That seth cat's latest blog entry is the must read for serious cats, hey hey!
http://targetbetting.blogspot.ca/
Hey, thanks!
The caveat with Seth is always the same thing. Bailey also who maintains the same defensive strategy a necessary part of his progression concepts. That caveat is know when to quit and regroup else you'll end up way over your head. "Rational Self Defense" is the way Seth terms it. The necessity of this relegates the game to subjectivity. But only because of bankroll and max bet limitations. Nevertheless, that's our reality which precludes any truly sure win mechanical method.
Seth, "Money management is the key, and the key depends on discipline and consistency."
Enter tight, or nearly flat bet play. (Like Gr8's 7 step cancellation prog for example). It's all the same! MM and discipline are required to win. One could win the same amount of $ using tight or deep progression. Just depends on the unit size.
No matter what we choose one thing is clear, deep prog or tight play we are NOT going to get back losses with small bets!
Baccarat is a betting and guessing game.
J
So what else is new: "Bet Big while you are doing good, bet small while you are not doing good"
QuoteAfter an opening loss, bet 5x the previous bet (PB).
After a second loss, bet PB/2 and do the same after a third loss.
If losses continue, repeat the bet (NB=PB) until a win, then apply the LTD+ rule.
After an opening win, bet 2x (NB=PBx2), and keep doing that after each successive win until the bet hits $200.
When the win progression (WP) x2 limit is reached, NB=PB+$100 until a loss ends the winning streak.
When an opening winning streak ends with a loss, NB= the lesser of PBx2 or PB+$100 and LTD=PB.
If losses continue, freeze the bet (NB=PB) and continue doing so until a win calls for the LTD+TGT rule.
Doubled wins (meaning any wins greater than the value of the original bet) do not affect the NB value, but doubled losses change the NB value to match the prior loss (-1, -1, -1, -1x2, -2, -2, -2x3, -6 and so on).
After a push (about 9.0% of all bets at blackjack), double the bet (NB=PBx2) to a maximum added value of $100, and do the same after a dealer natural except if a 2x bet would be due anyway (see above), in which case, add $100 (NB=PB+$100) on top of the doubled value. Treat any dealer 21 as a push, and respond accordingly.
I'll try again. Every rules based system will run right into a perfect sequence that will kill it. Fixed rules is a Sucker's bet.
---------------
QuoteBottom line: If you bet randomly, you will probably lose; If you bet progressively, using a consistent strategy that includes rational self defense, you probably won't. The casinos know this, and you should too.
I couldn't agree, IMO. I've already explained Randomness.
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 28, 2016, 12:22:49 PM
So what else is new: "Bet Big while you are doing good, bet small while you are not doing good"
I'll try again. Every rules based system will run right into a perfect sequence that will kill it. Fixed rules is a Sucker's bet.
---------------
I couldn't agree, IMO. I've already explained Randomness.
No balls, no bankroll, no shot, it is that simple, hey hey.
Bet more win more. I consistently play better bigger, but I will take the following any day:
- Easy progression.
- Strong table with professional drivers.
In any one try at a progression, if you win one and bet the right way you could have a lot of upside with the worst case being a slight setback or back to square 1.
One day I just want to cruise the tables with some boats and have that basic win amount be a lot. I like pretty chips.
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmacaudailytimes.com.mo%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F01%2F1-BLM_HR_JPEG.222030102.jpg&hash=4457f15d31914ea04ecab39873061dbfb886938f)
Quote from: 21 Aces on April 29, 2016, 12:32:19 AM
but I will take the following any day:
- Easy progression.
- Strong table with professional drivers.
I have no idea where you play or the length of time at the table of the 'professional drivers' or how long they played. But in my years of playing, A.C.; Vegas; Reno; Southern CA; South FL; Midwest; and CT, the more professional and the longer they play, they are just as common to lose as everyone else and even more so. Yes there are spectacular plays and short times a 'pro' wins, but personally, I would wager my short term quick payoff money on the newbie and the guy that sits down and has absolutely no idea what the game is about.
Following anyone consistently is a great way to always lose, watch how often those people are changing their money and repeated buy-ins.
Quote from: 21 Aces on April 29, 2016, 12:32:19 AM
One day I just want to cruise the tables with some boats...
Quote from: alrelax on April 29, 2016, 12:32:19 PM
I would wager my short term quick payoff money on the newbie and the guy that sits down and has absolutely no idea what the game is about.
We are all lost at sea then..
Quote from: soxfan on April 29, 2016, 12:26:37 AM
No balls, no bankroll, no shot, it is that simple, hey hey.
Any programmer can sim the rules and prove it's a losing proposition. If you have balls prove me wrong. Hey Hey!
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 29, 2016, 03:05:14 PM
Any programmer can sim the rules and prove it's a losing proposition. If you have balls prove me wrong. Hey Hey!
he has already stated he uses discretion which cannot be programmed.......IMO, he is a recreational player.
Someone may ask why i think that and I will tell you why. If you had a system, something like he says he has had for 30 YEARS, why would you be on an internet forum unless you are just sad and lonely? Do you get your jollies off telling people you make x amount, etc? It don't add up. 2+2=4, not 5. Something smells...
Again, you could build your roll, travel the world, go to macau with the BIGGEST limits and be on your way...Instead, constantly posting and ranting about the clown seth who bets with an imaginary 5000 units and unlimited bankroll...
Nah, i don't believe it....
Quote from: marinetech on April 29, 2016, 03:17:30 PM
he has already stated he uses discretion which cannot be programmed.......IMO, he is a recreational player.
Someone may ask why i think that and I will tell you why. If you had a system, something like he says he has had for 30 YEARS, why would you be on an internet forum unless you are just sad and lonely? Do you get your jollies off telling people you make x amount, etc? It don't add up. 2+2=4, not 5. Something smells...
Again, you could build your roll, travel the world, go to macau with the BIGGEST limits and be on your way...Instead, constantly posting and ranting about the clown seth who bets with an imaginary 5000 units and unlimited bankroll...
Nah, i don't believe it....
That's it, recreational player. I just said what I did not to offend him but to warn others that might fall for it. A complete and full explanation of his discretionary tactics might save this discussion and it would be very interesting to hear what he has to say. Hey Hey!
Quote from: marinetech on April 29, 2016, 03:17:30 PM
he has already stated he uses discretion which cannot be programmed.......IMO, he is a recreational player.
Someone may ask why i think that and I will tell you why. If you had a system, something like he says he has had for 30 YEARS, why would you be on an internet forum unless you are just sad and lonely? Do you get your jollies off telling people you make x amount, etc? It don't add up. 2+2=4, not 5. Something smells...
Again, you could build your roll, travel the world, go to macau with the BIGGEST limits and be on your way...Instead, constantly posting and ranting about the clown seth who bets with an imaginary 5000 units and unlimited bankroll...
Nah, i don't believe it....
Nice to see that the john-O has made the scene, again, hey hey.
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 29, 2016, 04:50:27 PM
That's it, recreational player. I just said what I did not to offend him but to warn others that might fall for it.
This is funny! So is calling someone a "recreational player" supposed to be some kind of put down? Or are you trying to say that you are the "real" pro?
And fall for what exactly? That you got to be a disciplined skillful player to win this game?
Can we please get Aces21 and Alrelax in on this thread? I'm a little bored today and I need some more fun stuff.
J
Come on Aces - I'm sure you got a few gems!
Quote from: alrelax on April 29, 2016, 12:32:19 PM
I have no idea where you play or the length of time at the table of the 'professional drivers' or how long they played. But in my years of playing, A.C.; Vegas; Reno; Southern CA; South FL; Midwest; and CT, the more professional and the longer they play, they are just as common to lose as everyone else and even more so. Yes there are spectacular plays and short times a 'pro' wins, but personally, I would wager my short term quick payoff money on the newbie and the guy that sits down and has absolutely no idea what the game is about.
Following anyone consistently is a great way to always lose, watch how often those people are changing their money and repeated buy-ins.
I got to agree, Al! LOL - yeah really, no kidding. Aces hasn't figured that out yet.
It's anecdotal but yeah pretty amazing how many times you see some totally fresh player walk up and score good not having a clue! hehehehe
HAHA that is rich. You guys are that weak that you actually want to find someone who has never played and follow them because they have beginner luck? :))
The fact of the matter is that you can piggy back on any one player or players regardless of tenure. Something about baccarat that is completely lost on poker players. Hey a hot hand is a hot hand... Over the past couple days, I have had floor managers, dealers, and other players go out of there way to say a little something or do things that really helped me get through some very, very crappy situations.
These observations can be made in any arena where money is put at risk...
Excuse me, I want to see how good I am at baccarat and whether I can teach someone easily. Want to try?
(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gannett-cdn.com%2F-mm-%2F1ba1b1689c4156da9483836da3aac515a5f87980%2Fc%3D274-0-2400-1598%26amp%3Br%3Dx513%26amp%3Bc%3D680x510%2Flocal%2F-%2Fmedia%2FUSATODAY%2FUSATODAY%2F2014%2F01%2F24%2F%2F1390581434000-Club-Palms-Card-2014-125-RGB.JPG&hash=8c88acbf4ed7fba9f68856732ef88891dceba1c1)
Quote from: soxfan on April 29, 2016, 07:27:30 PM
Nice to see that the john-O has made the scene, again, hey hey.
Rest assured I am not your pal johnno. You think that anyone who says something contrary to what you say is someone out to get you? I think that is called paranoia...
I don't think you are a scammer because you are not selling anything. I just don't think you are what you say you are. Its that simple. This is the internet and you can say you have trillions and have 15 supermodels at your disposal. Cool, great story.
But, you hang in a forum and make outrageous (and UNPROVEN) claims that you are a big winner for 30+ years and have to have balls to win and bet, etc, etc.....
You toot your horn but provide 0 substance.....
Already tested Seth's method.........and it tanked. http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15786.msg136479#msg136479 (http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15786.msg136479#msg136479)
If you read the blog carefully, you'll notice that eventually he claims that you will get to the 5000 unit loss, and then just try to win more than you lose to get back to even.........because it's due (wish I had a dollar for every time I heard that one).
Seth also claims that you should move to another table when things turn south..........but also claims that moving tables doesn't matter in the long run. This is called invisible compromise........used to slip out of a logical argument when you're losing.
Even in early testing of the most Conservative approach he suggests.........I hit the 5000 unit ceiling many times.
The major red flag, which should be apparent to anyone reading his material.........is where is his proof of winning ??? For a guy who loves charts........you would think he would have a few cash-out receipts laying around to show off.
from the blog :
"Whenever you feel uncomfortable or threatened in a given location, move and take your NB/LTD numbers to a new layout ("the math" will be unaffected).".
"Anyone who has ever gambled in a casino for more than an hour or two knows the value of taking a break when a prolonged losing streak sets in, and listening to a combination of experience and gut feelings that signal when a change of scene is needed."
You heard it here first..........use your "gut feeling" and you'll be fine!!! :no:
Seth is another piker. A lonely fool who bets infinite money and claims he can beat the casinos and sports betting!!! LMAO! As the law stated, where is some proof, any proof? In todays day and age, you need proof. Otherwise, a talker is just that, A TALKER!!!!!!
Time for me to get on the private jet and head to macau, me and bilzerian have a casino to take down and a bunch of groupies to join us for the longggg trip. Carry on now, HEY HEY!!
Quote from: greenguy on April 29, 2016, 01:24:36 PM
We are all lost at sea then..
Short term, quick payoff money---means; Say I wagered $300 and won and then pressed it and won again. The winnings would turn into be my 'short-term quick payoff money'. BTW, at least in my experiences, there is nothing better than a fresh newbie sitting down at a table full of seasoned 'pros' losing their behind. I would not think twice to follow the newbie if he started winning. Happens all the darn time! Seen their $25 or $50 or even $100 against four-five-six players wagering thousands a hand. Somehow, just works out that the newbie will smack the casino for numerous hands. Guess it's the casinos way to suck in new meat, but actually does happen all the time. That is what I was referring to.
Quote from: alrelax on April 29, 2016, 10:18:23 PM
Short term, quick payoff money---means; Say I wagered $300 and won and then pressed it and won again. The winnings would turn into be my 'short-term quick payoff money'. BTW, at least in my experiences, there is nothing better than a fresh newbie sitting down at a table full of seasoned 'pros' losing their behind. I would not think twice to follow the newbie if he started winning. Happens all the darn time! Seen their $25 or $50 or even $100 against four-five-six players wagering thousands a hand. Somehow, just works out that the newbie will smack the casino for numerous hands. Guess it's the casinos way to suck in new meat, but actually does happen all the time. That is what I was referring to.
Maybe you're gonna be my new BFF! Just kidding. When you play as much as you have (and I have) you do see this but really? Not very often. It's just that it sticks in your mind when you do see it.
This happened a couple of weeks ago in fact. This "kid" sits down with $100.00. Playing 2 green and bumping and hitting nearly every hand. In no time he is up a thousand bucks! LMAO. Everyone else is doing there thing and well, doing okay, struggling - there is nothing on the board that is shouting out "take the rack." He loses a few hands and then goes all in. He is "home alone" and of course he wins!
He is next to me and I says, "Look, it's none of my business but let me pretend you're my son. Put something in your pocket and walk with that at least. The chandeliers are not being paid by winners." He makes a few more smaller bets, loses and leaves. Good.
But we all know it's the exception - not the rule!
Quote from: 21 Aces on April 29, 2016, 07:58:22 PM
HAHA that is rich. You guys are that weak that you actually want to find someone who has never played and follow them because they have beginner luck? :))
The fact of the matter is that you can piggy back on any one player or players regardless of tenure. Something about baccarat that is completely lost on poker players. Hey a hot hand is a hot hand... Over the past couple days, I have had floor managers, dealers, and other players go out of there way to say a little something or do things that really helped me get through some very, very crappy situations.
These observations can be made in any arena where money is put at risk...
Excuse me, I want to see how good I am at baccarat and whether I can teach someone easily. Want to try?
See, I knew you had it in you! It's the "old hot hand" syndrome. And if that doesn't work out then just ask one of the pit critters to give you some advice!
Amazing how that casino he supposedly plays in even says in business!
Ahhh, hey Aces, you're gonna have to do a bit more than tell people to follow the hot hand an ask the pit waht to do if you want to teach people how to play! But why teach when you can jsut quit your job and go to that casino ATM machine?
I love this site!
Quote from: marinetech on April 29, 2016, 09:07:48 PM
But, you hang in a forum and make outrageous (and UNPROVEN) claims that you are a big winner for 30+ years and have to have balls to win and bet, etc, etc.....
You toot your horn but provide 0 substance.....
I NEVER claimed to have been winning at the baccarats for 30+ years. So, it seems that you, like the john-O/mr.tilt have a reading comprehension problem, hey hey.
Quote from: Jimske on April 29, 2016, 11:50:12 PM
See, I knew you had it in you! It's the "old hot hand" syndrome. And if that doesn't work out then just ask one of the pit critters to give you some advice!
Amazing how that casino he supposedly plays in even says in business!
Ahhh, hey Aces, you're gonna have to do a bit more than tell people to follow the hot hand an ask the pit waht to do if you want to teach people how to play! But why teach when you can jsut quit your job and go to that casino ATM machine?
I love this site!
I already posted an s load if you would bother to read under several other threads. I have enough skill to go pro, but it's been a difficult week which has included a personal best. One losing day since the beginning of March, but I see my game as weak right now.
- Bet size out of control at times.
- Strike rate from very poor to very good.
- Play duration pushing the limit.
- Having to win back.
- Missing some high payout bets.
Solid play is commanding
- Controlled bet sizing always.
- Strike rate decent to very good.
- On or ahead of schedule as far as play time.
- Building a small lead and building on that lead and playing defensively ahead to close out.
- Hitting Bank/ Player and high payout bets because you are on it and even if nobody else bets same you do not give one F.
C'mon there is nothing better than doing well with the entire table and then it's like a team and everybody is winning and cheering and calling out all the lucky ways to describe the game. Then it's like at full clip and your just along for the ride.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfOD2y_AD_w
I never stated that I ask dealers or floor managers what bet to make or how much, but they know how everyone is doing and when they take time out to put in an encouraging word it does make a difference. Maybe they just like me and not you.
:nod:
Quote from: 21 Aces on April 30, 2016, 12:05:07 AMI already posted an s load if you would bother to read under several other threads. I have enough skill to go pro, but it's been a difficult week which has included a personal best. One losing day since the beginning of March, but I see my game as weak right now.
I have read a s load of vague nonsense! That's why I tune in! The hits keep coming!
Since the beginning of March, huh? What happened Dec, Jan, and Feb? Weren't following the hot hand then? :))
QuoteI never stated that I ask dealers or floor managers what bet to make or how much, but they know how everyone is doing and when they take time out to put in an encouraging word it does make a difference. Maybe they just like me and not you.
Awwww! The encouraging word! Heheheh. It's like one happy family! Yeah they're all friendly enough. Why shouldn't they be? They like everybody. It's there job!
Been playing since March and ready to go pro? Keep us informed!
J
- Started in late November.
- Had some losing days and very memorable difficult times, but winning on a net basis through that time frame all in.
- Would almost exclusively go Friday, Saturday, and Sunday - now I play a lot more. 3 vs. 5-7 days/ week is a big difference. I'm at max schedule.
- Preparation
- Domination Anticipation
- Dragons
- Natural 8's and 9's, Win Margins, and Ties
Quote from: soxfan on April 29, 2016, 11:54:27 PM
I NEVER claimed to have been winning at the baccarats for 30+ years. So, it seems that you, like the john-O/mr.tilt have a reading comprehension problem, hey hey.
Listen, I don't know you, don't care to but you always make it seem like you win and win often. You claim you need a progression and have BIG BALLS, etc, etc. But, again, that is all you do, talk......and talk......and talk........sort of like asym does. You guys must be related because you talk a really big game but neither of you provide anything. zip. zilch. nada.
I guess I don't get it but i don't have to. Again, i have no problems with you, I don't know you but I have a problem with people who claim they make "cake", but never disclose the ingredients. To me, that is someone who loves the attention. Hey, look at me! I bet big and I use longggggg progressions and use DEEP pockets. SO WHAT??????
Whoever johno is or the other guy, maybe you are obsessed with them. I could care less about either one. Carry on...
It's difficult because certain undisclosed real world considerations provide incentive not to document performance. Not sure what those are though. :whistle:
Quote from: Jimske on April 29, 2016, 07:38:09 PM
And fall for what exactly? That you got to be a disciplined skillful player to win this game?
Skill was not enough; I had to get out of my own way. Accepting a reasonable expectation was the only way for me to stop feeding the chimp, as at least one here has explained it. If I get my win streak early at a casino I'll play on for a second win streak. If the win streak takes hours to come then I leave when the win streak ends. I've got the skill to leave when enough is enough. I'm never exposed so DEEP that I need a miracle on the next spin or I don't have the balls. Speaking of balls, I climbed many of the great walls in Yosemite, skied off Mt Shasta's North Face, flew an airplane down the face of Half Dome, SCUBA dived to 200 ft deep in Lake Tahoe in February, and Windsurfed 23ft tall waves in 35 mile per hour wind under the Golden Gate Bridge, not mentioning many other ballsy adventures, that's not including many careers and capabilities. So suggesting that it takes balls to use progressions to me, after becoming a computer programmer and testing every mechanical rule based idea ever explained, including the one from this thread that suggests that it can't be programmed is like saying it doesn't take brains.
It takes brains to win as a skillful player. Much of smart play comes from many years of not playing smart and making recreational gambler mistakes.
Check out the chemical dependency and the area of the brain that shuts down when anyone becomes a problem or addicted gambler. It takes smarts.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-brain-gets-addicted-to-gambling/
QuoteEven more compelling, neuroscientists have learned that drugs and gambling alter many of the same brain circuits in similar ways. These insights come from studies of blood flow and electrical activity in people's brains as they complete various tasks on computers that either mimic casino games or test their impulse control. ...
A 2005 German study using such a card game suggests problem gamblers—like drug addicts—have lost sensitivity to their high: when winning, subjects had lower than typical electrical activity in a key region of the brain's reward system. In a 2003 study at Yale University and a 2012 study at the University of Amsterdam, pathological gamblers taking tests that measured their impulsivity had unusually low levels of electrical activity in prefrontal brain regions that help people assess risks and suppress instincts. Drug addicts also often have a listless prefrontal cortex.
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 30, 2016, 01:53:31 PM
It takes brains to win as a skillful player. Much of smart play comes from many years of not playing smart and making recreational gambler mistakes.
It takes smarts.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-brain-gets-addicted-to-gambling/
But it is the same in many many different aspects of professions and hobbies.
I was in heavy wrecker and recovery for many years, so very true! Damages that could have been avoided, and unintelligent mistakes and costly ones, ones that cost tens of thousands and also hundreds of thousands of dollars!!!!! But the best of the best learns from their mistakes and mishaps and move forward, applies their mistakes and learned wisdoms. The list is endless!
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 30, 2016, 01:53:31 PM
>>>>>>>>>>Skill was not enough;<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
>>>>>>>>Much of smart play comes from many years of not playing smart<<<<<<<<<<<<.
If one has not been there---that person most likely will NOT KNOW where to tread or don't tread.
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 29, 2016, 04:50:27 PM
That's it, recreational player. I just said what I did not to offend him but to warn others that might fall for it. A complete and full explanation of his discretionary tactics might save this discussion and it would be very interesting to hear what he has to say. Hey Hey!
I'm still asking "fall for what?" The guy gave his parlay method and stated that he getting an overall win using it.
Any deep progression is going to win a huge percentage of trials (shoes). I ran some basic tests against this using a mechanical selection and it showed an 85% shoe win rate which, given the depth of the prog, seems pretty reasonable. Problem is it seems you need at least 90% to profit from it because at 85% it lost.
So obviously key off something you like but expect to make some subjective adjustments.
So what's he trying to get you to fall for?
J
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 30, 2016, 01:53:31 PM
Check out the chemical dependency and the area of the brain that shuts down when anyone becomes a problem or addicted gambler. It takes smarts.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-brain-gets-addicted-to-gambling/
Important read. IMO it is the very rare person who is gambling regular and not affected by the chemical changes that go on while playing. Add the psychological environment (lighting, sound, color, etc.) and it is easy to succumb particularly if fatigue sets in.
I have witnessed the "chimp" take over my play a few times myself. Fortunately for me these times have been few and far between. But I am aware of the danger and use deliberate mechanisms to consciously prevent such.
I haven't had such numerous ballsy experiences as you but several ocean sailing experiences like a de-masting and caught in 50' waves in the gulf stream come close. I only mention these to say that the gambling experience is a lot different. We go the casino on purpose knowing the elements. When we undertake an adventure it is not expected that we will be in serious life threatening harms way.
Maybe a lot of people go to the casino for a thrill. Maybe you do. I don't. I don't go for fun.
J
Quote from: marinetech on April 30, 2016, 02:36:11 AM
Whoever johno is or the other guy, maybe you are obsessed with them. I could care less about either one. Carry on...
No worries, the john-O-theclown-mr.tilt is just a senile old loser coconut, anyway. The boy blew his credibility on the wizard forum a while back, but at the least he still provide some entertainment values, hey hey.
Quote from: soxfan on April 29, 2016, 11:54:27 PM
I NEVER claimed to have been winning at the baccarats for 30+ years. So, it seems that you, like the john-O/mr.tilt have a reading comprehension problem, hey hey.
Sounds like you need go eat some potatoes mick
Quote from: TheLaw on April 29, 2016, 09:34:33 PM
Already tested Seth's method.........and it tanked. http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15786.msg136479#msg136479 (http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15786.msg136479#msg136479)
If you read the blog carefully, you'll notice that eventually he claims that you will get to the 5000 unit loss, and then just try to win more than you lose to get back to even.........because it's due (wish I had a dollar for every time I heard that one).
Seth also claims that you should move to another table when things turn south..........but also claims that moving tables doesn't matter in the long run. This is called invisible compromise........used to slip out of a logical argument when you're losing.
Even in early testing of the most Conservative approach he suggests.........I hit the 5000 unit ceiling many times.
The major red flag, which should be apparent to anyone reading his material.........is where is his proof of winning ??? For a guy who loves charts........you would think he would have a few cash-out receipts laying around to show off.
Well done, Sturgis is a fake
Quote from: marinetech on April 30, 2016, 02:36:11 AM
Listen, I don't know you, don't care to but you always make it seem like you win and win often. You claim you need a progression and have BIG BALLS, etc, etc. But, again, that is all you do, talk......and talk......and talk........sort of like asym does. You guys must be related because you talk a really big game but neither of you provide anything. zip. zilch. nada.
I guess I don't get it but i don't have to. Again, i have no problems with you, I don't know you but I have a problem with people who claim they make "cake", but never disclose the ingredients. To me, that is someone who loves the attention. Hey, look at me! I bet big and I use longggggg progressions and use DEEP pockets. SO WHAT??????
Whoever johno is or the other guy, maybe you are obsessed with them. I could care less about either one. Carry on...
Finally somebody else sees through the BS and can read between the lines of our habitual 5 year old, bulldog being fed, cake, gravel, stones, balls, low stakes online play > dublinbet, LOL, HEY HEY
Quote from: MarkTeruya on May 01, 2016, 01:33:12 PM
Finally somebody else sees through the BS and can read between the lines of our habitual 5 year old, bulldog being fed, cake, gravel, stones, balls, low stakes online play > dublinbet, LOL, HEY HEY
Good to see the john-o the clown show back on the air, hey hey!
Marinetech asked why are winning players even here or something to that effect. The answer is. . . . old friends coming together for some entertaining chit chat . . . priceless!
Let me add; how long have we all been going back and forth now? Has it been over ten years now?
Quote from: soxfan on May 01, 2016, 02:38:11 PM
Good to see the john-o the clown show back on the air, hey hey!
I'll acquaint your ignorance to "lack of starch" in the gene pool somewhere down the line. Do keep extending that progression though, that's the spirit, aha aha.
Quote from: Jimske on May 01, 2016, 01:12:51 AM
I'm still asking "fall for what?" The guy gave his parlay method and stated that he getting an overall win using it.
Any deep progression is going to win a huge percentage of trials (shoes). I ran some basic tests against this using a mechanical selection and it showed an 85% shoe win rate which, given the depth of the prog, seems pretty reasonable. Problem is it seems you need at least 90% to profit from it because at 85% it lost.
So obviously key off something you like but expect to make some subjective adjustments.
So what's he trying to get you to fall for?
J
I guess, like Aces21, I'm going to have to talk to myself since nobody wants to discuss the prog soxfan has put forth with any kind of objectivity.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20. 12 step. Winning 2 IAR isn't all that hard but can be devastating if you can't reach 90%. But one could work up to giving it a go with a much smaller bankroll by using MM and a stutter within the progression to extend it. Of course by reducing the escalation we will also reduce our profit potential but a win is a win.
I think it was The Law who was chagrined over the fact that soxfan did not lead him to a winning bet selection. Well, IMO, there is none. But any one you choose will hit 85%. I can't prove it. That's a guess. Maybe some of you math guys will give it a go. Just use some follow the shoe placement. I hope you guys can figure something like that out by now. Use NOR or Pitboss, whatever.
So the first thing you do, Law, is learn to recognize the nemesis. Should be pretty easy. That's when you got to switch to and stop, guess, another placement. In the meantime you use the stutter move to cut back the progression when a) you don't want to risk too many of the units you already won or b) you are really in trouble and you need to expand the prog from 12 to 13 or even 14 steps. Some of this MM will just bring you back to even or just cut your losses to a recoverable level. You'll have to decide when and where to do that. I'm not going to spoon feed you but here's an example.
You lose 11112 and are now down 6 units. So you flat bet the 2 once, twice, whatever and then go into the 3-4-6 etc. Once you get your back to back win you re-start. And you don't necessarily need a back to back. Maybe you win the 6 unit and just restart at 2 units. Hit the 6-2 then restart. You might be down a few units doing this but back to back should ocurr often enough to start grinding out some decent wins.
There should be plenty of shoes where you will just out and out win without risking a whole lot. Patience, discipline, build your bank. After all this IS GAMBLING - HELLO?
j
Quote from: MarkTeruya on May 02, 2016, 01:18:48 AM
I'll acquaint your ignorance to "lack of starch" in the gene pool somewhere down the line. Do keep extending that progression though, that's the spirit, aha aha.
Why don't you tell us all how many times you got clipped for 200+ units using yer super safe, flexible labby style? I'm well stocked up on cashew and Guinness so regale us, hey hey.
Seth @ Ian Harmer, while suggesting his progression forgot that with infinite bankroll and unlimited table there are hundreds of ways to win for sure. He only boasted of Oscar Grind as he suggested to be a winner without simulating his ideas himself. It seems he either lacks skills to simulate long data or trying to fool all with a method without any mathematical support or empirical evidence. I talked to him in length via emails. He just "feels" that his said method will turn casinos upside down while in reality it will do the opposite.
Imspirit.wordpress.com elaborated his method in details with correct simulations and unless we have infinite chips it has to lose as any other method. With infinite chips Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci can do the same. Check: https://imspirit.wordpress.com/tag/seth-theobeau/
This picture(courtsey imspirit) tells everything:
[attachimg=1]
I wrote a bit about his methodology in my forum here: http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400639#.VybJL_l97IU
With no table limits, anything will win.
Regarding betselection he told me:
"All that matters is that whatever single bet selection method you choose, you must stick with it without variation throughout the sample sessions.
Switching randomly from one option to another simply compounds the house advantage."
He doesn't believe in stop loss either. It clarifies that he supports an up, up away progression that can cost anybody huge drawdowns.
I like talking with myself on here.
Deep Stack:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdY8pMHVNZs
Quote from: soxfan on May 02, 2016, 03:05:38 AM
Why don't you tell us all how many times you got clipped for 200+ units using yer super safe, flexible labby style? I'm well stocked up on cashew and Guinness so regale us, hey hey.
And if Sox's approach is working for him? If it ain't broke...
Quote from: Jimske on May 02, 2016, 02:56:24 AM
I guess, like Aces21, I'm going to have to talk to myself since nobody wants to discuss the prog soxfan has put forth with any kind of objectivity.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20. 12 step. Winning 2 IAR isn't all that hard but can be devastating if you can't reach 90%. But one could work up to giving it a go with a much smaller bankroll by using MM and a stutter within the progression to extend it. Of course by reducing the escalation we will also reduce our profit potential but a win is a win.
I think it was The Law who was chagrined over the fact that soxfan did not lead him to a winning bet selection. Well, IMO, there is none. But any one you choose will hit 85%. I can't prove it. That's a guess. Maybe some of you math guys will give it a go. Just use some follow the shoe placement. I hope you guys can figure something like that out by now. Use NOR or Pitboss, whatever.
So the first thing you do, Law, is learn to recognize the nemesis. Should be pretty easy. That's when you got to switch to and stop, guess, another placement. In the meantime you use the stutter move to cut back the progression when a) you don't want to risk too many of the units you already won or b) you are really in trouble and you need to expand the prog from 12 to 13 or even 14 steps. Some of this MM will just bring you back to even or just cut your losses to a recoverable level. You'll have to decide when and where to do that. I'm not going to spoon feed you but here's an example.
You lose 11112 and are now down 6 units. So you flat bet the 2 once, twice, whatever and then go into the 3-4-6 etc. Once you get your back to back win you re-start. And you don't necessarily need a back to back. Maybe you win the 6 unit and just restart at 2 units. Hit the 6-2 then restart. You might be down a few units doing this but back to back should ocurr often enough to start grinding out some decent wins.
There should be plenty of shoes where you will just out and out win without risking a whole lot. Patience, discipline, build your bank. After all this IS GAMBLING - HELLO?
j
Good post, good advice, Jimske.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not endorsing this long, expensive parlay progression. But, that said, IF one were to play it, I do like your "stutter-step" option, whereby you effectively seek to s-l-o-w d-o-w-n this rather steep progression.
You see, there are those times that we simply cannot avoid; those times where are preferred plays simply are not working. Ain't gonna help much to load up on our bets during those times....in fact, probably much better to take your foot off off the accelerator. This, in essence, is what Jimske is alluding to with his "stutter-step" option. It is a bit similar to my "no-bet" option, where I attempt (I say "attempt"...it is not an exact science) to limit the damage when my preferred plays are "sleeping". Again, we cannot avoid, totally, those tough times, but we can (and should, as astute players) do our very best to limit the damages.
There will be plenty of time to recoup when your plays are beginning to "awaken"; it is but a matter of time. Assuming, of course, that you have the necessary patience, discipline, and desire to approach/play the game that way.
Take care, and stay well.
1-3-2-6 applied selectively and even with interruption (waiting/not consecutive hands of course) will get you a possible 12 units plus on the 4th wager, with a safety net of replenishing your bankroll with the original 2 unit risked on the second wager. Wager's 3 and 4 are original bankroll risk-free.
This becomes a reality a heck of a lot greater times than 11 and 12 parlay methods, IMO in baccarat.
Quote from: alrelax on May 02, 2016, 02:53:24 PM
1-3-2-6......
Better a 1-3-2-4....in that way, you still retain some profit even if you lose that last (and highest) bet.
Quote from: gr8player on May 02, 2016, 04:10:43 PM
Better a 1-3-2-4....in that way, you still retain some profit even if you lose that last (and highest) bet.
I do the 1-3-2-4 at times, especially when really rough and doing the unexpected every hand if I am pressed for time and still want to play. I try for the more aggressive 12 unit win with the 4th wager--6 units most of the time. Frequently if I can control myself with the length of time played, I can walk with 1 or 2 successful 1-3-2-6's or a 1-3-2-4 combined. I don't do it when I go to Vegas but at my local places I can.
Quote from: Jimske on May 02, 2016, 02:56:24 AM
I guess, like Aces21, I'm going to have to talk to myself since nobody wants to discuss the prog soxfan has put forth with any kind of objectivity.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20. 12 step. Winning 2 IAR isn't all that hard but can be devastating if you can't reach 90%. But one could work up to giving it a go with a much smaller bankroll by using MM and a stutter within the progression to extend it. Of course by reducing the escalation we will also reduce our profit potential but a win is a win.
I think it was The Law who was chagrined over the fact that soxfan did not lead him to a winning bet selection. Well, IMO, there is none. But any one you choose will hit 85%. I can't prove it. That's a guess. Maybe some of you math guys will give it a go. Just use some follow the shoe placement. I hope you guys can figure something like that out by now. Use NOR or Pitboss, whatever.
So the first thing you do, Law, is learn to recognize the nemesis. Should be pretty easy. That's when you got to switch to and stop, guess, another placement. In the meantime you use the stutter move to cut back the progression when a) you don't want to risk too many of the units you already won or b) you are really in trouble and you need to expand the prog from 12 to 13 or even 14 steps. Some of this MM will just bring you back to even or just cut your losses to a recoverable level. You'll have to decide when and where to do that. I'm not going to spoon feed you but here's an example.
You lose 11112 and are now down 6 units. So you flat bet the 2 once, twice, whatever and then go into the 3-4-6 etc. Once you get your back to back win you re-start. And you don't necessarily need a back to back. Maybe you win the 6 unit and just restart at 2 units. Hit the 6-2 then restart. You might be down a few units doing this but back to back should ocurr often enough to start grinding out some decent wins.
There should be plenty of shoes where you will just out and out win without risking a whole lot. Patience, discipline, build your bank. After all this IS GAMBLING - HELLO?
j
......not sure why my name is mentioned here........no idea who "Soxfan" is.......thought this thread was about Seth and his targetbettingblog. ???
I've read through his blog line by line, and applied the method exactly as he suggests...........and it still fails. :no:
The best way to assess progressions value starts here:
https://imspirit.wordpress.com/tag/bet-selection/
Then we should try to find some hints to disprove the conclusions made on that post.
That is, do exist some spots/events/situations where the above conclusions might be wrong or at least not totally true?
Do we really think that a 5, 6, 12 or 20 term progression could get the best of the random world?
As long as any opposite event will be placed into the -25 LIAR and +25 WIAR range (of course I'm just limiting the random world to a 5 sr deviation and we know such limits will be surpassed) we cannot win by any progression.
An " opposite event" could be B/P hands or singles/streaks or doubles/2+s or any subjective strategy and so on.
Sooner or later we'll lose (or win) close to 25 hands in a row and many proportional situations like 10 LIAR followed by one win and another 10-12 or more LIAR.
The only way to get a kind of control over the outcomes itlr, IMO, is finding opposite events having a lesser variance and, more importantly, to start the betting at a point far different from a zero point where everything can happen.
Surely everything can happen even after having made some adjustments but the sum of our selected wagers TEND to get better results.
But it takes time to do that.
And the word "bet selection" must be intended not as the times we want to bet, instead the situations we've chosen not to bet.
There are no good or bad opportunities to bet, there are just some statistical features working on it.
A single B or P hand or a single shoe is just an infinitesimal trait of the whole picture.
as.