Turning Points

(NOTE:  Turning Points coincide with Sections.  Without Sections, Turing Points are worthless for the most part, without Turning Points, Sections are worthless for the most part as well.)

There are two ways to assist in determining where a Turning Point should be.  One, is by a definitive amount of hands played out; And two, is by the values of the hands being played out in each hands total.

1)   There will be at least 2, but usually 3 or 4 Turning Points per shoe, coinciding with the 3-4 or 5 Sections.  You cannot get the Sections and the Turning Points confused or fail to recognize them.  They will both exist and always be there in each and every single shoe.   

The definitive amount of hands will be somewhere from 15 to 25 per Section separated thereafter by a Turning Point.  The Turning Point is not defined by what we wish, desire or need to be presented in order to match up to your schedule of wagers we set according to anything.  Turning Points are to be set by the shoe's presentments.     

2)   The more complicated part and as well, subjective to one's interpretation, are the values of the hands being played out.  To me, as well as many others that I regularly play baccarat with, are the hand values.  Determining hand values and how those can and will identify a section within a Section, also known as clumping, will usually present itself, somewhere within the highest majority of most shoes.  You must be alert, conscious of what it is, looking for it, neutral and the many other things I have identified and written about that will lend advantages to you in the recognition of just that. 

Above all else, you must not attempt to change the shoe presentments and wager according to a pre-scheduled mechanical and thought out chain of event you wish to happen.  That will only produce false-positives that will lead you down a path you wish you never entered.  Realizing values of the presented hands are essential to capitalizing on the advantage that will allow you to literally, "Pounce on It". 

I am not going down the road of math, statistics or scientific probability of computer generated, long term testing or research results, etc., or anything of the like.  If you believe in those, STOP reading now and move on.  We do not see eye-to-eye or anything that will allow us to interface and learn from each other.  Reason being, anyone into math, statistics, or scientific probability measured in percentages can justify just about anything outside of the casino and away from actual play.  The long term simply does not matter/apply to a random game where a person is only playing a few shoes, even 10 shoes or so, even 15.  All the math and all the stats apply far less than 50% of the time with the amount of shoes or hands a player will sit in front of for a session.  If you are neutral and open minded and desiring to gain an advantage in baccarat, read on, comment, implement and discuss.

Either P or B, or both, can clump within a Section.  A great advantage to a person wagering is being able to get on the right side or the right events within any Section with some strong positive progression or parlay wagering.  For example the shoe below had a strong Section 2 as well as a strong Section 1.  Sections 3 and 4 would be the harder ones for myself to play.  After Sections 1 and 2, myself--I was done with the shoe and cashed out. 

3rd Card continuous additions or reductions in hand value.  Pay attention because this is what more clumping and more streaks or chop-chop or any other section of events with consistency is made up from.   

As an example I will post a shoe from the other night at the casino.  4 Sections with 3 Turning Points.  The first clump came at the beginning of the 2nd Section. 


P
B-B
P
B
P
B-B
P                                      (Section 1)
B-B
P-P
B
P-P
B
P
B
______________________________________________________________________________

P-P-T-T-P-P-P-P-P-P
B-B-B-B                                     (Section 2)
P-P-P
B-B
P
______________________________________________________________________________

B-B-T
P-P
B
P-P                                             (Section 3)
B
P-T-P-P-P
B
P-P-T
______________________________________________________________________________

B
P
B-B
P
B-B
P                                       (Section 4)
B
P
B
P
B-B
P-T-P-P-T
***************************************************************************

FINAL:
Banker=30
Player=39
Ties=7
Panda 8s=2
Fortune 7s=3
3 Card 8/9s=1

TOTAL COUNTS BY SECTIONS:
Section 1=Player 9, Banker 10
Section 2=Player 21, Banker 16
Section 3=Player 31, Banker 21
Section 4=Player 39, Banker 30

Please refer to the + - 10/+ - 20 Count I have detailed in other threads.  This sticks more than almost anything other consistent happening throughout the shoe, IMO, experience and witnessing over the years.
This particular shoe finished with a Player +9.  Use the + or - as one guideline, coupled with others that are presenting themselves, will allow you to gain a certain advantage and be there when something develops on the correct side.  Rather than joining most everyone with the verbal astonishment's and open mouth disbelief's as for example, how the Players side can present 12 straight Players with 5 naturals, and the other 7 Player wins having a 3rd card bring the Players side total to either 8 or 9 nearly every time. 

Turning Point #1 placed between hands 19 and 20 because of the following.  1) The number of hands.  2) Player began to dominate as realized by the two natural ties and the 3rd Player presented.  3) Nothing strong appearing in first Section.  4)  Player continuously winning for 3 hands straight with surviving the cut of 2 Natural Ties.
 
Turing Point #2 placed between hands 39 and 40 because of the following. 1)

Turning Point #3 placed between hands 57 and 58 because of the following. 1)

Comments for Section 1:

Comments for Section 2:  Player/Banker tie natural 8/8 hand 22. Player/Natural tie 9/9 hand 23.  Hand 24 Play increases to a 2 card 9 over Banker 2 card 7.  Hand 25 Player increases to 3 card 8 over Banker total of 0. 

Comments for Section 3:

Comments for Section 4:

So if a typical shoe has 3 to 4 sections.   We're not looking to play every section of every shoe, correct?   Looking for one good section, maybe two?   Using this method, our hit rate on our bet attempts should be much higher, compared to the hit rate while attempting to play a whole shoe.

Everyone has their own style.  After many years of play, I find it easier to concentrate and easier to win larger, when only concentrating/focusing on one or two Sections.  Problems arise thou.  Such as patience, will power, wagering quickly or out of sync and having the frame of mind/intense desire to recoup your lost funds quickly.

Of course if you are not there when the best of the best Sections happen, or the best shoes, or easier than other shoes to win, etc., appear---then you can not win. 

With that said, personally playing an entire shoe from start to finish or the majority of it, is complicated and hard to survive for most.  Unless you are winning and really cut back and wager near table min until something comes along that you can identify and capitalize on extremely well.

All, IMO of course.

This is a good narrative for most who wants to win. A good description of the background of the game. It is difficult to do it precisely as you go along especially when you are also betting. Glen has done it with much effort, and with some adjustments in retrospect, I would think.

Anyway, the analysis of each shoe into sections is one thing. Each section will appeal to different types of players. A dragon player may make a killing a n one section. A chop chop guy in another section while a random player in yet another section. Point to be made is, like Glen pointed out, do you have the patience to wait for the section that suits your personality profile? Such sections sometimes don't happen. There are a few, very few, who have the flexibility to be able to bend to the wind and don't break. Able to see each different section of games are at play and capitalize on it

Anyway, good piece. Keep the articles coming Glen.

Quote from: Lungyeh on July 07, 2019, 06:53:39 AM
This is a good narrative for most who wants to win. A good description of the background of the game. It is difficult to do it precisely as you go along especially when you are also betting. Glen has done it with much effort, and with some adjustments in retrospect, I would think.

Anyway, the analysis of each shoe into sections is one thing. Each section will appeal to different types of players. A dragon player may make a killing a n one section. A chop chop guy in another section while a random player in yet another section. Point to be made is, like Glen pointed out, do you have the patience to wait for the section that suits your personality profile? Such sections sometimes don't happen. There are a few, very few, who have the flexibility to be able to bend to the wind and don't break. Able to see each different section of games are at play and capitalize on it

Anyway, good piece. Keep the articles coming Glen.

"A good description of the background of the game. It is difficult to do it precisely as you go along especially when you are also betting."  Yes, correct.  Without an understanding of the game itself, meaning; What it can produce and what it may not produce, as well as--how dangerous it is to follow what just won for yourself, all will add to your disadvantage of wagering and winning. I have said it elsewhere, you cannot really win (at least larger amounts) without experiencing losing and negative events produced by the game itself, the people playing it as well as yourself.  As well, as I have pointed out and you have said here, extremely hard as you go along especially when you are betting.  Extremely I wish to empathize. 

"Anyway, the analysis of each shoe into sections is one thing. Each section will appeal to different types of players. A dragon player may make a killing a n one section. A chop chop guy in another section while a random player in yet another section."  I have defined my game with Sections & Turning Points.  I have posted in the past about this.  At times, I realize through comments from members/X-members such as Jimske with extreme criticism and humiliation, that I have failed to explain and proffer in clear detail.  My response:  It is difficult to address the subject of intangible happenings in a random game with the clarity and definiteness as one can do running theory, testing, computer modules and also columns of results with armchair quarterbacking to point out, justify and state with some kind of math or statistical results or even scientific probability results in percentages as to what will happen over a period of shoes.  The problem with all of that is, not that the results are not accurate or truthful, those results may or may not come up within the small amount of shoes you will play at a casino.  Hence, those results are worthless unless they are common sense results to the most basic questions, etc. 

I have discovered numerous things that will give a player an advantage if he can follow them, control himself and apply the physiological things I have written about in relationship to control, cashing wins out, money management method adherence, your own levels & plateaus, and a few other things. 

And what you said regarding the Sections and identification of them is correct.  We all play differently and we all see different things in the presentments.  I am outlining something that has assisted myself in a huge way and allows me to recognize certain types of events.  I shy away from 1s and 2s but not much else.  1s and 2s on a consistent basis will kill most players with their buy ins and bank rolls. 

"Point to be made is, like Glen pointed out, do you have the patience to wait for the section that suits your personality profile? Such sections sometimes don't happen."  EXACTLY!  100%!  I point this out for examples.  Remain neutral, remain patient, remain with a clear frame-of-mind, remain with complete consciousness of what you need to wager, win and walk away with complete knowledge and alertness.  It is not easy as Lungyeh said.  Absolutely correct, "Such sections sometimes don't happen"!  But when they do, pounce on it with positive progressions and parlays and pull down each and every win amount and lock up each one, etc. 

Additional info.

FYI, please add the following into the subject of Sections & Turning Points, as I have discussed them.

I am basing the following figures off of a very common $25.00/Min to $5,000.00 table in the Midwest rather than a common $100/Min to $10,000.00 table in Atlantic City or Vegas.  Yes  there are higher limits with usually higher mins, such as a $300/$500 Min. with a $25,000.00 Max off the street limit without front money table, etc., but I am stating what I see every week at a $25.00/$5,000.00 table.  Limits are employed for reasons to assure casinos players cannot guarantee themselves a comeback and a win, even with larger bank rolls and buy-ins.   

I do not subscribe the the fallacy and the long term haunting karma of, "Beating The Casino" or "Beating The Shoe".  A win is a win and replenishes my buy-in first and then my bankroll where the buy-in came from as first priorities before locking up the excess, etc.  How long I play a session depends on numerous things, too many to list out and situations/sessions produce varying things.  I do risk my buy-in most times and if I cannot win I seldom buy-in a second time for that session/trip.  If I win, my money management method is kicked in.  If I am up and down without really winning anything substantial or barley getting over my buy-in with continued wins, I might call it a session based upon what is happening, etc.   

Most players look to "Beat The Shoe" and "Turn The Lights Out" on the casino.  Both dangerous and both produces false positive thoughts, IMO.  Of course I love to win.  But losses go along with those very same winning sessions.  I do not grind as many say and label their own way of playing.  I do not subscribe to a daily or a session grind with a limited Stop Loss or a limited Stop Win.  I risk my buy-in.  For those of you that have followed my writing here on this board, know that.  For those new members that have not, I detest the limited Stop Loss and a limited Stop Win for numerous reasons.  But most of all, I risk my buy-in funds and try my best to strictly adhere to my Money Management Method I have outlined. 

I look to play along with the shoe, rather than against it or needing it to match up to my wager for me to win.  I am referring to things such as anti streak wagering, whereas a player would wait for a 3-4 or 5 repeating B or P win to place a wager for the opposite side cut to happen.  Yes, over the long run there are all kinds of mathematics, statistics and percentages greater than 50% with various forms of scientific and math probability factors that will support wagering for the opposite side cut to present itself next after 3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 hands, etc., and so on.  However, say you wager for the cut after a 3 repeating B or P is presented.  Your wager is $200.00.  The Banker produces 3 Banker wins straight and you place $200.00 on the Players side.  A 4th Banker appears.  Then you move to $400.00 on your next wager and a fifth Banker appears.  Then you move to $800.00 and a sixth Banker appears.  You are now into your attempt to win $200.00 with $1,400.00 out of your buy-in lost.  Now you have to wager $1,600.00 to continue on your path you started to recoup your lost $1,400.00 and win $200.00.  The dilemma you put yourself into was, counting on the shoe to adhere to long term statistical results of less than 100% to hold accurate for your wagering.  You are actually wagering for the shoe to meet what you desire rather than yourself attempting to wager with the shoe. 

Yes, the shoe might cut to the opposite side 10 times straight on the 4th, 5th, 6th repeating hand for the following hand.  And you capitalize on that particular wager one unit, say $200.00 for ten times, $2,000.00.  However, what about the 4 or 5 or 6 times it will not and the repeating side continues to repeat?  You lose all of your winnings for all of those times.  How deep and how far do you dive into the attempt to recoup, win or break even?  Most people will answer that very same question with an innocent and believable, "Oh, I will employ a 3 or 4 attempt stop loss" or something to that effect.  but with a negative progression as I outlined, will certainly and extremely quickly add up to sizable amounts.  Thus, wiping out wins and buy-ins and bank rolls.  So you won $200.00, 10 or even 20 times?  So what.  What about the 5 or 6 times out of say 15 or 16 times you employed that, that you lost?  What about the one time you went 8 or 9 progressions deep, etc.?  So, back to the 4th attempt we are at above with your $1,400.00 lost so far on 3 failed cut attempts to complete an anti streak wager because of statistical results so it will rather than continuing a repeating streak. The next wager would be $1,600.00 and you are now risking $3,000.00 for the recouping attempt and winning $200.00.  If lost, you will then be into your attempt with $3,000.00 lost and the question arises, about the next wager of $3,200.00 with the risk factor of $6,200.00.  If you lose the 5th wager of $3,200.00 the next would have to be $6,400.00 with a risk factor of $12,600.00.  Table limits come to question as well.  Maybe you can play two spots, some casino allow this, most do not.  Maybe you are at a larger table limit property but then the $25.00 min most likely would be $50.00 or at least $100.00 and your max still will limit you to 5 or 6 attempts, etc. 

Even if you wait for the 6th repeating win and wager on the 7th one.  It is common for  7-8-9-10 and even 11 times for a repeating B or P to repeat itself.  Yes, before the onslaught of chastising comes here, I am very well aware of the statistical odds gaining huge amounts of percentages on the next hand to cut when there are continued repeating wins after hand 5 on any side.  But the streaks happen and happen all the time.  They are not rare by any means.  And streaks or playing anti streaks or anything of the likes can and do, wipe out buy ins and bank rolls every day of the week.  That is my point here. 

Or, maybe you switched up during the attempt to be correct on the cut and you went with the streaking side and then it cut, etc.  Does not matter.  Same results.  Which is a loss of your wager. 

Other types of scheduled wagering also apply and really no different than the above example to wager for anti streaking.  And yes, eventually with a large enough bank roll and/or buy-in available (dependent upon table limits), you can recoup your lost funds and win one unit if not more.  But most, safely to say the highest amount of players do not have those funds available or are willing to risk those funds for such a trivial return, or one of numerous other reasons. 

And please, do not misunderstand what I am saying.  I am also for the cut at varying times.  I do not just wager on streaks by any means.  I do not limit myself or plan on any standard scheduled type of wager to bet on based upon anything.  If you limit yourself to Banker or Player, or Cuts, or Repeats, or Chop, or doubles, or 1s and 2s or any other type of events, you will grind yourself down and ultimately lose.  If not within a session, within a period of time.  Sections & Turning Points will show the neutral, conscious, clear thinking player what is happening as it is happening.  But it is still up to that player to determine what to wager on.  Of utmost importance is the psychological influences imposed upon the player and his ability to not let those influence him (which is extremely difficult) and apply his knowledge, experience and money management method to his wagering, etc.

Turning Points & Sections are NOT after the event or shoe.  They are during the event, during the presentments, each is only a hand or two, possibly three behind being drafted and established.  You are fooling yourself if you assume otherwise. 

So much to read Glen. 😎. Thanks for taking the trouble. I just want to add to the digestible material.

Those who have been to the various online sites would be familiar with some system betting parlance.

FTL is Follow The Last decision.

So if the last winning outcome is Banker, bet Banker.

Then there is the OTL for Opposite The Last decision.

So if the last winning outcome is Banker, bet Player.

Now I have a new definition for FTL and OTL.

FTL is Follow The Lucky-one.

Meaning you follow the guy who has been winning his bets.

OTL is Opposite The Luckless-one

There may be a guy who is losing his pants off. But seems to have endless supply of money. Keep losing but keep changing cash for chips. This may be the uglier method and probably a more cruel approach that allows one to be schadenfreude about it. OTL asks you to bet Banker if that guy bets  Player.

I never do the OTL but do favour FTL