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Topic: Baccarat mathematical facts  (Read 2879 times)

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Offline AsymBacGuy

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Baccarat mathematical facts
« on: September 24, 2015, 10:25:27 PM »
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  • Here's some baccarat mathematical situations. 

    - Player hand draws the third card: 50.3%

    So any careful and very long peeking of the P cards will get no good news half of the times, no matter how the player is concentrated in doing this.
    Worst news for them is peeking up a "three side" card when having a 4 or a 5. Among other scenarios, a nightmare for us it's when those legendary peekers find a three side card having a 3 point.     


    - Both sides stand: 37.8%

    Almost four times over ten the action is freezed just on the first four cards.
    So in such situations there should be no point to bet Banker. Unfortunately we know this after it happened. 


    - Natural point on either side: 34.2%

    Again more than 1/3 of the deck will provide immediate and perfectly symmetrical outcomes. In this circumstance there's either one fantastic bet or a very poor one. Coincidentally we tend to win most of our bets by a natural point when betting Banker and regularly losing with an 8 when wagering Player. Naturally, whenever we win by a Player 9, we won't care a bit about the point landed on Banker that quite often is a losing 8. A pure form of selected attention.
       

    - Banker draws no matter what: 43.4%

    Despite its advantage when betting Banker we'll expect to draw and hope for the best more than four times over ten. Better than 50.3% of the time, still an high percentage.


    - Banker draws after Player stands: 11.8%

    Good news for Banker aficionados. They know to go uphill just a bit more than one time over ten hands.


    - Banker stands after Player draws: 18.7%

    Again no bad news for Banker fans. Almost one time over five they could rely just upon the strenght of the very two first cards dealt.


    - Both hand draw: 31.6%

    For thrilling hand lovers: a slight less than 1/3 of the time the final decision will be made by two additional cards.
    An awful situation when there are two active bets on either side made by eternity flashing the cards players.
    For unknown reasons, when we're losing at the table not having the privilege to look at cards it happens more often. 


    - Player disadvantage: 0.18%

    Player fans minds have transformed 0.18% into 0%. At worst, of course.


    - Asymmetrical hand apparition: 8.6%

    Well, Banker lovers should know that the best situation they could hope for will come out quite less than one time over ten.


    -  Banker advantage in asymmetrical situations: 15.7%

    Strangely enough, such huge edge will be regularly disappointed when we make an important bet on B side. Thus, a zero point on Player chance will magically transform into an 8 or a 9, even if there were just one or two of those cards left in the deck.
    Likewise a fantastic 3 will invariably land on a 5, Banker showing a 7; not mentioning a 4 adding to another 4 when Banker has a 4 + 3 and 31 4s where already removed from the deck.
    The power of timing.

    as.     


       

           

     

     
    Winners are simply willing to do what losers won't


    Offline tdx

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    Re: Baccarat mathematical facts
    « Reply #1 on: September 25, 2015, 07:12:59 PM »
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  • Some  more facts ;

    1. Look at any old shoe you have and up all the hands with runs of 3 or less.....most shoes will have runs of 3 or less between 65% and 90 % of the total hands in the shoe.

    For example:  PBPBPB
                         P  P B B
                         p     B
                         p     B

    There are 14 hands and only 2 hands below than the " 3" line.

    % of hands above the 3 line = 12/14 = about 85 %

    Check out some of your old shoes,,,,,some shoes are  85% to 90% above the 3 line.

    2, Next time you play, look and see which side is ahead after the first 4 cards are dealt. Whoever is ahead after the first 4 cards will win the hand between 65 % and    100 % of the time, depending on the shoe.

    Example,  Player has a 2 and a 1 total of 3.

    Banker has 2 aces for total of 2. Player will win the hand between 65 % and 100 % of the time since Player is ahead 3 to 2.

    Player has a 4 and an ace total of 5. Banker has a 2 and a 4, total of 6. Banker will win between 65% and 100 % of the time since Banker is ahead 6 to 5.

    Player has an ace and an 8 for natural 9 and banker has a 2 and a 3, total of 5. Player of course wins 100 % of the time.

    Reason is that the side which is behind has to "catch up" with the side which is ahead.

    So next time you play, just look at the first 4 cards, and if you bet Banker and Banker has a 2 and a 3 total of 5, and Player has a 4 and a 3, total of 7, get ready to chalk up another frustrating baccarat loss.

    If you would like to really beat bac, try to determine which side will be ahead after the first 4 cards and you will win  between 65% and 100% of your bets,,,,,,assuming the casino doesn't throw you out first.

    Of course, that's easier said than done.








    Offline Rolex-Watch

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    Re: Baccarat mathematical facts
    « Reply #2 on: September 25, 2015, 07:46:58 PM »
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  • Some  more facts ;

    1. Look at any old shoe you have and up all the hands with runs of 3 or less.....most shoes will have runs of 3 or less between 65% and 90 % of the total hands in the shoe.

    For example:  PBPBPB
                         P  P B B
                         p     B
                         p     B

    There are 14 hands and only 2 hands below than the " 3" line.

    % of hands above the 3 line = 12/14 = about 85 %
    Please, already mathematically shown (and well known I might add) that the streaks less than 4 make up 87.5% of all results.
    The bet selection OLD has been flogged to death for the last 20+ years,

    Quote
    Example,  Player has a 2 and a 1 total of 3.

    Banker has 2 aces for total of 2. Player will win the hand between 65 % and 100 % of the time since Player is ahead 3 to 2.
    Nonsense, two cards drawn for Player which is on 5, has an expectation of 30% of winning the hand,  the Player doesn't have a positive expectation unless it is on a 7 or more, all this information is available on the Wizard of Odds website.

    Also all this information is useless, because as far as I know, nobody is able to act after any cards are pulled, when you bet, you bet blind. 

    A load of table superstitious claptrap; here is the real deal >>  http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/3/
     

    Offline tdx

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    Re: Baccarat mathematical facts
    « Reply #3 on: September 25, 2015, 08:19:50 PM »
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  • Next time you play for real, note which side is ahead after the first 4 cards and then note which side wins the hand.

    Do your own experiment.


    Offline Rolex-Watch

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    Re: Baccarat mathematical facts
    « Reply #4 on: September 26, 2015, 04:09:15 AM »
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  • Yeah your right, I've never had a bet on the Player side and watched it decrease on the third card, it's never happened, nor does it happen much when I bet player which is on a 7 or even an 8, and only ONE CARD can stop me getting paid, the other guy is squeezing like crazy only to reveal a 1 in 13 shot, I also never play for real.

    Offline Big EZ

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    Re: Baccarat mathematical facts
    « Reply #5 on: September 26, 2015, 12:04:29 PM »
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  • tdx,

    Are you sure you should be counting natural winners or 6 vs 7 first hands into that data?

    You also have to say how original hand ties are handled in your data, as well as what happens when original side is ahead and other side draws to a tie hand. 

    Quitting while your ahead is not the same as quitting.