+ Register

[soxfan]

I'm gonna pony up all of the w/l cluster result for ALL 30 shoe I buck up against this coming week, so cats can see how my style plays out. And yes, I do have some losing week so I will pony up the result good, bad or ugly without picking cherry, hey hey.

[Babu]

I'm gonna pony up all of the w/l cluster result for ALL 30 shoe I buck up against this coming week, so cats can see how my style plays out. And yes, I do have some losing week so I will pony up the result good, bad or ugly without picking cherry, hey hey.

If you can manage to capture two consecutive wins for each run, I would say this will work well.  I personally can't do it. 

I'm NOT saying you can't just because I couldn't or most people couldn't.  Good luck on the weekend. 

[soxfan]

If you can manage to capture two consecutive wins for each run, I would say this will work well.  I personally can't do it. 

I'm NOT saying you can't just because I couldn't or most people couldn't.  Good luck on the weekend.

In Beat the Casino book the Frank Barstow talk about an old timer who made a good living for 30 year just using the parlay style at the dice table, hey hey.

[goez]

Eagerly waiting for your reports, Soxfan.

[soxfan]

Well, cats, my week got off to the good start so, here it is, hey hey.

Session One

shoe 1: WWLWWLWWWWWLLLWLWLWWW +13 units gross profits

session total: +13 units gross profits

[goez]

A very impressive W/L clusters, pity did not come with shoes data and bet selections.

[ozon]

Your bet selection must be really special, I tried your MM with very different methods of bet selection and I've always been on the minus in the longrun

[soxfan]

Well, I'm a coupla days behind in my report so gonna pony up for you cats. The old adage is true, some day you get the bear and some day the bear gets you. And, I got clipped in my second session of this week, hey hey.

Session Two


early shoe: WLLWLWWLWLLLWLWLWWWLLLLLLLWLLWLLLL -96 unit CLIPPED!!!!



late shoe: WWWWLLLWWWWWWLWWWLLWWWWLWWWLLLLLWWWLLLWWLWWL +25 units gross profits



session total: -71 unit

[AsymBacGuy]

Hi soxfan!
I do not know about your bet selection criteria, but in the 12 shoes you presented so far if you would have wagered W after W just one time, stopping to bet if after a single W a L came, you would have reached a +6 profit just by flat betting before tax.

Of course this won't be the case everytime as it's almost impossible to win by flat betting alone.

No matter which is the strategy involved, the point is to try to reduce the variance on both W and L sides.

as.

 




   

[8OR9]

The problem with betting a W after a W and stopping when an L appears is that the
WLWLWLWL    sequence is very common regardless of the method you use.......also
the WLLWLLWLLWLL is unfortunately also very common.

Np free lunch in baccarat!

[AsymBacGuy]

The problem with betting a W after a W and stopping when an L appears is that the
WLWLWLWL    sequence is very common regardless of the method you use.......also
the WLLWLLWLLWLL is unfortunately also very common.

Np free lunch in baccarat!

You are perfectly right.

Of course in the same scenario you depicted trying to get two wins in a row would be an economical disaster.

Let's make a further step.

That is betting toward WW after a W only after a given WW.. series has already formed. 
Of course in a perfect 50/50 game we'll get no hints about those WW series...they will be perfectly symmetrically placed, thus WL... patterns will be equal to WW....patterns.
Wait. if we manage to wager B side, we know that itlr WW>WL by any means.
But what are the best situations to try to get those WW patterns? Or, and it's the same, to get WLW or WLLW situations?

as.

[soxfan]

Well cats. still grindin it out, hey hey.

Session Three

shoe 1: WLWLWWWLWLWLWWWLWWLLLLLWWWLWLWLLLWWWWWWWLLWLL +18units gross profits

shoe 2: WWWLWWWWLLWLLWLWLWWWWWLLWWWLLWW +16 units gross profits


session total: 34 units gross profits

[brokerny]

Sox, 1 unit = $100?

[soxfan]

Sox, 1 unit = $100?

My base unit is 25$, hey hey.

[Jimske]

I got no reason to post anymore but I do look in on occasion to see if anything catches my interest.  Usually not.  But since I've fooled with this 12 step and have played it I thought I'd opine.

The problem is the WR of 56%.  Now soxfan a pretty smart guy.  If he could get even close to such a win rate he would have realized a long time ago that flat bet would increase his $ and reduce his risk.  With the posted w/l registry flat bet $75.00 would suffice to increase his profits.  But he still uses the 12 step so one must assume that the W/R far less than this sample.  And therein lies the fly in the pie.

(Note: that any number of progressions would gain a profit with this w/l registry.)

Let's assume that itlr we accomplish a 50% registry.  That means the next 18 shoes would give us a 44% WR!  Now this is not say that one cannot achieve a win in a shoe with a 44% (or less) w/l registry.  In shoe 16 there was only a 42% WR but still won 13 units.  In shoe 9 where he got "clipped" the WR was 50%!  Nevertheless, the % w/l registry is going to correlate to the success or failure of this progression.

Stay with me here since I did run quite a lot of shoes using the 12 step and determined that a 90% + shoe WR is needed to gain a profit.  In the sample posted soxfan achieves a 95% shoe WR.  If one extrapolates to the above 44% w/l registry one comes up with a 78% shoe win rate.  In all the bet selections I tried (Pairs, XXYY, XY, SFC) I could only achieve an 80% shoe win rate.  IOW, OUCH!  The closer you get to the expected WR of 50% the greater chance of NOT achieving the 90%+ shoe WR.

If, in his sessions he would have lost just two more parlays his profit wiped and his shoe WR (3/18=84) 84%.  You need 90% shoe WR for this to work!

Conclusion: soxfan bet selection highly subjective and this sample is unusually better than normal.  Normally, "it's a grind baby"