Forget the real outcomes, this is just a losers topic.
Instead consider this new way of playing the game adopting those words: chopping and streaking.

No news huh?

Ok.
Go on.

Chopping= hands that form short or no streaks on either side.
Even though it could appear as a weird assumption, this is the main feature of baccarat.
Now what's short?
Surely singles, surely doubles. Maybe triples. Stop!

If you have been reading my posts, you know that the average number of 3+ streaks happening on a single shoe is around 9.
Thus everybody here knows (not there) that the average number of 4+ streaks is around 4.5.

Streaking=hands that tend to form 3+ streaks.

Every fkn single shoe in the universe will present a given amount of chopping situations and a given amount of streaking situations.
Well, a whole streaking shoe won't be produced by any means except if one or more streaks are so long that chopping won't have any room to appear.
Conversely, if you have your last bucks to spend I reckon you'll wait some favourable situations to bet on chopping patterns as they surely as hell will happen along the way.

Curiously, chopping and streaking will appear at various degrees per every shoe dealt.
The probability of average chopping/streaking occurence knowing what happened so far in the shoe was deeply studied by your "hero" :-)

Actually an english team discovered this bac flaw several years ago. They have destroyed and are continuing to destroy many casinos. What's their strenght?
They know the shoes to attack and which shoes to let it go.
Ironically they made most money at Ritz casino in London and everybody knows the Phil Ivey story. PI wasn't payed, they did.   

So rule #1.

Not every shoe is beatable by a high degree of confidence. And they need it.

Then rule #2.

A progression is worth if applied on multiple same situations coming out on different shoes and whether such betting spots are considered worth of betting. It's just an accelerator.

Rule #3

Progressions can only work if multilayered conceived and never by a linear progression.


Ranges.

Trying to guess right every hand or most hands dealt is a silly losing operation. We simply can't.
Better to play a winning range where we need just one hand to be ahead.

Say we want to get any streak in a given spot. And say we want to apply a 1-2-4 progression.
To lose we must cross a 3 singles apparition. It could happen but by a careful assessment of what happened so far the probability may be easily lowered to 11% or so. And the average apparition is 12.5%.

The same, even better, if we want to discount the spots where a 4+ streak will happen.
Again, we just need a 14% or so probability to win.

Baccarat is beatable right on the same field the house will rely upon: tiny edges infinitely working.

I'll come back soon on more topics.

as.

 I agree what you say above.  I'll look forward to next post.  Just a footnote now. Yes I guess BUT I "key" off the chops.  The chops tend to crowd out the streaks as you say.  I use the 1's only.  If they have been average by the quarter shoe I don't expect much long streaks - until the second half when card composition often changes due to certain denomination depletion.

Quote from: Jimske on November 21, 2018, 03:02:54 AM
I use the 1's only.  If they have been average by the quarter shoe I don't expect much long streaks - until the second half when card composition often changes due to certain denomination depletion.

That's interesting.
Do you want to say something more on that?

as.

Asym,

It all boils down to, how many times the 'event' (whatever it might be) happens and the players catches it, sees it, or capitalizes on it.

Many will attempt to turn all that around and convert it all into math, stats, patterns and trends, etc.  Which cannot be accurately done.

Non of them will consistently reoccur within any set parameters, no matter how a person tries to run the theory. 

Better understanding of that and the game is experience.  The problem for most is the lack of funds to their continual depleting of what they believe is the ideal bank roll or buy-in, etc.

Personally I can make huge amounts of profit on a 7 or 10 or 14 chop-chop streak or a 12 repeating P or B streak in a row, as well 8 times (16 hands) doubles or anyone of countless other events.  The problem lies in between those events and profitable times as to each of our 'cooling off' periods and how we each handle those.  Almost all the time, people cannot cool off or stop playing and thus the disaster will strike.  Probably 99.98 to 99.99.9% of the times players win.  IMO and Experience.

Again, problem being, player observation, awareness, beliefs and betting decision to coincide with events that are happening.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on November 21, 2018, 09:09:21 AM
That's interesting.
Do you want to say something more on that?

as.

No because I am digesting.    And I got to go.  Later.

Al, of course your post provides important informations

Almost all the time, people cannot cool off or stop playing and thus the disaster will strike.  Probably 99.98 to 99.99.9% of the times players win.  IMO and Experience.


This part is of extraordinary importance.

Bac players lose a lot more than expected by math as they want to recover too rapidly.
Or simply they want to recover trying to guess the unguessable.
They start betting side bets when losing and actually they should do right the opposite.

Simply put, people win less on positive patterns and lose more on negative ones.
In reality the sum is always zero (plus the vig burden).

Back to topics.

Every random game is formed by streaks and singles, the same about baccarat regarding the quality of the hands (not the results).
The exact points evaluation don't add anything worth of it; it's too complex and quite unreliable for the volatlity impact.

People emphasizes positively or negatively when "miracles" decide the hand outcome.
They shout with joy when their bet on player 4 catches a third card 7 and banker with 5 catches another 5. They win with 1 vs zero but they should be unhappy as they have totally mistaken which side to bet on. In fact P 4 - B 5 is one of the best opportunities to get an advantage (on B, of course).
Miracles (there are tons of them) are just a very small part of the total happenings at baccarat. And they tend to alter the general flow of probabilities very rarely.
They seem to do but they do not. Forget the hands won or lost by miracles. They tend to confuse.

Regarding the quality of initial 4-card hands we have four main fields to register singles or streaks at either side:

natural/standing points  -one side
drawing points  -one side
P drawing/ B standing 3-4-5-6 (asym hand) -both sides
P drawing/ B drawing

The very best player in the universe is the person capable to get the P draw/ B standing 3-4-5-6 situation at least one time over 8-9 attempts (mathematically it's about 1/11). Naturally he will bet always Banker.

The second best player in the world is the player capable to get a drawing hand on P side at least 73-75% of the times. Again he's going to wager Banker.

The third best player is the Player bettor capable to get at least 45% of the time a standing/natural hand.

Period.

You'll notice that the worst option we could have at baccarat is to get a drawing/drawing situation. It's true that if we bet P side we are playing a zero edge game but we are in huge trouble if we are wagering B (as it's payed 0.95:1 or prone to get some taxed hands as F-7, etc).

So not everytime a P drawing hand is good for Banker. Fortunately the pure B drawing hands are few (0, 1 and 2); 3,4,5,6 elicit the precious asym situation and 7,8 and 9 stand.

Fast is fine but accuracy is everything (Wyatt Earp)

At baccarat we'll win itlr only if we are able to catch the various flows (S, D, N, etc) that advantage mathematically one side.
Easy to see that it's impossible to be accurate playing every hand or most hands. It's like to admit that we are able to catch every single flow happening at the table.

Therefore now we can rely upon two different levels of thinking and classification: results and quality of the first initial points.
Sometimes those two levels collide and those are the best opportunities to put a real wager.

By now we have talked about first four initial cards. But also the third card plays a huge, albeit secondary, role.
Next time.

as.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on November 21, 2018, 09:09:21 AM
That's interesting.
Do you want to say something more on that?

as.

Singles rule the shoe.  Are the singles consistent? 

If no singles OR if all singles chop at least once OR if all singles stay solitary then bet every hand and easy to win every shoe.     But above seldom happens.  But can happen for sections of the shoe.

If we can guess or predict what happens when a singleton occurs we can win easily.  The repeats?  Go for long runs - or not.  Bet them "longest gone" or "longer still"  (where's the Gr8 one?) or not.

Don't want to bet a lot of hands?  Bet for follow or chop one time all shoe long.  Let the rest go.

Proper betting, MM, discipline, patience.  Variance goes both ways. 

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Thanks Jimskie!!!

After all singles provide less issues than streaks. A single is a single, streaks are of many kinds.
I mean that if we hope to get an initial streak, we should be happy to win the first hand. If we keep flat betting the streak, we need at least a streak of three to be ahead providing we continue to wager the streak until it stops.

Third card flow.

Everybody has noticed that more often than not  third cards greatly helps or totally not the player side. Sometimes miracles happen but they do not alter too much the shoe texture.
The same, this time more easy to understand, when player is standing and banker is drawing a third card. Obviously we do not want to find ourselves in such situation.

Remember that from a general point of view, a third card is a helpful card more often than not.
Asians like to shout "monkey" when they are betting a possible not drawing banker and waiting for the third card to show up, but they forget that the probability to get a monkey is "just" 30.76%.
Thus nearly 70% of the times they are dog to see what they wish to see.

Of course a third card could be an 8 or 9 or an high card damaging the Player or Banker hand. Or this card is going to make an unbeatable or hugely favorite P hand. Banker has the advantage to act after Player but it has no gain to draw if P is standing.

So how to consider a third card as good or bad from a player or banker perspective?

First, when playing baccarat we shouldn't want to see a third card falling on the side we are betting into.

If it happens we are losing money, except when we catch the quite rare pure drawing-drawing situations and we're betting P side.

When betting P side we want a standing point, when we are betting B side we want P drawing and B having any point different from 0, 1 or 2.

Nonetheless, third card has a sort of natural flow in direction to either help or not the side we are betting into.

Most people don't focus enough on third card nature as a large part of outcomes is decided by first four initial cards.

More later.

as.












 




 







     

Quote from: alrelax on November 21, 2018, 03:52:47 PM
Asym,

It all boils down to, how many times the 'event' (whatever it might be) happens and the players catches it, sees it, or capitalizes on it.

Many will attempt to turn all that around and convert it all into math, stats, patterns and trends, etc.  Which cannot be accurately done.

Non of them will consistently reoccur within any set parameters, no matter how a person tries to run the theory. 

Better understanding of that and the game is experience.  The problem for most is the lack of funds to their continual depleting of what they believe is the ideal bank roll or buy-in, etc.

Personally I can make huge amounts of profit on a 7 or 10 or 14 chop-chop streak or a 12 repeating P or B streak in a row, as well 8 times (16 hands) doubles or anyone of countless other events.  The problem lies in between those events and profitable times as to each of our 'cooling off' periods and how we each handle those.  Almost all the time, people cannot cool off or stop playing and thus the disaster will strike.  Probably 99.98 to 99.99.9% of the times players win.  IMO and Experience.

Again, problem being, player observation, awareness, beliefs and betting decision to coincide with events that are happening.

I don't want to change the theme of this thread but I'll comment anyway.  So one could say just flat bet or no bet until such a time when a "possibility" or pattern or streak exists than bet and if win first one or two bets keep bumping up hoping for those "infrequents" to continue.  Say double up or UAYW Fibonacci as example.

Seems plausible but those "in betweens" may very well out number the big wins.

Quote from: Jimske on November 23, 2018, 06:38:56 PM
I don't want to change the theme of this thread but I'll comment anyway.  So one could say just flat bet or no bet until such a time when a "possibility" or pattern or streak exists than bet and if win first one or two bets keep bumping up hoping for those "infrequents" to continue.  Say double up or UAYW Fibonacci as example.

Seems plausible but those "in betweens" may very well out number the big wins.

"Seems plausible but those "in betweens" may very well out number the big wins. "

Yes, possibly we are on the same page here? 

Hence, you have to wager/play to make money.  Sitting there and not wagering and missing opportunities/events only frustrates and plays on the player's emotions and thought process.  Like someone standing there behind you, telling everyone what it has to be and then saying, "see I told you" or if they were wrong, "sorry, that is what I thought" and shrugging their shoulders.

But, the in-between times are 'absolute terror times' on most players or another way of saying it, 'gave back all of the win and then some' times. 

One thing about stadium at MoSun you can sit there with your IPAD and watch a movie on Netflix and just bet 5 bucks or nothing until your stuff comes up. LOL  And you can watch two games at a time!  No smoking, no yelling, no waiting for somebody to squeeze the stupid cards!  hahahaha

Quote from: Jimske on November 23, 2018, 09:53:03 PM
One thing about stadium at MoSun you can sit there with your IPAD and watch a movie on Netflix and just bet 5 bucks or nothing until your stuff comes up. LOL  And you can watch two games at a time!  No smoking, no yelling, no waiting for somebody to squeeze the stupid cards!  hahahaha

Probably another post is better to discuss pros and cons of your comment, but yes, there are two different types of play in baccarat.

Camaraderie and the original big table or even Midi/Macau style can produce larger, well coordinated wins, especially for those that gamble for that style.  Then there is most certainly the grind or the relaxed or slot machine style loner play with the newer stadium the past few years. 

Quote from: alrelax on November 23, 2018, 10:05:08 PM
Probably another post is better to discuss pros and cons of your comment, but yes, there are two different types of play in baccarat.

Camaraderie and the original big table or even Midi/Macau style can produce larger, well coordinated wins, especially for those that gamble for that style.  Then there is most certainly the grind or the relaxed or slot machine style loner play with the newer stadium the past few years.

Stadium at MoSun are regular live shoes.  Bet $5-$15,000.00

Asym,

There are many things that a player can do that will harm himself (quickly or eventually) when gambling at baccarat.  Some self-induced and others are there and never noticed by the players.

I tried to define what I wholeheartedly think can help many serious baccarat players, which is my "Sections & Turning Points" thread.

Problem is with baccarat, many on the forums here want and demand tangible, mathematical and statistical results to back up wagering.  IT DOES NOT EXIST & NEVER WILL.

There are so many paradoxical happenings and interpretations, that can be capitalized on and used in enormous profitable ways, or just used as a safeguard for players.  Open your minds and better your play. 

Although your "sections and turning points" post is very valuable, we can't forget that power of math and statistics.

For example, we know for sure that somewhere banker will produce a streak or a given amount of streaks. There's no way that a given shoe will produce just one B streak, but we surely know that very rare given shoes won't produce a P single.
The answer is easy: streaks consume a well more room than singles but B side is more prone to produce streaks as it's more likely to happen.

Say we want to bet a very complicated and hyper selected strategic plan oriented to lose only when a shoe won't present a P single AND at least two B streaks.
We won't lose by 1 billion accuracy.

as.