Quote from: KungFuBac on May 27, 2023, 03:27:06 AMIndividual random events are, by definition, unpredictable,

I look at it this way. They are unpredictable but at times they are coincidental.

Hi Gizmotron--hope all is well.

Your statement: "They are unpredictable but at times they are coincidental."

Can you elaborate on that.
I view the word coincidental meaning in this context as: (results from chance despite being very unlikely,...etc) Do you mean something different?




Continued Success,

KFB:

IMO this is key: Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable[

Or my preferred way of saying that last sentence:
"but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is SLIGHTLY MORE predictable VS RANDOMLY GUESSING[ "

Excellent.

Then if some 'complex' events display an EV+ attitude even better...

as.

alrelax in original post of this thread:

"*...  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)..."

In Baccarat this sentence is so true: The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result.

As players we should look at wagers and think "is this a good-value buy(GVB)". If it is a GVB for that shoe in that spot then place the wager and not look back(Ok to always be evaluating our choices. However, we may still NOT win many of our Good-Value Bets).

Nor should we expect to win in a dominating ratio(e.g., win 8/11 or say 16/20 bets). It is a victory if we can only manage winning 6/11 placed wagers. 11/21 placed wagers,...etc). Its this same "tightness" in the great game of Bac that also makes it difficult to lose 8/11 or 16/20 placed wagers.
This is a good thing.

When one limits their bet placement to a good,better,best choice and selectively only choosing perceived "best" spots we will see our overall results as winning slightly more correct vs incorrect.
In other words always ask ourselves just before bet placemeent: Is this a good-value bet. We should be able to state WHY we are placing this bet right now. What makes it better than random.

We should be able to silently say in our minds eye: Im betting B or P because of: _________, or because of ___________ and _____________, or because of _________, _________, and _________ just occurred...etc.

I find it helpful to keep meticulous records and notes for review (re: bet selection) and what I was thinking before placing that bet(Win or lose). Often, I look back at a losing shoe and find very few if any wagers that I would have placed differently. Usually, my losing shoes will have my side losing 2-3 extra hands to atypical outcomes or abnormal series of events' continuance. However, I know across several shoes of only placing perceived "good-value" bets I will get the W (meaning +Net $) for the day.


Continued Success,

Randomness is the core of betting or any form of gambling. If it is not purely random and predictable to a large extent the reward on the bet will be lesser. That is true with sports betting but casino gambling is purely random and chance to win is directly proportional to the risk involved.
        Randomness ensures that all silly money management ideas will fail eventually. Randomness makes all skills of choosing your bet go foolish finally.
          Randomness is not infinite though. It mellows usually around 6X of the break even point and crosses that very rarely. Although there is no absolute limit of randomness, it can go wild enough to kill a novice guy with irreversible loss. 

   In nutshell, no randomness, no gambling.

Quote from: KungFuBac on May 27, 2023, 08:52:54 PMCan you elaborate on that.
I view the word coincidental meaning in this context as: (results from chance despite being very unlikely,...etc) Do you mean something different?

I never waste my time considering the odds of a perfect storm of conditions resulting in the situation being optimal for exploitation. When a card counter in Blackjack sees the opportunity they attack.  The trick in that game is to not get busted for card counting. But when you see a perfect trend or perfect pattern reoccurring you just hit it. Now it does not matter if it's a long shot on the odds. Are you going to grab the bag of gold? Or are you going to sit there, miss the opportunity, and wonder why you passed up on the chance. What you really want to do is to figure out what there is to gain by winning a long shot once in a while compared to missing every one and still just grinding away with a few ups and downs. Everything adds up. You must take the gravy once in a while in order to be able to take the chances in the first place. Playing against randomness is all about winning in the aggregate. I'm just rambling on here. I'm always ready to attack the opportunities. The grind tends to take care of itself.

Good Morning Gizmotron /thanks for your reply.

Gizmotron: "... missing every one and still just grinding away with a few ups and downs. Everything adds up. You must take the gravy once in a while in order to be able to take the chances in the first place. Playing against randomness is all about winning in the aggregate.  ..."

I agree.

I view gambling at Bac as similar in some ways to fishing. There is a reason we call the art of casting a line into the water "fishing" and not "Catching".

A skilled fisherman doesn't just go anywhere into the ocean and start randomly casting their line in all directions and hope a fish finally sees the bait(and the fish also wants that bait and strikes at that bait).

A skilled fisherman may look at the weather conditions(In the past has fishing been productive in weather like this)?
In the past have the fish liked this particular bait better vs typical bait?
In the past have fish struck at my bait in this section of the ocean vs typical days?
What depth have fish in the past seemed to strike at my bait vs typical day?
In the past have fish seemed to strike at my bait at this time of day vs other times of day?.

...etc.

The more experienced the fisherman the more tools in the tackle box. Some days very few tools(lures--bait) will work.

Some days the fishing is great and we should fish all day and all night or until they quit biting.

Some days the fish simply are not biting. It is a great option to know we do not have to use all our bait and fish all day.


Continued Success

QuoteI tried to draw attention to this all the way back in the Gambler's Glen days. I called it the effectiveness states. It is the ability to ignore the biases. It's one thing to see a trend or a pattern. It's another to know if it is in a coincidental phase of working temporaraly or not. Knowing is everything.

Thanks again Mark.  Using this reply for a BUMP.  Your still around in my thoughts.  Thanks, Glen.

I liked the posts from the great Gizmo. Does anybody know what happened to him?? 
I never played with him but play with an elder Bac fellow that played roulette with him et als in Gizmos' circle of roulette aficionados.


This is one of Gizmos statements from the above or other thread:

Gizmotron: "... missing every one and still just grinding away with a few ups and downs. Everything adds up. You must take the gravy once in a while in order to be able to take the chances in the first place. Playing against randomness is all about winning in the aggregate.  ..."


Continued Success,