the 16th, the 17th, and the 18th hands.  Perfect matching side by side, 4 players right next to the 4 bankers. 

So now we are sitting with the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BBBB-PPPP

The emotions and the frustrations are inside of myself. Yes, again something else I write about and I know extremely well. But what I am experiencing was my failure to just follow a simple pattern/trend, that was perfect, solid and could have been extremely profitable.

To me, I lost a sure and extremely easy $10,000 plus. I allowed numerous things to take over my wagering decision making. Among those were:

*  Ego
*  Emotions/Frustrations
*  Wagering for what I desired

After the 4 players won parallel to the 4 Bankers, a single banker won. Which was followed by a winning player without a second banker for the first time.

Nothing can be changed. But you can sure follow winning presentments with a handsome positive and energetic motivated play the way I look at it.

The shoe fizzled after the 20th hand with a combination of chop, 1s and 3s, ties and nothing in my book that could be followed or even wagered against with success more than winning 1 and losing several, type of results.

Thx for TR(session report). The bad along with the good.

"...Please Note:  My win was not what it should have been by any means.  Which were positive progressions with a minimum of parlayed amounts, if not greater. ..."



When I finish a shoe or a multi-shoe session and look back. I often find the reason I didn't win a net+ isn't always because of a subpar hit rate (guessed more wrong vs right). It was because I didn't win the amount I should have on the winning steaks, or winning shoes. It was that one or two key presses that missed and would have returned a significant profit vs Now Im drawn down even further.

As players we often beat ourselves up for the losing (or subpar) sessions and pat ourselves on the back for the winning sessions when both types of sessions boiled down to just one or two key decisions. A skilled player will win just slightly more than 50% of these key-decision hands (at least for me Im not out there consistently winning 25/30 consec decisions,...etc).

One more reason Im an advocate for a prospro. I'm losing less when I'm missing and significantly more when I guess that key-decision correct. Sometimes on my winning sessions I actually guessed more incorrect but won 3-4 consecutive presses that overwhelmed the subpar guess rate.
This bust or boom approach isn't for everyone, but I feel in the long run most would make a greater NET.

IMO the "bust" is only dangerous if one depends on the "boom"..


Thx again for the TR (& for always reporting the neg as well as the pos).


Continued Success,

You said, "......at least for me Im not out there consistently winning 25/30 consec decisions,...etc."

I agree, but this was a perfect presentment of a simple balanced and valued pattern/trend. 

I went against my beliefs and every good wagering decision making placement I can think of. 

Not necessarily a boom or bust technique, but a strong 15-17 wagers with positive progressions on top of winning parlays that i normally would have played but for some strange reason didn't see it 100% at the time, had told to me in a way, and when I did bet—-I wagered otherwise or cut the amount of the wager way down. 

Nice report.
We all have fallen in such of a mistake.
 
Btw, I hate when dealers or, worse, floormen try to forecast hands especially when don't asked.
I wouldn't 'trust' nobody not having the same financial involvement we players get while betting this or that.

as.