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Topic: MARKET REPORT  (Read 38293 times)

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Offline XXVV

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Re: MARKET REPORT
« Reply #45 on: December 04, 2015, 09:02:51 pm »
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  • Well yes the Market did respond and a gain today recovering +370 on the DOW. Great opportunities for the short cycle Traders. Maybe the Santa Rally is underway after all. The report in the Norwegian obituary paper was false. A lot of churn.


    Offline Tomla

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #46 on: December 05, 2015, 01:31:30 am »
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  • its the period of "who the hell knows"

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #47 on: December 05, 2015, 02:02:22 am »
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  • Yes in the circumstances, I will 'step aside'.

    Some of my recent research and investigation produces very scary results for those who are on the wrong side of short positions. When that sudden shift by 3 cents in the USD/Euro relation hit the other morning it was a day of total confusion despite the fine rhetoric. Someone can speak for any position. In fact it amazes me, and still dumbfounds me how articulate some commentators and financial journalists 'commentate'.

    I think to be an 'active Trader' in the markets takes nerves of steel and comprehensive knowledge, and talk about short cycles in roulette, the nano second trades here are breathtaking.

    The advice I have received is to let the best professionals do it. A case in point is the Options Trader recommended to me two days ago on the strength of nine years of audited net returns on a managed trading account. Nine years of consecutive profit averaging +104.8% per annum. That is outstanding and enables compounding given a suitable account fund deposit. We looked into worst case draw downs and variance, and I consider that level of performance and management way superior to what I can achieve at my best in roulette evaluating my last 9 years of play. A $15,000 USD deposit sum would have suitably handled the worst volatility cycles in that entire time with satisfactory margin of cover.

    My current theory in roulette is that $25,000 spread in multiple banks might squeak along, but as stated earlier my business strategy now adopted is that in due course when I play like that it will be funding derived already as 'surplus' and hence free money - free of attachment. I prioritise now in terms of degree of variance control.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #48 on: December 08, 2015, 08:55:37 pm »
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  • Observing last two days on NYSE the gains of Friday are wiped and oil prices have tested 6-7 year lows at $36.70. Some suggest high 20's may be also briefly experienced but the figure of approx $60 is seen as a balance in 12-18 months. However this trending seems to reflect a lot of commodity price direction and thus exporters of raw materials are really increasingly in distress, with drastic cuts in staffing.

    Interesting view from Bank of America economist observing possible 'black swan event' in 2016 if Saudi Arabia 'floats' the Riyal ( currently 1 riyal = 0.27 USD). This action in response to general oil surplus production but may have big implications for Brazil, already for Venezuela, and other commodity currencies.

    Distinguished Professor of Economics at Harvard noted in morning interview that US markets are 40-60% over-valued ( using historical data) and are particularly vulnerable to correction in the coming 6-12-18 months.

    As always it is necessary to be aware of all these inter-twining events/ views and maintain big picture view and short term cycles as well. It is very complex and risk/ variance can be managed/ mitigated by dealing through best performing ( audited) professional traders, and spreading a range of markets, locations, types of investment (ETF/equities/currencies/ options) and contract durations. As always it is a strategic essential to take a proportion of profits when available, so as to always re-cover initial exposure as a priority, and 'play with the house money'.

    It is emotional NYSE market behaviour at this time.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #49 on: December 09, 2015, 05:31:48 am »
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  • Gem of the CNBC daily market coverage was the interview and statement by the Mayor of Jerusalem  Nir Barkat in response to what should America do facing terrorism and unrest.

    The calm and balanced statement from the mayor of the City of Peace was a confident statement of Israeli Intelligence ( in every sense and application of the word). The Mayor is a retired Major in the Army, and still youthful at 56 , an ex paratrooper, with a no-nonsense but nevertheless enlightened view of the balance of force, surveillance, intelligence and swift action. As he stated all religions and faiths come together in Jerusalem and co-exist in equilibrium. As he put it after any disruption the City ensures life carries on as quickly and seamlessly as possible, giving no satisfaction to the disruptors.  There are extremists on all sides in Jerusalem, whether Jewish or Moslem faiths. Recall this was where the Christian Crusaders slaughtered their way to power and riches, only to come  to a fiery end as the Knights Templar - Europe's bankers for a time.

    What I am trying to say is that we need to see the bigger context, be aware of history, and be able to make strong constructive decisions from the top based on practical experience, for the greater good, and to have a plan, a vision for the qualities of a society we want. Thus not to be reactive, but proactive.

    If you are running around in fear, confusion and anxiety you will never contribute to civilisation, as always every action will be a re-action. Groups of us need to work together with common goals and interests ( yet with a wide range of values and beliefs) and that is how cities/ societies grow through the dynamics of overcoming challenges, working for unity and not division, working to a plan and being pro-active, using the mind to create what we want, with limitless potential abundance. Why not?

    Likewise with investment, a reactive market is emotional and insecure.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #50 on: December 09, 2015, 09:07:43 pm »
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  • Volatility Index up at near 20 today from 14 earlier this week. Some wild swings and this may be the pattern till the Fed announcement. It seems  Dow Chemicals and DuPont saved us today with big gains ahead of their merger announcement tomorrow. It is talkfest as usual and this was represented beautifully by a young wide eyed Indian Economist sagely commenting that ' China is exporting deflation ', and " this may be good, but is more likely to be bad" for the world markets. What on earth does that mean and talk about covering your bets. Talk and opinion is cheap and often is smoothly presented, but fundamentally you have to cut through it all. There was a lot of NasdaQ selling today on big volumes. I love the way the girls from The Talk closed the session in party mode.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #51 on: December 10, 2015, 09:13:02 am »
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  • BBC World/ Business had an excellent analysis of the Commodities Sector today, and also an excellent interview with the founder of Blurb - Eileen Gittins- the really successful how-to organisation/ platform for digital self publishing both e-book and hard copy. Both paths are growing. She was originally in the Kodak organisation and saw the business model thwart the application of their brilliant digital invention. As she says now about Blurb - make it and sell it. Simple and effective entrepreneurial brilliance.

    Oil.  The markets are following it. Storage is nearly at maximum with one month gross supply stashed. Storage costs will rise and the weaker most expensive producers will collapse. At that stage maybe the bottom of the market but it may be in the $25-29 range. Wait and see.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #52 on: December 10, 2015, 07:52:47 pm »
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  • Congratulations to the boys from Sydney and 13 years of work to produce a company listed today on NYSE valued at over $7 B USD, with shares currently trading at premuim over listing of 30% .... Atlassian

    Major growth future for genetic research... Illumina. Currently at $183 on NYSE. Applied science in Agrigenomics and Research into forensic genomics. Cost of access to personal genome has more than halved in last few years to around $500. Cost of access to family genetic mapping for research into our origins is $250 or less in Australia.



    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #53 on: December 11, 2015, 09:55:56 pm »
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  • Well it is the end of the trading week at NYSE and a summary might be timely as next week will be challenging with Wednesday NY for decision by FeDReS on step 2 of the re-balancing following the stresses of 2008. Step 1 was the end of Q/E. Step 2 will be the first raise in interest rates for a long time.

    It was  a challenging day with a lot of time for reflection. I watched it live for 5 hours through CNBC and there were some extraordinary speakers and guests as the Dow fell -310, and the other indices all about -2%. The volatility index rose to over 22 and rose 22%.

    I thought it best summarised after close by a long experienced Market Investor ' prepare for winter '.

    Yes during 2016 there may well be a correction of 20-40% on the Dow. Most accept and acknowledge this 7 year run is at the end of a long Bull Market, and many Traders and Investors who are young have not known Bear Market conditions.

    The nervy conditions were beautifully expressed by the scratchy and emotional Rick Santelli from the Chicago bond trading floor - 'like throwing ping pong balls into a room full of mousetraps'.


    Offline shuttle

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #54 on: December 12, 2015, 12:27:41 am »
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  • I don't know what the Fed will do on Wednesday but I think there is a high probability that they will leave rates at the current setting.  Markets will certainly be interesting if this happens.  I see that oil is still going down.  I find this very surprising as it's a finite resource that is rapidly being depleted.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #55 on: December 12, 2015, 11:57:02 pm »
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  • I don't know what the Fed will do on Wednesday but I think there is a high probability that they will leave rates at the current setting.  Markets will certainly be interesting if this happens.  I see that oil is still going down.  I find this very surprising as it's a finite resource that is rapidly being depleted.


    Yes thanks Shuttle.  I disagree as the Fed has painted itself into a corner. The inter-connectedness of everything is so fascinating. The Saudis are the prime movers on the oil agenda and their arrogance and political polarity ensures they will continue to churn out the stuff as if there is no limit.
    Electric power and hydrogen technology will have major implications on transport within 7 years. With Iran coming on stream for legal sales and production levels at massive volumes all need the income and the GDP deficit ratios in Saudi are unsustainable. It is as if they have no knowledge or awareness of the implications of their actions, while fracking and such technologies in North America and Europe are ultimately and very rapidly disastrous for the local environment.

    Whatever is decided there seems agreement that 2016 will be very sticky in many financial markets.  We have the Russian Trade Minister able to see 7 years ahead forecasting oil at $60 a barrel ( ludicrous) and a major bank warning of $20 a barrel for oil quite soon. Truth is no-one knows and the network of financial inter-connectedness grows more complex daily.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #56 on: December 24, 2015, 09:26:20 pm »
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  • Well Merry Christmas to all. It was fantastic to see classic Gary US Bonds close the Christmas Eve session at NYSE today.  Yesterday it was a classic choir.

    We love emotion in the markets and the Santa Claus rally that starts next week will be great to watch.

    In travelling I was a little lost without my trusty NYSE, so looks like the smartphone app is the next necessity. The volatility index has stabilised to about 15 but on low volume trades. Some of the expert insights have been fantastic and that is why I value the CNBC coverage so much. Really quite addictive.

    Overall to date the year on the NYSE markets has been level yet within that some large variations through commodities and currencies et al. One expert has commented on the importance of China and its efforts to stimulate their economy ( huge military spending) and establish a new basket of currencies excluding the USD. The result may well follow ongoing devaluation to encourage exports. As one has said they are exporting deflation.

    Attention will be on asset backed currencies, and already the NZD has leapt back up against the USD and we look forward to parity with the AUD again soon -lol.

    I love the ongoing joke. The Kiwis always punch well above their weight.

    What a fabulous week I had in Sydney - yes quite prepared to have Australia as the West Island.

    Best to all
    XXVV

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #57 on: January 06, 2016, 04:38:17 am »
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  • Welcome to the New Year 2016.

    In the Deep South we seem to have an extended holiday season. I recall one year - I was very social then - and a had a lakeside home in Auckland ( beside a flooded volcanic cone at sea level - very igneous, Auckland. The early hours of the morning were exquisite in an endless summer. The parties did not stop ( or I did not start designing) till mid May. There we go and it was Beachboys -Holland a favourite of mine soon after, but at that time Sparks and anything New York/ LA. Oh of course am forgetting Brian Ferry and Roxy who came to visit the relations of the NY artist, the Lichtensteins who lived just up the road in an exquisite 1920's Binney home which I always had admired, even more so when I knew they were related to Roy. The house had references to Voysey and Lutyens, the great English romantic Architects.

    But I digress - it is just that this summer in Tauranga is a bit like that - endless.

    Well it was a dud Santa Claus Rally - and who was surprised. Ask Cramer... He is quite acid on the Chinese.

    As for bookshops in Hong Kong - it's no wonder. Control Central. No, I would not invest at all in such a market, with Government controls.

    Brilliant recent episode on Keiser Report. That will be a post on it's own soon to follow. Overview on where all the economics is heading, back to the Middle Ages and bartering according to some. And the book I have just read, the Big Short  movie focus on 2008 about to be released, with parallel warnings, perhaps the whole notion of ETF's to be shorted.

    Offline shuttle

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #58 on: January 06, 2016, 07:09:21 am »
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  • The Beach Boys - Holland, I think it was the early 70's, that's giving away my age!  I'm looking forward to watching the Big Short on DVD, apparently Christian Bale's performance as Michael Burry is superb and I have read several good reviews of the film.  I have also read an article in New York magazine where Michael Burry says the financial system is in a worse state now that in 2008 when the GFC began i.e. the big banks are now bigger as are the U.S. Govt's debts, now approaching $19 trillion and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is now at $4.5 trillion and leveraged 77 to 1.  How can this end well?

    I must admit to being pessimistic about the coming financial year and the Chinese stock market going down 7% in a single day does not bode well.  As Mark twain wrote "It's not the return on my money that I'm interested in, it's the return of my money".  I think that will be my motto for 2016.  Also if the banks do fail again it won't be the Gov't doing the bailing out it will be the depositors who will be bailed in. 

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MARKET REPORT
    « Reply #59 on: January 06, 2016, 08:37:44 pm »
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  • It has been a useful phase for me to observe and attune to CNBC, BBC Money, CNN Business and all the other services on the talkfest. It is interesting to see all the studios around the world and their relative context but so much is inter-connected. What I have noted is that there is an opinion for just about everything, and worse when you see the published results for the 'advisers' on CNBC and then they try to differentiate between their public and private portfolios and strategies, you really must question the value of such people. Best, I do enjoy the interviews with the smart CEO's but of course that is why they have the top jobs and disproportionate salaries. They are talkers and persuaders.

    Two principles.

    I have been advised that once, through 'specialised knowledge' best selections are made in a spread of portfolios with the world's top professionals, then do not tune in daily, weekly or even monthly to the market talk. Check the portfolio performances. Take profit off the table, and go through variance reduction strategic steps.  As the best say, in roulette, or in investment. Keep it simple( through the process of engineering efficiency - ie removal of any surplus or counter productive components).

    Step outside of the day to day markets and look at the biggest possible picture through radical thinkers like Max Keiser and Simon Dixon. There has been talk of fundamental change for a while but increasingly the steps to enable this are being put in place, one by one, and over 2015 five major changes were completed but may lead to some global shifts that will shift the skew and permit better, fairer re-distribution of resources. This may be enables by a de-centralisation and more individual freedom in money access and management, with implicit help for those who need help and care and education.

    More on this in weeks to come.