Say we want to transform the game into mere symmetrical successions where asymmetrical hands do not form B results, thus considering them as a bonus when betting Banker and a kind of losing zero at roulette when betting Player.
Naturally the asym hand apparition remains a bonus (+15.86%) on B bets and a same negative happening on P wagers.
Thus it's not a sure win or loss on either sides.
Surely our long term results will be affected by the number of times we crossed an asym hand when betting B, and at the same time by the number of times we met an asym situation when betting P.
Itlr and in absence of a valuable bet selection the AS/S ratio will approach more and more to the expected 8.6/91.4 ratio. Therefore we are losing.
And the EV gap between a long term betting made on B instead of P is 0.18%.
Therefore there are only two options to win or to lower/cancel the HE:
a- getting an higher asym/sym hands ratio than expected capable to invert the HE when wagering Banker;
b- wagering Player only on symmetrical situations.
Then what might help us to define the terms of the problem?
Average asym hand distribution, for example.
Players are too focused about the actual outcome, maybe in the effort to follow an unguessable succession.
When betting Banker we must hope that no matter how are consecutively placed our bets an asym hand must come out within a shorter gap than expected.
Otherwise we're losing money, a lot of money I mean, even if the actual pattern is a symmetrical BBBBBBBBPBBBB succession (for that matter even a single asym hand happening on this sequence is a long term money loser when regularly betting banker)
Gaps between more frequent symmetrical hands and rare asymmetrical spots.
Asym-asym hand apparition hugely favors the B side and actually some shoes will present many asym hands distributed in couples (or more).
In reality. more often than not asym hands come out in single apparitions (for obvious reasons) or clustered at some portion of the shoe.
We ought to remember that natural/standing points on Player side totally deny the asym hand happening and some Player drawing points crossing an asym hand are actually favorite to win (think about a P5-B4 drawing situation).
On the other end, it's sure as hell that at least a couple of asym hands will come out per every shoe played. Meaning that sooner or later a constant Player betting virtually getting an EV not lower than zero, will cross those unfavourable spots where our P bet is worthless.
Sym spots hugely favor Player side for several reasons:
- first, we're playing no worse than a fair game as bets will be payed 1:1;
- secondly, as long as no asym hand will be formed, key cards will land equally on both sides;
- third, the 7/6 symmetrical standing point situation is unequally payed regarding which side we bet.
The idea is that baccarat should be considered not just in terms of patterns but in term of ranges (gaps) helping one side at various degrees or at worst not damaging the other one.
Sometimes (just for practical purposes) the most likely pattern distribution tend to correspond to those ranges.
Knowing that most outcomes are in direct relationship of sym hands results, we should focus our attention about the actual probability and distribution to get higher initial four-card points as this is the main tool that shift the results.
A thing that we'll discuss tomorrow.