Bayes said this:

QuoteRegarding diversification, it's just a fancy way of saying "don't put all your eggs in one basket". A  simple example in roulette which FLAT posted would be to bet 3 units on an even chance. There are lots of ways of doing it, but instead of putting 3 units on red,  you would put one unit on each of 3 sixlines, the first being the "coldest", the second the "hottest", and the 3rd "average". The variance is reduced compared to betting only on red, even though the return is the same.

maybe I am not reading the implications correctly? This is a discovery of major proportions if kept as stable. To win the variance is a way to earn money with progressions although not having more than normal game wins.

This should be discussed thoroughly.

Quoteyou would put one unit on each of 3 sixlines, the first being the "coldest", the second the "hottest", and the 3rd "average".

How do you determine which line is what?
How many spins you have to chart/track before you know which lines to bet?
Why to be constrained to lines exclusively when you could bet the top, bottom and middle to corners, streets, splits and numbers too, or even a combination from all.

Bayes has been one of the most intelligent and rational guy arounds forum and I have heard lesser irrational things from him than anybody else. What he is suggesting is to put 3 units as 1 on the coldest doublestreet, 1 on hottest doublestreet and 1 on average. There are lots of trouble deciding them. At times, there will be two hottest or coldest or average doublestreets together. So, it is easier said than done. There can be cleaner parameters like farthest hitting  line, the latest hitting line and one in the median leaving the last line i.e. 3rd in nearness. That can be played with decisive pick.
                                    All these won't seriously help in any manner, in my humble opinion. I have worked on these for pretty long time and found that no way of picking bet is superior by itself than all others. It is impossible. Hence, although it could be interesting to pick three doublestreets instead of RED, it won't matter in short or long run and it can not reduce variance by even an iota. Trying to find a better bet in a purely random game is a joke. We better make strategies to survive the worst cases(whenever they come in our bet) and how to win if there are average wins after a horrible drag.
 

Bet selections fail when they don't represent what exactly happens during the game.

Quote from: Albalaha on September 18, 2017, 06:05:31 AM
Bayes has been one of the most intelligent and rational guy arounds forum and I have heard lesser irrational things from him than anybody else. What he is suggesting is to put 3 units as 1 on the coldest doublestreet, 1 on hottest doublestreet and 1 on average. There are lots of trouble deciding them. At times, there will be two hottest or coldest or average doublestreets together. So, it is easier said than done. There can be cleaner parameters like farthest hitting  line, the latest hitting line and one in the median leaving the last line i.e. 3rd in nearness. That can be played with decisive pick.
                                    All these won't seriously help in any manner, in my humble opinion. I have worked on these for pretty long time and found that no way of picking bet is superior by itself than all others. It is impossible. Hence, although it could be interesting to pick three doublestreets instead of RED, it won't matter in short or long run and it can not reduce variance by even an iota. Trying to find a better bet in a purely random game is a joke. We better make strategies to survive the worst cases(whenever they come in our bet) and how to win if there are average wins after a horrible drag.

Looking at the complex mathematics, that Bayes has produced on this forum, together with being directed
to even more complex mathematics, it appears he is a very competent mathematician. If I was a maths
student, I would of course be thrilled. I don't see how it helps a roulette player.

Any suggestion using hot & cold double streets (presumably lines) or any hot, cold numbers is a non
starter. I mentioned on a previous occasion, the casino's are only too happy to provide such info on
their indicator boards and they would not do that, if they thought it would give a player an advantage.

It is a pity that mathematicians don't spend some of their time on random numbers, rather than for
example their latest amazing discoveries, that there are two types of infinities !!

Quote from: wannawin on March 09, 2015, 02:29:40 AM
Bayes said this:

maybe I am not reading the implications correctly? This is a discovery of major proportions if kept as stable. To win the variance is a way to earn money with progressions although not having more than normal game wins.

This should be discussed thoroughly.

How (or why) is the proposed strategy better than betting on the three most recent unique double streets (six lines) or the three double streets that have appeared the most frequently in, say, the last 12 spins?

I don't back but understand what purpose serves this principle, when the game is more choppy/balanced the coldest six-lines will thrive, when game is streaky/hot the hottest six-lines will dominate and the average/middle will support in both of the cases, whether hot or not.

Despite it seems sensible selection it has a constant weakness, the table/game will be either cold or hot, not both simultaneously, therefore half of the total lines/bets will produce negative and the other half positive results.
Since we won't get more positive than negative there's no long term advantage, you could try it flat and sooner or later you would find out that gradually but steadily will be bogged down.

That's how I consider it, take it or leave it.

Quote from: Bayesyou would put one unit on each of 3 sixlines, the first being the "coldest", the second the "hottest", and the 3rd "average".

Would it be okay for the procedure to be:

- Coldest is always the furthest back.

- Hottest is considered looking back using 6-spin batches, excluding zeroes, picking the one with the most hits.

- Warm / Average would be the DS appearing exactly 1 time for the most consecutive cycles.

Well placed thought but...
Why choosing to bet sixlines?

Sixlines are numbers practically grouped on the layout without any relationship on what a strict physical process produces.

If we think that a half wheel betting selection will come out in handy more often than not (in terms of possible variance reduction) we better choose straight up numbers.

A new EC could include the 6 hottest, 6 coldest and 6 close to average probability numbers (or 19 numbers taken as a perfect 50/50 EC on double zero wheels) but we know that such state will change continuosly.
To get a sort of variance reduction we need that the probability that warm numbers will suddendly become hot is quite low or restricted within acceptable terms.

as.










 



 

     

 

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on October 09, 2017, 11:19:12 PM
Well placed thought but...
Why choosing to bet sixlines?

any analysis on any group of 6 numbers is the same. the layout is there for convenience0. nothing else

Quote from: VLS on October 09, 2017, 10:13:48 PM
- Coldest is always the furthest back.
- Hottest is considered looking back using 6-spin batches, excluding zeroes, picking the one with the most hits.
- Warm / Average would be the DS appearing exactly 1 time for the most consecutive cycles.

a valid way of approaching the system in the absence of clarification by the author.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on October 02, 2017, 11:28:13 AMSince we won't get more positive than negative there's no long term advantage, you could try it flat and sooner or later you would find out that gradually but steadily will be bogged down.

That's how I consider it, take it or leave it.

the possible advantage is to use a progression that covers the variance. please see  bold quote: "The variance is reduced compared to betting only on red". it would be the winning hit of the century.

Bayes suggestion could be an interesting way to play but it can not be the best as nothing is better or worse permanently. It is as random as it could be. The warmest could go choppy or cold when you start to bet that and vice versa.

Quote from: wannawin on October 10, 2017, 06:45:32 AM

the possible advantage is to use a progression that covers the variance. please see  bold quote: "The variance is reduced compared to betting only on red". it would be the winning hit of the century.

You told me that any 6 numbers group analsys is the same no matter how the numbers are taken, so it's difficult to accept the idea that "warm, hot, cold, ap" attributes could help us for a possible variance reduction.

I fear it can't be the winning hit of the century, this topic was deeply studied several years ago by one of the best roulette researchers, Charles Van Bockstaele.

as.