BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Topic: Philosophy of Prediction  (Read 779 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline XXVV

  • Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1576
  • Gender: Male
  • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
    • View Profile
Philosophy of Prediction
« on: October 14, 2018, 08:47:09 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Hello all.

    I have returned after many adventures.

    Am keen to discussion 'betting' and whether such can be successful in the long term as 'statistical analysis' is not good enough to overcome 'black swan' events.

    Am happy to access questions and comments but I propose to share my current approach to roulette in particular in coming weeks.

    Best XXVV
    R


    Offline VLS

    • Back on the main seat
    • Administrator
    • *****
    • Posts: 2887
    • Gender: Male
    • Software Architech
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #1 on: October 15, 2018, 07:41:14 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Welcome Back!! :thumbsup:

    We're certainly eager to learn more about your statistical-event insights :nod:

    Bring-in the swans :rose:
    Email: betselectiongmail.com
    -- Victor

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1576
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #2 on: October 20, 2018, 11:46:54 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Thank you Victor and fellow members.

    I will be direct and state this re-connection is not to provide an almighty revelation as to the missing W3M bet or CWB or other acronym, but a mode to enable me to think aloud, and offer some suggestions for further research.

    You may or may not be surprised to find that my suggestions have come out of an extended phase of searching, not just philosophically but fundamentally spiritual as to just what we are trying to do 'gambling'.

    I suggest, and have been advised, that 'prediction' is fatally flawed, although useful in the short term and in small samples when conducted rigorously. What is short term?  Is that sufficient to provide 'consistent', sustainable income?

    Probably not, based on my past experience.

    Better perhaps to live in the 'present', set aside statistical evidence, for the black swan events will eventually provide ruin, and instead 'tune in' to a target in a quantum mechanics mode, being 'outside' of 'time'.

    A few years I did indeed conduct an experiment along those lines, with help from colleagues internationally, and at a specific location and time, in a casino, playing roulette.

    It was a stunning success, and a meditation in action.

    However I never repeated this.

    Why ?  Because the collaboration and fragmented energies of multiple international personalities was like herding cats - just not practicable.

    However that is not to say that a team of say 2-3 'like minds' in a casino location could not re-ignite this fire.

    The problem then is 'like-minds'.  Very very hard to gather and maintain and direct. Unless there are large resources and rewards available, which is possible, but clear goals need to be established to enable this and I suggest thus could be a 12 month project.

    That is one approach - quantum mechanics.

    Here is another idea, and because this involves solo experience and action it is infinitely easier.

    I am trying to do away with the idea of 'prediction', ie seeing into the future.

    We know how risk banks in casino, in racing, in sports betting, can be eroded.

    However consider some of the research available and published on YouTube regarding professional gamblers - this term I see as somewhat inappropriate as 'gamblers' by definition - have negative connotations or expectations in the long run.

    To gamble - taking risky action in the 'hope' ( anticipation to various degrees) of a desired result.

    Risk - exposure relative to danger, harm or loss.

    Financial Risk - the 'probability' that an actual return on an investment will be 'lower' than the expected return.

    Risk- Reward Ratio    a considered relation between exposure to risk in order to enable higher reward and success.

    A long and relatively consistent set of 'modest' rewards may enable a professional to make a living - sometimes a substantial living - from well considered choices/ selections and action in a casino or 'betting' environment.

    This can be extended to financial markets, but of course they can all crash at times, and often do in quite regular cycles. We can visualise these 7/8 and 18/20 year cycles when for examples commodity prices are compared to equity prices, and the current US equity markets are heading for a major correction by such a graphic measure after the ten year bull market.

    So what do we do. We research, overview, be honest with ourselves, and ask just what is it that I am seeking to achieve with this activity?'

    My current work in the casino, involves roulette, and after decades of overview and extraordinary insight and analysis, in order to seek out relatively consistent returns, looks at setting a net over a universal phenomenon of number (finale) appearances and draws a stop loss line over a distribution curve that demonstrates an 82-99% strike rate depending on extent of the net.

    Following simple rules, determined by trial and error, and observation over many thousands of spins, I have a short stop progression and a Risk Bank of 200-500 units playing at say $5 level that enables a game sequence that averages about 10 spins.

    I merely observe a short cycle dominant finale and target that after suitable trigger to fulfill a short dominance within an average of 10 spins. In practice this may be in 1 spin once triggered, or 20 spins in more complex sequences, but never involving more than 3-5 groups of finales, or else the stop loss curtain is drawn, with Risk Bank adjusted to level of risk exposure.

    There are simpler ways to play, but I currently favour this.

    It is still predictive, and thus fatally flawed. I will report in due course. It is fun but not a CWB.

    When you really ask yourself however, as did Krishnamurti, just what is behind your goal 'to gamble', and you take it back, take it back, you may be surprised to find the answer lies not in the casino or financial markets at all, but in a new mode altogether.

    I will share this with you in about 2-3 weeks time, and the answer will surprise you. Hopefully it may delight you also, and perhaps that is why I first chose or was directed to write in a roulette forum, this roulette forum, several years ago.

    Best Wishes.
    R.


    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1576
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #3 on: October 22, 2018, 04:02:57 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • One of the amazing lessons I have learned in recent years is that if you have a worthy question, and what question is not worthy, you will receive guidance from many levels, instantly or near enough, depending on your receptivity. This means of course to what degree you are able to listen, and if necessary acknowledge your wrong direction, and re-set your course.

    This question arose in my mind as to the value of 'gambling'. In fact spurred by repeated doses of RQ or 'Risk Analysis Intelligence' and the spurious argument put forward by Prof Dylan Evans et al, that 'roulette' should not be considered as are poker, BJ and sports betting, ie as worthy of intelligent analysis, as roulette is 'a game of pure chance and is random'.

    I have known for some time that roulette is capable of intense analysis and under certain circumstances, a small fortune can be made in one sitting if the player is alert, intelligent, experienced, and well resourced. These 'circumstances' or conditions occur in my view about 50% of observable spins, with the remainder being 'unsuitable' or illegible.

    I use the metaphor of the 'reading' of a game.

    Sometimes 'random' outcomes are breathtaking in their lucidity for the reader. While most opportunities remain invisible to the vast majority of players, these worthy situations are truly beautiful and ripe for selection. There are also many useful analogies with professional market trading and analysis, with the relative purity of casino live play ( and even RNG outcomes) free of the corruption of market manipulation on Wall St.

    Yes I am aware of many years of debate over casino RNG programming, and also casino management. I have been through all of that and found ways to transcend those disruptions.

    The successful roulette player must be well qualified, and yes 10,000 hours are needed.

    More on this later, but right now ( despite my earlier thinking aloud debate over the worth of casino gambling) here are some thoughts and data that put the case for professional roulette gambling and yes including the principles of RQ.

    Roulette can be beaten, and yes I believe it can be (relatively) consistently beaten by applying measures from professional market traders and principles of RQ, along with suitable roulette strategies.

    I have many, and at times have had too many ( distraction), as focus is an imperative, as much as realistic goals, strategic thinking, planning, patience and wisdom.

    Here is a revised technique that I believe has some use by a professional.

    I can speak because it actually is an adaptation of a technique used by a colleague who regularly played at the Ritz Casino in London.

    Finales. RB 250 units and playing from 1-4 incl finales targets.  Earn  +300 units in 120 spins using a short stop progression.

    The following spins were recorded live and 14 short games were obtained in 120 spins. There were 14 consecutive winning games here. Only 1 went to 4 finales.  3 games played out with only 1 Finale. As is often the case most games consisted of 2 or 3 Finales , but here only 3 went to 2 Finales, and 7 went to 3 Finales.


    Clearly a RB can be earned, as here , in 2 hours play as these were recorded from RNG in the Casino - NOT internet. Handily there is 1 spin every minute.

    Live wheels are often 2 or 3 x duration, unless you are playing alone.

    RNG casino games have a handy repeat button on the screen enabling fast positioning.

    I used to be paranoid about playing these screens but no longer, and especially so if there are several adjacent players, I have experienced many successes. However if you wish to be super sure, then play more slowly and find a suitable spacious and private table. You need to be super organised.

    Here is the spin sequence.

    Tomorrow I will show the analysis and technique.

    11
    30
    26
    34
    0
    20
    ----
    16
    32
    17
    21
    3
    16
    7
    0
    36
    ----
    13
    10
    4
    3
    29
    14
    20
    20
    ----
    29
    23
    0
    13
    0
    35
    36
    16
    13
    ----
    7
    2
    16
    12
    12
    -----
    25
    2
    34
    26
    2
    14
    29
    31
    19
    15
    26
    22
    ----
    24
    22
    32
    29
    4
    0
    8
    11
    22
    ---
    2
    12
    16
    15
    13
    15
    1
    16
    25
    24
    6
    25
    9
    22
    27
    8
    24
    36
    24
    ----
    4
    16
    17
    28
    9
    11
    1
    20
    12
    11
    ----
    28
    36
    8
    34
    11
    2
    10
    36
    0
    20
    ----
    33
    32
    9
    8
    17
    15
    2
    19
    ----
    8
    28
    10
    6
    3
    9
    ----
    26
    2
    35
    17
    31
    28
    5
    6
    15
    -----

    note I play 8/9 as one Finale

    More tomorrow
    R

    Offline Gizmotron

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1519
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 10:20:33 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Excellent post and topic. 10,000 hours experience. It does take that long to get a feeling for when something is working. After all that time the distractions of magical beliefs have all faded out of sight. Useless tactics and systems have all but been eliminated from consideration. A more focused view becomes clear. And you don't need charts to see the trends in the Finales. The marquee is all that is needed if the thing is picking up every spin. They do in Rapid Roulette styled stadium seating with consoles for betting. They never miss a spin.


    I would not call trend betting prediction. I would call it a kind of allowing yourself to win based on a method of bet selections. If you have experience then it is not hard to see when it is working and by how well that it is working. But then that could be called a philosophy based on a metaphorical, "prediction."


    Great post.
    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1576
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #5 on: October 23, 2018, 04:48:18 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Thank you very much Gizmo.

    Already I have received some remarkable encouragement and new connections. Perfect timing and inspirational. Sincere thanks to you and your current writing which I will study with great enthusiasm.

    Please allow me to sometimes change my mind, shift direction, and occasionally contradict myself in writing. This is an ongoing experiment but I am really heartened that I can see a welcoming light ahead, and some colleagues on this incredibly exciting adventure ahead.

    Best Wishes
    R.

    Offline Jimske

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 432
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #6 on: October 23, 2018, 04:26:51 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Anyone who can invoke the late J. Krishnamurti has got my attentiion.  ;)

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1576
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #7 on: October 24, 2018, 04:50:27 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Well he demonstrates definitively what is at the heart of our desires, and we can find that source by just re-iterating back to the Source.

    The process he suggests is very constructive and it reminds us we just have to be more rigorous and self honest, not lazy.

    Well that policy works well in the casino environment as with any other location.

    More soon. I have a lot to review - perhaps I can write this coming weekend.  Thank you for your kind reply.

    Online alrelax

    • B&M Player since 1980
    • Global Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 3645
    • Gender: Male
    • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #8 on: October 24, 2018, 05:20:28 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • I posted the following elsewhere under another thread here, but I think we all need to consider:

    "What so many (countless) players do not even consider is, "The event I am wagering for or told to wager, does it even actually exist or just occasionally happen"? 

    IMO and experience playing in B&M's, that is the number one thing that fuels with extreme emotional and overpowering 'false positives' the player that is actually playing live and gambling." 
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Online alrelax

    • B&M Player since 1980
    • Global Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 3645
    • Gender: Male
    • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #9 on: October 24, 2018, 05:59:41 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • As well:

    Things many believe in that lead themselves to 'false positives' as I label those things, are not necessarily wrong or incorrect, just not correct at the time of bet placement/wagering. 

    And, that leads to huge losses and the fuel to continually fail and compound the players knowledge bank with non-learning and failure to realize what he is actually up against.

    That is, IMO, the part that makes or breaks almost all players, it is called experience.  Like Gizmo brought forward, a player cannot proceed further down the gambling road---if he does not have the actual experience.  It cannot happen and it will not happen, strictly on the internet with test patterns and reading/researching.  It can not. 
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Offline XXVV

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 1576
    • Gender: Male
    • Legio XX Valeria Victrix LVX
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #10 on: October 26, 2018, 01:01:02 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Yes accurate reading of the game before you is vital, in the present, and in the knowledge that roulette is a game of many overlapping short cycles embedded within larger cycles and so on. Very beautiful. One can think of stones of varying diameter and varying velocity falling into calm water, and the observation of the rings that flow outward.

    Offline Gizmotron

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1519
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #11 on: October 26, 2018, 03:29:18 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • I've built many versions of practice software. It's good for seeing the best trends. But once you have that skill it is like riding a bike. When you take that skill into the casino with a basic strategy then the only thing that matters is what the spins are. They are random. It comes to you to see what type of opportunities reveal themselves. Some are good, some are bland, some are a waste of your time. All the practice in the world can't change the conditions you are seeing now. Past practice sessions never equal the experience of placing bets at a live casino.


    I can't practice anymore. It's a waste of my time. I have my basic strategy backed up by my ability to read my charts. It's just a matter of sticking to it. I know to not get caught up in new unique patterns that only serve to distract me. Experience tells me to stick to the charts. The speed of the table and having enough time to read the charts and place the bets is different than practice sessions that have automatic charts and single button pushes to place bets. Then there are the D-Head's that must tell you their life's story or how many parking spaces are in row 12 of the east parking lot. You must know how to smile and ignore these distractions too.
    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

    Offline Blue_Angel

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 886
    • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #12 on: October 26, 2018, 10:31:33 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Why you group numbers this way?
    Do finales have something special about them?


    In my point of view this kind of reading is biased because it prevents to make any possible combination of numbers.
    For example, if some day the over-performing numbers are 7, 16, 23, 36 then no group of finales could contain them all.


    We could categorize numbers with many ways, numerology, ECs, wheel sectors, birthdays, "lucky" numbers...etc
    However, on the end all it matters is how they perform over a specific duration of spins.


    Your glasses Richard have Finales all over them, perhaps you should replace them.
    ''For after all what is man in nature?
    A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
    The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
    He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

    Offline 6th-sense

    • Steady Member
    • **
    • Posts: 90
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 05:43:54 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • been a long time richard...for both of us...i,ll bob in and off here to keep up...you will remember me as commonsense1968

    Offline greenguy

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 262
      • View Profile
    Re: Philosophy of Prediction
    « Reply #14 on: November 05, 2018, 12:46:14 AM »
  • ReplyReply

  • We could categorize numbers with many ways, numerology, ECs, wheel sectors, birthdays, "lucky" numbers...etc
    However, on the end all it matters is how they perform over a specific duration of spins.

    100% agree. Been saying this for ages but nobody seems to get it.

    Doesn't matter how you categorise your numbers because all methods have the same level of validity.

    IMO, the structure of the game does lend itself to the Finales being a very convenient starting point though.