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Offline XXVV

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Re: MB 16
« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2016, 12:58:08 am »
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  • Here is a session from this morning play at the same table.  You can understand the reason behind Martin Blakey's remark that because of the 90% SR of this simple bet there can be extended passages of easy mechanical play. Such as this....


    16
    7
    16
    23
    14
    25
    33
    3
    5
    28
    16
    6
    24
    29
    15
    36
    2
    22
    32
    26
    31
    8
    12
    15
    5
    30
    28
    28
    14
    29
    14
    30
    8
    29
    21
    32
    12
    21
    3
    23
    31
    -----

    the only tricky passage was

    30
    8
    29
    21  SL

    32  hit so proceed at next phase 2 level ie $5 units and commence with 2 units per corner bet

    12  hit

    21
    3

    23
    31

    ----


    I now play on phases of 4 movements

    2
    3
    5
    8  staking

    and start at $1 units

    On the second phase I move to $5 units

    2
    3
    5
    8

    there is a deliberate overlap and yes it takes two or more further wins to 'recover' the loss at end of phase 1

    We are exploring and investigating these procedures at the moment and of course it is the really stormy passages that sort out winners and losers.

    It may be to walk away with a loss even at end of phase 1 might be a logical strategy. We will compare notes.

    The outcomes were thus...

    1
    2
    2
    3
    1
    2
    1
    3
    2
    2    moving average for 10 window is 1.9 -  very attractive.
    1
    1
    2
    1
    1
    4
    2
    5
    1
    2
    2
    ----  at end of second W10 moving average had moved to 2.0

    Account balance  + 20,710 units ( I played only 5 outcomes live and observed the rest)

    When you encounter a stable not a cloud in the sky ( summer) passage which I saw after observing 5 outcomes, it was easy to then play and take 5 consecutive winning outcomes - nothing wrong with that. This is a subjective but discerning strategy. Keep out of trouble and take profit when offered.

    The relative simplicity of the MB16 is a gem, but do not be fooled. The real trick is handling the passages that are corrective and that would potentially ruin you - for that is what progressions can do unless totally controlled and managed. Recall also the strategic thinking where sometimes it is wiser to retreat and take losses, in order to come back stronger and refreshed and mop up earlier failures which will be already water under the bridge. With care and good judgement this can be a professional bet.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #16 on: June 30, 2016, 02:47:20 am »
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  • Here is the latest session. I tend to play these in 10 outcome cycles usually 20-30 spins and half an hour.

    35
    12
    6
    10
    26
    19
    23
    12
    25
    18
    24
    18
    5
    18
    33
    15
    14
    15
    3
    -----

    10 outcomes

    Stable context so I played up at $5 units commencement.

    If conservative or cautious over context play at $1 units.

    Finished at + 21,120 units

    There was only one challenging moment and we were fortunate to get out so easily again.

    25
    18
    24
    18
    ----- SL

    5     hit in virtual play so continue but in Phase 2, ie $25 units here  2,3,5,8

    18  WF hit
    33  street hit in private bet ( both are cover plays)
    15  hit
    ----

    14
    ---

    15
    ----

    3
    ----   whether other cover bets or not these two subsequent wins would enable full recovery

    Outcomes

    1
    1
    1
    3
    2
    5
    3
    1
    1
    1         W10 moving average 1.9  very favourable  - anything over 2.5 may be very challenging.
    -----

    My reading of the game is that the matrix set out as in the 4 corner bets   2/6    11/15    16/20    31/35  can also be played in parallel with another matrix set possibly by a player partner, or you, if you are a clear thinker. When play is automatic through sufficient practice then stressful situations can be faced or dodged or mitigated.

    I have not tested 2 matrices simultaneously but you could do this.  It could end disastrously of course- you need to test.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #17 on: June 30, 2016, 06:51:32 am »
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  • This was a more challenging session.  These are the outcome cycles.

    4
    2
    1
    1
    2
    5
    2
    4
    5
    3-----  W10 2.9 high  signals caution
    1
    1
    3
    1
    2
    1
    1
    2
    5
    5----- W10  2.2 appears to signal stability
    2
    4   had to go to Phase 3 to win through
    2
    1
    3
    1
    1
    6
    1
    2  -- W10  2.3 
    1
    4
    2
    1
    ----  34 outcomes 

    Final score +  22,330 units




    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #18 on: June 30, 2016, 08:11:42 am »
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  • One more session today and this one was less challenging but enabled me to access another 100 outcomes since the previous 200 outcome distribution. What I notice about this MB 16 is the relative consistency of distribution from 20-30 outcomes or more to the expected ratios.

    This is the list of outcomes....

    1
    3
    1
    1
    2
    4
    3
    1
    2
    1
    2
    3
    2
    1
    4
    4
    5
    1
    1
    3
    2
    2
    1
    1
    1
    2
    4
    2
    6
    1
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1
    4
    ----

    In both situations here where we had a stop loss there was a quick recovery to follow.

    Results to date + 23,885 units.  key title : Palladio

    I use discretion to bet  with higher value units if the context is more stable ( as in this session) and also play WF targets and occasional private bet stakes to reduce risk exposure during any progression. Thus unit earning sometimes follows by my being in Phase 2 staking through my confidence in the context. In the prior session there was a heavy draw down so be on guard.

    In the latter stages of the session I noticed there had not been many consecutive 1 spin hits so I loaded this more aggressively with great success  for the 20 +16  and 32 +12 + 3.  This is weighting according to a rational balancing.

    When we have devised a best staking plan for attack and defense balance ( and adjustment) we will test  30 x 100 spin outcomes and schedule the results for this bet MB16 exclusively.

    100 outcomes

    1    2    3    4     5     6     7    

    43   27  11   10    7    2     0   


    Again notice that outcomes 1-4 inclusive total 91%

    The corrective passages within this group of 100 outcomes ( about 250 spins ) were mild with no outcomes 7 or more.

    Take care with progression however and if you apply this bet use small units before building a large reserve bank.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #19 on: June 30, 2016, 09:45:10 pm »
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  • The consistency of the statistic regarding the 1-4 spin attempt success is demonstrated in the session analysis within the 100 outcomes.

    36 outcomes session #1  1-4 achieved  34/36

    34 outcomes session #2  1-4 achieved  29/34  at 85% SR

    10 outcomes session #3  1-4 achieved   9/10

    20 outcomes session #4  1-4 achieved  19/20

    Of course, and I should make this crystal clear. This bet has no edge.  I am simply demonstrating that it is a useful and painless ( also non time consuming) bet selection which is compact and effective. The winning here is in the Money Management.

    I like it because it contrasts with the simple but effective WF  and the much more complex predictive private bet and other techniques such as Finales or Pairs. The private bet has a proven edge and flat stakes although I sometimes complain over the variance being too loose.

    So what I do in practical play these days is sometimes to combine and overlay and adapt these bets to suit 'conditions'.

    Some situations, clear skies, favour aggressive play.

    With the MB16 I sometimes overlay WF tarhets and put double chips on such candidates. The last sessions reviewed did enable this.

    I will tell you another aspect or twist to this as well, and this is another reason I am favouring the MB16.

    Sometimes, with knowledge, you try to be too clever.

    To be too precise in roulette can leave you exposed to correction phases and as roulette play is based so much on player self management, self control, experience, and confidence, if we encounter setbacks it can lead to catastrophic failure as some generals have found in classic campaigns in history review.

    Roulette like chess requires highly developed strategic thinking, and shrewd fast decisions.

    Having a simple fixed mechanical bet can handle nearly everything randomness produces, and recall at the casino, the exit is always clearly marked, and very close.

    A healthy detachment is essential, and as in electronics, circuit breakers are essential to handle power surges or chaos.

    Sometimes, especially the data produced on the rouletteplayers.org table, perhaps where games are edited together there can be tough passages of play and I have found the MB16 as an anchor technique is very robust and flexible in that it has simple rules and a stop loss circuit breaker after 4 consecutive failures.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #20 on: July 01, 2016, 01:01:09 am »
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  • Session this morning was cautious at 20 outcomes recorded and 16 played live.

    Outcomes

    (3+)
    2
    4
    2
    1
    ---  start live
    2
    4
    2
    2
    1
    2
    5
    1
    1
    5
    2
    1
    2
    4
    1
    2
    ----
    (2)

    2 situations where SL cut in, but in both situations phase 2 was quickly resolved.  W10 running m/a stable at around 2.5

    Current Balance  +24,300 units

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #21 on: July 01, 2016, 07:09:38 am »
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  • By the way, this is all free - and credit must be given of course to Martin Blakey, but I must emphasise absolute caution. Progressions, even part progressions, can be extremely dangerous. So please take great care here. Is that a sufficient caveat?

    Here is the latest data and I can add the next variable which is a discretionary upgrading of phase bet level if the context deserves . Remember you can always pull the plug by leaving the table. Also you can overlay WF bets that fit the corner bets. This applies to other techniques as well. I also play 0 as an anchor bet on an independent account live but in this context out of the one account. I do not play 0 for every spin but only when signaled by other techniques or when the phase bets are escalating. In this session there were several 0 hits.

    At the end of the session the RB stands at + 32,025 units.

    19
    15
    9
    16
    19  19
    3
    9    9
    31
    3    3
    20
    11
    24
    21
    10
    30
    17
    20  20
    36
    22
    29
    15  15
    4
    22  22
    15  hit  WF  double
    ---
    0
    2
    23
    0    0
    32
    24
    30
    9
    29 ***
    14
    7
    8
    13
    13  13
    36
    35
    22
    19
    3
    15 
    15  15
    10
    33
    7     7
    27
    1
    25
    26
    7    hit WF
    ----
    19
    1
    25
    14
    34
    33 
    11
    0
    3
    22
    8
    33 
    15
    22
    9
    36
    0    0
    0    hit WF
    ----
    21
    11
    28  ***  notice the long space for B street set V40  - a record probably caused by a mid session edit ( equivalent to 360 spins single number)
    32
    30
    24
    24   24
    6
    4
    27
    31
    23
    2
    30  30
    22 
    2    2
    15
    32  32
    ----  end of live play
    24
    ---  hit WF
    29
    29
    11
    ---
    25
    2
    ----

    Outcomes

    1
    1
    2
    1
    1
    2   note the consecutive 1 spin hits and I added units to the stakes as a discretionary bet
    1
    1
    1
    5
    1
    4
    3
    2
    3
    5
    6
    2
    1
    1
    1
    9
    3
    1
    2
    2
    4
    7
    2
    4
    3
    2
    3
    1
    1
    --
    4
    --
    2
    ---

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #22 on: July 01, 2016, 09:55:37 pm »
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  • Here is a further insight into how a short sequence of spin outcomes can be interpreted and attacked by a creative player.

    35
    35   
    29
    33
    3      street hit on first attempt
    35    WF hit on fourth attempt
    32    finales hit on third attempt
    6      street hit on second attempt and wheel hit on fourth attempt
    36
    17    finales hit on third attempt
    15
    31    street hit on first attempt and finales hit on second attempt
    8      wheel hit on first attempt


    MB16  9 hits in 13 spins
      and on flat staking self funding +30 units ( units could be $1 to $100) - I was using $25 units not flat staking.

    Outcomes

    1
    1
    3
    1
    1
    1
    2
    1
    1
    ---  m/a 1.30  very positive over 9 outcomes

    This was a short live session on rouletteplayers.org table yesterday  with net gain of +1125 units on initial usage of 100 units.

    The principle of what I am attempting to demonstrate here is the incredible fertility of some short cycles of roulette spins  - 15 minutes worth in this case. Note I always mentally link 35 with 3 and 12 because of the European wheel layout and the double 35 reinforced interest in a clustering/ clumping insight/ clue. Further I can add my 'subjective' experience of often seeing 17 and neighbours immediately follow 0 or Zero section on the European wheel. It may be other players observe other frequent linkages but my link there has more frequently than not paid big dividends. Mind you I am spreading one group of 9 numbers although centred on 0, with another group of nine numbers-lol. Quite good odds for familiarity.

    A further point I need to emphasise.

    A smart player will be patient and wait ( like a fisherman) for such short shoals/ cycles of potential win cycles.

    My first clue was the first spin revealed, 35, and when it repeated I joined the game live and soon joined on several techniques overlaid.

    Such passages are not rare but they are also not necessarily common either. As with all natural principles, they tend to cluster also, so that when warm, the context may regularly offer similar opportunities after short spaces.

    At other times, depending of course on what you are looking for**, the seas may appear empty and still.

    ** this is of course subjective and that is why I overlap techniques sometimes, with strict control.

    One person can walk down a street and see ugly buildings, litter and decay, feeling very low and lonely.

    Another may observe exquisite details, hear birds singing, feel the gentle breeze, see the cloud patterns, and imagine opportunities for repair and beautiful design.


    Offline Moccoman

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #23 on: July 02, 2016, 01:21:07 am »
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  • Hi Richard,

    Being a fan of Martin, I tested your variation last night of MB 16 on Rapid Roulette at the Star in Sydney. I had tested this against my own bank of spins and was sufficiently satisfied with the results.

    I varied your static corners to 2,3,5,6/11,12,14,15/19,20,22,23 and 31/32/34/35 just to have a balance of L/H.

    I had sufficient BR to cover the first stage units of 2,3,5,8 and second stage 10,15,25,40 and third stage of 50,75, 125 and 200. On a $1 table this is a risk of $2,232, with a min/max bets of $1 to $500 on the corners.

    Even though my session was only 91 spins, I made a profit of $325 in less than 2 hours without having to use the third progression stage.

    The gaps between wins were:

    1
    3
    1
    1
    2
    2
    3
    2
    1
    8  But stop loss at 4
    1
    2
    12 But stop loss at 4
    3
    2
    2
    1
    1
    2
    5 But stop loss at 4
    1
    3
    1
    3
    2
    3
    1
    1
    3
    1
    2
    3
    1
    4
    1
    2
    1

    That's 36/39 (92.3%) for winning 1-4 in keeping with your results. Betting every spin the result would have been 39wins and 52 losses, which would be the standard for betting 16 numbers.

    The only problem is that to play at the tables, the minimum bet is $10/corner, so with the progression sufficient bankroll  $22,000 would very daunting.

    Mocco

         

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #24 on: July 02, 2016, 02:14:38 am »
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  • @ Mocco

    Thanks for your brave test my friend ( any friend/ fan of Martin is a friend of mine).

    That was quite a risk, and of course my 'tale' here is only partly told - in fact we are just at the start of this journey I suspect.

    I had just drafted a 30 min further note and then foolishly lost it while checking my update balance on the other screen at the table.  Nevermind perhaps I was not meant to say what I just did.

    So let us start again.

    I cannot emphasise enough the need to check and play only in a favourable context.


    Spins are independent on one level of course, but on many other levels and cycles are hugely connected by lots of hidden strings. That is why by viewing a few outcomes it is possible to assess whether we are in a win or corrective cycle. Cycles can be very short in this 16 target module, and can change in 10-15 spins but often go longer when in win mode. To observe for 3 -5 spins may be enough here. Be sensitive to change and observe example below.

    The 4 sequence play I believe is very sensible because when you look at the distribution chart of outcomes , after spin 4 attempt the number of outcomes falls away spectacularly, and as we say 90% of all outcomes fall within 1-4. However in a corrective phase you could have a 10, a 7 and 9 all adjacent. Then what.... you play Phase 4 in high anxiety and may lose thousands. I recall my Queensland Mentor saying that in the Jupiters Private Members Club he saw some disciples of MB sweating on the progressions and calculations!

    Of course that is all gossip because my Mentor used to play a short progression on 4 bets and 4 sets, so with overlaps and final cycle overlaps he might have 10 chips or more on key numbers ( table limit stuff).

    Progressions can be nightmarish and I am exploring here and playing the D/A somewhat to see what emerges.

    Here is this morning session.

    Spins

    11
    --
    28
    10
    2
    ---
    19
    ---
    32
    ---
    13
    11
    ---
    34
    ---
    2
    ---
    33
    22
    5
    ---
    18
    19
    ---
    16
    ---
    14
    ---
    14
    ---
    26
    4
    1
    12
    ---   and quit because the leap to a 4th bet exceeded prior context

    next outcome

    10
    9
    8
    20
    ---  ( another 4 spin)

    Outcomes

    1
    3
    1
    1
    2
    1
    1
    3
    2
    1
    1
    1
    4
    ---   look at the number of consecutive 1 opportunities - a valid method is to encounter 1 and that is a trigger then bet for another 1

    Flat staking  ( loss -4 and win +6, ie 3 loss but 1 win  gain at +8 and original 1 bet is returned)

    +6
    ---
    -4
    -4
    +6
    ----
    +6
    ---
    +6
    ---
    -4
    +6
    ----
    +6
    ---
    +6
    ---
    -4
    -4
    +6
    ----
    -4
    +6
    ---
    +6
    ---
    +6
    ---
    +6
    ---
    -4
    -4
    -4
    +6
    ----   o/a +41 units


    RB score at session end +35,255 units





    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #25 on: July 02, 2016, 02:36:00 am »
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  • @ Mocco

    Thanks for your data. The 8  12  and 5  popped up much without warning but were quickly recovered - thankfully.

    Flat staking the net result on your data was around +20 units * ( allow for minor discrepancies) ** and I am not sure whether you covered 0 or not, and in Christchurch on low value tables the casino has introduced a second 00. I play 0 or 0-00 as an anchor independent bet so when it comes in, for me it is a bonus.

    * a much better result when flat staking and SL after 4 -lol  !

    I think the 8 might have scared me off but after the 5 it was pretty stable play. Remarkable that if flowed out to +92% and yes around the corner there might have been a cloud or two. Perfect time to stop. Well done.

    Yes I agree your distribution is good but impossible to avoid middle column ( black) dominance bias.

    I also like to stop and take profit after 3 consecutive 1 spin hits so my own 16,14, 14 this morning was a gift and sign to leave with profit.

    Also it goes without saying but once profit is accumulated through blue skies sequences you would not want to give it back to them chasing a recovery on phase 2 or worse.

    I am delighted you did so well, and thanks for your considerable effort.

    My thought this morning is that I like short sharp sessions, and 10 wins in a streak are great for me. So I am just trying to steadily accumulate on the table. I am trying to dodge dangerous sequences and any thing 5 or more is a warning for me. In some cases I might walk or write off a loss if there were clouds such as 9,7,5 etc looming.  Recall a loss can be varied forward always to a new more favourable context in drips. I belive Martin might have advocated such.

    I know he had an occasional 1000 unit bank loss.

    What I am keen to explore again is his mathematics for recovery.

    Please comment or PM me if possible on this subject so we can re-investigate.

    In the meantime I am trying to play mainly in blue skies conditions, with some good fortune assisting.

    Best
    XXVV

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #26 on: July 02, 2016, 05:02:02 am »
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  • Well this is testing platform for Martin Blakey ideas and I have a pretty good feel for this corner bet but it is essential to be wary of the dangers and so my current phase of play reflects that. I do hope I have emphasised enough the potential risks and dangers of this bet.

    The RB took a hit this afternoon as 'curiosity' got the better of good judgement, and have had a remarkably fortunate run, dodging a few bullets from the table data.

    We are still in business but hit a savage corrective phase and despite my efforts the progression was such that I was fortunate to still be afloat at all- lol - but that is what this testing is all about - highlighting good examples but also throwing the spotlights on errors and risks, and learning from this compressed experience. Recall the old saying in roulette, 'when it is bad it is really bad'. After cruising for a week with continuous ATH ( new all time highs) I reached just a little far , and continuing despite warnings, and even an earlier correct decision to pause or even stop.

    I reached just over +37,000 units but because of my progression line, despite the pauses and stops, just could not bridge the gaps to start the re-climb despite several opportunities. When we are stressed our judgement does become skewed, and this reinforces the advice to keep sessions short or risk exposure to a corrective phase which I will illustrate here.

    Recall we started with + 1000 units and built upward for 10 consecutive days reaching + 37,000. Now we are back at +10,000.

    Here are the outcomes.

    3
    3
    2
    1
    4
    2
    3
    2
    1
    1
    1
    1---- and at this stage I stopped at ATH.

    4
    2
    1   and re-started out of curiosity

    1
    2
    3
    5
    7
    5
    7

    3
    6 ----- could not progress further so stopped at this stage
    4
    2
    4
    1
    7
    4

    ----- just could not enable traction to climb out of this hole and despite the opportunities to follow paused to re-start another day

    1
    1
    2
    3
    4
    1
    2
    2
    3
    3
    4
    1
    2
    2
    5
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    3
    -----

    average for those first 30 outcomes was over 3.0 - very tough and even allowing next 20 was still 2.9 at end of play.

    lesson - stop and take profit when offered - in this case we could claim research curiosity kept me playing but it was very challenging.

    So there we have it - a robust session - a large re-tracement on the RB but will now apply a very conservative staking plan ahead and now we are actually on the table register we shall try to consistently lift the bet efficiency.

    I was tempted to play at too high unit values ( trying to reach 40,000 as a goal) and was caught by the correction cycle.  Also in such situations it is wise to recognize  that after the 5 and 7 it is going to be tough and best to step aside as soon as possible, during a chaotic stormy phase.

    The sequence 5,7,5,7,3,6  should have been bridged with second phase play bets, but I was pushing at two levels too high because of early easy phase 1 streaks.

    It will be fascinating now to move ahead on a strictly more conservative base strategic play.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #27 on: July 02, 2016, 08:03:23 am »
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  • Determined to dig out of the hole this driver after a pit stop and refuel attacked the opportunities offered and with bravery fought back to + 20,746 units not adhering to most conservative staking but reading opportunities staked accordingly such as following prior 1 spin hits after the corrective phase had passed with both 1 and 2 spin bonus staking.

    Outcomes

    4
    7
    1
    5
    3
    2
    4
    2
    2
    3
    8
    3
    2
    1
    7
    1
    4
    2
    1
    2
    2
    6
    1
    1
    1
    1
    2
    1
    5
    4
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    3
    4
    1
    2
    -----

    Average 2.6  for outcomes over 41 examples - this is more accessible.

    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #28 on: July 03, 2016, 12:13:13 am »
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  • Some progress today in further recovery and updated RB for Palladio is now +21,795 units.

    These are the outcomes....

    3
    1
    4
    1
    3
    3
    2
    1
    1
    1
    1
    7
    1
    1
    1
    6
    1
    1
    1
    1
    2
    1

    Interesting that the 1 spin hits do tend to follow one another and can provide a parlay opportunity which I frequently leverage.

    Here is the latest 100 outcome distribution chart and incorporates the troubling corrective phase.

      1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9
      31  29  15  12  5    2    5    0    1


    The 1-4 spin successes total 87% here - as one might anticipate - a little lower than expected.


    Offline XXVV

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    Re: MB 16
    « Reply #29 on: July 03, 2016, 12:20:11 am »
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  • One colleague wisely pointed out yesterday that when hitting the wall in a bad corrective cycle it might be a good idea to quickly abandon the usual corner bet template and switch to #mode 2  or #mode3.

    Probably a good idea to draft up three corner bet templates and obviously select the areas being hit in the problematic spin  corrective cycle for one template which is probably a win cycle for another.