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Why bac could be beatable itlr

Started by AsymBacGuy, June 28, 2019, 09:10:24 PM

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AsymBacGuy

At gambling and in games in general asymmetrical results tend to be the norm and for that matter even the real life presents infinite situations where AS sequences predominate.
Itlr events are expected to equalize, providing the same conditions and parameters to run by the same force.

For example a poker tournament is the epitome of asymmetry.
No matter how long is conceived a tournament (the longest are some WSOP events), cards cannot be dealt by symmetrical standards thus some players will be kissed by more lucky hands than others (especially when certain inevitable key spots arise), otherwise the best poker players would win every tournament.
No doubt that itlr best skilled players will account more wins than the rest of the field and that's another important (decisive) form of asymmetry.

For sure cards dealt at a given poker tournament are an actual form of asymmetry and the different skills among participants are a potential form of asymmetry.

Differently than poker tournaments and just regarding the first factor, baccarat is a huge  democratic game as cards are dealt without favoring some players, so in some sense everybody's action is the cause of his/her own destiny.

Obviously the poker comparison was made to emphasize the second factor, uncontested at poker (itlr more skilled players will overcome less skilled players by a 100% level) but more debatable at baccarat.

So the question is: does it exist a "skill factor" at baccarat capable to get the best of the innumerable sequences every player must face along the course of his/her action?

If we were to take a possible positive answer, a good start would be to take for grant that most successions are the by product of a slight asymmetrical force affecting the results, the same way poker tourneys are expected to deal asymmetrical situations.
And when they are not and differently than poker tournaments where we have to put blinds and antes and passively accepting the asymmetry, at bac we can choose to stay away from the betting without losing a dime.

More later

as.   
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Success is not a goal, it's just a by-product

AsymBacGuy

Basically we should be more interested about assessing what's the actual shoes production we're playing at instead of thinking that a general plan will get the best of it no matter what.

Casinos are not there to give the players easy solutions about beating baccarat and claiming that natural variance will make things unpredictable for long is a complete bighorn.sh.it statement.

Therefore most shoes are playable as long as the asymmetrical factor seems to be predominant or at least when the symmetrical counterpart is well restrained in its appearance.
When clustered symmetrical patterns tend to come out at the initial/intermediate portions of the shoe, we could safely assume that that shoe isn't playable.

Of course the cut card could provide valuable asymmetrical hands at the same fragments of any shoe dealt, so conceding the room for the unwanted S counterpart in the final portions of it.
Yet huge clumps of Symmetrical patterns are more likely to come out when..."they managed to really come out" as just one hand or few hands might transform a long sequence of As patterns into a back-to-back symmetrical patterns succession.

That means that symmetrical patterns surpassing the 1 (isolated) or 2 (1-step cluster) levels are more probable to provide more clustered sym patterns as the force slightly shifting patterns toward the asymmetry will be "consumed" by coincidental factors not belonging to a more likely distribution.

Summary

If most hands would be arranged by a kind of long symmetrical patterns distribution, the game wouldn't exist as the vast majority of players will rely upon a "human ability" of detecting outcomes by too much simple standards.
Surely this thing happens but not by degrees capable to overcome all other patterns formation and for sure not capable to erase/invert the HE.

Besides the obvious math edge and the bad attitude of many players, casinos rely upon a more probable "chaotic" world and the key word of such world is "asymmetry".
Thus they do not fear symmetry as they know it won't stand for long, collecting profits after the many more probable "undetectable" asym patterns naturally coming out along the way.

Baccarat card distributions are more likely to provide asymmetrical patterns of some lenght or getting symmetrical patterns to stop at more probable points.
This feature is strictly related to the actual shuffling procedure: RTM softwares instructing the machine to deal unrandom sequences will make less reliable the "average shoe" concept.
Yet RTM productions are so polarized that most of the times a searched outcome might be silent for longer frames than expected but then a more natural flow will be more entitled to show up than average. An additional reason to bet very few hands.

Assume that most part of symmetrical patterns are coming out coincidentally and not for natural reasons.
I mean that itlr random productions will more likely distribute by low levels of symmetry and moderate/high levels of asymmetry.
Unrandom productions could easily provide a larger than naturally expected back to back consecutive symmetrical patterns, but they someway must stop so conceding more room to asym situations.

Clustered symmetrical patterns of 3 or more most of the times are the by product of hands that had weirdly produced an unexpected symmetrical pattern whereas a more natural asymmetrical pattern was due.
The conclusion is that whenever a shoe shows symmetrical patterns longer than 2 or whenever the A/S patterns ratio is too much shifted toward the right S side, let the recreational players and tourists to make their betting. You are in a 100% better shape to stand up and drink something waiting for the next shoe.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Success is not a goal, it's just a by-product

AsymBacGuy

The asymmetrical/symmetrical (A/S) strategy rely upon the difficulty (or, better sayed, the predictability) that more often than not S will concede a fair room to A, always considered by the probability that two consecutive different patterns happen.

So assuming that singles are 1, doubles are 2 and 3/3+ streaks are 3, the strategy focus about the probability that 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3 won't come out so clustered to deny a more likely heterogeneous distribution, with the important caveat that 1-1-1... constitute a form of asymmetry (therefore x-1-1-x is a symmetrical pattern).
The asymmetry is a simple natural by product of the asymmetrical key card arrangement.

Our data suggest that different long symmetrical pattern clusters are produced by either unsound math situations happening for long (fkng variance) or by a RNG software instructing cards to be dealt by a unrandom factor.

Whenever we'd think to face a RNG software, best strategic line to adopt will be to raise our standard requisites by waiting that S will show up two times in a row (so enticing us to selectively wagering toward A after S-S) or to bet according to the general rules I've written above.

Thus 1-1 should be considered as a symmetrical pattern, whereas 1-1-1 or longer 1 clusters are asymmetrical patterns.

2-2 is a symmetrical pattern, 2-2-2 or longer patterns remain symmetrically shaped.

3-3 is a symmetrical pattern, 3-3-3 or longer patterns remain symmetrically shaped.     

1-2 or 2-1, 1-3 or 3-1, 2-3 or 3-2 are all asymmetrical patterns. Of course at such categories  the aforementioned 1-1-1(...) class will be added.

Example.

The shoe went as

2-1-1-1-3-3-1-1-1-3-3-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-3-3-3-1-2-3-1-1-2-3

A-A-S-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S-A

One more shoe:

2-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-3-2-1-3-1-2-1-1-2-3-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1-2-2-1

A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-S

A less likely shoe

3-1-1-1-1-3-3-1-1-3-3-1-1-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-2-3-2-1-2-2

A-A-S-S-S-S-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-A-S

Another one:

1-3-1-3-1-3-3-3-2-2-3-3-2-2-1-3-3-2-2-2-1-3-2

A-A-A-A-A-S-S-S-S-A-S-S-A-A

Then this shoe:

3-3-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-2-2-1-1-3-1-3-2-1-3-2-1-1-2-3-1-1

S-S-A-S-S-S-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-S-A-A-(-1)

We see that there are no ways to rely upon a costant A>S probability, actually I've sayed that S tend to get a slight major impact over the A patterns (assuming a p= 0.75%).
On the other end, empirical rules I've suggested to follow in my previous posts will make consecutive losses very unlikely to happen, especially if before betting we'll wait some fictional losses to happen.

Finally and at least if you are trying to make a living at this game you shouldn't forget to consider some shoes as totally unplayable; technically that means to avoid tie rich shoes, shoes where strong math advantaged hands went wrong too many times in a row or featuring an unexpected huge ratio, or more simply when S clusters and/or A isolated patterns will go beyond the 2 level.

We're so sure about that that only unrandom sequences can't be beatable by any means other than by a simple short term luck factor.
So be more cautious about risking your precious money at those RNG successions.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Success is not a goal, it's just a by-product

AsymBacGuy

BTW, assume that softwares can set up more "weird" volatile outcomes at the Big Road than at the other derived roads as the vast majority of bac players tend to follow Big Road than other derived random walks.

When serious money is involved (and at baccarat that's the case) we have learnt not to trust anyone or anything, besides some Vegas high end casinos.

Any initial two-card point is supposed to win a fair amount of hands and following normal sd values in accordance to the points gap.
Whenever the underdog side keep winning interminable hands, we are pretty sure to face a unrandom game and not a natural variance situation.
The same when too many hands are resolved by 6 cards.

So do not consider any card distribution a "fair card distribution", especially when cards come out shuffled from nowhere and then reshuffled by a machine before being dealt.
Randomness is a very complicated issue not being accomplished by such a kind of action.

Avoid to play while facing consecutive shoes where many two card combinations hadn't taken place once (best spots to take care of are standing 6s and standing 7s in their combinations) or when 8s and 9s seem to come out "too much 1/6.5 ratio balanced".

More simply, stay put when a larger than expected amount of polarized hands will come out.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Success is not a goal, it's just a by-product

alrelax

Reference number of cards to decide a hand, combination of cards, expected or unexpected, etc., etc.  It is possible to win in bac with anything that is being presented if (IF) your wager is in the correct spot.

Anything and Everything happens in baccarat with basically an equal amount of shoes versus any non equal cluster of shoes.  Meaning, chop-chops, doubles, triples, 1s and 2s, 1s and 3s, chops and then 6-7-8 iar, etc., etc., etc.  all happens extremely frequently.  Streaks of say 9iar and greater do not, however they do come out and can also be large and easy money makers or detrimental killers to those wagering with or against. 

I can't phantom playing for days on end, week after week, month after month, to witness the highest amount of shoes played out. 

I have believed in and prospered more than I did not, since subscribing to the player's Sections, Plateau, Tier Level, and a rock solid Money Management Method while deploying an aggressive pos-progressive wagering technique. 

And any session will be held to part of a shoe to a max of 3 shoes.  Anything greater IMO, experience and discussion upon countless brick & mortar bac players are detrimental to the player's advantage. 

Just my thought from my experiences:

https://betselection.cc/wagering-intricacies/you-must-figure-out/msg72871/?topicseen#msg72871
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 37,120 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

THE PURPOSE OF GAMING IS TO WIN!

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.
 
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