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Topic: MARKET REPORT  (Read 38292 times)

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Offline XXVV

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Re: MARKET REPORT
« Reply #30 on: November 10, 2015, 07:03:51 pm »
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  • www.aljazeera.com

    Inside the US Federal Reserve   next broadcast  6am GMT  Wednesday November 11

    R


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #31 on: November 12, 2015, 11:15:28 pm »
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  • Well here we are. It is a Public Holiday today in Christchurch and the luxury of 'free time' and more sleep in the morning. However what can you do when New York opens at 3.30am local NZ time and closes at 10am, and all that goes between those gates? That is why I am often alert 2-3 hours in the middle of the night here, and that has other benefits because it is very quiet.

    With a 250 point loss on the DJI this morning and six losses in seven days, tomorrow may bring a small bounce. For Investors a nightmare, and for Traders daily opportunities.

    Retail is really struggling in the US and you wonder over the Department Store models when faced with internet retail options. Well    AB did $14 Billion yesterday online. Yes Billion. As it is 'singles day' over there in China and wily Jack Ma, the retired teacher, and the wealthiest man in China, plans ahead in 5,10,15 year steps. He has recently bought extensively in NY state north of New York as he respects the way Americans have maintained the forest and lakes. Well that is what he said when interviewed live yesterday and all the packets, parcels, boxes and envelopes were being sent from his warehouses. He also has bought in Hong Kong where he intends to retire. He comments there could be a few challenging years ahead for China as it ( speedily) adapts to being a consumer society. Meanwhile all the commodity markets dived to at least 6 year lows.

    Macy's offered a 15% discount on share price yesterday if you still believe in the red star in NY. I understand they are modelling to incorporate discount departments within their stores for the future.

    What was staggering this morning was the short sell attack and opportunity on SunEdison from $4.54

    The report indicates a $2 target within 6 months.

    Great to see GSK opening in Singapore to deal with growing markets in Indonesia and Vietnam.

    It is very much 'in the balance' at the moment with Europe going full tilt Q/E and the Fed maybe lifting rates in December. I loved the comment from the NY Floor Trader today after hearing 7 talks from Fed reserve Board Members, summarising that they were talking' from both sides of their mouths'.

    Also the open question ' How do catch a falling unicorn?'

    Can anyone explain why I cannot write AB albalaha and that it instead prints as Albalaha  -  A L I B A B A

    Thanks Al - your legacy - one of the richest humans on the planet?

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #32 on: November 13, 2015, 11:31:10 pm »
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  • Well the Floor Trader was wrong. The Dow fell 200 points again and all seems set for an important Monday. The Head of Wells Fargo investments virtually stated that the best places to invest at present were japan and Europe, not the US markets. It left me today scratching my head and keeping my hands in my pockets. Unsure what to do or rather, sure to do nothing.

    I have been doing some depressing due diligence through links provided and then some youtube footage on banking cartels and corruption in military and drug/ money laundering. Know your enemy is the theme.

    Moving on, it is a phase of study, research and planning ahead. Key is not to be subdued by these realisations, but instead to find ways to balance this out.

    It is a big theme but it may be in the realm of currencies that big changes lie ahead.

    More soon.

    Offline ADulay

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #33 on: November 14, 2015, 04:12:10 am »
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  • Hard to believe that after all this turmoil and crisis and hand wringing that the DJIA is down all of 100 points for the year, even after the last week's bad showing.

    Think big picture.

    AD

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #34 on: November 14, 2015, 06:52:31 am »
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  • Yes indeed. About the only index on the rise was the Volatility Index which has shot up to 40 + over the past 3 days action, after steadily stabilising the past few weeks.

    Yes day to day, hour to hour can just be too small a sample sometimes. Big Picture is a good approach, and several Investors clearly view 2-3 year terms or longer and buy on weakness. Commodities have level bottomed according to some analysts, so that 2016 may see a new growth cycle.

    Will take a fresh look on Tuesday.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #35 on: November 15, 2015, 08:43:56 pm »
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  • I have been doing a lot of background research on currency markets and talk from prominent Economists and Business Journalists over what may unfold in 2016 regarding 'resets'. Refer Nick Giammarino, Willem Middelkoop, www.TheBigResetBlog.com

    As always beware the charlatans and fraudsters, but take note of this Big Picture implication, possibility.

    Such dramatic action can be private as well as public.

    It is wise to have a spread of fundamental technical approaches to reduce the risk exposure of relying on one current market, or one current dominant currency. Insurance can be achieved at little cost.

    I like the idea of investing in currencies that are truly asset backed yet not widely traded, for example Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Irag, Iran and areas in the Middle East that are actually planning re-building and growth, counter to popular perceptions. Refer to recent interviews on CNBC with Oman, Lebanon, even Syria eventually. Obviously risk in such locations has to be factored. However I am pleased to hear of such constructive optimism, even if it is 5-10 year planning cycles.

    Vietnam has attracted a lot of publicity recently and the NZ PM has just been there with a trade delegation. It can be seen as a little cousin of China. Also Indonesia is running superb continuous publicity promoting tourism and investment opportunity.

    To hold some paper currency from these nations costs little.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #36 on: November 17, 2015, 07:44:14 pm »
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  • CNBC has some fine moments, and I particularly enjoy the interviews with international CEOs, and world leaders in banking, finance, international markets, policy makers and diplomats. Where else can you see Warren Buffett interviewed with, in the same hour, President of major Thai bank, interview with Jack Ma of A L I B A B A, Richard Branson, and retired US Ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad ( 2007-2009) on Middle East policy and diplomatic policy.

    The latter interview was one of the most insightful, practical and optimistic views I have witnessed, and of course it reflects the sage advice from the retired Head of the United Nations, Kofi Annan ( see kofiannanfoundation.org). Mr Khalilzad is Afghan born and his faith is Islam. He was appointed by George Bush. His insight and understanding into Islamic splits and his reflection upon the parallel of the reconciliation between Catholics and Protestant in Christian faith shows a level of world view wisdom mostly lacking in mainstream media interviews. This interview was a credit to the anchor journalist, producers, and audience of CNBC.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #37 on: November 20, 2015, 09:22:13 pm »
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  • Well it has been a great week for the US markets while last week was one of the worst ( this year). Volatility Index this week is down from 20 to 14 today and trending down.

    October in the US has been recorded as the highest av temperature on record, which while reflecting on Macy and store results, has much more global implications.

    Amazon continues to streak, and internet and discount store shopping is booming. A L I B A B A  is also streaking and weirdly is at last going to be  incorporated as a genuine Chinese stock ( it was earlier registered in HK and USA only). It is a remaining hope to add value to troubled Yahoo.

    One of the best strategies I heard recommended today ( although timing is a worry hence to take a half position first) is to buy the Canadian Dollar (which like NZ and AUD has retreated 30% this year in relation to USD). And with those Canadian Dollars buy cheap Canadian Energy (oil) stocks for a double leverage. With a Fed hike the USD will probably continue to rise. Has oil bottomed? Well even though in the US there are 1000 rigs less than this time last year, the Saudis and Iranians et al keep producing more and more. So there will be a turn for this aggressive trade strategy and let's review it at end of year and then 12 months hence.

    Star stocks appear to be Nike, Netflix, Alphabet Class A, and this week Apple, and Disney. Reference also Alphabet Google buying into VIP China. Massive potential there.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #38 on: November 22, 2015, 11:18:30 pm »
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  • Add to that list some other currencies, regarding economies of note.  First Ethiopia, although one of the poorest world nations on per capita income is one of the fastest growing economies. Also Myanmar, Thailand, Mongolia.

    Of course what I am interested in is the more effective wealth distribution. Corruption in PNG ruined the advantages that economy had at independence. I ran a very successful business in Port Moresby for ten years soon after Independence Day and one of my clients was the then Prime Minister, Sir Michael Somare who is a truly remarkable and charismatic figure. We left as boom times passed and concentrated instead on Australia and New Zealand where corruption is not a problem.

    So many African nations, and Pacific Island nations suffer from the syndrome of the Chief being the big man in every sense, and a bureacracy that is grossly inefficient. That all sounds like cliche, but sadly is very common.

    The Chinese government has invested very heavily in small Pacific nations and that investment may well be very carefully monitored.

    I will research further into emerging economies but of course with commodity prices relatively low returns are risky and at this stage will need quarterly review.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #39 on: November 23, 2015, 11:15:51 pm »
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  • Big move today is buy for Alcoa ( currently around $9) and for Xerox ( also around $10.60 peaking at 11.0). These are moves by the best market professionals. In fact Xerox moved up 8% after normal trading closed with the move by Carl Icahn.

    Perhaps a signal that commodities are close to a bottom. Certainly however the USD continues to rise as the Market factors in a likely interest rate hike by the Fed.

    Note the move by Pfizer et al to move to Dublin. Purely to save tax.

    One month of Xerox shows steady incline from $9.40 upwards. At ThanksGiving is $10.60

    Alcoa has risen in past 5 days from $8.50 to $9.40 at ThanksGiving.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #40 on: November 26, 2015, 09:15:04 pm »
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  • I love the US tradition of ThanksGiving and incorporate this into my personal priorities and holidays.

    This is a very useful space to pause and reflect before end of year and Q4 completes.

    I have noticed in my personal patterns how I am influenced by what to which I give most attention, and that reflects my priorities and choices, whether good or poor. Quickly behaviour patterns can be formed and routines built when you really like and enjoy these choices.

    Such is the case with the feed from CNBC, and it comes as shock to really take stock to balance influences.

    Thus I suggest and recommend CNBC and the BBC world business reports and wish that was a 24 hour feed in its own right.

    I quite like carefully selected multi screens so enjoy multiple data presentation.

    On a personal note it is important to balance your personal beliefs/ spiritual work with the outer business world. I believe we give too much emphasis to political 'crisis'. Better, is an understanding of diplomacy, diplomatic procedures and finding 'common ground'. It is better for us to work with Unity rather than fragmentation and anxiety/ fear which negatives really harm our well being.
    Too many voices and opinions simple add to a tower of babel confusion which is harmful for mental health both individual and on a larger scale. The sharing of information is a gift and tool and must be handled with care and responsibility.

    Strategic overviews are necessary to inform our decisions and there are brilliant commentators available.

    The fluency and skill of business journalists on CNBC is more than matched by the personality communication and charm skills of CEOs who are frequently appearing on that platform. It is important to be able to see through these facades with careful skill and the best journalists can go some way here. Sadly, at this time, mainstream  CNBC seems to shy away from the controversial or questioning that commentators like Ronnie Moas or Max Keiser can provide. So that is why I use RT.com for Keiser Report but the selected agenda and spin on that channel must be understood and filtered, just as is necessary with Fox news.

    In my travels also really appreciate leads from TheGuardianMoneyDeals accessible through the Guardian website.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #41 on: November 30, 2015, 08:57:05 pm »
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  • Living in New Zealand we exist sometimes it seems ahead of key timelines, as although it is 10 am Tuesday here it is 3pm Monday in New York or even 1pm in Los Angeles. Thus sometimes we can take steps to cover what we are pretty sure might be coming. Particularly so with end of November trading on the Dow today while we are on the road to Christmas here already. But what has come clear is that the US holiday season has expanded way beyond Black Friday and Cyber Monday, really starting the buy season at least several weeks earlier.

    This is reflected in the results for booming Amazon which continues to take business from the bricks and mortar retailers like Macy.

    What was curious today in CNBC data was the note that 30-40% of internet shopping is returned particularly in soft goods, compared to 9% for physical retail stores.

    I notice here one of the smartest retail operators Briscoes enables any store item to be delivered ex internet shopped for $5 flat. This store is notorious for the need for the shopper to time the purchase to coincide with frequent 30-50% discounts, clearly showing huge margins. I suspect the physical shopper always has the edge in collecting these discounts. It is controlled and balanced so these outlets still flourish while the future of shopping malls may well be checked or even restricted ahead. These are international western market trends anyway.

    Blue Nile sells jewellery on the internet with largest individual sale over $1M, and there was mention of Leonardo diCaprio's investment in a diamond culture growing company where within 14 days a diamond is grown.

    Today, at start of week in NY Guggenheim Securities recommended 23 oil stocks as they anticipate Oil at $100 USD in 2018. Halliburton (HAL) is recommended as one of the best picks in this bunch.

    Another trans political trend is recognition of the need to repair/ replace US Infrastructure ( bridges, roads, tunnels) and Ferrovial and Crown Castle are both recommendations.

    After the interview with Goldman Sachs Chief Economist it looks extremely likely that Fed will hike in December and thereafter quarterly which last bit of information is significant as growing divergence between US and Europe/Japan policy toward QE.

    Microsoft at $54.28 today is a recommended buy - second biggest Cloud Company.

    They are counting down to the 14 days for Fed-Mas. Could be the first time in 11 years. It seems this foregone conclusion is already factored into stocks, bonds and currencies. We shall see if there any events that could cause a wobble.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #42 on: December 01, 2015, 12:42:23 am »
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  • Sharemarket Darling in Australia, Blackmores ( health supplements) is up over 400% this year at $135 AUD. The glamorous MD and CEO Christine Holgate is an eloquent and appropriate presenter for this company which is growing into Indonesia and China markets. The stock is up 600% for 12 months. Way to go.

    Buy Japan it seems. With full on QE and the supportive Bank of Japan growth of dividends continues and Wisdom Tree recommends the prospects ahead and the ongoing policies of an enlightened Japanese Government raising minimum wage, assistance for the elderly poor, and encouragement and care for all the elderly in this ageing society. They want to boost fertility, and women have a higher rate of employment there than in USA, despite the notoriously male dominated society. Glass ceilings everywhere.

    Good for the Orchestra Conductor at the World Wrestling Championship in Iran.  He packed up and refused to permit the Orchestra to play when he was advised 15 minutes before performance time that all women had to leave the choir and the orchestra and not be on stage as this contradicted the Iranian cultural protocol at this time. This is where global communications can make a difference, and encourage, but not force, change for the better which in this case means appropriate representation and recognition of talent.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #43 on: December 02, 2015, 12:02:28 am »
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  • Start of the new month on the NYSE.

    Since 1950 December has achieved a positive net outcome 75% of the time.

    Average December monthly gain on Dow has been +1.7%.

    Today it went up 0.5%.

    Great interview in San Francisco with  John Stumpf - Head of Wells Fargo - brilliant charming clear communicator, also well paid- over $18M USD last year.

    Nike - darling of the US Market up over +30% this year.

    Alphabet targeted to reach $1000 for Class A share within 12 months.

    Volatility Index down to 14 again but Manufacturing Index in USA shows that sector is in recession.

    Bright start to the month with record car sales - and no not another subprime they assure us. Of course VW sales have dived _ I am amazed this is not world wide as the cheat program was for diesel vehicles was fitted universally, and produces outrageous emissions yet you do not hear much on this. Review the street pollution windflow patterns  on CBD streets and you would think again.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #44 on: December 03, 2015, 08:02:33 pm »
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  • Much more volatility has returned to US markets, and this is triggered by some stirring events. Two generations of FIFA officials are shown to be corrupt. What we suspected is shown to be factually proven. Gold is fundamentally trending lower. USD has ceased its uptrend in relation to Euro, and this will continue through 2016 according to Chief Forex Adviser from Deutsche Bank factoring in 4 quarterly rate hikes from FedReserve. US suburban shootings with radical overtones add to the mix of more overall risk exposure, and greater volatility. So much trading is now done by computer response to 'word' triggers and media response to such events is heightened that we need to factor in all of this to our strategic overviews. The corruption at the top of Turkish politics is exposed as the President's son is in charge of government entities that actually trade illegal oil from the terrorists in Syria. Rather than bombing that exposes innocents to undue risk, our governments really should do more below the surface and expose corruption and greed to enable solutions that get to the root core of problems, rather than state oversimplified slogans. Perhaps we are entering times when more truth will out because of the ability for us all to communicate and share information. All the more reason to be clear and cool headed and honest in our dealings at all levels.

    We await key data and decisions over the next few weeks. At this stage it is hard to see a usual Santa Rally as lows today really erased a month of gains, and the Big Picture really needs to be seen outside of a lot of static and noise at present. Perhaps the rapid retracements today do offer some short cycle opportunities in really quality stocks such as Google/ Alphabet to the wiser/ cooler heads.

    Recommend the latest Keiser Report and interview that discussed UK politics and economics.

    Beware the lessons of short trading - unlimited losses. Refer to recent articles/ actions by businessinsider.com, risk magazine and ethos.
    The mess the Portugese government and the Greek government has got itself into after being reportedly stitched up by US Bankers. It certainly is Caveat Emptor whether individual or government official, and beware a short position that actually is a bet, and a very unsound one at that. So although I say how fine some financial market trading can be in principle, note that day to day actions and mistakes and naivety can cost millions if on the wrong side of a position. As for 'principles' and 'Europe', tell that to a Wall Street banker who smells blood in the water.

    Reference :

    Risk Magazine

    Ethos Capital Advisers